Rellenvant problems of managing development of hihgly educated human resourse in Serbia

Isidora Djuri and Dragana ivkovi Technical faculty Bor

Abstract: Serbia belongs to the leading emigration countries in Europe. Just in overseas countries live about 2.4 millions of emigrants and their descendants, and nearly one million live in West Europe countries, which means that every seventh Serb lives out of Serbia, with accentuated tendency to further leave of demographically most vital and working active part of the population. Special problem are emigration tendencies of high-educated scientific human resources from Serbia, which started during nineties in last century. The most important causes of this phenomenon, known as brain waste, as well as eventual activities in solving of the problem of management of high-educated human resources development in Serbia, are presented in this paper. The results of the questionnaire done among the students of the Department of Industrial Management, Technical Faculty at Bor is presented too, as a contribution to the consideration of the mentioned problematic.

1. Introduction Rough occurrences during the last decade of last century, mainly in east-European countries, lead to the appearance of many scientific works within new interdisciplinary field called transitology. As its name indicates, its main task is analysis of transition legality, political and economic, from one (socialist) system into other (democratic). Key position in the sphere of post social transition is taken by works of Vaclav Klaus, based on transition experiences in eastEuropean countries. Generalizing distinctive occurrences that were noticed, Klaus made the transition model which contains three separate secular phases : 1) The first phase is the liberalization phase. It is characterized by relative budget and monetary stability, followed by internal convertibility with very restrictive fiscal and monetary policy. Term liberalization assumes free pricing and free foreign trade exchange. It is not favorable to have secular sub-phases within this phase, because due to danger from forming the opposite interest groups it is recommended to conduct this phase by application of shock therapy. 2) The second phase could be called the phase of negative reactions on the previous phase. It is extremely hard period, when due to inflation increase, big unemployment rate and drastic decrease of life standard, intense protests occur. It is all followed by significant fall of gross national product. Privatization process is accelerated to a maximum, but without urge from the state to achieve maximum incomes from privatization. Klaus insists to, within this phase and at all cost, continue implementation of adopted strategy, with application of so called planed guiding. There must be no oscillation, partial measures, and going backwards. Recommendation is to lead reasonable social policy, with all due respect to social groups that are short term losers in the transition process. 3) Third phase is one kind of early post-transition phase. One reaches the third phase only if a model in the previous phase was successful. Specific for this phase is that the state abandons

planed guiding and retreats into passive position, engaging explicitly on protection of economic freedom. Basic power levers are already in the hands of the market itself. It is more than obvious that transition in Serbia is being conducted by Vaclav Klaus model and that we are at the moment in specific mid-phase. According to the increased level of expressed dissatisfaction we are already in the second phase, and at the same time it seems that we did not finish all tasks envisaged by the previous phase. Obviously it is the right moment for asking questions with a goal to search for possible elegant by-solutions (which anyway fits into anticipated chronology of Klauss modes, which announces reassessment during transition, though in negative connotation. Namely, process of economic transition in this area begins in 1988 and 1989 during the time of Ante Markovi. At that time there was no Vaclav Klaus model, and the reform gave satisfying starting results (as it is known it was stopped due to totally non-economic reasons). 2. Migration of highly professional and scientific human resource in conditions of globalization and transition 2.1. Globalization and problem of Brain Drain Today labor market for most becomes unique global. It functions on demand and supply principle. Students from poor countries go to developed countries on specialized and doctoral studies and they stay there, while multinational companies from developed countries spread their businesses in countries that these students come from. For their business, these companies look for new work force in new market to spread and maintain growth and performance of high quality. On the first sight it is all balanced, some go the others are coming and international cooperation evolves. Unfortunately, behind these operations is a totally unbalanced relation between these two systems. Because of that each developed country made its own special analysis to determine state balance on realization of brain drain and brain gain. Brain Drain, in encyclopedia Britannica is defined as exodus of educated people or professionals from one country, economic sector in other countries because of better earnings or better life conditions. Britain Royal Society used this term to explain flux of scientist and technologists in USA and Canady during 1950-1960. So Canada is a winner in the brain flux compared to the rest of the world, except USA. Its total balance is positive. There are countries that do not deal with this problem at all or are doing in ineffective way. Lets look into different cases and possible defense strategies, because we are one of these countries. In research of migration of highly educated scientific human resources we differentiate following typical occurrences : 1) brain gain: gain that countries achieve where highly educated human resources are coming (with no expense for education and training they get necessary human resources, usually at the best life and work age); 2) brain waste: damage when highly educated emigrants do not find employment in industry where they can show their potentials, and in that case countries they left lose and countries they came to lose and emigrants themselves lose;

