PESIMISTA

Creado por
helpsupport el
16/02/2012

ESPERADO OPTIMISTA
Creado por
helpsupport
el 16/02/2012
Creado por helpsupport el 16/02/201

$B$93
$B$94
$B$95
$B$96

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

-8.00%
-10.00%
15.00%
10.00%

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

5.00%
6.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%

$B$88
$B$89

18,199

(10,353,933)
2%

18,199
1819923%

18,199
1819923%

eado por helpsupport el 16/02/2012

CASO SMC SAC

(Expresado en US$)
DATOS GENERALES
800

Precio esperado promedio anual

Costo de consultoria
Alquiler Camiones
Costo Materia Prima
MOD
Energia
Inversion Equipo
Periodo de depreciacin
Valor de Reventa Equipo
Dias Cobranza
Dias Pago a Proveedores
Dias Inventario de Suministros
Dias PP y PT
CPPC
Tasa de Impuesto a la Renta

120,000
200,000 Anuales
200 Por TM
100 Por TM
20 Por TM
36,000,000
5 Aos
2,000,000
56 Dias
28 Dias
7 Dias
16 Dias
10%
30%

CALCULOS GENERALES
INGRESOS
Ventas
Precio de venta
Ventas totales

1
15,000
800.00
12,000,000

Mil. TM
$ / unid

COSTOS

Costo Variable Unitario

Materiales
M.Obra
Energa

US$/TM
US$/TM
US$/TM

Costo Total de Produccion

Materiales
M.Obra
Energa
Depreciacin
Costo Total

US$
US$
US$
US$

DEPRECIACION

2
25,000
800.00
20,000,000

CAPITAL DE TRABAJO

200
100
20

200
100
20

3,000,000
1,500,000
300,000
7,200,000
12,000,000

5,000,000
2,500,000
500,000
7,200,000
15,200,000

6,000,000
3,000,000
600,000
7,200,000
16,800,000

8,000,000
4,000,000
800,000
7,200,000
20,000,000

9,000,000
4,500,000
900,000
7,200,000
21,600,000

Costos
Depreciacin
Utilidad operativa AI
Impuesto a la renta
Utilidad Operativa DI

7,200,000

2
3,111,111.11
97,222.22
675,556
427,777.78
3,456,111
627,222

Flujo Operativo
Ingresos

30%

200
100
20

1,866,666.67
58,333.33
533,333
256,666.67
2,201,667
1,254,444

2,201,667

FLUJO DE CAJA

5
45,000
800.00
36,000,000

200
100
20

7,200,000

Cuentas por cobrar

Suministros
Prod Proc y terminad
Cuentas por pagar
Total Inversion
Inversion Adicional

4
40,000
800.00
32,000,000

200
100
20

Depreciacion proyectada

3
30,000
800.00
24,000,000

3
7,200,000

3
3,733,333.33
116,666.67
746,667
513,333.33
4,083,333
1,254,444

4
7,200,000

4
4,977,777.78
155,555.56
888,889
684,444.44
5,337,778
627,222

5
7,200,000

5
5,600,000.00
175,000.00
960,000
770,000.00
5,965,000
-

12,000,000

20,000,000

24,000,000

32,000,000

36,000,000

4,800,000
7,200,000
-

8,000,000
7,200,000
4,800,000
(1,440,000)
3,360,000

9,600,000
7,200,000
7,200,000
(2,160,000)
5,040,000

12,800,000
7,200,000
12,000,000
(3,600,000)
8,400,000

14,400,000
7,200,000
14,400,000
(4,320,000)
10,080,000

(+) Depreciacin

7,200,000

7,200,000

7,200,000

7,200,000

7,200,000

Flujo de Caja de operacin

7,200,000

10,560,000

12,240,000

15,600,000

17,280,000

(1,254,444)

(627,222)

(1,254,444)

(627,222)

5,965,000

(1,254,444)

(627,222)

(1,254,444)

(627,222)

1,400,000
7,365,000

(140,000)
(1,600,000)

(140,000)
(1,600,000)

(140,000)
(1,600,000)

(140,000)
(1,600,000)

(140,000)
(1,600,000)

