SIMULATION

Simulation is the process of designing a model of real system

Conducting experiments with the model for the purpose of understanding the behavior for the operation of the system.

ADVANTAGES OF SIMULATION

It is straight forward and simple technique. Technique is very useful to analyze large and complex problem which are not amenable to the mathematical method. It is a descriptive model not normative. The experiment in a simulation run are performed on the model and not on the system itself. Model is based on managers perspective, it gives better utility decision. Simulation can be used to design the service system before its actual installation. A great amount of time saving can be achieved by the model.

DISADVANTAGES

Simulation model can be very costly and expensive. It is trial and error technique to produce different solutions in repeated runs. The simulation model needs to be examined and analyzed for decision making. It only creates the alternatives and not the answers or optimal solutions by itself. Each application of simulation is odhoc to larger extent.

TYPES OF SIMULATION

DETERMINISTIC MODEL: Where inputs and outputs variable have a definite functional relationship. STOCHASTIC MODEL: In this variables have the functional relationships given by the probability assumption. STATIC MODEL: Variability in times is not considered. DYNAMIC MODEL: Where models deal with variable time functions.

RANDOM NUMBER

A random variable is a real value function defined over a sample environment.

It is perceived to have an outcome of conceptual experimentation with reallife situation possibility.

Arithmetical Computation formula rn+ = p. rn-1 (modulo m) MID-SQUARE METHOD: In this we square a given number and select the mid figures of the square, it becomes the random number of the required digits.

i.e. (257) 2 =66049, we have 604 as first RN (604) 2 =36412, we use 641 as next

MONTE- CARLO SIMULATION

It is a narrow form of simulation, but includes probability factors guided by random sampling for probability of events. TECHNIQUES Setting up a probability distribution for variables. Assign an appropriate set of random numbers to represent value. Conduct the simulation experiment by random sampling. Repeat step 3 till required number of simulation runs have been generated. Design and implement the decision and maintain control.

PROBLEMS
1.

Let us take a case of a service station where customers arrive randomly. The arrival and service patterns have been tabulated. Work out the simulated pattern for service to help design the service facility.

Arrival Pattern of Customer

Time between Arrival (min)
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0

Frequency
2 6 10 25 20 14 10 7 4 2

Service Pattern
Service Time (min)
0.5

Frequency
12

1.0

21

1.5

36

2.0

19

2.5

3.0

Solution: Table for arrival patternTime between Frequency Arrivals (min)

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2 6 10 25 20 14 10 7 4 2

Cumulative Frequency
2 8 18 43 63 77 87 94 98 100

Cumulative Probability
0.02 0.08 0.18 0.43 0.63 0.77 0.87 0.94 0.98 1.00

Random Number
00-01 02-07 08-17 18-42 43-62 63-76 77-86 87-93 94-97 98-99

Table for service pattern

Service Time
0.5

Frequency
12

Cumulative Frequency
12

Cumulative Probability
0.12

Random Number
00-11

1.0

21

33

0.33

12-32

1.5

36

69

0.69

33-68

2.0

19

88

0.88

69-87

2.5

95

0.95

88-94

3.0

100

1.00

95-99

Imulated system
Arrivals Rando Time Number m betwee Number n Arrival
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 78 78 06 04 97 71 78 59 05 95 3.5 3.5 1.0 1.0 4.5 3.0 3.5 2.5 1.0 4.5

Time of Rando Service Service Service Arrival m Time Start Finish (min) Number
3.5 7.0 8.0 9.0 13.5 16.5 20.0 22.5 23.5 28.0 54 26 51 45 46 84 58 58 60 24 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 3.5 7.0 8.0 9.5 13.5 16.5 20.0 22.5 24.0 28.0 5.0 8.0 9.5 11.0 15.0 18.5 21.5 24.0 25.5 29.0

Total elapsed time = 29 min.

Waiting in arrival = 1.0 min.

Percentage waiting of customer = 1/29 100 = 3%

Idle time for service = 14.5/29100 = 50%

2.

The material manager of a firm wishes to determine the expected (mean) demand of particular item in stock the re-order lead time. This information is needed to determine how far in advance to reorder before the stock level is reduced to zero. However, both the lead time, in days, and the demand per day for the item are random variables, described by the probability distribution given below:

Lead time (days) 1 2

Probability

Demand per P5robability day (units) 1 2 0.1 0.

0.5 0.3

0.2

3
4

0.34
0.2

Manually simulate the problem for 30 orders, to estimate the demand during lead time.

Solution: Lets first work out the generation of random number for the lead time and demand data to ensure development of simulation model for the demand.
Demand Probability Cumulativ Random e Number Probability 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 00-09 10-39

1 2

3
4

0.4
0.2

0.8
1.0

40-79
80-99

Assuring the replenishment level as 4 units, we develop the simulation table for demand

Days

1I5niti al Invent ory 4 2

Rando Dema m No nd

End Invent ory 2 0

Rando Lead m No Time

Quanti ty Order 4

1 2

22 17

2 2

45

3
4 5 6

4
3 4 6

08
49 29 57

1
3 2 3

3
0 2 3

37 28 87

1 1 3

4 4 4

7
8 9 10

3
2 4 4

05
10 81 75

1
2 4 3

2
0 0 1

56 15 41

2 1 1

4 4 4

11
12 13 14

5
7 7 4

25
89 53 23

2
4 3 2

3
3 4 2

75
23

2
1

4
4

15

91

25

This table indicates when the order can be planned by the materials manager for 15 orders. Similarly, it can be extended for 30 orders.

THANK YOU