Meteorol. Appl.

11, 97113 (2004)

DOI:10.1017/S1350482704001161

A case of cyclogenesis over the western Mediterranean Sea with extraordinary convective activity
M. Kurz1 & A. Dalla Fontana2 1 Wittelsbacherstr. 53a, D-67434 Neustadt/Weinstrae, Germany Email: M.H.Kurz@t-online.de 2 ARPAV-Centro Meteorologico di Teolo, via Marconi 55, 35037 TEOLO (PD), Italy Email: adallafontana@arpa.veneto.it

An interesting case of cyclogenesis over the western Mediterranean Sea, accompanied by extraordinary convective activity, is described in this paper. The event took place between 18 and 21 July 2001. Its synoptic features are examined on the basis of quasi-geostrophic theory using numerical analyses from the global model of Deutscher Wetterdienst GME and from the ECMWF. Particularly remarkable is the large amount of latent heat released in the condensation process, which produces signicant modications of the ow. These effects are evident both in the elds of relative vorticity as well as potential vorticity in the upper levels. The infrared Meteosat satellite pictures are used to follow the evolution of the upper-level cloudiness associated with the process and its connection with the values of vorticity and winds at 300 hPa. Radar pictures, reectivity and radial velocity from Doppler surveillance radar in the Veneto region allowed us to outline the structure of the mesoscale convective system a squall line that developed during the night of 1920 July over Italy, in the Padana Valley. The features of this system were compared with a conceptual model proposed by Houze et al. (1989). The vertical wind shear, as inferred from the radial velocity pictures, was likely to play an important role in the development of the storm. Finally, an analysis of the vertical stability in the pre-storm environment was performed using sounding data from Udine, 20 July 2001, 00 UTC. The analysis shows the importance in the storm development of the potential instability released by ascent during the transit of the baroclinic system, a process that was investigated using the vertical prole of equivalent potential temperature and an estimate of ascending motion given by the ECMWF model.

1. Introduction
Between 18 and 21 July 2001 a cyclogenesis event took place over the western Mediterranean Sea. The cyclone moved quickly north-eastwards inuencing the northern parts of Italy. The strong ascending motions ahead of and above the cyclone led to the formation of a convective system during the night of 1920 July that struck the Veneto region, in northeast Italy, bringing hail, stormy winds and heavy rainfall. This kind of phenomenon is not unusual in the Padana Valley during the summer season when the atmosphere is almost always potentially unstable. Thus, when external forcing occurs, for example with a cold front or a trough, it is quite likely that convective overturning will follow. The case presented here is rich in interesting features at all scales of observation. On a synoptic scale the cyclogenesis took place following a typical type B development, as dened by Petterssen & Smebye (1971), when an upper level vorticity maximum

approached a quasi-stationary frontal zone in the lower troposphere. On the mesoscale, as already pointed out, a squall line developed during the nocturnal hours, triggered by the passage of the cyclone over northeast Italy. This system presents some interesting features in accord with a conceptual model by Houze et al. (1989) that have been highlighted through the analysis of radar pictures. In the description of this case we used numerical analyses from the global model of Deutscher Wetterdienst GME and from ECMWF and satellite images in the infrared channel from Meteosat. Furthermore, to describe the vertical stability of the atmosphere we used sounding data from Udine station located in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a border region north-east of Veneto. To outline the structure of the convective system we used reectivity and radial velocity data obtained from the surveillance C-band Doppler radar owned by the Meteorological Ofce of Teolo, located on a hilltop near Padua, in the Veneto region.

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Figure 1. Surface analyses with isobars, fronts and synoptic observations from 18 July 2001, 12 UTC and 19 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right).

