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Recommendation: BUY
CHIMIMPORT
INDUSTRY: HOLDING COMPANY COUNTRY: BULGARIA
17 June 2010
Shares Information Price (BGN) 52 weeks Price Change 52 weeks Price Range Market Cap (BGN) Market Cap (EUR) Shares Outstanding-ordinary Shares Outstanding-preferred Free Float Basic EPS Dilluted EPS P/E (ttm)-basic P/S (ttm) P/BV Net Profit Margin ROA ROE
17 June 2010 2.07 -5.48% 1,85 - 2,97 475,272,000 243,002,715 144,909,000 84,691,000 20.32% 0.79% 0.57% 3.62 0.75 0.47 2.70% 3.66% 15.12%
Finance
Real Estate
Air Transport
Chimimport has 65 subsidies and 7 associate companies with less then 50% ownership. Some of the largest public companies that fall under the Holdings structure are Central Cooperative Bank (4CF BU), Zarneni Hrani (T43 BU), Parahodstvo Bulgarian River Shiping Company (5BR BU), Oil and Gaz exploration (4OI BU). The latter account for a significant share of Chimimports sales. The total market capitalization of Chimimports share in the four public companies is BGN 270 mln. The holding also owns large non public companies such as Armeec (insurance and finance), Bulgaria Air (Transport), Hemus Air (transport). The sector that accounts for the highest stake of the Holdings sales and net incomeis the finance and insurance sector.
Chimimport 2009 BGN'000 Sales Cost of Goods Sold Subscribed premiums Compensations paid Net result Interest income Interest expenses Net interest income Incomes from dealings with securities Operating expenses Incomes from investments in associates Other income net Income before taxes Taxes Net income Minority interest Net intcome Production 259,965 240,926 9,094 (12,420) (3,326) 14,195 (8,604) 22 (1,424) 19,902 (2,366) 17,536 Finance Sector 36,627 278,579 254,395 24,184 196,056 (104,127) 91,929 88,712 (146,219) (560) 30,535 125,208 (8,333) 116,875 Transport 354,566 319,608 4,077 (17,237) (13,160) 8,589 (14,078) 7,015 (1,753) 21,571 (1,650) 19,921 Real Estate & Construction 3,956 3,732 429 (176) 253 (238) 2 241 (26) 215 Intercompany eliminations (40,886) (31,360) (7,875) (2,249) (5,626) (34,413) 34,413 0 (5,410) 11,313 (1,366) (10,615) 60 (10,555) Total 614,228 532,906 270,704 252,146 18,558 175,243 (99,547) 75,696 106,086 (157,826) 6,477 25,994 156,307 (12,315) 143,992 14,461 129,531
Central Cooperative Bank is currently the 12th largest bank in Bulgaria in terms of assets. The bank has more than 50 branches and 200 offices around the country; CCB is well positioned in the agrarian sector and is the leading bank servicing the agrarian niche within the country. CCB also develops the retail banking services and is aggressively penetrating the credit and debit card market. Central Cooperative Bank executes brokerage and investment services and is a primary dealer of Bulgarian Treasury notes. In 2008 the bank acquired a small bank in Macedonia as CCB aims to broaden its cross border operations and presence. Net interest income of the bank grew with a CAGR of 23.26% over the last three years and is BGN 70 mln in 2009. Historically the bank has reported low level of non performing loans; as at the end of 2009 CCB has 4.28% bad loans compared to 6.4% for the banking system as a whole. Nevertheless CCB has 4.15% of total credits categorized as under monitoring; the highest risk for the bank would be to classify those as non performing loans in subsequent periods. Recognized provisions in the end of 2009 are at the amount of BGN 22.07 mln.; the coverage ratio of provisions to stated NPLs is 44%. Interest income of the bank for 2009 is BGN139 mln accounting for 27% of the revenues in the Holdings exposure to the finance sector; thus Central Cooperative bank represents one of the most important entities in Chimimport Holding and is a major revenue generating unit.