3) brain re-gain: situation when potentials of highly educated emigrants are in some way used in the country they emigrated from, including return and being active in their own country; 4) brain flight: situation of massive departure of highly educated human resource from the country. 2.2 Brain waste exodus of highly educated human resource What is actually assumed under brain waste - exodus of highly educated human resource intellectual migration? Perception of this phenomenon volume, as also the structure of migrants depends on determining the term of this phenomenon. However, statistics of some migration countries often very differently define this term. Grei concludes that in world literature there is no widely accepted definition of migration of highly education human resource. Uneven international terminology complicates comparative analysis of this phenomenon and perception of its real dimensions and characteristics. Even small numbers of our authors that work on this phenomenon do not assume under the basic term the same categories of workers. This phenomenon in our literature is called brain exodus which lately indicates, migration of highly educated and expert labor force, namely, scientist, engineers and doctors, into developed countries, with intention of migrants to permanently settle into the destination countries. In conducted research Grei however narrows the volume of the basic term and dimension of this phenomenon by questioning researchers in science institutions, science-research institutes, and also research-development units in Republic of Serbia with a goal to determine number, professional structure and level of scientific knowledge of researchers who emigrated. Therefore, object of that research is the cream of highly educated emigrants, those who professed scientific-research work. Previous research in the world confirmed that exodus of highly educated human resource is universal phenomenon and that as a problem it influences more or less all countries, but former socialist countries especially. From 1989 and fall of the Berlin wall, former socialist countries face the problem of overflow of highly educated human resource abroad (massive intellectual migration), which is especially characteristic for former SSSR. As it is shown on graph 1 from 1990.-1993 only in USA 12.434 highly educated human resources migrated from East Europe. In 1993, 3.423 highly educated professional left former SSSR and migrated into USA, from Bulgaria 176, from former Check Republic 187, from Hungary 200, from Poland 5.909 and from Romania 487. Poland largely supplied USA with highly educated human resource. That year, countries before Poland by highly educated professionals who immigrated into USA were: China (11.056), India (7.973) and Philippines (7.974). From former Yugoslavia into USA 422 highly educated professionals immigrated into USA. Out of this and other data it can be seen that intensity of exodus is in direct connection with economic situation in the country of origin of highly educated professionals. Phenomenon has tendency to grow meaning that when talking about voluntary migrations share of highly educated professional in total volume of migration is growing.

40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

SSSR Bg u arska eka repu blika M aarska Poljska R m ija u un B V roj SKN koji su se reg ularno u selili u SA u D periodu 1990-1993 Jug oslavija Kin a Indija Filipini

Graph No.1. Number of highly educated professionals who regularly immigrated into USA during1990-1993. According to data of UN economic commission for Europe, in the period 1991.-1993, (graph 2.), net migration from former socialist countries was 2,285.000-2,735.000 individuals. Most (net migration) left states of former SSSR 1,000.000 to 1,100.000 individuals. Republics of former Yugoslavia follow 800.000 to 1,000.000, Albania 200.000 to 300.000 individuals and Romania 150.000 to 200.000 individuals. Bulgaria (40.000), former Czechoslovakia (25.000), Hungary (20.000) and Poland (50.000) relatively smaller number of individuals left these countries to migrate abroad. Largest number of immigrating population from countries of central and east Europe and from territories of former SSSR found refuge in Germany 1,502.000 individuals (net). During this period 2,535.000 individuals emigrated from five former socialist countries of east Europe, former SSSR and former Yugoslavia, and than from it 1,033.000 individuals migrated.