Flujo de Inversin
Inversion en KT
Recuperacion KT
Inversin en equipos
Valor de Salvamento Neto
Flujo de Caja de Inversion

(2,201,667)

Valor Mercado
(-) Valor en Libros
Utili. A.I.
(-) Irenta
Utilidad Neta
(+) Valor en Libros
Valor Residual
Costo Adquisicin
Dep. Acumulada
Valor en Libros

36,000,000
36,000,000
-

(36,000,000)
(38,201,667)

Alquiler perdido
Perdida Flujo Operativo
Flujo de Caja Economico

(38,201,667)

CPPC
VAN
TIR

4,205,556

8,192,778

9,245,556

13,232,778

22,905,000

10%
2,599,147
12%

ANALISIS DE PUNTO MUERTO O CRITICO

Var. % Precio
Var. % Ventas
Var. % Costo MP
Var. % Inversin

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%

ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
UNIDIMENCIONAL
Var. % Precio
-10%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
Var. % Costo MP

-4.23%
-7.17%
16.59%
9.30%

VAN

Var. % Ventas

2,599,147
(3,538,893.67)
(2,311,285.48)
(1,083,677.29)
143,930.91
1,371,539.10
2,599,147.29
3,826,755.49
5,054,363.68
6,281,971.87
7,509,580.06
8,737,188.26

-10%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%

VAN

VAN
2,599,147
(1,026,755.93)
(301,575.28)
423,605.36
1,148,786.01
1,873,966.65
2,599,147.29
3,324,327.94
4,049,508.58
4,774,689.22
5,499,869.87
6,225,050.51

Var. % Inversin VAN

-10%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%

2,599,147
4,165,418.91
3,852,164.58
3,538,910.26
3,225,655.94
2,912,401.62
2,599,147.29
2,285,892.97
1,972,638.65
1,659,384.32
1,346,130.00
1,032,875.68

2,599,147
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%

-10%
(6,550,992.79)
(5,446,145.42)
(4,341,298.05)
(3,236,450.67)
(2,131,603.30)
(1,026,755.93)
78,091.45
1,182,938.82
2,287,786.20
3,392,633.57
4,497,480.94

2,599,147
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%

-10%
(745,573.10)
482,035.10
1,709,643.29
2,937,251.48
4,164,859.67
5,392,467.87
6,620,076.06
7,847,684.25
9,075,292.45
10,302,900.64
11,530,508.83

-10%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%

2,599,147
5,392,467.87
4,833,803.75
4,275,139.64
3,716,475.52
3,157,811.41
2,599,147.29
2,040,483.18
1,481,819.06
923,154.95
364,490.83
(194,173.28)

-8%
(5,948,572.97)
(4,819,173.43)
(3,689,773.89)
(2,560,374.36)
(1,430,974.82)
(301,575.28)
827,824.26
1,957,223.79
3,086,623.33
4,216,022.87
5,345,422.41

-6%
(5,346,153.15)
(4,192,201.44)
(3,038,249.74)
(1,884,298.04)
(730,346.34)
423,605.36
1,577,557.06
2,731,508.76
3,885,460.47
5,039,412.17
6,193,363.87

-4%
(4,743,733.32)
(3,565,229.46)
(2,386,725.59)
(1,208,221.73)
(29,717.86)
1,148,786.01
2,327,289.87
3,505,793.74
4,684,297.60
5,862,801.47
7,041,305.33

-2%
(4,141,313.50)
(2,938,257.47)
(1,735,201.44)
(532,145.41)
670,910.62
1,873,966.65
3,077,022.68
4,280,078.71
5,483,134.74
6,686,190.77
7,889,246.80

-8%
(1,304,237.21)
(76,629.02)
1,150,979.17
2,378,587.37
3,606,195.56
4,833,803.75
6,061,411.95
7,289,020.14
8,516,628.33
9,744,236.53
10,971,844.72

-6%
(1,862,901.33)
(635,293.14)
592,315.06
1,819,923.25
3,047,531.44
4,275,139.64
5,502,747.83
6,730,356.02
7,957,964.22
9,185,572.41
10,413,180.60

