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Corporate interest rate at 4.98 percent Interbank interest rate: 3.96 percent
Between March 12 and April 19, the daily average of the corporate interest rate in domestic currency rose from 4.88 to 4.98 percent. The average corporate interest rate in foreign currency declined from 2.14 to 1.93 percent.
6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Apr 2010 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2011 Feb Mar Apr 19
Corporate prime
%
7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
Jan 2009
* As of 19.
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan 2010
Apr.
Jul.
Oct.
Jan 2011
Apr.*
December 2009 January 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December January 2011 February March April 19
1.24% 1.09% 1.21% 1.23% 1.22% 1.45% 1.62% 1.90% 2.38% 2.74% 2.94% 2.97% 2.98% 3.21% 3.37% 3.68% 3.96%
0.02 0.16 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.15 0.05 0.02 0.10 0.13 0.12 0.11
Monetary operations
Between April 13 and 19 the BCRP made the following monetary operations: i) Auctions of 175day to up to 364-day BCRP Certificates of Deposit for a daily average of S/. 40 million. The average rate on these operations, which reached a balance of S/. 1,200 million, was 4.84 percent; ii) Auctions of 1-day up to 3-day Term Deposits in domestic currency for a daily average of S/. 3,949 million at an average rate of 3.95 percent, which reached a balance of S/. 5,030 million; iii) Auctions of 90-day Readjustable Certificates of Deposit for a total of S/. 325 million with an average rate of 0.32 percent, reaching a balance of S/. 950 million; iv) foreign exchange operations through its Front Office for US$ 91 million; and v) overnight deposits for a total of S/. 6 million.
weekly report /
resumen informativo
Exchange rate: S/. 2.823 per US dollar
Between April 12 and 19, the average interbank ask price increased from S/. 2.809 to S/. 2.823, which represent a depreciation of the Nuevo Sol of 0.51 percent. The Central Bank intervened in the foreign exchange market selling US$ 91 million through its Front Office.
EXCHANGE RATE AND NET DOLLAR PURCHASE
(In millions of US$) Acum. 2007 Jan-Apr 2008 Jun-Dec 2008 Acum. 2008 Acum. 2009 Acum. 2007 - 2009 Acum. 2010 Acum. 2011, as of April 19
* Negative indicates sales in US$.
Net purchases
600
Net purchases
Exchange rate
400
2.7 2.6
2011-04-16 2011-04-19
-600
2007-12-03 2008-01-02 2008-02-01 2008-03-02 2008-04-01 2008-05-01 2008-05-31 2008-06-30 2008-07-30 2008-08-29 2008-09-28 2008-10-28 2008-11-27 2008-12-27 2009-01-26 2009-02-25 2009-03-27 2009-04-26 2009-05-26 2009-06-25 2009-07-25 2009-08-24 2009-09-23 2009-10-23 2009-11-22 2009-12-22 2010-01-21 2010-02-20 2010-03-22 2010-04-21 2010-05-21 2010-06-20 2010-07-20 2010-08-19 2010-09-18 2010-10-18 2010-11-17 2010-12-17 2011-01-16 2011-02-15 2011-03-17
Foreign exchange
BALANCE OF NET FORWARD PURCHASES OF FOREIGN CURRENCY (January 2009 - April 2011)
Millions of US$
Between April 12 and 18, banks balance of net forward purchases of foreign currency increased by US$ 221 million. So far this month, the balance of net forward purchases of FC accumulated a decline of US$ 274 million.
Millions of US dollar
weekly report /
resumen informativo
NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (Millions of US$)
46,777 44,105
31,196 27,689
33,135
Dec. 2001 Dec. 2002 Dec. 2003 Dec. 2004 Dec. 2005 Dec. 2006 Dec. 2007 Dec. 2008 Dec. 2009 Dec. 2010 Apr. 2011* * As of April 19.
International Markets
Country risk at 206 basis points
COUNTRY RISK INDICATORS
Basis points 800
Between April 12 and 19, the average country risk indicator, measured by the EMBIG Peru spread, rose from 170 to 206 basis points. With regard to the debt spread of the Latin America region, this spread rose by 16 basis points in a context of increased risk aversion explained by the higher inflation expectations.
710 620 530 440 350 260 170 80 Jan Mar May 2009 Jul EMBIG Peru
206
Sep
Jul
Sep
Apr 19
1,300
1,492
1,100
900
700 Jan Mar 2009 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 2010 May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2011 Apr 19
% change Apr 19, 2011 US$ 1,492 / troy oz. Weekly 2.2 Monthly 1.0 Annual 31.7
xi
weekly report /
resumen informativo
COPPER PRICE
(January 2009 - April 2011)
Between April 12 and 19, the price of copper dropped 4.0 percent to US$ 4.21 per pound. The drop in the price was due to the lower prospect of demand in China, the largest consumer of the metal, and the problems of sovereign debt in the US and Europe. Also, the lower price of copper was influenced by increasing inventories at major metal exchanges.