2. Synoptic description and diagnosis

As outlined above, a cyclogenesis event over the western Mediterranean took place following the scheme of a typical type B-development. The surface cyclone crossed northern Italy and reached its strongest intensity there before moving further north-eastwards towards the Balkans. The passage of the low was connected with extraordinarily heavy convective overturning above northern Italy. The cyclogenesis occurred south of a large surface and collocated upper air low over western Europe containing deep cold air. The frontal zone in the lower troposphere ran initially from southern Spain to the Alps, i.e. from southwest to northeast. It was embedded in a broad trough in the surface pressure eld (Figure 1) and connected with vorticity maximum at 850 hPa above southern Spain and the Gulf of Genoa. It was a shallow feature reaching vertically upwards only to about 700 hPa. The upper vorticity maximum (300 hPa) was at rst positioned above western Biscay, i.e. more than 1300 km from the lower frontal zone (Figures 2 and 3). It was embedded in a small trough at the cyclonic ank of a jet streak running northwest to southeast, i.e. perpendicular to the lower front. The jet streak was connected with an upper frontal zone (500300 hPa) lying ahead of an upper ridge and running in the same direction. At the beginning there was no dened connection between the lower and the upper frontal zones. With isotherms running from west to east in the midtroposphere, a clear component of the thermal wind was towards the lower front. That was accordingly valid also for the upper current so that a quick relative movement of the upper vorticity maximum towards the lower frontal zone was possible. The approach of the upper trough with its vorticity maximum took place during the 24 hours between 18 July, 12 UTC, and 19 July, 12 UTC. Owing to the vertically increasing positive vorticity advection (PVA) ahead of the maximum, an ascending motion was released connected with divergence aloft and convergence in the middle and lower levels leading to

the production there of cyclonic vorticity. As shown by the vertical cross section in Figure 4, a sloped zone developed in which the vorticity steadily increased and extended downwards to engage nally with the surface level. This process was connected with pressure fall at all levels. At the surface, a closed low developed with a central pressure below 1005 hPa east of the Balearics on 19 July, 12 UTC. Together with the upper trough, the cold air in the upper and middle levels moved forward in the direction of the frontal zone in the lower troposphere primarily due to the cold air advection (CA) working in nearly all levels at rst, but surely also due to the effect of the ascending motion being effective ahead of the trough. As a result, the baroclinicity increased strongly, especially in the middle levels, and a continuous frontal zone developed ahead of the trough with a slope of 1:150 at the beginning and 1:80 by 19 July, 12 UTC (see Figure 4). Connected with this change, the upper jet streak moved forward relative to the trough, nally reaching maximum speed ahead of it. The vertical coupling between the lower frontal zone and the upper vorticity maximum was completed on 19 July, 12 UTC. The analyses of the events on 19 July in Figures 13 show the typical features of a baroclinically unstable wave, namely the surface low ahead of the upper trough in the region with strong upper PVA and divergence, ascending motion in the middle levels and convergence in the lower troposphere, and the upper trough, on the other hand, above the region with strong CA west of the surface low giving rise to a forcing of descent with lower divergence and upper convergence. In such a system a further intensication has to be expected in all levels. Indeed, the surface low deepened to a central pressure below 1000 hPa during the following 12 hours (Figure 5), as it moved to northern Italy following the lower warm air advection (WA). Also, the vorticity at 850 and 700 hPa increased from 10 to 16105 s1 . At 500 hPa, however, the vorticity remained the same (21105 s1 ), whereas it signicantly decreased at 300 hPa (from 30 down to 24 105 s1 ; compare Figures 3 and 7).

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Figure 2. GME analyses of geopotential (solid lines, in gpdam) and temperature (dashed lines, in C) for 850, 700, 500 and 300 hPa (from bottom to top) from 18 July 2001, 12 UTC and 19 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right).

