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Backgrounder: What to know about the upcoming P5+1 & Iran summit
Bryan Gold
Updated: 23 May 2012
he Iranian nuclear program is one of the most polarizing issues facing the international community since its public disclosure in 2002. Over the past decade, the program has significantly expanded and tensions over it have continually increased. However, over the past month there have been a series of exciting developments and the most promising summit in years is scheduled to take place tomorrow between the P5+1 nations and Iran to discuss the enduring stalemate over the Iranian nuclear program.
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n April 27th, the Obama administration signaled a major shift in its position on Uranium enrichment.11 Rather than demanding Iran halt all of its enrichment, the US may allow Iran to enrich up to 5% purity, the upper end for most civilian uses, in return for unrestricted inspections and strict oversight. While the Obama administration has signaled its willingness to allow Iran to keep its enrichment program, the administration has been clear on its opposition to discussing sanctions relief at the upcoming talks before concrete steps have been taken by Iran on its nuclear program. This runs counter to the stated objectives of Iranian negotiators who have said that sanctions relief is one of their top priorities.12
On May 8th, both the US and EU pressed Iran to comply with its obligations to the IAEA. Robert Wood, the USs acting representative to the IAEA, spoke at the NPT preparatory committee meeting and pushed for Iran to take urgent practical steps to build confidence.13
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In the same meeting the EU representative Gyorgyi Martin Zanathy, declared that Iran must suspend its enrichment activities and heavy-water-related projects, including research and development.14 However, Iran has repeatedly stated in the past that it will not give up its right to nuclear enrichment, nor is it bound to under the regulations of the NPT.
Economic Pressure
n May 13th, more evidence that the Iranian economy is under stress came to light as it was reported that Iran has been routinely shutting off satellite tracking systems on its sea-bound oil tankers for more than a month in an effort to avoid sanctions now hitting the country.15
Sanctions have severely hurt the value of the Iranian Rial making it increasingly difficult to pay for materials for the nuclear program, and, more broadly, it puts pressure on the leadership, said David Cohen, Treasury Departments undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.
he United States aims for the talks are the same as the last conference in Istanbul. President Obama and the P5+1 want to de-fang the Iranian nuclear program and assure that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons. The President has also publicly committed to preventing Iran from producing a nuclear weapon, rather than contain Iran. Administration officials have stood by their demands unveiled at the last conference in Istanbul on April 13th; starting with closing and dismantling of the Fordow enrichment facility located under a mountain near the city of Qom, a permanent halt in the production of 20% enriched Uranium, and the removal of Irans current stockpile of 20% enriched material. Fordow began operations in January of 2012 and is estimated to hold approximately 3,000 centrifuges enriching Uranium up to 20%. The Fordow facilitys location in a hardened mountainside tunnel makes it difficult to destroy by aerial bombardment. The Administration is also calling for the halt in the production of 20% enriched Uranium and the removal of Irans 20% stockpile. Iran currently holds 100 kg of 20% enriched Uranium and has announced plans to increase its production in coming months but claims it will cease production of 20% Uranium as soon as its domestic needs are met.22
While the Administration, in concert with the other members of the P5+1, are prepared to allow Iran to possess a nuclear power program for civilian power generation and medical isotope production, Iran must first prove that it does not have a nuclear weapons program. To do so, Administration representatives have stated Iran must allow IAEA inspectors to visit all Iranian nuclear sites, including the Parchin facility. The meetings, in the words of Secretary of State Clinton, will not be an open-ended session, that allows the Iranians to stall for time while building their nuclear program.23 Most experts agree that the meeting will not bring a swift conclusion to the issue but will hopefully build confidence or set a framework for an eventual agreement.
the American side. Iran is unwilling to completely abandon its enrichment program even if that entails a nuclear fuel swap agreement. Irans demands in this conference will be similar to previous negotiations: the acknowledgement of Irans right to enrichment and its right to a nuclear program under the Nuclear NonProliferation Treaty. It will also seek security guarantees from the United States and the termination of American-supported covert operations or support of Iranian militant groups.28 Lastly, Iran will demand the removal of all sanctions, U.S. or otherwise, instituted against the Government of Iran or any other Iranian entity.
Conclusion
ran and Supreme Leader Khamenei are not opposed to diplomacy with the West, but the United States must appreciate Irans domestic politics and security concerns as much as Iran must understand the United States domestic politics and security concerns. In the past month there have been a series of promising developments with the Iranian nuclear program and its situation. But at the core of the problem is crafting agreement that will satisfy all three parties: Iran, the United States, and Israel, all of which have vastly different threat perceptions and political challenges to consider. Reconciling these differences will be a monumentally difficult task. But next weeks meeting represents real development in this crisis and a step in the right direction. Hopefully, the talks scheduled for tomorrow kick-start a sustained dialogue.
Bryan Gold is an Adjunct Junior Fellow for defense and national security policy at the American Security Project.
Notes to Sources:
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D05EED91530F936A25757C0A9649D8B63&ref=nuclearprogram http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/world/middleeast/chances-of-iran-strike-receding-us-officials-say.html?_r=3&ref=globalhome&pagewanted=all http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/14/world/meast/iran-nuclear/index.html http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=266114 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/headlines/2012/04/israels-leaders-increasingly-isolated-on-iran/ http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/world/middleeast/yuval-diskin-criticizes-israel-government-on-iran-nuclear-threat.html?pagewanted=2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/world/middleeast/olmert-ex-premier-of-israel-assails-netanyahu-on-iran.html?ref=middleeast http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/26/world/middleeast/israeli-army-chief-says-he-believes-iran-wont-build-bomb.html?_r=2 http://news.yahoo.com/ex-iran-negotiator-historic-chance-nuke-talks-090217825.html
10. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-25/iran-considers-halting-nuclear-expansion-to-avert-eu-oil-embargo#p1 11. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/apr/27/world/la-fg-iran-nuclear-20120428 12. http://www.startribune.com/world/149852115.html 13. http://vienna.usmission.gov/120507prepcom.html 14. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/08/world/middleeast/united-states-and-europe-warn-iran-on-nuclear-talks.html?ref=nuclearprogram 15. http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/iran-unable-to-sell-oil-stores-it-on-tankers/2012/05/13/gIQAp0eUNU_story.html 16. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-14/iran-s-parchin-site-may-top-un-inspectors-meeting-agenda 17. http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2011/gov2011-65.pdf 18. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/22/world/middleeast/international-agency-resumes-talks-with-iran-on-nuclear-program. html?ref=nuclearprogram 19. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/18/world/middleeast/iran-oil-production-drop-seen.html?_r=1&ref=middleeast 20. http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/19/world/la-fg-iran-talks-20120519 21. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/23/world/middleeast/un-nuclear-monitor-strikes-deal-with-iran-reports-say.html?_r=1 22. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/08/world/middleeast/us-defines-its-demands-for-new-round-of-talks-with-iran.html?pagewanted=2 23. http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2012-04/04/c_131506082.htm 24. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/4301889.stm 25. http://www.scribd.com/doc/13250515/-Reading-Khamenei-The-World-View-of-Irans-Most-Powerful-Leader 26. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/10/world/middleeast/iran-hints-at-shift-in-advance-of-nuclear-talks.html 27. http://bostonglobe.com/news/world/2012/04/09/iran-offers-possible-nuclear-compromise/BapXVZCI157kEjqQz5PCsO/story.html 28. http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/newsdesk/2012/04/mek.html
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