(cUS$/pound) 480
210
120 Jan Mar 2009 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 2010 May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2011 Apr 19
% change Apr 19, 2011 US$ 4.21 / pound Weekly -4.0 Monthly 3.2 Annual 21.2
ZINC PRICE
In the same period, the price of zinc decreased 6.1 percent to US$ 1.05 a pound. The fall was mainly associated to the increasing inflationary pressures in China, which reduced the prospect of demand for the base metal, and the increase in the level of inventories in the London Metal Exchange by 6.7 percent to 786 thousand MT.
105
Sep
May
Jul
Sep
Apr 19
% change Apr 19, 2011 US$ 1.05 / pound Weekly -6.1 Monthly 3.8 Annual -0.7
Between April 12 and 19, the price of WTI oil increased to US$ 108.2 per barrel (1.8 percent). Rising oil prices was in line with a report from the American Petroleum Institute that showed a drop in gasoline and distillate inventories in the US. And continued concerns about the conflict in Libya also gave support to oil prices.
120
95 108 70
45
20 Jan Mar 2009 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 2010 May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2011 Apr 19
% change Apr 19, 2011 US$ 108.2 / barrel Weekly 1.8 Monthly -0.2 Annual 32.8
xii
weekly report /
resumen informativo
US dollar appreciated against the euro
Between April 12 and 19, the dollar appreciated 1.0 percent against the euro. The European currency showed a downward trend against the dollar because of rumors that Greece is forced to restructure its debt and uncertainty about the support of Finland to the rescue of Portugal. Against the yen, the US dollar depreciated 1.2 percent during the week of analysis.
EVOLUTION OF THE EURO AND THE YEN
(January 2009 - April 2011)
(Yen/US$) 110 (US$/Euro) 1.55
100
1.45
90
1.43
1.35
80 Yen / US$ US$ / Euro 70 Jan Mar 2009 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 2010 May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2011 Apr 19 82.6
1.25
1.15
Level US dollar/Euro Yen/US dollar Apr 19, 2011 1.43 82.6 Weekly -1.0 -1.2
Between April 12 and 19, the 3-month Libor decreased from 0.28 to 0.27 percent, while the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 3.37 percent from 3.49 percent. During the week, the yield of US Treasury security fell due to lower inflation expectations in the US.
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Jan Mar 2009 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar 2010 May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2011 Apr 19 10 year US Treasury bond 3-month libor 0.27 3.27
% change Apr 19, 2011 3 months Libor US Treasuries 0.27 3.37 Weekly -1 -13 Monthly -4 20 Annual -3 -43
200
During the week (from March 12 to 19), both indices decreased 4.3 and 3.8 percent, respectively, affected mainly by the lower prices of commodities and the uncertainty around the presidential elections.
100
0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan 2009 2010 2011 Apr 12
3,000
As of: Apr 19, 2011 General Index Selective Index 18,999 26,180
% change compared to: Apr 12, 2011 Mar 31, 2011 -4.3 -3.8 -13.5 -12.7 Dec 31.10 -18.7 -18.3
Year-to-date, the General Index and the Selective Index of the Lima Stock Exchange have accumulated losses of 18.7 and 18.3 percent, respectively.
So far this month (at April 19), the General Index and the Selective Index of the Lima Stock Exchange (LSE) have fallen 13.2 and 12.7 percent, respectively.
300
Trading Volume General Index
24,000 21,000
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weekly report /
resumen informativo
Resumen de Indicadores Econmicos / Summary of Economic Indicators
2008 Dic RESERVAS INTERNACIONALES (Mills. US$) / INTERNATIONAL RESERVES Acum. 2009 Dic Acum. 2010 Mar Acum. Jun Acum. Set Acum. Dic Acum. Feb Acum. Mar Acum. 12 Abr. 13 Abr. 2011 14 Abr. 15 Abr. 18 Abr. 19 Abr. Abr Var.