Armeec is a leading insurance company in Bulgaria with a 10.2% market share in the general insurances market. The firm ranks fourth in terms of market share after Bulstrad, DZI and Lev Ins. Armeec is not active in the life insurance business. The company was established in 1996 with main shareholders being the Ministry of Defense and several partner firms within the Ministry of Defense system. The capital of the company is BGN15.02 mln. In 2002 Chimimport acquired 92% of Armeec and since then the company has been included within the Holdings structure. Armeec is present in more than 80 towns through 56 agencies and 45 representation units. The distribution network is organized through 4000 agents and 220 insurance brokers within the whole country. The distribution network includes products and projects designed in collaboration with Central Cooperative Bank, Bulgaria Air and the pension business of the Holding, thus creating synergies across Chimimports structure and possibilities for expanding market share. Armeec offers all classes of general insurance services including: home and auto insurances, technical insurances, agriculture related insurances and others; the company is very active in the air and maritime transport insurance services. In 2008 Armeec recorded an outstanding growth in subscribed premiums as they increased from BGN 90 mln in 2007 to BGN146 mln in 2008; the growth of 60% outpaced the average growth of the insurance business of 20% during that year; In 2009 Armeec registered a slight increase in subscribed premiums by 0.68%. As of the end of 2009 subscribed premiums are at the amount of BGN 148 mln; thus revenues of Armeec represent 29% of Chimimports total financial revenues. CCB Life is part of Chimimport Holding that engages in the life insurance business. The company is licensed by the Financial Supervision Commission in Bulgaria in 2007. The company has a minor market share of 0.73% in 2009; nevertheless CCB Life operates in a very competitive environment and tries to capture a business niche that is relatively underdeveloped and new in Bulgaria. CCB Life can benefit in the long term through the collaboration and expertise of the other businesses in Chimimport, in particular Armeec, and thus will try to increase its market share and presence in the life insurance segment. Health Insurance Company CCB is licensed by the Financial Supervision Commission and provides voluntarily health insurance services to individuals. The company offers coverage of prophylactic medical examinations to its clients, hospital medical costs coverage and others; Health Insurance Company CCB has a market share of 0.8% and will try to capitalize on the expertise of the other subsidiaries in the Holding and expand its market presence. CCB Sila was set up in 1994 and is one of the first to offer auxiliary pension insurance services in the country. The company manages three pension funds. CCB Sila enjoys a market share of 5.08% in terms of number of insured people in the managed funds. The company ranks sixth among total of ten companies operating in the pension insurance business. Lukoil Garant is another company that operates in the pension insurance business. It manages three funds and has 4.48% market share in this segment. Chimimport also has a significant ownership (49%) in Saglasie AD which is another company present in the pension insurance business. Saglasie has a market share of 12.08% in terms of number of people insured. Companys total assets as at the end of 2009 amount at BGN 359 mln. marking an increase by 41% from 2008 level. Thus Chimimport through its subsidiaries and associated companies has a total of 21.64% market share in the pension insurance segment making it one of the biggest players after Doverie AD and Allianz Bulgaria AD. CCB assets management is a managing company that specializes in the management of collective investment schemes and the management of discretionary client portfolios. The company administers three mutual funds each one with different investment profile and characteristics. CCB assets management manages nearly BGN 30 mln. assets as of December 2009. Chimimport owns 23.08% of Capital Management REIT, a special investment purpose vehicle that specializes in factoring services and securitization of receivables. The firm has a registered capital of BGN 830 153. Capital Management REIT has assets at the amount of BGN 61 mln. and net income amounting to BGN 3,1 mln in 2009.