The missing vorticity increase in the mid-troposphere and the decrease in the upper levels can be traced back to the effect of the release of large amounts of latent heat in the area together with ascending motion, cloud formation and precipitation. The cooling due to the ascent might thus be strongly reduced or even fully compensated. On the other hand, the forcing for the ascent is enforced giving rise to stronger convergence below and stronger divergence above the level with the maximum vertical velocity. Considering the temperature at the different levels in the region of the moving upper vorticity maximum, it has to be stated that the temperature at 300 hPa itself remained nearly constant (around 40 C) apart from the rst time, whereas a warming by 6 K took place at 500 and 700 hPa

in the period between 19 July, 12 UTC, and 20 July, 12 UTC (Figures 2 and 6). The temperature at 500 hPa increased from 21 to 15 C, and at 700 hPa from 3 to 3 C. Since there was ascent ahead of the vorticity maximum during the whole period, the warming can be explained only by the effects of either WA relatively to the moving maximum or release of latent heat, or by both. Here we can assume that the latter effect provided the biggest contribution to the temperature increase in the mid-troposphere. The enhanced divergence above the level of the maximum ascent (up to 5 105 s1 ) provides a logical explanation for the vorticity decrease at 300 hPa (Figure 7). This is conrmed when considering analyses

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Figure 3. GME analyses of a) winds and relative vorticity (in units of 3 105 s1 , negative values dashed) for 300 hPa (top) and 850 hPa (bottom) and b) divergence (in units of 5 106 s1 , negative values dashed) for 300 hPa (top) and 950 hPa (bottom) from 18 July 2001, 12 UTC and 19 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right).

of the isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) which is dened by IPV = g( f + ) p where g is gravity acceleration, f is the Coriolis parameter, is the potential temperature and is relative vorticity at surfaces of constant potential temperature. This property remains constant for particles under adiabatic conditions. Here, analyses of

the IPV at the 320 K surface of constant potential temperature (as shown in Figure 8) are considered. This isentropic surface had a pressure height of between 300 and 500 hPa in the area of interest. Corresponding to the 300 hPa vorticity maximum there was an IPV maximum northwest of the Bay of Biscay at the beginning, moving south-eastwards and approaching the lower frontal zone and the developing surface low until 19 July, 12 UTC. During this time the amount of the IPV remained nearly constant at 1113 units, indicating the

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Figure 4. Vertical cross sections of: (a) potential temperature (in C) and (b) relative vorticity (in 105 s1 ) from 18 July 2001, 12 UTC and 19 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right). (c) Geographical positions of the cross-sections at different times.

nearly adiabatic movement of the air particles forming this maximum, which had a position between 300 and 350 hPa. Afterwards, however, a signicant decrease of the IPV is reected in the analyses: down to only 5 or even 4 units in the region where the 300 hPa vorticity maximum was situated. As result, the original IPV maximum disappeared fully for a while (20 July,

00 UTC), only becoming visible again on 20 July, 12 UTC, as a very weak feature compared with the next extreme following upstream. This decrease in IPV has to be traced back to nonadiabatic processes, i.e. the release of latent heat leading to a stabilisation below and a destabilisation above

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Figure 5. Surface analyses with isobars, fronts and synoptic observations from 20 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right).

the level where its contribution to the temperature increase is strongest. According to the denition of IPV, a diabatically forced stabilisation causes an increase in this otherwise conservative property of the air, whereas a diabatically forced destabilisation causes a decrease. The latter statement can be applied to the signicant IPV decrease reected by the IPV analyses on the 320 K surface in our case. The release of latent heat and the associated anticyclogenetic effect in the upper levels surely also contributed to the changes that affected the vorticity eld downstream of the upper trough. With the formation of a ridge in the isohypses ahead of the trough, a region with increasing negative vorticity developed north of the trough between the main vorticity maximum and another one downstream of it which was quickly advected north-eastwards. The negative relative vorticity in this area reached close to 10 105 s1 indicating conditions with very small absolute vorticity and therefore small dynamic stability or even indifference. It was this area that saw the main cloud formations and the strongest convective activity of the system. The described effects were even much more pronounced in the relevant analyses of ECMWF. Comparing the vorticity analyses for 300 hPa from GME and ECMWF for 18, 19 and 20 July, 12 UTC (Figure 9), good agreement can be obtained for the rst and the last days apart from the fact that the amounts of relative vorticity are generally somewhat higher in the ECMWF analyses according to their higher resolution. By contrast, the analyses for 19 July, 12 UTC, are signicantly different: instead of the strong maximum in the trough and the rapid vorticity decrease downstream in the GME analysis, the ECMWF analysis shows an elliptic area with strong negative values of vorticity just ahead of the trough connected with bands of high