Posicin de cambio / Net international position Reservas internacionales netas / Net international reserves Depsitos del sistema financiero en el BCRP / Financial system deposits at BCRP Empresas bancarias / Banks Banco de la Nacin / Banco de la Nacin Resto de instituciones financieras / Other financial institutions Depsitos del sector pblico en el BCRP / Public sector deposits at BCRP *
OPERACIONES CAMBIARIAS BCR (Mill. US$) / BCRP FOREIGN OPERATIONS
33 313 47 164 9 478 8 747 591 140 4 391 1 0 0 0 1 2,807 2,805 2,811 2,810 2,809 2,807 2,808
33 307 47 147 9 467 8 738 595 134 4 391 0 0 0 0 0 2,814 2,812 2,818 2,820 2,816 2,814 2,815
33 248 47 121 9 496 8 765 596 134 4 392 -91 -91 0 0 0 2,822 2,822 2,829 2,822 2,824 2,822 2,822
33 256 46 857 9 265 8 526 609 130 4 350 0 0 0 0 0 2,822 2,824 2,822 2,823 2,824 2,822 2,824
33 195 46 777 9 235 8 487 611 137 4 349 0 0 0 0 0 2,822 2,823 2,824 2,823 2,823 2,822 2,823 0 0 0 0 0 2,822 2,822 2,824 2,824 2,823 2,822 2,823
Origen externo de la emisin primaria / External origin of monetary base Compras netas en Mesa de Negociacin / Net purchases of foreign currency Operaciones swaps netas / Net swap operations Compras con compromiso de recompras en ME (neto) / Net swaps auctions in FC Operaciones con el Sector Pblico / Public sector
TIPO DE CAMBIO (S/. por US$) / EXCHANGE RATE
-331 -289 0 -10 -33 Prom. 3,113 3,117 3,115 3,117 3,116 3,113 3,115 99,4
956 956 0 0 0 Prom. 2,839 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,840 2,838 2,840 96,1
536 526 0 0 0 Prom. 2,838 2,840 2,839 2,838 2,839 2,837 2,839 94,1
1 887 1 914 0 0 0 Prom. 2,790 2,792 2,791 2,792 2,791 2,790 2,791 95,7
412 497 0 0 -25 Prom. 2,770 2,772 2,771 2,771 2,771 2,770 2,771 97,7
-301 0 0 0 0 Acum. 2,779 2,780 2,780 2,780 2,780 2,779 2,780 98,0
-204 -91 0 0 -59 Acum. 2,811 2,812 2,813 2,813 2,813 2,811 2,812
Compra interbancario/Interbank Promedio / Average Apertura / Opening Venta Interbancario Medioda / Midday Interbank Ask Cierre / Close Promedio / Average Sistema Bancario (SBS) Compra / Bid Banking System Venta / Ask ndice de tipo de cambio real (2001 = 100) / Real exchange rate Index (2001 = 100)
INDICADORES MONETARIOS / MONETARY INDICATORS
Moneda nacional / Domestic currency Emisin Primaria 11,8 (Var. % mensual) / (% monthly change) Monetary base 25,5 (Var. % ltimos 12 meses) / (% 12-month change) Oferta monetaria 2,9 (Var. % mensual) / (% monthly change) Money Supply 26,5 (Var. % ltimos 12 meses) / (% 12-month change) Crdito sector privado 2,6 (Var. % mensual) / (% monthly change) Crdit to the private sector (Var. % ltimos 12 meses) / (% 12-month change) 46,4 TOSE saldo fin de perodo (Var.% acum. en el mes) / TOSE balance (% change) 0,8 Supervit de encaje promedio (% respecto al TOSE) / Average reserve surplus (% of TOSE) 1,0 Cuenta corriente de los bancos (saldo mill. S/.) / Banks' current account (balance) 1 779 Crditos por regulacin monetaria (millones de S/.) / Rediscounts (Millions of S/.) 0 Depsitos pblicos en el BCRP (millones S/.) / Public sector deposits at the BCRP (Mills.S/.) 23 568 Certificados de Depsito BCRP (saldo Mill.S/.) / CDBCRP balance (Millions of S/.) 7 721 Subasta de Depsitos a Plazo (saldo Mill S/.) / Time Deposits Auctions (Millions of S/.)