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Right Radicalism in the context of transformation of the United Kingdom's political system

Dmitry Kurnosov St. Petersburg State University

Prepared for delivery at the Third Global International Studies Conference, Porto, Portugal, August 17-20, 2011

Abstract Dmitry Kurnosov1 2010 United Kingdom General Election heralded a dramatic shift in British politics. First Post-War coalition government unveiled a range of far-reaching political reforms. Although some of them (e.g. Alternative Vote) have already been rejected, while some (reform of the House of Lords) appear to be stuck at parliamentary stage, change in the way the British politics works appears unavoidable. Indeed, its already happening at the regional (e.g. Scotland, Wales or London) or European Parliament level. Traditional two or two-and-ahalf party system gave way there to a multiparty system. The far right British National Party has been one of the beneficiaries of this process, gaining representation at the European Parliament and Greater London Assembly. This paper analyzes how the party sought to adapt itself to the ongoing change and what strategies did it employ.

Introduction The role of the far right in the changed political environment has long been a subject of heated discussions among British politicians. E.g. one of the leading advocates of maintaining First-Past-the-Post system at national elections, Conservative MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham Daniel Kawczynski made the following argument against the proposed Alternative Vote system: Imagine a scene in the future in which the Labour and Conservative parties are neck and neck in a particular seat. As we watch on television, the second preferences of the BNP are counted and ultimately decide who wins the seat. How would we feel as the BNP supporters cheer and shout? The idea sends a shiver down my spine2. A year earlier, a similar argument was advanced by the Conservative leader David
Ph.D Student at the School of International Relations of St.Petersburg State University. Contact: dd.kurnosov@gmail.com 2 House of Commons Debate of September 6, 2010, available at http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201011/cmhansrd/cm100906/debtext/100906-0003.htm
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Cameron as a response to the proposal of the Labour party to study a possibility to switch to the proportional system. On that issue, does he agree that a truly proportional system has massive drawbacks? Did we not see that on Sunday night, when the British National party, a bunch of fascist thugs, got two members elected to the European Parliament? Does he agree with me that that is a very, very strong argument against proportional systems? 3 Empirical research, done on the basis of the data, available from changed regional political environment e.g. in post-devolution Scotland 4, has shown that shift from First-Past-thePast to at least Mixed-Member System has the following consequences: a) the effective number of political parties grows, while b) there is a minimal possibility of a single-party government 5. Hence, the fears of the British political class, are at least partially substantiated.

