Technical trend report from

trend
RESEARCH

17 January 2012

Gloom ends. . . Boom to follow !!!

Nifty (4873)
While the markets were bulldozed by negative news flows throughout the last year and brought many a stock to its knees, the behavior of the indices has thrown up a different picture. The nature of the decline in the indices has been rather dull (compare the crash of 2008 and you will understand what we mean). This was intriguing and also interesting. A selection of stocks were beaten down brutally while another selection did not budge at all. The net effect was that the overall market was a picture of protest but not of panic. We see seeds of a better future sown in this very behaviour of the market. In this report we have taken a purely technical view of the market. And we discovered some technical aspects which suggest that we could be faced with brighter times in 2012. The tunnel that was 2011 seems to be ending and a breath of fresh air and sunlight could be awaiting us in 2012. In fact, we are quite positive that 2012 will be a year of recovery and can cause a strong bounce back in many stocks, especially the ones that have been roughed up by the markets in 2011. Our view of the Nifty and the Mid cap index are presented here. We also have our own selection of stocks that we are positive about. The first pages are dedicated to the indices and our criteria of stock selection, followed by the stocks themselves.

Our key picks are highlighted here.

Name
BHEL JP Associate SBIN Sadanand Raje sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in +91-22-6618 6366 C Krishnamurthy krishnamurthy.c@pinc.co.in +91-22-6618 6747 L&T Tata Steel Tata Power DLF RCom

Current price * (Rs)

276 60 1830 1208 421 97 193 86

Outlook
Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish Bullish

Target price (Rs)

340-350 85-90 2200-2225 1500 510-520 115-120 260-265 120-122

Duration
4-5 months 3-4 months 3-5 months 3-5 months 3-4 months 4-5 months 5-6 months 3-5 months

PINC Technical reports are also available on Reuters and Bloomberg PINV <GO>

Index Watch

NIFTY

The trend of the Nifty after seeing the highs of around 6300 has been principally bearish. The following pointers stand out in this 13 month downtrend. Trend channel : The Nifty has firmly adhered to a trend channel from November, 2010. The obedience to this channel means that the upper line has been an area of headwind and the lower end of the channel has provided a cushion. At this current juncture, the Nifty is moving up from the lower end of the trend channel. Oversold Oscillator: An illustration from the chart clearly exemplifies that the oversold oscillators at the current juncture is a rare occurrence. Previous instances of such a similar episode has fructified into a medium term upmove that has sustained over a significant period (refer chart). Price and Time correction: It took Nifty about 21 months from March,2009 to rescale its earlier highs of January,2008. The retracement from November, 2009 has taken about 13 months which is about 61.8% (Fibonacci Number)of the time. Price wise, the Nifty has corrected about 50% of the complete upmove (refer chart). The factor of time and price corrections suggest that psychological indicators favour the bulls and a change of direction for the trend is almost near. Volumes: The volumes over the last year have also declined in line with the market. Historical evidence suggests that the current average volumes of the market in the recent past only suggests of despondency. Such behaviour is seen in the last leg of a bear trend/ capitulation. Comments and Conclusion : The reasons above indicate the possibility of trend reversal over the medium term. We believe the stage is set for the Nifty to advance towards 5400 - 5500. This target is likely to be achieved in the next 5-6 months.
sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366 2

Index Watch

CNX MIDCAP - FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF NIFTY

Similar to the Nifty, the MidCap Index almost re tested its highs of January, 2008 and has retraced thereafter in line with the Nifty. The Midcap Index has slightly underperformed the benchmarks post the highs made in November, 2010. Our Analysis A look at the Midcap Index from November, 2010 till now reveals the following Support of Multi Year Trendline: As can be illustrated from the chart, a trendline which has started from 2003 is providing support to Midcap Index. Historically, multi year trend lines have always had a lot of significance. Since, the Midcap Index has nearly tested this trend line, a reaction in the form of either a pull back or a sustainable recovery is only to be expected. Oversold Oscillator: The medium term charts reveal that the technical oscillators are firmly entrenched into the oversold (bear) territory. Comments and Conclusion: The reasons above clearly means that any further downsides for the Midcap Index are extremely bleak. Any surprises are most likely to be positive hereonwards. Considering that this index is close to a multi year support a strong response from the trend could be in the offing. The oversold technical oscillator should support such a rally. We expect the Midcap Index to rise towards 7500 or more in the next 56 months.

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Our Picks
Stocks HDFC HDFC Bank REC PFC IDFC IDBI State Bank Of India Larsen & Toubro BHEL ACC Ambuja JP Associate Voltas ITC Dabur Indian Hotels Lanco Infra GMR Infra Hindalco Tata Steel Tata Power PTC Reliance Power DLF UNITECH HDIL Reliance Communication Sector Banking and Finance Banking and Finance Banking and Finance Banking and Finance Banking and Finance Banking and Finance Banking and Finance Capital Goods Capital Goods Cement Cement Conglomerate Engineering FMCG FMCG Hotels Infrastructure Infrastructure Metals Metals Power Power Power Real Estate Real Estate Real Estate Telecom CMP 674 460 167 149 111 92 1830 1208 276 1105 151 60 86 209 96 62 14.95 28.60 132 421 97 46 86 193 24.30 71 86 Target 950-1000 525-640 220-225 190-195 142-145 115-120 2200-2225 1500 340-350 1300 172-175 85-90 105-115 235-240 115-120 80-84 20-22 38-40 170-172 510-520 115-120 62-65 125 260-265 38-40 110 120-122 Duration 5-6 months 5-6 months 4-6 months 4-5 months 3-5 months 3-4 months 3-5 months 3-5 months 4-5 months 4-5 months 3-5 months 3-4 months 4-5 months 3-4 months 3-5 months 3-4 months 3-4 months 4-5 months 3-5 months 3-4 months 4-5 months 4-5 months 4-5 months 5-6 months 4-5 months 4-6 months 3-5 months Pg. No. 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18

CRITIERIA FOR CHOOSING OUR PICKS

Oversold Oscillator : Stocks which are firmly in the oversold territory esp in the medium term charts have been given a signifcant weightage. Positive Divergence : Stocks which are not only oversold but also exhibiting strong positive divergence for several weeks and months. Moving Averages crossover : Identified stocks which are getting a positive crossover of important medium term moving averages. Market liquidity : We have considered only those stocks which are freely traded in the market with volumes with the least impact cost. Industry Representation : Considered those stocks which are heavyweights in their industry. While all major stocks have been considered in each of the industry segments, stocks which satisfactorily fulfill the above conditions have been chosen for this report.

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Stock Picks HDFC

Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 674 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 950-1000 Comments and Analysis : One of the stars amongst the best performing lot, this stock has seen a one way directional upmove from the lows of March,2009. It has hardly retraced since then and the move from November, 2010 has been sideways with largely a neutral bias. The subdued move essentially appears like a flag pattern and a breakout above the upper trend line of the channel can result in another leg of higher prices. A look at the technical indicators indicates a slight degree of positive divergence. The stock is still sustaining above an important medium term moving average signifying that its positive trend is still intact. Prospects : The appearance of a flag pattern along with positive technical indicator means that the stock can see a continuation of its ongoing uptrend. The implication of a breakout above the trend channel indicates a possible price target of 950 followed by 1000 which can be achieved in the next 5 - 6 months.

Expected time: (5-6 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code HDFC IN NSE Code HDFC BSE Code 500010

HDFC BANK
Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 460 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs525-640 Comments And Analysis: This star performing stock has seen a unidirectional move from the lows of March,2009. Inspite of the benchmarks retracing for the last year, this stock has moved sideways and has been within a trading range of 400 and 500. The stock is trading above an important medium term average and the uptrend of the stock is clearly intact. Prospects : The stock is trading within a trend channel. Given the positive structure of the trend, targets of 525 followed by 640 which is the measuring implication of the channel in the next 5-6 months. .

Expected time: (5-6 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code HDFCB IN NSE Code HDFCBANK BSE Code 500180

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Stock Picks REC

Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 167 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 220-225 Comments and Analysis : The stock has seen a steady decline in prices since October, 2010. A look at the technical oscillators indicate positive divergence appearing for the last few months. This suggests that the stock could see minimal downsides from current level and the odds for an upmove are quite high. Prospects : A sustainable uptrend could be commencing in the stock which can propel towards 220-225. We expect this target to be achieved in the next 4-6 months.

Expected time: (4-6 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code RECL IN NSE Code RECLTD BSE Code 532955

PFC
Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 149 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 190-195 Comments And Analysis : PFC has seen a steady decline in prices since last October,2010. The slippage in prices has been accompanied with a strong momentum. Its movement in the last few months however indicate that selling fatigue could now be emerging at lower levels. The medium term oversold indicators also confirm such a premise. Prospects : The momentum in the medium term is beginning to pick up. This development can lead the prices to rise steadily towards 190-195. This target can be achieved in the next 4-5 months.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code POWF IN NSE Code PFC BSE Code 532810

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Stock Picks IDFC

Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 111 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 142-145 Comments And Analysis : The stock has seen a steady decline in prices since November, 2010. This medium term downtrend has resulted in the momentum oscillators coming firmly into the oversold territory. Depressed prices over the last few months have resulted in the indicators also showing positive divergence. Prospects : if the short term positive sentiment turns positive the stock can easily move towards its 142-145 in the next 3-5 months..

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code IDFC IN NSE Code IDFC BSE Code 532659

IDBI
Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 92 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 115-120 Comments and Analysis : The stock has been southbound since November, 2010. This has resulted in the technical oscillators becoming deeply oversold. The current state of depressed prices coupled with oversold oscillator cannot sustain for long as can seen from the charts. Its recent move in the weekly charts indicates a bullish pattern. Prospects : The stock can see a significant rebound and can reach 115-120 in the next 3-4 months.

Expected time: (3-4 months)

Recommendation: BUY/Hold

Bloomberg Code IDBI IN NSE Code IDBI BSE Code 500116

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Stock Picks STATE BANK OF INDIA

Industry : Banking and Finance Price: CMP Rs 1830 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 2200-2225 Comments and Analysis : State Bank of India has been in a downtrend since the last one year. Accumulation pattern is visible on the short term charts suggesting that there could be minimal downsides from hereon. Also, its medium term technical oscillators are in the oversold territory implying that a sustainable trend reversal could be on the cards. Prospects : The chances of a trend change is quite high at the current juncture and can lead the prices up to 2200-2225 in 3-5 months. Bloomberg Code SBIN IN NSE Code SBIN BSE Code 500112

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

LARSEN & TOUBRO (L&T)

Industry : Capital Goods Price: CMP Rs 1208 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 1500 Comments and Analysis : After nearly making a double top in November, 2010, L&T has been on a steady decline. Its recently made a low at around 1000 which was the lower end of the gap area of May, 2009. The technical indicators are in the oversold territory implying that a change of course for the trend could be round the corner. Prospects : The odds for a sustainable upmove in L&T is quite high and the oversold momentum indicator should ensure any such sustainable rally. One can expect this stock to rise towards the area of 200 Day EMA at around 1500 in the next 3-5 months.

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code LT IN NSE Code LT BSE Code 500510

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Stock Picks BHEL

Industry : Capital Goods Price: CMP Rs 276 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 340-350 Comments And Analysis : The onslaught of the bears for the last few quarters had resulted in the stock nearly testing its October, 2008 lows. Due to this it has created conditions for a double bottom. Also, its medium term technical oscillator is showing oversold signals and it has been in this territory for quite some time. With a change in market trend, we expect BHEL most of its losses. Prospects : The conditions are mature for the stock to have a sustainable bounceback. Any positive short term trend can catapult the stock towards 340-350 which can occur in a 4-5 months time frame.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code BHEL IN NSE Code BHEL BSE Code 500103

ACC
Industry : Cement Price: CMP Rs 1105 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 1300 Comments And Analysis : The stock has been steadily rising exhibiting a channel formation for the last two years. Due to the channel foramtion, Its technical oscillators are neutral. With the change in the market trend, we expect ACC to continue along the present lines. Prospects : The stock can see a continuation of its uptrend and can rise towards the upper end of the trend channel. A target of 1300 looks a good possibility in the next 4-5 months.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code ACC IN NSE Code ACC BSE Code 500410

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

Stock Picks AMBUJA

Industry : Cement Price: CMP Rs 151 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 172-175 Comments and Analysis : The prices of Ambuja Cements has been steadily rising. Inspite of showing higher top and higher bottom formation for the last couple of quarters, its medium term momentum indicators is still healthy for further upmove. Any evidence of fatigue is not evident yet. Prospects : The stock can continue with its rise and can see a price target 172-175 in the next 3-5 months.

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code ACEM IN NSE Code AMBUJACEM BSE Code 500425

JP ASSOCIATE
Industry : Conglomerate Price: CMP Rs 60 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 85-90 Comments And Analysis : The prices of JP Associate has seen a steady decline from October, 2009. This downtrend is also confirmed by the decline in the long term oscillator. However, for the past few months since August, 2011 the oscillator has been exhibiting oversold signals. Such a divergence over an extended period is suggestive of a sustainable recovery that could ensue going forward. The chances of a medium term recovery further gains ground on the back of positive signals coming from the short term charts. Bloomberg Code JPA IN NSE Code JPASSOCIAT BSE Code 532532 Prospects : The stock has seen a recovery of sorts in the last few weeks. The short term and medium term now looks extremely healthy for higher prices. We foresee a price of 85-90 in the next 3-4 months.

Expected time: (3-4 months)

Recommendation: BUY

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

10

Stock Picks VOLTAS

Industry : Engineering Price: CMP Rs 86 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 105-115 Comments And Analysis : Voltas has seen a severe decline in prices since November, 2010. It recently made a low at around 71 which essentially filled the gap that was created in May,2009. Its medium term technical oscillators is in the oversold territory signifying that further downsides could be minimal from current levels. Prospects : The conditions are ripe for this stock to have an enduring upmove both in the short and medium term. With such prospects, one can look at a target of 105 followed by 115 in the next 4-5 months.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code VOLT IN NSE Code VOLTAS BSE Code 500575

ITC
Industry : FMCG Price: CMP Rs 209 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 235-240 Comments And Analysis : ITC has been in an uptrend for the last few years. Inspite of the decline in the benchmarks during the last year, the stock has seen higher prices. This clearly puts the stock in an outperformer category. Prospects : The stock still hovers above an important medium term moving average. We expect the stock to advance towards 235-240 in the next 3-4 months.

Expexted time: (3-4 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code ITC IN NSE Code ITC BSE Code 500875

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

11

Stock Picks DABUR

Industry : FMCG Price: CMP Rs 96 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 115-120 Comments And Analysis : Dabur has been trading with bullish sentiment since making a low in October, 2008. The stock has seen a sideways to neutral move for the last few months. This has resulted in the momentum oscillator coming into the oversold territory. We expect this stock to sustain this high levels. Prospects : A medium term rally towards 115-120 looks possible in the next 3-5 months.

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code DABUR IN NSE Code DABUR BSE Code 500096

INDIAN HOTELS
Industry : Hotels Price: CMP Rs 62 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 80-84 Comments and Analysis : The downtrend in Indian Hotels has been pretty relentless since May,2010. This decline in prices was also supported by momentum oscillators. From the medium term charts, its quite clear that the indicators are now turning up from oversold territory and hence a strong recovery is imminent. The stock has also moved above its medium term moving average. Prospects : The medium term oscillator is now exhibiting positive crossover and the short term outlook also appears optimistic. The minimum target for this ensuing uptrend could be 80-84 in the next 3-4 months.

Expected time: (3-4 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code IH IN NSE Code INDHOTEL BSE Code 500850

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

12

Stock Picks LANCO INFRA

Industry : Infrastructure Price: CMP Rs 14.95 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 20-22 Comments and Analysis : Lanco has seen a continuous formation of lower top and lower bottom from November, 2010. A look at the momentum indicator indicates that the selling could have been overdone. The momentum indicator confirms that a positive divergence is clearly apparent from June,2011 onwards. The stock has also tested near its 2008 lows thereby making conditions for a double bottom. Recently, the stock has managed a breakout above the medium term moving average. Prospects : The conditions of a double bottom pattern formation along with positive divergences in the medium charts indicates of a sustainable recovery. The short term charts have also now turned positive indicating higher prices for this counter. We envisage a price of 20-22 in the next 3-4 months.

Expected time: (3-4 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code LANCI IN NSE Code LITL BSE Code 532778

GMR INFRA
Industry : Infrastructure Price: CMP Rs 28.60 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 38-40 Comments And Analysis : The stock has been mauled by the bears and has been seen a strong downtrend for the last few years. Its constant underperformance has resulted in the stock seeing quite depressed prices in the last few weeks. The medium term technical oscillators apart from being oversold for the last few months is also showing positive divergence in the short term charts. Prospects : Condition s are ripe for a sustainable recovery that can see the stock test the level of 38-40 in the next 4-5 months.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code GMRI IN NSE Code GMRINFRA BSE Code 5532754

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

13

Stock Picks HINDALCO

Industry : Metals Price: CMP Rs 132 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 170-172 Comments And Analysis : Hindalco has seen a steady deterioration of prices since December, 2010. It recently tested a low of around 112 which is also the 61.8% retracement of its entire upmove from March, 2009 to December, 2010. As the stock has tested an important support of a long term chart, a durable bouneback could be ensuing. The medium term oversold indicators confirm the belief of an enduring pullback rally going forward. Prospects : The stock could see a turnaround of its downtrend which can result in the stock trading higher towards 170-172. This price can get reached in the next 35 months.

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code HNDL IN NSE Code HINDALCO BSE Code 500440

TATA STEEL
Industry : Metals Price: CMP Rs 421 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs510-520 Comments And Analysis : The bears have been in total control of the trend of the stock for the last few months. However, there are few positives that are now emerging for the bulls. The medium term technical oscillators are now in the oversold territory and also exhibiting positive divergence on the short term charts. The stock could have minimal downsides from the current level. Prospects : One can look at higher prices for this stock over the medium term with a price target of 510-520 in the next 3-4 months. Bloomberg Code TATA IN NSE Code TATASTEEL BSE Code 500470

Expected time: (3-4 months)

Recommendation: BUY

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

14

Stock Picks TATA POWER

Industry : Power Price: CMP Rs 97 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 115-120 Comments and Analysis : Tata Power has been in a downtrend since the last one year. Accumulation pattern is visible on the short term charts suggesting that there could be minimal downsides from hereon. Also, its medium term technical oscillators are in the oversold territory implying that a sustainable trend reversal could be on the cards. Prospects : The chances of a trend reversal is quite high at the current juncture and any such turnaround could have the support of technical oscillators. We maintain a bullish stance for this counter with a target price of 115-120 in the next 4-5 months.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code TPWR IN NSE Code TATAPOWER BSE Code 500400

PTC
Industry : Power Price: CMP Rs 46 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 62-65 Comments and Analysis : The stock has seen a steady decline in prices since November, 2010. It recently tested a low of around 40. The unrelenting decine has resulted in the technical oscillator coming into the oversold territory. A look at the medium term chart suggest that it could be at the cusp of a positive crossover. Prospects : Since the stock has been brutally hammered in the last one year any sustainable bounceback could result in high percentage returns. One can envisage a price target of 62-65 in the next 4-5 months.

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code PTCIN IN NSE Code PTC BSE Code 532524

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

15

Stock Picks RELIANCE POWER

Industry : Power Price: CMP Rs 86 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 125 Comments and Analysis : Reliance Power has been in a bearish trend for the last few years. This downtrend also breached its earlier lows of October, 2008. However, in the last couple of weeks few positives now seem to be emerging. The medium term technical indicators are exhibiting positive divergence. This signifies that the likelihood of a sustainable downtrend is bleak. Prospects : Any positive change in the short term can trigger higher prices for this stock. A target closer to 125 looks possible in the next 4-5 months. Bloomberg Code RPWR IN NSE Code RPOWER BSE Code 532939

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

DLF
Industry : Real Estate Price: CMP Rs 193 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 260-265 Comments and Analysis : This leading stock in the real estate sector has been a strong underperformer compared to the benchmarks. The price move in the last few months however indicate that selling exhaustion could be occurring at lower levels. The technical oscillators are also in the oversold territory and exhibiting positive divergence for the last couple of months. Prospects : The prospects of the stock to move higher towards the level of 260-265 is very high. We foresee this price to be achieved in the next 5-6 months. Bloomberg Code DLFU IN NSE Code DLF BSE Code 532868

Expected time: (5-6 months)

Recommendation: BUY

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

16

Stock Picks UNITECH

Industry : Real Estate Price: CMP Rs 24.30 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 38-40 Comments and Analysis : The stock has been in a bearish phase for the last few years in line with other real estate stocks. Its medium term indicators are showing a positive divergence signifying a steady decline in prices remains a difficult proposition. Its short term charts also confirms of accumulation pattern justifying our premise of accumulation. Prospects : Any upthrust in this counter over the short term can result in a breakout above the upper area of the trendchannel. Unitech can then be headed for 38-40 in the next 4-5 months. Bloomberg Code UT IN NSE Code UNITECH BSE Code 507878

Expected time: (4-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

HDIL
Industry : Real Estate Price: CMP Rs 71 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 110 Comments And Analysis : HDIL has been south bound after testing a high in October, 2009. It has been consistently making a lower top and lower bottom which has been supported by its technical momentum oscillators. The consistent slippage in prices resulted in the stock even breaching its 2009 lows. The momentum oscillators in the medium term have now reached rock bottom and a change of trend could now be round the corner. Prospects : The short term outlook has become positive after its breakout above 60 level. The odds for a sustainable upmove is quite high and the stock can move towards it 200 Day EMA of around 110. The time frame for this target could be 4-6 months.

Expected time: (4-6 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code HDIL IN NSE Code HDIL BSE Code 532873

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

17

Stock Picks RCOM

Industry : Telecom Price: CMP Rs 86 Medium term trend: Bullish
Target Price: Rs 120-122 Comments and Analysis : One of the severe underperformer amongst the telecom stocks, the stock has seen a southbound move for the last few years. However, continuing negative prospects could be coming close to be getting over. The technical oscillators besides showing oversold conditions are also exhibiting a strong positive divergence. The stock has also moved above its immediate resistance line indicating a change of trend. Prospects : A breakout above the trend line has resulted in a structural change forthe trend of the stock. A price of about 120-122 in the next 3-5 months.

Expected time: (3-5 months)

Recommendation: BUY

Bloomberg Code RCOM IN NSE Code RCOM BSE Code 532712

sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

18

RESEARCH

T E A M
EQUITY DESK
Sadanand Raje Head - Institutional Sales Technical Analyst sadanand.raje@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6366

RESEARCH
Vineet Hetamasaria, CFA Nikhil Deshpande Tasmai Merchant Vinod Nair Ankit Babel Hitul Gutka Subramaniam Yadav Madhura Joshi Satish Mishra Urvashi Biyani Naveen Trivedi Rohit Kumar Anand Niraj Garhyan Namrata Sharma Sakshee Chhabra Bikash Bhalotia Harleen Babber Dipti Vijaywargi Sushant Dalmia, CFA Poonam Sanghavi Suman Memani Abhishek Kumar C Krishnamurthy
Head of Research, Auto, Cement Auto, Auto Ancillary, Cement Auto, Auto Ancillary, Cement Construction, Power, Capital Goods Capital Goods, Engineering Power Construction Power Fertiliser, Oil & Gas Fertiliser, Oil & Gas FMCG IT Services IT Services Media Media Metals, Mining Metals, Mining Metals, Mining Pharma Pharma Real Estate, Mid caps Real Estate, Mid caps Technical Analyst

vineet.hetamasaria@pinc.co.in nikhil.deshpande@pinc.co.in tasmai.merchant@pinc.co.in vinod.nair@pinc.co.in ankit.b@pinc.co.in hitul.gutka@pinc.co.in subramaniam.yadav@pinc.co.in madhura.joshi@pinc.co.in satish.mishra@pinc.co.in urvashi.biyani@pinc.co.in naveent@pinc.co.in rohit.anand@pinc.co.in niraj.garhyan@pinc.co.in namrata.sharma@pinc.co.in sakshee.chhabra@pinc.co.in bikash.bhalotia@pinc.co.in harleen.babber@pinc.co.in dipti.vijaywargi @pinc.co.in sushant.dalmia@pinc.co.in poonam.sanghavi@pinc.co.in suman.memani@pinc.co.in abhishek.kumar@pinc.co.in krishnamurthy.c@pinc.co.in

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Rajeev Gupta Ankur Varman Himanshu Varia Shailesh Kadam Ganesh Gokhale
Equities Equities Equities Derivatives Derivatives

rajeev.gupta@pinc.co.in ankur.varman@pinc.co.in himanshu.varia@pinc.co.in shaileshk@pinc.co.in ganeshg@pinc.co.in

91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618

6486 6380 6342 6349 6347

DEALING
Mehul Desai Amar Margaje Ashok Savla Sajjid Lala Raju Bhavsar Hasmukh D. Prajapati
Head - Sales Trading

mehul.desai@pinc.co.in amar.margaje@pinc.co.in ashok.savla@pinc.co.in sajjid.lala@pinc.co.in rajub@pinc.co.in hasmukhp@pinc.co.in

91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618 91-22-6618

6303 6327 6321 6337 6322 6325

DIRECTORS
Gaurang Gandhi Hemang Gandhi Ketan Gandhi gaurangg@pinc.co.in hemangg@pinc.co.in ketang@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6400 91-22-6618 6400 91-22-6618 6400

COMPLIANCE
Rakesh Bhatia Head Compliance rakeshb@pinc.co.in 91-22-6618 6400

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