** 0 CDBCRP con Negociacin Restringida (Saldo Mill S/.) / CDBCRP-NR balance (Millions of S/.) 6 483 CDBCRP-MN con Tasa Variable (CDV BCRP) (Saldo Mill S/.) / CDVBCRP- balance (Millions of S/.) *** CD Liquidables en Dlares del BCRP(Saldo Mill S/.) / CDLD BCRP- balance (Millions of S/.) *** CD Reajustables BCRP (saldo Mill.S/.) / CDRBCRP balance (Millions of S/.) 3 990 Operaciones de reporte (saldo Mill. S/.) / repos (Balance millions of S/.) 5 412 TAMN / Average lending rates in domestic currency 23,04 Prstamos hasta 360 das / Loans up to 360 days **** 15,25 Interbancaria / Interbank 6,54 Preferencial corporativa a 90 das / Corporate Prime 7,51 Operaciones de reporte con CDBCRP / CDBCRP repos 6,96 Crditos por regulacin monetaria / Rediscounts ***** 7,25 Tasa de inters (%) Del saldo de CDBCRP / CDBCRP balance 5,87 Del saldo de depsitos a Plazo / Time Deposits s.m. Del saldo de CDBCRP-NR / CDBCRP-NR balance 7,27 Del saldo de CDLD BCRP / CDLD BCRP- balance Spread del saldo del CDV BCRP - MN / Spread CDV BCRP Moneda extranjera / foreign currency Crdito sector privado (Var. % mensual) / (% monthly change) 0,1 Crdit to the private sector (Var. % ltimos 12 meses) / (% 12-month change) 16,7 TOSE saldo fin de perodo (Var.% acum. en el mes) / TOSE balance (% change) -1,1 Supervit de encaje promedio (% respecto al TOSE) / Average reserve surplus (% of TOSE) 1,0 Crditos por regulacin monetaria (millones de US dlares) / Rediscounts 0 TAMEX / Average lending rates in foreign currency 10,55 Tasa de inters (%) Prstamos hasta 360 das / Loans up to 360 days **** 9,86 Interest rates (%) Interbancaria / Interbank 1,01 Preferencial corporativa a 90 das / Corporate Prime 5,09 Crditos por regulacin monetaria / Rediscounts ****** s.m. Compras con compromiso de recompras en ME (neto) s.m.
INDICADORES BURSTILES / STOCK MARKET INDICES Acum.
13,1 5,5 5,3 15,0 0,7 17,6 -0,6 0,1 1 202 0 21 006 14 121 0 0
3,2 16,3 3,3 24,0 1,7 16,3 3,4 0,1 1 450 0 22 224 21 753 0 0
2,5 20,9 1,8 26,0 2,0 20,3 1,2 0,1 352 0 27 823 17 570 0 0
0,1 26,5 0,5 28,9 0,7 20,4 -0,8 0,0 2 331 0 28 888 29 768 0 0
22,1 45,3 5,4 30,1 1,9 20,8 1,2 0,1 4 892 0 26 726 30 20 788 0 3 196 450 0 0 18,74 14,20 2,98 3,63 s.m. 3,80 3,90 3,04 s.m. 3,12 0,09 2,3 14,1 4,6 0,5 0 8,55 6,37 1,21 2,12 s.m. s.m.
Acum.
-0,6 39,1 1,2 27,4 1,4 21,1 2,3 0,0 4 890 0 30 387 490 15 453 0 10 056 991 0 0 18,58 13,45 3,39 4,19 s.m. 4,30 3,90 3,46 s.m. 3,27 0,25 2,0 16,6 7,0 0,3 0 8,34 6,26 2,79 2,63 s.m. s.m.
Acum.
-1,4 32,9
0,3 0,0 5 129 0 32 772 990 12 377 0 10 856 150 300 0 18,65 13,54 3,68 4,46 s.m. 4,55 4,09 3,75 s.m. 3,31 0,24
-0,6 3,8 4 610 0 34 483 1 120 7 430 0 10 856 0 300 0 18,55 13,48 4,00 4,88 s.m. 4,80 4,16 3,87 s.m. s.m. 0,24
-1,2 3,4 4 423 0 35 152 1 120 7 130 0 10 856 0 600 0 18,53 13,40 4,00 4,88 s.m. 4,80 4,16 3,86 s.m. s.m. 0,24
-2,1 3,1 4 335 0 35 528 1 150 6 130 0 10 856 0 950 0 18,51 13,31 3,99 4,98 s.m. 4,80 4,18 3,89 s.m. s.m. 0,24
-2,0 2,8 4 415 0 35 546 1 150 5 930 0 10 856 0 950 0 18,50 13,29 4,00 4,98 s.m. 4,80 4,18 3,92 s.m. s.m. 0,24
5 535 0 35 554 1 150 4 677 0 10 856 0 950 0 18,45 n.d. 4,00 4,98 s.m. 4,80 4,18 3,97 s.m. s.m. 0,24
4 307 0 n.d. 1 200 5 030 0 10 856 0 950 0 18,47 n.d. 4,00 4,98 s.m. 4,80 4,21 3,98 s.m. s.m. 0,24
1,3 0,8 -0,5 0,5 0 8,62 6,45 0,20 1,10 s.m. s.m.
Acum.