BNP tuning itself to the political change Although the premier British far right party of the day was established back in 1982, the new history of the BNP usually begins in 1999, when Nick Griffin was elected as chairman of the party, unseating founder John Tyndall. Already prior to his election, Griffin in his capacity as the Director of Publicity began his attempts to find a new image to the party. Despite Griffin being a rather hardcore ideological activist, known for his Julis Evola style experiments of 1980s, bordering on violent extremism, the new vision of the party role was based on pragmatist concerns. Although couched in unavoidable palingenetic terms, the prophecies of the inevitable decline of the major parties, were now seen by Griffin not as a chance for all-out attack on the institutions of the state, but rather as a political opening. His vision of the partys future envisaged it becoming a respectable part
House of Commons Debate of June 10, 2009, available at http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200809/cmhansrd/cm090610/debtext/90610-0002.htm 4 R.E. Bohrer G.S. Krutz Duverger and devolution: a note on the effects of new electoral rules in the UK // Electoral Studies, 2004, 2, pp.315-327 5 Although recent Scottish regional election seems to challenge such an assumption
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of the political milieu. To achieve this party had to dispose of the culture of careless extremism, unacceptable for 98% of the population 6. Professionalism and responsibility were to become the new catchwords 7. BNP was also to employ its opponents, using such apple-pie concepts as freedom, democracy, security and identity 8. Evidently this paradigmatic shift was influenced by both the pragmatist wing of the British National Front ant the ideology of the French Front National, which successes the British far right tried to emulate since 1980s. Little wonder, that the visit of French far right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen was the highlight of the BNPs 2004 party festival. However, turning to the point of our inquiry, the main thrust of the BNP activity in 1999 were the European elections. Pursuant to the Act, adopted a year previously, they for the first time ever in the UK were to be conducted under the proportional system. Griffin saw this as an opening, pulling the partys effort into the election. The poll also saw a notable shift in BNP publicity. Anti-immigrant rethoric, was largely displaced by fear-mongering about the dangers of the European Union, including the prospects of creation of a single European army and judiciary and ultimately, the dismembering of the United Kingdom into Balkan-like mini-states9. However, more important is the partys new-found focus on liberty and freedom. These words are mentioned in the manifesto for a total of 24 times, including the title10. This twist reminds of the concept of ethnocratic liberalism, first proposed by Roger Griffin. However, despite all these changes, end results were rather dismal. BNP scored a total of about 100,000 votes or about 1% of the total vote, with 1,7% in West Midlands and 1,6% in London being the best result. Nick Griffin however was far from taken aback. He described this result as signaling the transformation of the BNP from a local pressure group into a serious national party, although with a small level of support 11 If not accurate,
The Challenge of the New Millennium, by Nick Griffin in Moving On, Moving Up. cit in Copsey 2004, p.110 Patriot, Spring 1999, p. 3. cit Copsey 2004, p.101 8 Ibid, p.103 9 http://vote.bnp.net/euroman.html (available at web.archive.org) 10 Ibid 11 Ibid
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this statement definitely showed Griffins ambition. Showcasing the growing gap between old and new guard, former leader John Tyndall would later dismiss the 1999 election as not worth the effort12.

BNPs three-layer electoral strategy In years between 1999 and European election 10 years subsequently, the BNP has managed to establish a rather successful three-layer strategy: a) focusing the effort on the European election as the primary goal; b) using local elections as a tool to build a support base; c) fighting Parliamentary elections and by-elections primarily to get the oxygen of publicity. Such strategy is evident from, inter alia, financial statements of the party. 2009 European elections cost party a total of 282,000 pound sterling 13. Although negligible compared to the major parties, it was a significant sum for the BNP, especially compared with party expenses on parliamentary elections. A specific trait of local elections was BNPs eagerness not to stand full slates of candidates in multi-member wards, apparently to let voters split their preferences between the party and its more mainstream counterparts. E.g. BNP fielded a sole candidate in a threemember ward in 82 per cent of cases in 2002 local elections, 95 per cent in 2004 and 70,7 per cent in 2006 14. Full slate of candidates has been fielded only in 7,1 per cent, 1,9 per cent and 4,9 per cent respectively15. BNP electoral strategy yielded results, which are both consistent and volatile. While electoral strongholds of the party are easily identifiable and can be traced back from the 1999 campaign, the number of votes achieved by BNP candidates can vary dramatically.
Tyndall J. Wrong Priorities Wrong Results, http://www.spearhead.com/0407-jt3.html URL:http://registers.electoralcommission.org.uk/regulatory-issues/gbcampaignex.cfm?ec={ts %20%272010-02-23%2022%3A46%3A18%27} 14 See Rhodes 2006 15 Ibid
12 13

While in 1999-2009 we can speak of a nationwide surge in BNP support, since then the electoral results have been steadily declining. However, even peak results from 2008 and 2009 wouldve been sufficient to achieve BNP nationwide representation only in some form of proportional representation.

Who votes for BNP? The successes of the Fascist movements of 1930s was often attributed to rising unemployment and deprivation, resulting from the Great Depression. Today with massive changes in social structure of the society it's much more difficult to pinpoint who votes for the given party. It's further complicated by the reluctance on the part of many far right supporters to show pollsters their true allegiance. Thus, in this section we will mostly compare electoral and census data.

Most obvious suggestion would be to link the BNP vote with the influx of immigrant population in given area. However, this view has limitations. First and foremost, the large proportion of immigrants in the area naturally shrinks a possible constituency for the far right.

