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Crompton Greaves
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT 4QFY12
3,077 213.2 6.9
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy)
5.8 (42.9) (590)bp (60.1)
`106 `133
12 months
4QFY11
2,908 373.1 12.8 251.4
3QFY12
3,028 182.7 6.0 77.2
% chg (qoq)
1.6 16.7 89.5 30.0
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Capital Goods 6,803 1.2 276/102 457,253 2.0 16,218 4,920 CROM.BO CRG@IN
Crompton Greaves (CG) reported a weak performance for 4QFY2012, which was below our estimates and streets expectations. Although the company posted decent numbers on the top-line front, the companys margin dragged its earnings. Consolidated order intake for 4QFY2012 stood at `2,896cr, yoy jump of 12%, led by the power system segment. Order book at the end of 4QFY2012 stood at `8,366cr. We revise our FY2013E and FY2014E estimates to factor in the decline in profitability; however, we believe margin pressure has already been factored in the stock price. Given the recent underperformance, the stock is currently trading at attractive valuation on our estimates. We continue to maintain our Buy view on the stock. Weakness continues: For 4QFY2012, CGs top line grew by 5.8% yoy to `3,077cr, which was slightly lower than our estimate. The companys EBITDA margin witnessed a steep contraction of ~590bp yoy to 6.9%, below our expectation, and was driven by high raw-material costs. Led by margin dip, reported PAT plunged by 60.1% yoy to `100.3cr, 33.3% below our (below street) expectation of `150.3cr. Outlook and valuation: Management guided for sales growth of 12-14%, supported by healthy order backlog along with EBITDAM in the range of 8-9%. In-line with managements guidance, we build in conservative assumption (8.0% and 8.4% EBITDAM for FY2013 and FY2014, respectively, much below the historical average of 12.0-13.0%). Given the attractive valuations (stock at ~39% discount to its five-year trading PE multiple), we maintain our positive stance on the company. The pessimism surrounding the companys profitability has clearly been factored in the stock price, given the PE multiple de-rating and underperformance of the stock. We have assigned a multiple of 14.0 to arrive at a target price of `133, implying an upside of 25.1% from current levels. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Operating Income % chg Adj. PAT % chg EBITDA (%) EPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 41.7 28.9 20.3 9.1
3m (9.5) (29.0)
FY2011
10,005 9.5 927 12.4 13.4 14.4 7.3 2.1 33.8 34.3 0.7 4.9
FY2012
11,249 12.4 374 (59.7) 7.1 5.8 18.2 1.9 11.0 12.8 0.7 9.4
FY2013E
12,451 10.7 512 22.5 7.9 8.0 13.3 1.8 13.9 14.5 0.6 7.6
FY2014E
14,265 14.6 607 18.6 8.3 9.5 11.2 1.6 14.9 17.0 0.5 6.0
Rahul Kaul
022-39357800 Ext:6817 Rahul.kaul@angelbroking.com
4QFY12 3,077 3,077 27 2,081 68.5 394 12.8 363 11.8 2,864 213 6.9 14 64 0 136 4.4 40 29.2 100 3.3 0 100 1.6
4QFY11 2,908 2,908 15 1,882 65.2 272 9.4 366 12.6 2,535 373 12.8 7 60 47 353 12.1 68 19.4 251 8.6 38 290 3.9
% chg (yoy) 5.8 5.8 10.5 3.2 44.8 (0.7) 13.0 (42.9) (590) 93.1 7.1 (99.3) (61.6) (42.0) (60.1)
3QFY12 3,028 3,028 406 1,723 70.3 393 13.0 323 10.7 2,845 1,827 6.0 11 63 15 124 4.1 49 39.2 77.2 2.5 0
% chg (qoq) 1.6 1.6 20.7 0.2 12.5 0.7 (88.3) 24.1 1.9 (98.0) 9.2 (18.6) 30.0
FY2012 11,249 11,249 (24) 7,709 68.3 1,466 13.0 1,294 16.8 10,445 804 7.1 46 260 52 550 4.9 182 33.1 374 3.3 -
FY2011 10,005 10,005 (96) 6,364 62.7 1,181 11.8 1,211 19.0 8,661 1,344 13.4 21 194 100 1229 12.3 310 25.2 889 8.9 38 927 14
% chg (yoy) 12.4 12.4 21.1 24.1 6.8 20.6 (40.2) 121.4 34.3 (47.6) (55.3) (41.2) (58.0)
(65.4) (60.1)
77 1.2
30.0 30.0
374 6
(59.7) (58.0)
Actual
3,077 213.2 13.9 39.6 100.3
Estimates
3,170 253.6 12.1 58.5 150.3
Var. (%)
(2.9) (15.9) 14.9 (32.2) (33.3)
4QFY12
4QFY11
% chg (yoy)
3QFY12
% chg (qoq)
FY2012
FY2011
% chg (yoy)
4QFY12
4QFY11
% chg (yoy)
3QFY11
% chg (qoq)
FY2012
FY2011
% chg (yoy)
witnessed
in
domestic
and
CG witnessed weakness in the power system segment in 4QFY2012, as was the case during the first nine months of the year. On a consolidated basis, the power segment posted 2.3% yoy growth to `1,968cr. On the EBIT margin front, the company is facing issues due to increased raw-material cost, which led to a dip in profitability. The segments EBIT margin declined by 1,061bp on a yoy basis to 2.7%. EBIT margin of the international business continued to reel under pressure, as it posted losses on the EBIT level.