-4%
(2,421,565.44)
(1,193,957.25)
33,650.94
1,261,259.14
2,488,867.33
3,716,475.52
4,944,083.72
6,171,691.91
7,399,300.10
8,626,908.29
9,854,516.49

-2%
(2,980,229.56)
(1,752,621.37)
(525,013.17)
702,595.02
1,930,203.21
3,157,811.41
4,385,419.60
5,613,027.79
6,840,635.99
8,068,244.18
9,295,852.37

BIDIMENCIONAL
Var. % Precio

Var. % Ventas

BIDIMENCIONAL
Var. % Precio

PESIMISTA
% Precio
% Ventas
% Costo MP
% Inversin

2%
(2,936,473.85)
(1,684,313.49)
(432,153.14)
820,007.22
2,072,167.58
3,324,327.94
4,576,488.29
5,828,648.65
7,080,809.01
8,332,969.36
9,585,129.72

4%
(2,334,054.03)
(1,057,341.50)
219,371.02
1,496,083.54
2,772,796.06
4,049,508.58
5,326,221.10
6,602,933.62
7,879,646.14
9,156,358.66
10,433,071.18

6%
(1,731,634.20)
(430,369.52)
870,895.17
2,172,159.85
3,473,424.54
4,774,689.22
6,075,953.91
7,377,218.59
8,678,483.28
9,979,747.96
11,281,012.65

8%
(1,129,214.38)
196,602.47
1,522,419.32
2,848,236.17
4,174,053.02
5,499,869.87
6,825,686.71
8,151,503.56
9,477,320.41
10,803,137.26
12,128,954.11

10%
(526,794.55)
823,574.46
2,173,943.47
3,524,312.48
4,874,681.50
6,225,050.51
7,575,419.52
8,925,788.53
10,276,157.55
11,626,526.56
12,976,895.57

2%
(4,097,557.79)
(2,869,949.60)
(1,642,341.40)
(414,733.21)
812,874.98
2,040,483.18
3,268,091.37
4,495,699.56
5,723,307.76
6,950,915.95
8,178,524.14

4%
(4,656,221.90)
(3,428,613.71)
(2,201,005.52)
(973,397.32)
254,210.87
1,481,819.06
2,709,427.26
3,937,035.45
5,164,643.64
6,392,251.83
7,619,860.03

6%
(5,214,886.02)
(3,987,277.83)
(2,759,669.63)
(1,532,061.44)
(304,453.25)
923,154.95
2,150,763.14
3,378,371.33
4,605,979.53
5,833,587.72
7,061,195.91

8%
(5,773,550.13)
(4,545,941.94)
(3,318,333.75)
(2,090,725.55)
(863,117.36)
364,490.83
1,592,099.02
2,819,707.22
4,047,315.41
5,274,923.60
6,502,531.80

10%
(6,332,214.25)
(5,104,606.06)
(3,876,997.86)
(2,649,389.67)
(1,421,781.48)
(194,173.28)
1,033,434.91
2,261,043.10
3,488,651.30
4,716,259.49
5,943,867.68

Var. % Inversin

ESCENARIOS
Var.
Var.
Var.
Var.

0%
(3,538,893.67)
(2,311,285.48)
(1,083,677.29)
143,930.91
1,371,539.10
2,599,147.29
3,826,755.49
5,054,363.68
6,281,971.87
7,509,580.06
8,737,188.26

ESPERADO
-8%
-10%
15%
10%

OPTIMISTA
0%
0%
0%
0%

5%
6%
-10%
-5%

0%
(3,538,893.67)
(2,311,285.48)
(1,083,677.29)
143,930.91
1,371,539.10
2,599,147.29
3,826,755.49
5,054,363.68
6,281,971.87
7,509,580.06
8,737,188.26

2,000,000
2,000,000
(600,000)
1,400,000
1,400,000

PESIMISTA

Page 4

PESIMISTA

-0.08
-0.1
0.15
0.1
Page 5

ESPERADO

Page 6

ESPERADO

0
0
0
0
Page 7

OPTIMISTA

Page 8

OPTIMISTA

0.05
0.06
-0.1
-0.05
Page 9