Nonetheless, a 2006 study16 of local elections has shown a small positive correlation between a proportion of non-white population and BNP vote 17. A similar study of 2005 general elections has shown an even stronger correlation between the two variables. On the other hand, a 2005 study18 of London elections has shown no correlation between proportion of immigrant population and BNP vote.

16 17

BNP: the roots of its appeal Ibid, p.16

18

Shutt et al., p.19.

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 ,328(**) ,000 117

Total proportion of non-white residents, 2001 Census ,328(**) ,000 117 1

Total proportion of non-white residents, 2001 Census

569

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Speaking about specific ethnic and religious groups, there seems to be a positive correlation between the BNP vote and percentage of Muslim population, which isn't surprising, given it's anti-Islamic stance. Such a correlation is supported both by the study of 2005 general election and 2006 study, which have shown a positive correlation between the BNP vote and proportion of ethnic Pakistani and Bangladeshi populations 19.

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed)

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 ,370(**) ,000 108

Percentage Muslim ,370(**) ,000 108 1 535

Percentage Muslim

N ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Although dismissed by Marxist scholars, the fact is that the far right is often supported by the lower middle class and working class population. This theory proves accurate in case of BNP. A 2006 study cites a 2004 European election exit poll, where 72% reported BNP voters came from C2, D, E social group (i.e. lower-middle and working class) 20 The accuracy of this report may be disputed, however the 2005 general election data shows positive correlation between the BNP vote and proportion of people with no educational qualifications and working in routine and semi-routine occupations. On the contrary, the

19 20

BNP: the roots of its appeal, p.16 Ibid, p.14

correlation between the BNP vote and proportion of people involved in higher managerial or supervisory occupations has been negative. Such a trend is in line with an explanation of far right support as an answer to the 'post-materialist agenda' (See: Ignazi, 1992; Minkenberg, 2000). Such an explanation would imply that most eager to challenge the social and political 'status quo' are those with background of low education and living stadard (See: Eatwell, 2003)

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 ,535(**) ,000 117

Percentage of pop with no qualifications, 2001 census ,535(**) ,000 117 1

Percentage of pop with no qualifications, 2001 census

569

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Percentage routine occupations, 2001 census ,457(**) ,000 108 1

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 ,457(**) ,000 108

Percentage routine occupations, 2001 census

535

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed)

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 ,382(**) ,000 108

Percentage semi-routine occupations, 2001 census ,382(**) ,000 108 1 535

Percentage semi-routine occupations, 2001 census

N ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 -,415(**) ,000 108

Percentage lower managerial and professional occupations, 2001 census -,415(**) ,000 108 1

Percentage lower managerial and professional occupations, 2001 census

535

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 -,458(**) ,000 108

Percentage higher professional occupations, 2001 census -,458(**) ,000 108 1

Percentage higher professional occupations, 2001 census

535

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

More specifically, according to the 2006 study, the most deprived areas have shown little enthusiasm towards the BNP21. Another characteristic, often overlooked by scholars, is the quality of housing the area. A study of 2005 general elections has shown a positive correlation between proportion of rented, social and low-quality housing and the BNP vote, which is not surprising considering the emphasis on the housing issue which is made by the party during local elections.

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119

Proportion of HH renting property, 2001 census ,303(**) ,001 117

21

BNP: the roots of its appeal, p.15

Proportion of HH renting property, 2001 census

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

,303(**) ,001 117

1 569

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 121 ,287(**) ,002 119

Proportion of HH council/RA housing, 2001 census ,287(**) ,002 119 1

Proportion of HH council/RA housing, 2001 census

119

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Proportion of HH

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 121 ,337(**) ,000 119

without central heating & sole use of bath/shower & WC, 2001
census ,337(**) ,000 119 1 119

Proportion of HH without

central heating & sole use of bath/shower & WC, 2001 census

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Speaking about the relation of BNP vote towards other parties, we can see mixed results. The 2005 and 2006 speak about the interconnection between the BNP and UKIP electorate. It's most evident if look at the use of supplementary vote at the 2004 London mayoral election. However the very nature of mayoral election is rather specific and in case of 2004 elections it's further complicated by the fact they were held at the same day with the European polls, massively successful for the UKIP. Meanwhile, data from 2005 general election shown little correlation between BNP and UKIP vote. At the same time, it shows correlation between voter turnout, Labour vote (which is unsurprising, given that BNP gains in many 'safe' Labour districts) and the ethnicity of Tory candidate.