Consumer products (domestic business) Profitability marred by slowdown in economy and high interest rates
For the consumer segment, the companys revenue grew by 10.1% yoy for the quarter to `607cr. The companys margin continued to decline as expected. EBIT margin for the quarter came in at 12.2% against 14.3% in 4QFY2011.
Industrial systems
In the industrial system segment, overall consolidated growth stood at of 15.1% to `500cr. Domestic revenue decreased by 2.1% to `393cr. On the EBIT margin front, the company is facing issues due to heightened competition, pricing pressure and slowdown in industrial capex leading to a dip in profitability. The segments EBIT margin declined by 409bp on a yoy basis to 10.8% during the quarter. Order book: Consolidated order intake for 4QFY2012 stood at `2,896cr, jump of 12% yoy, led by the power system segment, which saw an increase of 13% yoy compared to an increase of 9% for the industrial segment. Order book at the end of 4QFY2012 stood at `8,366cr.
3,401
2,896
2,732
2,564
2,588
7,500 6,000
2,029
2,052
(` cr)
1,704
2,260
(` cr)
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
3QFY10
6,078
4QFY10
6,400
1QFY11
6,802
2QFY11
3QFY11
7,017
4QFY11
1QFY12
7,088
2QFY12
7,108
9,000
4QFY12
8,366
Investment concerns
Business under stress: We believe CG's power and industrial segments are facing several headwinds on the international and domestic business fronts, as reflected in the pressure witnessed in its recent quarterly numbers, mainly due to increasing competitive pressures (taking a toll on profitability) and general slowdown faced by economies (impeding the revenue visibility). To put things in perspective, CG has a sizeable exposure in the currently troubled geographies of Europe (17% of FY2011 revenue) and North America (11.5% of FY2011 revenue). Likewise, CG's consumer segment, which had expanded admirably in the past, is currently facing the brunt of inflationary pressures. Therefore, we believe CG's near-to-medium term performance would be under pressure. Outlook and valuation Management guided for sales growth to remain at 12-14%, supported by healthy order backlog along with EBITDAM in the range of 8-9%. In-line with managements guidance, we build in conservative assumption (8.0% and 8.4% EBITDAM for FY2013 and FY2014, respectively, much below the historical average of 12.0-13.0%). Given the attractive valuations (stock at ~39% discount to its five-year trading PE multiple), we maintain our positive stance on the company. The pessimism surrounding the companys profitability has clearly been factored in the stock price, given the PE multiple de-rating and underperformance of the stock. We have assigned a multiple of 14.0 to arrive at a target price of `133, implying an upside of 25.1% from current levels.
Change in estimates
We have revised our financial estimates based on the current results, the overall sector outlook as well as managements guidance. We have marginally tweaked our top-line estimates with decent order inflow. On the margin front, we remain conservative and expect the companys margin to remain under pressure.
Earlier estimates
12,936 1,238 9.6 696 10.9
Revised estimates
12,451 982 7.9 512 8.0
Earlier estimates
14,101 1,405 10.0 753 11.7
Revised estimates
14,265 1,190 8.3 607 9.5
Var. (%)
1.2 (15.4) (163) (19.3) (19.3)
(`)
160 80 0
Sep-07
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
Sep-11
6x
12x
18x
24x
Upside/
P/BV(x)
P/E(x)
FY2012-14E
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
May-12
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
FY2009 FY2010
867 127 111 (74) (305) 727 (363) (74) 74 (362) 0.0 (124) 86 166 (210) 321 244 566 1,189 155 (13) (110) (365) 857 (168) (386) 110 (444) 55.0 (217) 95 (52) (257) 103 566 669
FY2014E
900 322 (152) (80) (292) 698 (320) 0 80 (240) 0.0 0 165 (165) 293 31 323
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets OB/Sales Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis(%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Pre-tax) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) (X) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to Equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage
0.0 0.0 10.8 (0.2) (0.4) 26.2 (0.1) (0.2) 32.7 0.2 0.9 11.7 0.2 0.6 14.4 0.1 0.3 18.2 3.4 45 79 111 19 3.4 43 84 122 16 3.1 42 86 118 23 2.7 49 91 113 39 2.6 55 93 115 48 2.8 51 89 109 46 41.9 55.5 44.8 43.7 66.9 44.4 34.3 47.6 33.8 12.8 14.8 11.0 14.5 15.6 13.9 17.0 18.7 14.9 10.0 64.9 5.6 55.9 36.3 6.7 0.2 43.6 12.3 69.3 5.7 70.0 48.5 4.9 (0.1) 43.6 11.5 74.8 4.4 50.7 37.9 5.4 (0.1) 33.8 4.8 66.9 3.2 15.5 10.4 4.3 0.1 10.8 5.5 72.0 2.9 16.3 11.7 3.7 0.2 13.2 6.1 67.5 3.2 19.6 13.2 3.7 0.1 14.4 15.3 15.3 18.6 2.0 49.5 12.9 12.9 15.3 2.2 38.8 14.4 14.4 17.5 2.2 50.8 5.8 5.8 9.9 2.2 54.8 8.0 8.0 12.6 2.2 60.2 9.5 9.5 14.5 2.2 67.1 6.9 5.7 2.1 1.9 0.8 6.9 3.0 0.8 8.2 6.9 2.7 2.1 0.7 5.0 2.2 0.7 7.3 6.1 2.1 2.1 0.7 4.9 1.7 0.7 18.2 10.7 1.9 2.1 0.7 9.4 1.6 0.7 13.3 8.4 1.8 2.1 0.6 7.6 1.5 0.7 11.2 7.3 1.6 2.1 0.5 6.0 1.3 0.0
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Crompton Greaves No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12