Global warming refers to the rising average temperature of Earth's atmosphere and oceans and its projected continuation.

In the last 100 years, Earth's average surface temperature increased by about 0.8 C (1.4 F) with about two thirds of the increase occurring over just the last three decades. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and scientists are more than 90% certain most of it is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[ These findings are recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries. Climate model projections are summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 C (2 to 5.2 F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 C (4.3 to 11.5 F) for their highest. The ranges of these estimates arise from the use of models with differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentrations. Greenhouse gases The greenhouse effect is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by gases in the atmosphere warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface. It was proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. Naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases have a mean warming effect of about 33 C (59 F). The major greenhouse gases are water vapor, which causes about 3670% of the greenhouse effect; carbon dioxide (CO2), which causes 926%; methane (CH4), which causes 49%; and ozone (O3), which causes 37%. Clouds also affect the radiation balance through cloud forcings similar to greenhouse gases. Factors contributing to global warming Global warming has a variety of causes. One of the largest factors contributing to global warming is the general problem of overpopulation and its many effects. The greater number of people consume more items which take more energy to make, they drive more cars, and create larger amounts of garbage. These factors all increase the global warming problem. Many different gases can increase the planet's temperature. The number of different products and human activities that contribute to global warming are so numerous that finding solutions to the problem is very difficult. Using a refrigerator releases dangerous gases, turning on the lights requires energy from a power plant, and driving to work causes gas emissions from the car. Countless other normal activities lead to global warming. Though having an atmosphere is important, the greenhouse effect may be making it excessively thick. The levels of gases covering the Earth have soared with industrialization, and developed countries now produce about 75% of greenhouse gases. The most common gas is carbon dioxide, accounting for about 50% of all greenhouse gases. Other gases, including methane, CFCs, nitrogen oxides, and ozone, also contribute to forming the greenhouse layer. Because these gases are produced by so many important and common processes, limiting their production to prevent global warming will be difficult. As population increases and Third World countries begin to use greater amounts of energy, the problem may expand rather than contract. Greenhouse gases

Atmospheric absorption and scattering at different electromagnetic wavelengths. The largest absorption band of carbon dioxide is in the infrared. Greenhouse gases are those that can absorb and emit infrared radiation.[1] In order, the most abundant greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are: water vapor carbon dioxide methane nitrous oxide ozone Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are determined by the balance between sources (emissions of the gas from human activities and natural systems) and sinks (the removal of the gas from the atmosphere by conversion to a different chemical compound). The proportion of an emission remaining in the atmosphere after a specified time is the "Airborne fraction" (AF). More precisely, the annual AF is the ratio of the atmospheric increase in a given year to that years total emissions. For CO2 the AF over the last 50 years (19562006) has been increasing at 0.25 0.21%/year Effects of global warming The effects of global warming are the ecological and social changes caused by the rise in global temperatures. Evidence of climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in humangreenhouse gas concentrations. Projections of future climate change suggest further global warming, sea level rise, and an increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) have agreed to implement policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases to avoid dangerous climate change. Changes in weather - Observations show that there have been changes in weather.[36] As climate changes, the probabilities of certain types of weather events are affected. Changes have been observed in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation. Widespread increases in heavy precipitation have occurred, even in places where total rain amounts have decreased. Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Reportconcluded that human influences had, more likely than not (greater than 50% probability, based on expert judgement), led to an increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events. Projections of future changes in precipitation show overall increases in the global average, but with substantial shifts in where and how precipitation falls. Climate models tend to project increasing precipitation at high latitudes and in the tropics (e.g., the south-east monsoon region and over the tropical Pacific) and decreasing precipitation in the sub-tropics (e.g., over much of North Africa and the northern Sahara). Evidence suggests that, since the 1970s, there have been substantial increases in the intensity and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes. Models project a general tendency for more intense but fewer storms outside the tropics. Accumulated cyclone energy in theAtlantic Ocean and the sea surface temperature difference which influences such, measured by the U.S. NOAA. Extreme weather Since the late 20th century, changes have been observed in the trends of some extreme weather and climate events, e.g., heat waves.[40] Human activities have, with varying degrees of confidence, contributed to some of these observed trends. Projections for the 21st century suggest continuing changes in trends for some extreme events. Solomon et al. (2007), for example, projected the following likely (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) changes an increase in the areas affected by drought; increased tropical cyclone activity; and increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis). Projected changes in extreme events will have predominantly adverse impacts on ecosystems and human society. Glacier retreat and disappearance