1,9 7,3 0,9 0,5 0 8,27 6,00 0,38 1,32 s.m. s.m.
Acum.
0,9 11,7 3,9 0,3 0 8,03 5,82 0,42 1,66 s.m. s.m.
Acum.
-0,7 12,5 -3,7 0,7 0 8,72 6,43 0,95 2,63 s.m. s.m.
Acum.
-0,9 4,5 0 8,20 6,13 0,27 2,14 s.m. s.m. -3,6 -3,6 145,1
-0,6 4,3 0 8,18 6,10 0,25 2,14 s.m. s.m. -6,2 -5,1 214,6
-0,8 4,3 0 8,17 6,10 0,22 1,93 s.m. s.m. 0,6 0,2 321,8
-0,5 4,0 0 8,18 6,11 0,22 1,93 s.m. s.m. 3,4 2,9 627,7
Acum.
ndice General Burstil (Var. %) / General Index (% change) ndice Selectivo Burstil (Var. %) / Blue Chip Index (% change) Monto negociado en acciones (Mill. S/.) - Prom. Diario / Trading volume -Average daily (Mill. of
INFLACIN (%) / INFLATION (%)
-4,8 -4,8 29,2 0,36 6,65 -1 467 5 230 6 718 37 1 948 1 911 4,7
Prom.
-0,8 -2,7 73,5 0,32 0,25 -4 093 5 347 9 451 936 2 942 2 006 4,9
Prom.
8,1 5,1 28,5 0,28 0,76 1 428 6 744 5 344 443 2 830 2 387 8,8
Prom.
-3,5 -4,0 20,9 0,25 1,64 521 5 647 5 136 813 3 107 2 294 11,9
Prom.
17,9 14,2 45,4 -0,03 2,37 222 5 897 5 702 604 3 302 2 698 10,3
Prom.
11,5 10,0 105,4 0,18 2,08 -3 285 6 069 9 374 1 027 3 713 2 686 8,9
Prom.
-0,2 -0,7 67,7 0,38 2,23 1 440 6 101 4 664 766 3 325 2 558 8,5
Prom.
Resultado primario / Primary balance Ingresos corrientes / Current revenue Gastos no financieros / Non-financial expenditure
COMERCIO EXTERIOR (Mills. US$) / FOREIGN TRADE (Mills. of US$)
Variac. % respecto al mismo mes del ao anterior / Annual rate of growth (12 months)
COTIZACIONES INTERNACIONALES / INTERNATIONAL QUOTATIONS
Prom.
Prom.
LIBOR a tres meses (%) / LIBOR 3-month (%) 1,79 0,25 0,27 0,54 0,29 0,30 0,31 0,31 0,28 0,28 0,28 0,27 0,27 0,27 Dow Jones (Var %) / (% change) -0,60 1,97 5,15 -3,58 7,72 5,12 2,81 0,76 -0,95 0,06 0,12 0,46 -1,14 0,53 Rendimiento de los U.S. Treasuries (10 aos) / U.S. Treasuries yield (10 years) 2,39 3,56 3,72 3,21 2,64 3,27 3,56 3,40 3,49 3,46 3,50 3,41 3,38 3,36 Stripped spread del EMBIG PER (pbs) / EMBIG PERU stripped spread (basis points ) 524 180 158 206 167 157 146 157 170 184 193 202 203 206 * Incluye depsitos de Promcepri, Fondo de Estabilizacin Fiscal (FEF), Cofide, fondos administrados por la ONP; y otros depsitos del MEF. El detalle se presenta en el cuadro No.24 de la Nota Semanal. ** A partir del 18 de enero de 2008, el BCRP utiliza los depsitos a plazo en moneda nacional como instrumento monetario. *** A partir del a partir del 6 de octubre de 2010, el BCRP utiliza Certificado de Depsito en Moneda Nacional con Tasa de Inters Variable (CDV BCRP) y CD Liquidables en Dlares (CDLDBCRP) como instrumentos monetarios. **** Las empresas reportan a la SBS informacin ms segmentada de las tasas de inters. Estos cambios introducidos por la SBS al reporte de tasas activas (Res. SBS N 11356-2008; Oficio Mltiple N 24719-2010-SBS) son a partir de julio de 2010. ***** A partir del 8 de abril de 2011, esta tasa subi a 4,80%. ****** Las tasas de inters para los crditos de regulacin monetaria en dlares sern a la tasa Libor a un mes ms un punto porcentual. Fuente: BCRP, INEI, Banco de la Nacin, BVL, Sunat, SBS, Reuters y Bloomberg. Elaboracin: Departamento de Publicaciones Econmicas.
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