1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 Broj ljudi koji su em igrirali u EU u periodu 19911993 SSSR Bugarska eka republika Maarska Poljska Jugoslavija Albanija

Graph No. 2. Number of individuals who emigrated into EU during 1991-1993 During the period from1986.-1990., around 60.000 individuals left Africa with high school and faculty education, and according to the World Bank data over 23.000 highly educated individuals leave Africa each year. Most usually they go to their former colonial countries. Beside going to Great Britain, France, Holland and Portugal, also Middle East countries are destination (Saudi Arabia, gulf countries), but inter-African migration is also significant usual destination is the South African Republic because of significantly higher standard and economic development. Today in EU and USA live and work over 35 000 doctors who are born in some of African countries. They will not go back to Africa, because they would be wasted. Africa would hardly

progress without them, even that multinational companies are present there for 400 years. There are many countries that are similar to those African, and are scattered over other continents. For example, case of India where talented individuals come back from USA. Their return is however 30 times smaller from the number that is at the same time being pumped into USA. This concept does not give a solution and could be renamed into perpetual mobile of frist kind. So it could be concluded that brain drain is reality in global dimensions. In Japan and Korea 'Brain Circulation' is applied. They send gifted individuals to USA, but later they return because of better possibilities for further development. If it was only Japan in question any explanation would be unnecessary. These are the countries of similar gross national product and development but Korea is in that sense completely different, but it is registering the same trend as Japan. We conclude that beside gross national product and development, cultural model plays very important role. That means that Korea creates for those who return possibilities to continue research, development and shows entrepreneurship spirit at home. 3. Development problems of highly educated human recourse in Serbia 3.1 Yugoslavian-Serbian exodus of scientific and technical human resource Period before socialist transition: Serbia is known as traditionally emigrant country. Migration of Yugoslavian nations has long pre-history; it dates from times of Turkish conquests in 14th century and lasts until today. Cause for migration, especially of Serbian nation, Cvijic divides into historic, psychological and economic. In historic he primarily includes Turkish invasion and rebellion after which retaliation followed. Main psychological reasons are ferocity of foreign reign and uncertainty of property and assets. And behind these reasons was difficult moraleconomic situation created by foreign reign.

In the last 100-150 years, it is mostly economic migration, migration of our people in search of better life, migration from so called passive areas caused by economic reasons, big unemployment, agrarian overpopulation and late development of production power and late industrialization. Migrations were mostly going in the direction of transatlantic countries (America, Australia, and New Zealand) sparsely inhabited areas that had big free areas for settlement. During the mid-war period intensive Yugoslavian migrations in transatlantic countries continued and last until big crises during 1929-1933. Crises slowed down and decreases migrations, especially in the USA, and it comes to return movements, especially in the period 1932-1935. That is the time when inner-European migration are getting stronger, and main migration country was France. After a certain pause during the first after war years, migrations during sixties again reach big dimensions and move towards developed countries of West Europe. Most of emigrant contingents are made of rural mass (near 50%) and semi-qualified and non-qualified work force, but number of qualified and highly qualified human resources is not negligible. At the end of sixties near one million of our workers emigrated. One hundred employed Yugoslavians come around 15 employed abroad, of which half are young workers under 40 years of age. Migrations reach peak at the end of sixties to be rapidly slowed down and decreased at the time of oil crises (1973.-1975.). Economic recession, caused by oil crises leads to unemployment increase in all countries of European Union, and that phenomenon continues after the crises and lasts until our days.