Selected data BGN '000 Subscribed premiums Interest income Incomes from dealings with securities Operating expenses Incomes from investments in associates Net income
Source: Chimimport audited 2009 report
Air Ban is the other Chimimports company operating in the air transport segment. It is licensed to perform surveillance from air, passengers and cargo transport, flights for emergency medical assistance, sightseeing from air. Air Ban operates four helicopters that can perform flights over land and water areas and can ground in small urban areas. Lufthansa Technik Sofia is a joint venture between Chimimports Bulgarian Aviation Group and Lufthansa Technik AG engaged in repairing and servicing planes not only those of Bulgaria Air and Hemus Air but also offering its services to clients from Europe, Middle East and North Africa. The company has competitive advantage in terms of price-quality. Chimimports share in the joint venture is 20%. Fraport Twin Star Airport Management is the airport operator of the civil airports in Varna and Burgas (the biggest towns at the Black Sea coast). The company has concession contracts for both the airports for 35 years and services more than 100 Bulgarian and foreign airline companies executing charter and regular flights from Varna and Burgas airports. In the year 2009 Fraport has serviced more than 2.925 mln passengers and 28.33 thousand flights in the two airports. Sales in 2009 amount to BGN 69.26 mln and net income realized is BGN 14.90 mln; Burgas airport accounts for BGN 12.23 mln of the net result for last year. Companys equity is BGN 52.34 mln and long term liabilities as at the end of 2009 are BGN 20.12 mln. Investments in Fraport Twin Star Airport Management are directed toward increasing the capacity to service passengers (by 40%), modernization and improving the safety measures. Currently new terminal buildings and passenger terminals for the two airports that are expected to cost more than EUR 110mln are being projected. Fraports sales in 2008 amount to EUR 40.65 mln and net income is EUR 8.3 mln. Chimimport holds 40% of Fraport Twin star Airport Management. Chimimport has majority stake (82.89%) in the public company Parahodstvo Bulgarian Rivershipping Company - the leader in river shipping in Bulgaria. Companys shares are publicly traded from the beginning of 2004. In 2006 Chimimport won a tender organized by the Privatization Agency and bought the states share in Parahodstvo Bulgarian Rivershipping Company 70%. The company offers transportation of bulk, general, liquid and oversized cargoes, Ro-Ro transportation Ruse-Reni-Ruse and Passau-Vidin-Passau, regular container lines and ferryboat shipments, forwarding services in river, sea, road and combined transport, chartering of river and sea vessels and agency services. Chimimport has engaged to invest in Parahodstvo Bulgarian Rivershipping Company EUR 25 mln in 20072011 at present EUR 15 mln have already been invested; the main purpose of the investment program is to renovate the ship fleet and build a logistic centre of more than 25,000 m2 and storage base. In 2009 companys sales amount to BGN 59.73 mln 5% up y-o-y and net income is BGN 4.24 mln. Assets are BGN 88.96 mln and total liabilities BGN 20.42 mln as at year end 2009. Mayak KM is a subsidiary of Parahodstvo Bulgarian Rivershipping Company, producing deck taps, hydraulic systems for operating marine ships and floating vessels. Among the major clients of the company is Rolls Royce. Chimimport controls 51% of VTC a company offering tugboat services at ports, agency and chartering services. The market share of VTC is 45% of the tugboat services market. The main assets of the company are three tugboats; money invested till now amount to USD 3.3 mln. Ship Machine Building is indirectly owned by Chimimport the company produces ship equipment: ramps, deck mechanisms, ship doors and stairs; does ship building and ship repair works. Among Ship Machine Buildings clients are Parahodstvo Bulgarian Rivershipping Company, Bulyard Korabostroitelna Industria, Odesos. The company is a supplier to world leaders in ship building as MacGregor, TTS Ships Equipment, Volharding Shipyards Newbuilding BV and others. Chimimport holds 30% stake in the public company Ship repair plant Odesos. The company does ship repair works and is engaged in engineering activities. Odesos repairs all kind of passenger, freight and tanker ships. 95% of Odesos sales come from clients from Western Europe Nederland, Germany, Sweden,
Greece and also USA, Thailand, Ukraine and other. Odesos accounts for about 40% of the ship repair market in the region of Varna. The major investment in Odesos valued at USD 25 mln is the floating dock it has carrying capacity of 20,000 tones and is among the largest facilities in the Black Sea region vessels with 60,000 tones dead weight, 220 meters length and 32.5 meters width can be repaired on the dock. In the year 2009 Odesos sales nearly halved to BGN 29.25 mln compared to BGN 57.44 mln a year ago and net income amounted to BGN 2.95 mln compared BGN 12.04 mln in 2008. The companys total assets are BGN 76.67 mln as at the end of 2009; total liabilities amount to BGN 13.63 mln and Debt to Assets is 0.18. Chimimport owns 99% of Port Lesport, Varna. From 2006 the company has a 30 year concession contract to operate the port Lesport which is of national importance and is accessible all year. Port Lesport offers the full range of port services. Investments in Port Lesport will be directed to enlarge the port and build two terminals and storage facilities. Port Balchik is 100% owned by Chimimport and has a concession contract to operate the port terminal in Balchik. Investments will be directed to put the port into compliance with the highest European quality standards. The port takes advantage from its proximity to the grain production region of Dobrudja.
