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tw
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1990
semi-presidentialism

99 6 100 3 101 3

Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy, 2011

47 100 3 29 4
100 12

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II

TSSCI

13

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2008

Shugart-Carey-Elgie

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III

IV

2005

2000

vs.

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Shugart-Carey-Elgie

Shugart-Carey-Elgie

2008

2000

2000

23

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VI

1991~2010

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Shugart-Carey-Elgie

20002004

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VII

VIII

2008

Shugart-Carey-Elgie

Shugart-Carey-Elgie 4P

4P

4P
ShugartCarey-Elgie

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2003 2008

101

1997
1997 15
2000 2008

2008 2012 1

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IX

2012 2 24

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29

61

103

133

2008

167

205

253

1991-2010

291

341

2000-2004

375

2008

427

459

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 www.wunan.com.tw
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**

semi-presidentialism
1990
Maurice Duverger

Duverger
Duverger, 1980
Robert Elgie
Elgie,
1999a; 1999b; 2001; Elgie & Moestrup, 2007; 2008Elgie

*
**

2011471-32

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2000

Shugart-Carey

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(02)2705-5066

2001

Easter, 1997

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56
41
2

established democracies

post-Leninist countries 15

2007 2008
Mwai Kibaki
Robert Mugabe Raila Odinga
Morgan Tsvangirai

2005 2009 Freedom House

not free Polity IV 6
11

2010 8

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postcolonial countries 20

1.1

entry mode

1.1

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1.1

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1.1

Blondel, 1992

1.1

1960

1980 1990

1976
1990

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1.1

1980
1990
15 19
40 2002 41
85%

1990

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1.1

1910
2

1920 3

1930

1940 4

1950 4

1960 5

1970 6

1980 6

1990
6
2000 6

16

17 19
15

40

15

20

41

15

20

41

quasi-parliamentarism, QPalternation/cohabitation, ALTcompromise, COMpresidential supremacy,

PS

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10

1986

1992

Wu, 2011
5

200065-67

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41

1.2
1 4
1.5
1.71 3.17
2.47 3.4

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12

1.2

QP

COM

ALT

QP

QP

QP

**

1.5

QP

ALT

ALT

COM ALT

COM

n/a

QP

QP

n/a

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

QP

PS

PS ALT

2
3.17

ALT

PS

4
2.47

1
1.71

PS

PS

PS

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1.2

**

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

ALT

PS

PS

PS

PS

PS

QP

PS

PS

ALT

ALT

PS

COM

PS

PS

QP

PS

PS

PS

PS

n/a

3.4

2.78

* 41

** QP = ALT = COM = PS =

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13

14

Maurice Duverger Matthew Shugart John Carey

Robert ElgieDuverger1980

Shugart
Carey1992premier presidentialismpresident parliamentarism

Shugart 2005
Duverger
Shugart, 2005 Elgie Duverger
Elgie, 1998,
1999b; 2003; 2004 Shugart Carey vs.
Elgie &
Schleiter, 2011
Duverger-Sugart Carey-Elgie

1990

Duverger 1970 1978

1980 European Journal of Political Research
Duverger

Giovanni Sartori Duverger Elgie Sartori

Duverger
Elgie
Alan Siaroff Sartori

Sartori1997: 131-132Siaroff2003: 2902005

114Elgie2007: 2-3 Arend Lijphart
alternation
Lijphart1992: 8Elgie2007: 3

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Elgie Semi-Presidentialism in Europe

9

Elgie, 1999a
Elgie Sophia Moestrup

Elgie & Moestrup, 2008, Semi-Presidentialism

in Central and Eastern EuropeElgie & Moestrup,
2007, Semi-presidentialism outside Europe 1999

ElgieMoestrup Yu-Shan Wu Semi-Presidentialism and Democracy

2011a

institutional choice
institutional operationinstitutional impact

Elgie divided government Divided Government in

Comparative PerspectiveElgie, 2001

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15

16

Von Beyme, 2001Kopstein & Reilly, 2000

200054-55Bunce, 1997Crawford & Lijphart, 1995; 1997Horowitz, 2002
Geddes, 1995; Easter, 1997; Elster, offe & Preuss 1998; Frye,
1997

Hsieh, 1993; Chu & Lee, 2003

Shugart & Carey, 1992; Shugart, 1996; Wu, 2003

Baylis, 1996

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Wu, 20002002b Wu, 2005; Lin, 2006

1996a, 1996b
Cabestan, 2003; Hsieh, 2003; Liao & Chien, 2005

1996Shugart, 1996;
Bahro, 199920002002a20012001
Wang 2003Fish, 20032000
20002006
Gunther, 1999

10

1.2
Shugart Carey

1.2
A BC

1997
2000
1933

10

Lee2011 Tsai2011

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17

18

Cluster
Initial
Conditions

Evolution

C
B
A

1.2

11

Shugart-Carey-Elgie

Shugart Carey1992 Elgie

11

Petru Lucinschi

Crowther, 2009

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SCE

dual accountability
institutional culprit
SCE

Elgie & Schleiter, 2011SCE

SCE
Shugart Carey

SCE

SCE vs.

Elgie

vs.

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19

20

vs.

SCE
vs.
SCE

Shugart-Carey SCE
Elgie & Schleiter,
2011
Reilly, 2011Moestrup,
2011
SCE
SCE

SCE

SCE
1.2
SCE D C

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. .,
2012.03

ISBN 978-957-11-6542-4 ()
1.
572.53

100028117

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P.Design

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