Period from 1980 until 1990. According to 1981 census 17.000 of our citizens with higher education were working abroad, or 2,3% of total number of citizens older than 15 years of age. Data from American 1980 census show that that year there were 14.000 individuals of our origin with finished four year studies, and more than half of that number were individuals under 44 years of age. According to Australian 1981 census data out of active number of people of our origin 3.5% were with faculty, i.e. 2900 individuals. Grei estimates that only in the USA there are around 25.000 highly educated individuals born in our country, among which technical intelligence prevails, and in the west European countries he assumes that they count at least 12.000. . Beginning of nineties: In the context of preparation of government measures a research was realized about Our scientist and experts abroad in the Institute for international policy and economy from Belgrade (author of research Dr. Vladimir Grei) , with a goal to establish database about scientist of Serbian origin who live and work abroad. According to first results, within that project, during the period from 1979-1992 total of 828 scientist and researchers left Serbia, of which 181 with a title doctor of science and 156 with a title master of science. Data was gained by survey (questionnaire) that was realize at all faculties, science institutes and research development units (there are 304 scienceresearch units in Serbia) where at the time of survey there were 2403 master of science employed and 4052 doctors of science, i.e. 11014 science workers and researchers. Brain drain from Serbia during late nineties: Nineties were in the whole world and in Europe especially, in the sign of new migrations. They are new according to what caused them, by characteristics of migrants and especially are new according the character of migrations themselves. Todays migrations are more often a way of mobility of work force, and not emigration- immigration of population. Those new migrations, especially in Europe, means crossing state borders, but not necessary to leave but to stay home, to improve life quality of ones family without permanently leaving the environment one lived in and where was unable to fulfill wanted life standard. We are having in mind frequent migrations in frontier areas of east an d west European countries (Poland, Check Republic, Slovak R. Germany, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia, Croatia, Italy and similar) which create special migration area which is not bound, but intersected by state borders. Migrations of citizens from Serbia during nineties are different compared to migration from 1960.-1980. They become distinctly massive in a way of enforced emigrations of significant part of citizens of all age because of war activities in former Yugoslavia. But, migrations during nineties are massive also in a sense of massive emigrations of work capable citizens of younger age (due to total collapse of new Yugoslavian society in that period) Significant number of citizens left for European countries (Germany, Austria, Sweden, France), but also towards some East countries (Hungary, Check R. and Slovak R.) and south of Europe (Greece, Bulgaria, Turkey). Finally emigrations to transatlantic countries are not negligible (USA, Canada, Australia, Novi Zealand, South Africa). Table l. "Intended migrations of citizens of Serbia 1994 and 1999. Are you thinking of leaving the country (for longer) to go abroad?

Year

Yes, Yes, a seriously little

No

Tot al

1994 1999

11 21

19 25

% No. 70 100 1196 54 100 1380

3.2. Survey results on Technical faculty in Bor In favor of named research, within this work similar survey was conducted at Technical faculty in Bor during school 2006-2007; on 146 examinees, which includes students of all years at the Department for industrial management.

a b c

No 53; 36%

Yes, seriously 22; 15%

Do you think of leaving the country after finishing studies?

Yes, a little 71; 49%

a b c

No answer 47; 32%

Permanently 42; 29%

Temporary 57; 39%

Would you leave the country?

a b c d e f

No answer 47; 32% Something else (name what) 2; 1%

Expert/scientific specialization 14; 10%

Good conditions for scientific research 2; 1% High earnings 54; 38%

Obtaining work experiences 27; 18%

What is the reason for temporary leave ?

a b c d e f g

No answer 47; 32%

Impossibility to find employment in the country 35; 24%

Uncertainty 13; 9%

Impossibility To realize ideas 17; 12% Bad conditions for scientists 4; 3%

Low life standard 28; 19%

Political instability 2; 1%

What urges you to leave the country?

a b c d e f

No answer 44; 31%

USA 31; 21%

Novi Zealand 4; 3% Canada 12; 8%

Other countries 43; 29%

Australia 12; 8%

Countries of possible choice:

Without the agent 19; 13% a b c d e f Relatives 36; 25% No answer 45; 30%

Agency 10; 7%

Offers from foreign companies 16; 11% Friends emigrants 20; 14%

Channels for going abroad:

Based on research conducted on Technical faculty in Bor it could be concluded that there is passive position of students to leave the country and go abroad. To go abroad often thinks 15% students, only sometimes 49%, and 36% does not think of it at all. Answer to the question what stimulates to go abroad, the most common answers are low life standard, uncertainty and impossibility to find employment. The most common destinations are USA, Canada but interest for EU is also noticeable.