Selected data (BGN '000) Total sales Result from non financial operations Interest expenses Administrative expenses Result from investments in associated companies Net income-transpost business
Source: Chimimport audited 2009 report Sector Overview Sector Overview
Chimimport Group actively supports and coordinates the activities of several public and non public companies from the Production sector. Chimimport provides financial support to the companies, and consultations regarding their technological development, construction and implementation of new production facilities in the operating process; Chimimport also explores new markets and facilitates the connection with foreign counterparts and trading partners. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD is the only Bulgarian company performing the full range of activities related to exploration, development and exploitation of oil and gas and the conversion of the raw materials into finished products. The equity capital of Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD amounts to BGN 12.23 million. In September 2002 the company became public and its shares were admitted to trading on the floor of Bulgarian Stock Exchange. Chimimport owns directly and through related parties 53.66% of the capital. In 2004 Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD created three new companies, in which it was the sole shareholder: Geophysical Research Ltd., Bulgarian Drilling Company Ltd. and Bulgarian Petroleum Refinery Ltd. In 2008 was signed the contract for the merger of the Bulgarian Drilling Company Ltd., Geophysical Research Ltd. and PDNG OIL PLC in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD owns 12 concession contracts for crude oil and / or natural gas in the following fields: Tyulenovo, Dolni Dubnik, Dolni Lukovit, Dolni Lukovit - West, Staroseltsi, Gorni Dubnik, Bardarski Geran, Selanovtsi, Bulgarevo, Marinov Geran, Bhutan South and Durankulak. For 2009 the company reported net income of BGN 6.3 million, which marked a decrease by 13.5%, compared to 2008 7.3 million. Sales also shrunk to BGN 27.3 million, compared to 2008 BGN 47.6 million. In 2008 operating expenses amounted to BGN 40.8 million, in 2009 they fell to BGN 24.2 million. Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD maintains and develops good business relations with leading companies and suppliers in the oil industry from the EU, U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.