A map of the change in thickness of mountain glaciers since 1970. Thinning in orange and red, thickening in blue. Authors of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) found that, on average, mountain glaciers and snow cover had decreased in both the northern and southern hemispheres.[6] This widespread decrease in glaciers and ice caps had contributed to observed sea level rise. With very high or high confidence (see footnote 2), authors of the IPCC Working Group II Assessment (IPCC AR4 WG2, 2007) and Synthesis Report (IPCC AR4 SYR, 2007) made a number of projections relating to future changes in glaciers: Mountainous areas in Europe will face glacier retreat In Polar regions, there will be reductions in glacier extent and the thickness of glaciers. More than one-sixth of the world's population are supplied by meltwater from major mountain ranges. Changes in glaciers and snow cover are expected to reduce water availability for these populations. In Latin America, changes in precipitation patterns and the disappearance of glaciers will significantly affect water availability for human consumption, agriculture, and energy production. Oceans The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO2have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO2. The ocean have also acted as a sink in absorbing extra heat from the atmosphere. This extra heat has been added to the climate system due to the build-up of GHGs. More than 90 percent of warming that occurred over 19602009 is estimated to have gone into the oceans. Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation. Acidification About one-third of the carbon dioxide emitted by human activity has already been taken up by the oceans. [45] As carbon dioxide dissolves in sea water, carbonic acid is formed, which has the effect of acidifying the ocean, measured as a change in pH. The uptake of human carbon emissions since the year 1750 has led to an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units. Projections using the SRES emissions scenarios suggest a further reduction in average global surface ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units over the 21st century. The effects of ocean acidification on the marine biosphere have yet to be documented. Laboratory experiments suggest beneficial effects for a few species, with potentially highly detrimental effects for a substantial number of species.[45] With medium confidence, Fischlin et al. (2007) projected that future ocean acidification and climate change would impair a wide range of planktonic and shallow benthic marine organisms that use aragonite to make their shells or skeletons, such as corals and marine snails (pteropods), with significant impacts particularly in the Southern Ocean. Malnutrition With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that malnutrition would increase due to climate change. This link is associated with climate variability and change. Drought reduces variety in diets and reduces overall consumption. This can lead to micronutrient deficiencies. The WHO (referred to by Confalonieri et al., 2007) conducted a regional and global assessment to quantify the amount of premature morbidity and mortality due to a range of factors, including climate change. Projections were made over future climate change impacts. Limited adjustments for adaptation were included in the estimates based on these projections. Projected relative risks attributable to climate change in 2030 varied by health outcome and region. Risks were largely negative, with most of the

projected disease burden due to increases in diarrhoeal disease and malnutrition. These increases were primarily in low-income populations already experiencing a large burden of disease. Extreme events With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would increase the number of people suffering from death, disease and injury from heatwaves, floods, storms, fires and droughts.[76] Floods and weather disasters Floods are low-probability, high-impact events that can overwhelm physical infrastructure and human communities. Confalonieri et al. (2007) reported that major storm and flood disasters have occurred in the last two decades. The impacts of weather disasters is considerable and unequally distributed. For example, natural disasters have been shown to result in increased domestic violence against - and post-traumatic stress disorders in women. In terms of deaths and populations affected, floods and tropical cyclones have the greatest impact in South Asia and Latin America. Vulnerability to weather disasters depends on the attributes of the person at risk, including where they live and their age, as well as other social and environmental factors. High-density populations in low-lying coastal regions experience a high health burden from weather disasters. Heatwaves Hot days, hot nights and heatwaves have become more frequent. Heatwaves are associated with marked short-term increases in mortality. For example, in August 2003, a heatwave in Europe resulted in excess mortality in the range of 35,000 total deaths. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is projected to increase. The health burden could be relatively small for moderate heatwaves in temperate regions, because deaths occur primarily in susceptible persons. Drought The effects of drought on health include deaths, malnutrition, infectious diseases and respiratory diseases. Countries within the "Meningitis Belt" in semi-arid sub-Saharan Africa experience the highest endemicity and epidemic frequency of meningococcal meningitis in Africa, although other areas in the Rift Valley, the Great Lakes, and southern Africa are also affected. The spatial distribution, intensity, and seasonality of meningococcal (epidemic) meningitis appear to be strongly linked to climate and environmental factors, particularly drought. The cause of this link is not fully understood. Fires In some regions, changes in temperature and precipitation are projected to increase the frequency and severity of fire events. Forest and bush fires cause burns, damage from smoke inhalation and other injuries.

Infectious disease vectors With high confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) projected that climate change would continue to change the range of some infectious disease vectors. Vector-borne diseases (VBD) are infections transmitted by