3.3. Migrations of highly educated resource towards our country

Migrations of highly educated resource towards our country could be of two kinds: a) return of highly educated resource towards our country from emigration; b) arrival of highly educated resource towards our country from other countries into our country Phenomenon any of listed migrations would be a good sign because: a) Return of highly educated resource from emigrations would meand that state measures are working and are aerating good climate and conditions for scientific research and research works, at least for resource that would significantly contribute to development of country. This phenomenon does not necessary mean that significant economic and social development is achieved in the country, but country is relaying on those resources from abroad for further development (examples for such migrations are India, South Korea, Turkey and other that created conditions for return of their highly educated resource, mostly from USA, as direct measure for their own development). b) Arrival of highly educated resource from other countries into our country could be achieved only if high level of social and economic development is achieved. That phenomenon exists even now smaller number of highly educated resource from east European countries is coming to our country because conditions are slightly better. It is noticed, however, that this arrival is only transitionally state to go further into developed countries of West Europe, USA, Canada, and so on. The fact itself that our country is still attractive for highly educated resource from some countries of east Europe, means that our country has development chances that must protect and develop. Conclusions of this works author remain that first sign of economic growth would be return of highly educated resource from emigration, that proper orientation of the country in technological development, with relaying on human resource in emigration, would be their massive return into the country and that entrance into the club of developed ones would be marked by migration of first highly educated resource from west Europe or other countries of the developed world . Economic migrations from our country in earlier decades meant flux mainly of spare, less educated resource. Todays emigrations mean flux of necessary, educated resource in which the state invested significant assets that would not be returned. Then, emigrants from earlier decades on provisional work abroad sent significant amounts of foreign currency into the county and in that way increased available foreign currency in the country. Todays emigrants take their foreign currency out of the country (including foreign currency gained by selling their apartments and other assets). Then, emigrants from earlier decades, mostly unqualified gained abroad new skills, which then on their return to the country contributed to increase of human resource quality in our country. Also, earlier emigrants mostly were unemployed here so their departure significantly softened unemployment issues. As it can be seen from data, almost half of todays emigrants from Serbia (47%) were employed while in the country. It is significant to note data from the survey, where we can see that these individuals, in 70% of cases, are employed abroad also, even though it is probably below their qualifications. 4. Managing development of highly educated human resource in Serbia proposal of measures to solve the existing problem

Intellectual exodus is the problems that our society would face permanently. Its solution is not in partial measures or short term measures. Solution is in profound long term policy. Reasons for this approach are in numerous limitations that are standing on the way, from deep social and economic crises, big open and hidden unemployment up to totally chaotic situation in economy that was left without its own sources for more dynamic development. Limiting factor is especially uncertain future of our country, its survival as political community. Listed limitation prompt strict selective approach to the problem, socially rational selection of priorities and determining optimal social consequences where certain problems would be solved. From that point, global social actions would be pointed out, which in mid term deadlines (deadline 8 to 10 years) should get emphasized social priority. Following social activities are included in these global priorities: First, strong confrontation with social crisis is necessary as is to find the right way to come out of it, ways that would lead to change of social climate which today is creating apathy and no perspective. Prime significance in that is given to overcoming the economic stagnation of many years, creating new fresh sources to accelerate economic development and selection of development priorities that would enable more thorough reconstruction of the existing production structure, its placement on higher and prosperous technological basis. Second, development strategy should not force only material production, but it should create assumptions for development of non-production branches, especially education, culture, health and science. Increased development of all activities should improve total economic and social development of the country, to influence improvement of social and life standard and created basis for systematic and permanent science and technological improvement. Third, dynamic development is necessary but it is not enough to solve the heavy burden of big unemployment. Unemployment problems should become the starting point of all development plans and programs. Systematic solutions and measures of development policy which would not consider priority importance of this problem, would inevitable miss their goal, they would be socially and economically unacceptable.

