Temperatures will rise 0.

2 degree Celsius per decade

Fear of calving from Ross Ice Shelf • Globally sea-levels rose 10-20 cm in the 20th century – 10X faster than the last 3000 years • 1 m rise = 1 billion people displaced .• Global Sea level rise: • Melting of Glaciers: – – – – – – – Thermal Expansion = 57% – Melting of glaciers = 28% – Melting at Antarctica and Greenland = 15% Alaska: 3 C rise in temp in the last 30 years Glaciers melting at alarming rate Contributed at least 9% of global sea-level rise Permafrost melting – decomposition of vegetation  rise in CO2 Kilimanjaro – 82% of the snow cap has melted Very rapid melting of glaciers in the Himalaya and in the Andes • If all the ice melted sea level will rise by 75m inundating 20% of the Earth’s land area. No Florida!! • Even a partial melting of Antarctica ice cap will raise sea level by 3 to 6m.

NASA image of Greenland Ice melting Low coastal areas lost 3X more ice due to melting and ice berg formation than high interiors .

Area of surface melting across the Greenland Ice Sheet. as inferred from satellite observations of the surface temperature. .

IPCC predicts mean sea level to be a meter (100 cm) or more higher than today’s at the end of the 21st century .

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Increased warming Assuming continued growth in world greenhouse gas emissions.Global Warming KEY FINDINGS (National Assessment Synthesis Team) 1. 2. The potential impacts of climate change will also vary widely across the nation. yet some regions will get drier. Heavy and extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent. Differing regional impacts Climate change will vary widely across the US. the climate models used in this Assessment project that temperatures in the US will rise 5-10ºF (3-6ºC) on average in the next 100 years. . Temperature increases will vary somewhat from one region to the next.

Floods and water quality are concerns in many regions. . Vulnerable ecosystems Ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the projected rate and magnitude of climate change. are likely to experience major species shifts or break up. are likely to disappear entirely. 4. such as forests of the Southeast. A few.3. The goods and services lost through the disappearance or fragmentation of certain ecosystems are likely to be costly or impossible to replace. with different nuances in each. Widespread water concerns Water is an issue in every region. Snowpack changes are especially important in the West. Pacific Northwest. while others. Drought is an important concern in every region. such as alpine meadows in the Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands. but the nature of the vulnerabilities varies. and Alaska.

In addition. Over the longer term. such as sugar maples moving north out of the US. Overall. Secure food supply At the national level. Falling prices and competitive pressures are very likely to stress some farmers. Near-term increase in forest growth Forest productivity is likely to increase over the next several decades in some areas as trees respond to higher carbon dioxide levels. 6. US crop productivity is very likely to increase over the next few decades. but the gains will not be uniform across the nation. droughts. insects. the agriculture sector is likely to be able to adapt to climate change. changes in larger-scale processes such as fire.5. . and disease will possibly decrease forest productivity. climate change will cause long-term shifts in forest species.

powerlines. and other infrastructure in climatically sensitive places.7. For some systems. roads. Increased damage in coastal and permafrost areas Climate change and the resulting rise in sea level are likely to exacerbate threats to buildings. such as low-lying coastlines and the permafrost regions of Alaska. bringing large. 8. such as air and water pollution and habitat destruction due to human development patterns. Other stresses magnified by climate change Climate change will very likely magnify the cumulative impacts of other stresses. the combined effects of climate change and other stresses are very likely to exceed a critical threshold. possibly irreversible impacts. such as coral reefs. .

9. 10. . and provide the public with useful information about adaptation strategies. Surprises expected It is very likely that some aspects and impacts of climate change will be totally unanticipated as complex systems respond to ongoing climate change in unforeseeable ways. Uncertainties remain Significant uncertainties remain in the science underlying climate-change impacts. Further research would improve understanding and predictive ability about societal and ecosystem impacts.

polar bears •Coral Reefs will be hard hit Green = Canadian model •More Forest fires – more Blue = Hadley model CO2. Illinois will have a climate like Missouri’s..g. it will have a climate like Oklahoma’s.•By 2030. •Resultant shift in ecological communities. loss of biodiversity Shift in Predictions from two models . agriculture patterns… •Up to 30% of land based animal and plant species might disappear •Hardest hit will be coldclimate-communities e. •By 2090.

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CH4. Japan • Six Greenhouse gases were targeted (CO2. Japan 6% The reduction will be done in a 5 year period between 2008-2012 Emission can be traded in global market Creation of carbon sinks like afforestation can be balanced against emission Developing countries to benefit from “clean” technology The protocol will be open for signature in March.Kyoto Protocol • Conference: Dec 1-11. 2005 US pulled out of it in 2001 187 countries around the world have signed and ratified the protocol. . NOx. USA. US: 7%. Entered into force: Feb 16. CFCsubstitutes) • Their emission to be reduced below 1990 levels as follows: – – – – – – – – EU: 8%. 1997 in Kyoto. 1998. under the leadership of President Bush has withdrawn from Kyoto Protocol stating it will ‘hurt US economy’ and has made no move to ratify it as of today. has to be ratified by countries producing 55% of the emissions: reached in 2004 after Russia signed it.

Participation in Kyoto Protocol as of June 2009 .

Where are we heading to? USA with 4% of world population produces 25% of CO2 .

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Halting emissions • California’ s Global Warming Solutions Act • Cut greenhouse gas emissions 25% by 2020 • 10 NE states launched the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in 2007 • cap-and-trade program for C emissions from power plants .

371 .Fig. 15-22. p.

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