the bite of infected arthropod species, such as mosquitoes, ticks, triatomine bugs, sandflies, and blackflies. There is some evidence of climate-change-related shifts in the distribution of tick vectors of disease, of some (non-malarial) mosquito vectors in Europe and North America. Climate change has also been implicated in changes in the breeding and migration dates of several bird species. Several species of wild bird can act as carriers of human pathogens as well as of vectors of infectious agents. Dengue With low confidence, Confalonieri et al. (2007) concluded that climate change would increase the number of people at risk of dengue.[76] Dengue is the world's most important vector-borne viral disease.[88] Several studies have reported associations between dengue and climate, however, these associations are not entirely consistent. Observed malaria mortality: Although showing such over the past century of global warming, there are also other factors impacting the past and future of malaria. Malaria The spatial distribution, intensity of transmission, and seasonalty of malaria is influenced by climate in Sub-saharan Africa.[89] Rainfall can be a limiting factor for mosquito populations and there is some evidence of reductions in transmission associated with decadal decreases in rainfall. The effects of observed climate change on the geographical distribution of malaria and its transmission intensity in highland regions remains controversial. There is no clear evidence that malaria has been affected by climate change in South America or in continental regions of the Russian Federation. There is still much uncertainty about the potential impact of climate change on malaria at local and global scales. A paper by researchers from the University of Oxford and the University of Florida published in Nature in May 2010 concluded that claims that a warming climate has led to more widespread disease and death due to malaria are largely at odds with the evidence, and that "predictions of an intensification of malaria in a warmer world, based on extrapolated empirical relationships or biological mechanisms, must be set against a context of a century of warming that has seen marked global declines in the disease and a substantial weakening of the global correlation between malaria endemicity and climate."[90][91] Other infectious diseases There is good evidence that diseases transmitted by rodents sometimes increase during heavy rainfall and flooding because of altered patterns of human-pathogen-rodent contact Ozone layer depletion While the effect of the Antarctic ozone hole in decreasing the global ozone is relatively small, estimated at about 4% per decade, the hole has generated a great deal of interest because: The decrease in the ozone layer was predicted in the early 1980s to be roughly 7% over a 60 year period.] The sudden recognition in 1985 that there was a substantial "hole" was widely reported in the press. The especially rapid ozone depletion in Antarctica had previously been dismissed as a measurement error. Many were worried that ozone holes might start to appear over other areas of the globe but to date the only other large-scale depletion is a smaller ozone "dimple" observed during the Arctic spring over the North Pole. Ozone at middle latitudes has declined, but by a much smaller extent (about 45% decrease).

 If the conditions became more severe (cooler stratospheric temperatures, more stratospheric clouds, more active chlorine), then global ozone may decrease at a much greater pace. Standard global warming theory predicts that the stratosphere will cool.[21] When the Antarctic ozone hole breaks up, the ozone-depleted air drifts out into nearby areas. Decreases in the ozone level of up to 10% have been reported in New Zealand in the month following the break-up of the Antarctic ozone hole. Consequences of ozone layer depletion Since the ozone layer absorbs UVB ultraviolet light from the Sun, ozone layer depletion is expected to increase surface UVB levels, which could lead to damage, including increase in skin cancer. This was the reason for the Montreal Protocol. Although decreases in stratospheric ozone are well-tied to CFCs and there are good theoretical reasons to believe that decreases in ozone will lead to increases in surface UVB, there is no direct observational evidence linking ozone depletion to higher incidence of skin cancer in human beings. This is partly because UVA, which has also been implicated in some forms of skin cancer, is not absorbed by ozone, and it is nearly impossible to control statistics for lifestyle changes in the populace. Increased UV Ozone, while a minority constituent in the Earth's atmosphere, is responsible for most of the absorption of UVB radiation. The amount of UVB radiation that penetrates through the ozone layer decreases exponentially with the slant-path thickness/density of the layer. Correspondingly, a decrease in atmospheric ozone is expected to give rise to significantly increased levels of UVB near the surface. Increases in surface UVB due to the ozone hole can be partially inferred by radiative transfer model calculations, but cannot be calculated from direct measurements because of the lack of reliable historical (pre-ozone-hole) surface UV data, although more recent surface UV observation measurement programmes exist (e.g. at Lauder, New Zealand). Because it is this same UV radiation that creates ozone in the ozone layer from O2 (regular oxygen) in the first place, a reduction in stratospheric ozone would actually tend to increase photochemical production of ozone at lower levels (in the troposphere), although the overall observed trends in total column ozone still show a decrease, largely because ozone produced lower down has a naturally shorter photochemical lifetime, so it is destroyed before the concentrations could reach a level which would compensate for the ozone reduction higher up. Help Prevent Further Ozone Depletion The nations of the world have taken a crucial step in joining together to halt the production and use of ozone-destroying chemicals. But the work can't stop there. Here's what you can do: Know the rules: It is illegal to recharge refrigerators, freezers and home/vehicle air conditioners with CFCs. If you have an older vehicle with an air conditioner*, have it serviced by a qualified technician, and make sure the CFC is recaptured and recycled by technician who is specifically certified to do this work. If you don't use your air conditioner or if the vehicle is about to be scrapped make sure a qualified technician recaptures and recycles the CFC. *Vehicles of model year 1995 or newer do not use CFCs. The same rules apply to older refrigerators freezers and home air conditioners, which may contain CFCs. Don't buy or use portable fire extinguishers that contain halons.