Fourth, having in mind that scientific-research work, especially those in the area of basic research, one of prime factors to increase general social work productivity and growth of total social wealth, substantial change of position of science and science workers becomes the first grade task, with the highest priority, in general and from the point of keeping young science human resources in the country. We are talking about insufficient investments in science and equipping the science work, and they are far below the average of developed countries and even below average investments of countries of similar development level. Significance of science is verbally respected, but very little in real social practice. These global social activities should be enriched with whole complex of specific measures immediately directed towards slowing the exodus of highly educated resource. Those specific measures include:

1. Strengthening the existing scholarship funds for young talents, with identification of suitable moral and material obligations they have towards the country and institutions that take care about their expert specialization. 2. Even more importance should be given to creation of new work positions and realistic conditions where young talented human resources could apply their expert knowledge and improve them even further. Open employment possibilities and more adequate work rating are necessary and prompt assumptions for their staying in the country. 3. It is necessary to elevate level and quality of university lectures, introducing teaching programs and new education models and above all freeing the creation potential of University of all bureaucratic restraints and changing the relations of the government towards University. Entrance into new civilization era demands computer literacy, many new knowledge and much higher level of education and culture. 4. It is time to think about establishing Centre of excellence that already exists in most developed countries. 5. Society should create conditions for temporary leave of talented resources for one year or two years of specialization abroad, with a goal to have permanent knowledge innovations. Positive effect on the migration process would come from establishing scientific-research centers in our country, which establishing would be organized in cooperation with other interested countries. We do not have one such international center, even though that in some scientific areas we have significant tradition and noticeable scientific results. 8. It would be good to initiate an action, with other undeveloped countries, at the United Nations regarding compensation of one part of expenses due to exodus of highly educated resource human resources. That question was already initiated in some UN studies, and by some scientists who offer concrete forms that should be used for compensation. 9. It is a wailing need to introduce a systematic record and permanent monitoring of the migration process of human resources, to have constant insight into its dimensions and tendencies, and to fill up one huge gap which disables to study this phenomenon in more detail. 10. Application of administrative mandatory measures is least desirable here and would only have counter-productive effects. However, that does not exclude need to act on moral factors and patriotic consciousness of young generation whose intellectual obolus should primarily serve to the development of their own country. It is necessary in the end to adduce limiting range of these suggested measures. Their social and selective performance would enable only to reduce this phenomenon of exodus of highly educated resource to some socially tolerable frame, to slow down the process and soften its negative effects. Even that limited goal that is set would mean a lot and asks for significant social efforts and much better organization of the society.

5. Conclusion Conclusion is that drain brain in our country, in the future period, would depend primarily on work and development condition in our country. These conditions largely depend on transition that our country is in, i.e. on development of economy, stability and total prosperity of the country, which are very much doubtful. That means that future migration of highly educated human resource is doubtful and also effects of suggested measures. It could be estimated that growing effects of attracting factors from immigration countries would be neutralized with significantly increased offer of highly educated human resource from east

European countries and that their total effect on emigration from our country in this decade would not significantly change. Having in mind our current reality, fulfillment of these global social activities deeply depends on the way that social crisis would be untangled and post-social transition, conditioned by the questions would political consensus be reached and what it would be. .

Literatura:
1. Kosti D.M., Ekonomist magazine, 2003 (www.ekonomist.co.yu/magazin/em165/tri/tri1.htm) 2. Komatina S., Odliv strunjaka iz Jugoslavije, Stanovnitvo (1997) 3. Grei V., Migracije visokostrunih kadrova i naunika iz SR- Jugoslavije, Beograd, 1996. 4. Puonja M.S., Upravljanje ljudskim resursima, odliv mozgova ili neto tree, Politika revija, 1 (2005) 267-286. 5. obelji. N.: Jugoslovenski egzodus naunika i tehnikih kadrova, SANU (1992). 6. Boli, S.: "Izmenjena sfera rada", u S. Boli (Urednik): Drutvene promene i svakodnevni ivot: Srbija poetkom devedesetih, ISI FF, Beograd, 1995. 7. Boli, S., "Iseljavanje radne snage i odliv mozgova iz zemlje tokom 90tih", u S. Boli, A. Mili: Srbija krajem milenijuma: razaranje drutva, promene i svakodnevni ivot, ISI FF, Beograd, 2002. 8. obelji N., Problemi migracije naunih i tehnikih kadrova, 1999, str.67- 82