Zarneni Hrani Bulgaria is one of the leaders on the Bulgarian market in trading, storing and marketing of grain and oilseeds; including the production and sale of vegetable oils, bottled oil, production and marketing of biodiesel. The capital of Zarneni Hrani Bulgaria is BGN 170.79 million. Zarneni Hrani Bulgaria was created in November 26, 2007 through the merger of the following 8 companies: Slunchevi Luchi Bulgaria AD, Sofia (former public company), Zarneni Hrani Trade AD, Beck International PLC, Zaeneni Hrani- Valchi Dol AD, Zarneni Hrani Balchik, Zora AD, Prima agrohim Ltd. and Chimimport agrochemicals. As a result of the merger, all assets and liabilities of the merging companies were combined into the newly established company Zarneni Hrani Bulgaria. The company has a Biodiesel plant in Provadia which is of crucial importance for its profitability. Company's business strategy is to focus on extending the geographical scope of activities and enter into neighboring countries. In 2008 ZHBG managed to increase sales to BGN 177.09 mln. but couldnt sustain the results achieved in the previous year and profit dropped to BGN 7.09 mln. Operating expenses in 2008 increased to BGN 175.38 mln. Total debt in that year decreased to BGN 140.20 mln, compared to 2007 when it was BGN 152.86 mln. In 2009 sales increased by 6.00% to BGN 187.69 mln; operating expenses increased at a smaller pace - by 4.4% y-o-y, to BGN 183.14 mln. In 2009 net profit slightly increased by 4.4% to reach BGN 8.2 mln compared to BGN 7.9 mln in 2008. Another big public company part of Chimimport Group is Asenova Krepost AD. The company has more than 40 years experience in the production of flexible polymer packages for the agriculture and construction industry. It also has more than 20 years tradition in the production of woven bags and flexible containers of polymeric materials. Asenova Krepost operates on a number of foreign markets in collaboration with companies from Russia, France, Norway, England, and Greece. Chimimport Invest, the majority owner of Chimimport Holding, acquired 50.6% of the capital of Asenova Krepost, after a tender offer in the summer of 2009.
Selected data (BGN '000) Sales Operating expenses Interest income Incomes from investments in associates Incomes from dealings with securities Net income
Source: Chimimport audited 2009 report
Production and commerce sector - 2009 259,965 (8,604) 9,094 22 14,195 17,536
Valuation model
In order to perform fair valuation of Chimimports business we have chosen to apply a sum of the parts appraisal model. However the approach that we chose differs slightly from the conventional application. Difficulties stem from the fact that Chimimport Holding consists of more than 60 subsidies and associated firms most of which are not publicly traded; therefore the valuation of such firms becomes an almost impossible process due to the lack of available financial information for all the companies in the structure and the numerous assumptions that have to be undertaken. That is why we chose to perform the appraisal based on sector data. Chimimport has four distinct businesses as already mentioned and the Group provides reliable information regarding the performance of all of them; we consider that the methodology is appropriate as the sector data captures the financial results of all the companies, part of the holding. We apply a relative valuation model in order to value the main business sectors in which Chimimport operates; we use the price to sales multiple because it is the least exposed to change ratio and is more stable than net income. Our comparable data is from the relevant sectors in Eastern and Central Europe (source Bloomberg). The value that we obtain by applying the method assumes that Chimimport owns 100% of all of its subsidiaries; nevertheless this is not the case and that is why we make an appropriate adjustment by subtracting a minority interest share from Chimimports value. We find the minority share by applying the average share of minority profits over the last three years to total company value. Finally we add the associated companies value to derive the total fair value of Chimimport Holding. The following table shows the values of associated companies we have used for Capital management REIT and Odesos we have used company market values, for Fraport Twin Star Airport Management we have used relative valuation model applying price to sales multiple and for POK Saglasie we have used the investment value for the company taken from Chimimports balance sheet.
Associated companies Capital management REIT* Odesos* Fraport Twin Star Airport Management POK Saglasie Total associates value - BGN Chimimport's share Company value BGN 23.08% 40,111,500 30.00% 55,144,348 40.00% 56,100,600 49.28% Chimimport's share in company's value BGN 9,257,734 16,543,304 22,440,240 17,317,000 65,558,279
The next table presents the cumulative valuation of Chimimport. Our valuation model shows the fair value per share is BGN 4.9 which offers a 139% upside potential to the current market price.
Sector sales BGN '000 Production Financial Sector Transport Real Estate & Construction Total sector value BGN 000 Minority interest adjustment BGN 000 Adjusted sector value BGN 000 Associated companies value BGN 000 Total Chimimport value BGN '000 259,965 511,262 354,566 3,956 Sector value BGN '000 150,780 705,542 336,838 2,176 1,195,335 (126,705.5) 1,068,629 65,558 1,134,188
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