Change in BNP vote 2001-2005 Change in BNP vote 20012005 Change in turnout 2001-5 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 22 ,750(**) ,000 22 1

Change in turnout 2001-5 ,750(**) ,000 22 1 568

Leppert Leppert (BNP) Maloney (UKIP) Norris (Conservative) Hughes (LibDem) Livingston (Labour) 21,9% 6,9% 2,1% 1,6%

Maloney 49,2% 26,8% 8,3% 4,8%

Norris 22% 35,7% 26% 11,9%

Hughes 7,6% 14% 40,2% 45,5%

Livingston 7,7% 10,1% 10,5% 33,9% -

Distribution of supplementary votes in 2004 London mayoral election UKIP=United Kingdom Independence Party LibDem=Liberal Democrats Source: Shutt D., Lowles N., John P., Marggets H., Rowland M., Weir S., Cruddas J. The Far Right in London: a challenge for local democracy?, p.14 URL:http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf

Change in BNP vote 2001-2005 Change in BNP vote 20012005 Change in turnout 2001-5 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N ** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 22 ,750(**) ,000 22 1

Change in turnout 2001-5 ,750(**) ,000 22 1 568

Change in BNP vote 2001-2005 Change in BNP vote 2001-2005 Change in Labour Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation 22 -,602(**) 1

Change in Labour vote 2001-5 -,602(**) ,003 22 1

vote 2001-5

Sig. (2-tailed) N

,003 22 627

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). Ethnicity of Conservative PPC 2005 ,282(**) ,002 117 1 622

% vote BNP 2005

Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) N

% vote BNP 2005 1 119 ,282(**) ,002 117

Ethnicity of Conservative PPC 2005

** Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 0=Minority 1=White

Conclusion Under the stewardship of Nick Griffin, the BNP sought to benefit from ongoing change in British political system that comprised both declining support for major political parties and introduction of alternative voting systems. The party attempted to make itself more acceptable to a wider audience and to fine-tune electoral strategy on different levels of representation. BNP managed to establish support of a certain identifiable constituency, marked by post-materialist agenda. However, this support has been rather volatile, despite the establishment of a number of electoral strongholds. References John P., Margetts H., Rowland D., Weir S. BNP: the roots of its appeal URL:http://www.jrct.org.uk/core/documents/download.asp?id=300 Shutt D., Lowles N., John P., Marggets H., Rowland M., Weir S., Cruddas J. The Far Right in London: a challenge for local democracy? - York, 2005 URL:http://www.jrrt.org.uk/Far_Right_REPORT.pdf

R.E. Bohrer G.S. Krutz Duverger and devolution: a note on the effects of new electoral rules in the UK // Electoral Studies, 2004, 2, pp.315-327
Copsey, N. Contemporary British Fascism: The British National Party and the Quest for Legitimacy - Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan, 2004 288 p. Cronin, M. (ed) The Failure of British Fascism: The Far Right and the Fight for political recognition - London: Macmillan, 1996 182 p.

Eatwell, R. Ten Theories of Extreme Right // Maerkl, P.H., Weinberg L., Cass F. Right-wing extremism in the 21st century pp.4773

(ed.)

Ignazi, P. The silent counter-revolution: Hypothesis on the emergence of extreme rightwing parties in Europe // European Journal of Political Research - Vol.26 3, 1992 pp.334 Minkenberg M. The Renewal of the Radical Right: Between Modernity and Antimodernity // Government and Opposition Vol.35 2, 2000 pp.170-188 Rhodes, J. The 'local' politics of the British National Party The Institute of Race Relations, 2006 - 20 p.