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KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL REPUBLIK INDONESIA

Indonesia - The Worlds Next Economic Power

Chairul Tanjung
Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)

Indonesia Future Outlook

Key Economic Drivers

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Looking to the long term, Indonesia will become a high income country
PREPARATION ACCELERATION CONTINUATION

Indonesia becomes a high income country with GDP per capita USD 14,250-USD 15,500

$46,900 $38,600 $30,400

GDP Nominal per capita

$22,500

$14,900
$3,005 2010 $5,300 $9,000

2015

2020

2025
4,257
286

2030
6,793
302

2035
9,706
319

2040
12,989
336

2045
16,578
353
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GDP Nominal (US$ Billion) 711 1,335 2,416 Population (Million people) 237 253 269

Indonesias economic growth has far surpassed the projections of the Indonesia Forum Foundation
Projected GDP per capita - Indonesia Vision 2030
1992 2015
Lower Middle Income Country

2023
High Income Country

25,000

Upper Middle Income Country

22,500
20,000 18,000 15,000

Economic Projection 2011 - 2045 Indonesia Vision 2030

GDP per capita reached US$3,005 in 2010

14,900

12,449 10,000

9,000 5,300

7,231

5,000

3,005
1,660 2,359 0 1990 1995 2000 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
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3,923

Source: Indonesia Forum Foundation (Yayasan Indonesia Forum), team analysis

IMF projects Indonesia to achieve the second fastest growth amongst the worlds 18 largest economies during 2009-2015
GPD Nominal Growth (2009 2015)
Russia Indonesia China India Brazil South Korea Turkey USA Japan
4.1% 4.0% 10.0% 9.9% 12.4% 12.1% 11.7% 15.7% 14.5%

ASEAN (excl. Indonesia)

9.6%

Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011

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Indonesias economy will become more dominant in ASEAN and larger than several countries in Europe
Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal) (USD Billion)
CAGR 14.5%

Indonesias economy as % of ASEAN-6 ASEAN


(Total 11 Countries)

40% 38%

48% 46%

53% 52%

European Countries:

Spain
Netherlands

50%

60%

91%

91%

105%

165%

Source:International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011; Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 2045; Analisa Tim

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Indonesia Future Outlook

Key Economic Drivers

page 6

The increase of the productive population will fuel stable and rapid economic growth
Expected Population Pyramid (20002020)
Male Indonesia2000 100 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 55 00 Female Male Indonesia2020 100 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 55 00 Female

15 12 9 6 Population (in millions)

12

15

15 12 9 6 Population (in millions)

12

15

Total (million) Male (million) Female (million) Productive population (2055 years old)
Source: 2008 UNDP World Population Prospects

205 102

254 127 127 132 (52%)

102
99 (48%)

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Natural Resources, Infrastructure and Consumers will also drive economic growth
Economic growth, including key emerging markets driving demand Hard commodities, e.g. metals, oil, coal, etc. Soft commodities, e.g. rubber, palm oil, etc.

Natural Resources

Infrastructure

Continued development of infrastructure: transportation, energy, communications, water & waste, etc.

Consumer
Rise of Consumer Spending Power Based on 2010 GDP per capita (US$3,005), Indonesia has reached the critical threshold rapid growth in consumption, discretionary and luxury spending o o o o o Financial Services Automotive Retail Tourism etc.

(as well as supporting sectors such as industry and construction)


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This economic growth is also supported by conducive national conditions

Political Environment

Maturing democracy Regional autonomy Supportive regulations balanced open markets Strengthening institutions

Increasingly integrated networks

Regional improving efficiency of domestic production and distribution chains Global geographic position provides excellent access to India, China, Japan, etc.

Resilient Financial System

Government debt and foreign reserves at healthy levels Improving investment climate Indonesian banks performed well during global crisis

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Indonesia has entered the Golden Era of economic growth huge opportunities for businesses
Projection of Indonesias GDP Growth in 2025
(USD Billion)

4,257 3,546 711 2010 711 2025

Indonesian economy will grow 5-fold through 2025 The stable government combined with strong economic growth will provide great opportunities for all businesses Currently China already has 115 people in Fortune's list of World Billionaires, while Indonesia has only 14 people. By 2025, the number of Indonesian billionaires could surpass 115

Source: Masterplan Percepatan dan Perluasan Pembangunan Indonesia


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Closing

Indonesias is expected to continues its strong performance

This robust growth is driven by favorable demographics, strong natural resources and consumer sectors and developing infrastructure, as well as broad based geographic growth
Indonesia is moving forward to address challenges in funding, infrastructure, bureaucracy, human resources, and technology Indonesias economy is projected to grow 5-fold by 2025, thereby making Indonesia the worlds next economic power

page 11

Thank You

Chairul Tanjung
Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN)