Answer the following:

1) The Management Science Association (MSA) has arranged to hold its annual conference at the Riverside Hotel in Orlando next year. Based on historical data, the MSA believes the number of rooms it will need for its members attending the conference is normally distributed, with a mean of 800 and a standard deviation of 270. The MSA can reserve rooms now (1 year prior to the conference) for $80; however, for any rooms not reserved now, the cost will be at the hotel's regular room rate of $120. The MSA guarantees the room rate of $80 to its members. If its members reserve fewer than the number of rooms it reserves, MSA must pay the hotel for the difference, at the $80 room rate. If MSA does not reserve enough rooms, it must pay the extra cost of $40 per room. a. Use five trials simulation to determine the total cost MSA reserved 600, 800 or 1,000 rooms in advance to realize the lowest total cost finding the estimated cost in each case. b. Can you determine a more exact value for the number of rooms to reserve to minimize cost?
Use the following set of random numbers 0.59, 0.53, 0.11, 0.52, 0.21 (25 marks)

2) The Western Outfitters Store specializes in denim jeans. The variable cost of the jeans varies according to several factors, including the cost of the jeans from the distributor, labor costs, handling, packaging, and so on. Price also is a random variable that varies according to competitors' prices. Sales volume also varies each month, assume that the sales volume for
Western Outfitters Store is normally distributed, with a mean of 600 pairs of jeans and a standard deviation of 200; the price is uniformly distributed, with a minimum of $22 and a maximum of $28; the variable

cost (per unit) is following the discrete probability: Variable Cost Probability $8 9 10 11 12 .17 .32 .29 .14 .08

Fixed costs are $9,000 per month for the store. Simulate 10 months of store sales and compute the probability that the store will at least break even and the average profit (or loss). (20 marks)
Use the following sets of random numbers: 17, 95, 21, 78, 58, 24, 33, 45, 77, 48 37, 79, 49, 12, 38, 48, 13, 93, 55, 69 50, 81, 23, 95, 22, 35, 93, 11, 48, 58

3) The emergency room of the community hospital in Farmburg has one receptionist, one doctor, and one nurse. The emergency room opens at time zero, and patients begin to arrive some time later. Patients arrive at the emergency room according to the following probability distribution: Time Between Arrivals (min.) 5 10 15 20 25 30 Probabi lity .06 .10 .23 .29 .18 .14

The attention needed by a patient who comes to the emergency room is defined by the following probability distribution: Patient Needs Probabi to See lity Doctor alone Nurse alone Both .50 .20 .30

If a patient needs to see both the doctor and the nurse, he or she cannot see one before the other that is, the patient must wait to see both

together. The length of the patient's visit (in minutes) is defined by the following probability distributions: Doct Probabi or lity 10 15 20 25 30 .22 .31 .25 .12 .10 Nur se 5 10 15 20 Probabi Bot Probabi lity h lity .08 .24 .51 .17 15 20 25 30 35 40 .07 .16 .21 .28 .17 .11

Simulate the arrival of 5 patients to the emergency room and compute the probability that a patient must wait and the average waiting time. Based on this one simulation, does it appear that this system provides adequate patient care? Use the following sets of random numbers: { 17, 95, 21, 05, 78} { 37, 49, 55, 96, 12 } { 91, 56, 22, 08, 43}