positive vorticity southeast and northwest of it. This is due to the strong anticyclonic curvature of the analysed wind eld immediately ahead of the trough together with a splitting of the jet stream around a distinct area of lower velocity. This analysis is very similar to the 12-hourly forecast and points to the fact that the ascent simulated in the ECMWF model was so strong that the upper divergence to which the ascended air was subjected, inuenced the wind and vorticity distribution much more than in the other model. Owing to the inadequate resolution of the upper-air observations it is not possible to determine which analysis was the more realistic.

3. Satellite images description

This section describes how the cyclogenetic development over the Mediterranean was reected by the distribution and change over time of cloudiness in the middle and upper levels as shown by the infrared images obtained from METEOSAT. In order to allow a direct comparison, the GME analyses of winds and relative vorticity at 300 hPa were superimposed on the images in Figure 10 covering the interval between 18 July 2001, 12 UTC and 20 July 2001, 00 UTC. At noon on 18 July (Figure 10a) the cloud distribution was characterised by two large cyclonically bent cloud bands winding around the centre of the surface and upper low above the English Channel. The eastern band was situated downstream of an upper vorticity maximum (i.e. in the area of PVA), whereas the western band lay not ahead but on the cyclonic ank of the vorticity maximum above the western Bay of Biscay moving south-eastwards. There was nearly no cloud connected with the quasi-stationary frontal zone in the lower troposphere above the western Mediterranean.

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Figure 6. GME analyses of geopotential (solid lines, in gpdam) and temperature (dashed lines, in C) for 850, 700, 500 and 300 hPa (from bottom to top) from 20 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right).

Some 12 hours later (Figure 10b), the image shows medium and upper cloud both ahead of and behind the trough and the vorticity maximum, which by now had reached northern Spain. This means that the cloud distribution was not only determined by the PVA ahead of the trough. Above the lower front to the southeast of Spain, there was still only very little cloud.

By 19 July, 12 UTC (Figure 10c), however, the cloud at the rear of the eastward-swinging trough had progressively disappeared, whereas an impressive cloud shield had developed in the area of strong PVA ahead of the trough. The nearly circular shape of this shield emphasises the very strong divergence of the ow in the upper levels. This is in good agreement with the model analysis of the divergence at 300 hPa in Figure 3b.

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Figure 7. GME analyses of a) winds and relative vorticity (in units of 3 105 s1 , negative values dashed) for 300 hPa (top) and 850 hPa (bottom) and b) divergence (in units of 5 106 s1 ) for 300 hPa (top) and 950 hPa (bottom) from 20 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from left to right).

According to surface observations, this cloud shield formed the upper part of a deep cloud mass that was producing rain and also thunderstorms north of the surface low that had formed to the east of the Baleares and its warm front. The rapid development of this cloud mass indicated that the cyclogenetic coupling between the upper trough and the lower frontal zone had now been completed, and the whole tropospheric air was being subjected to a strong ascending motion.

As already mentioned, the ECMWF analysis for 300 hPa on 19 July was quite different in showing an elliptic area with negative vorticity just ahead of the trough, and two bands of high positive vorticity southeast and northwest of it. As demonstrated by Figure 11, the area with negative vorticity coincides to a great extent with the upper cloud shield. During the following 12 hours, the cloud shield expanded a little bit and extended band-like in a

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Figure 8. GME analyses of a) isentropic potential vorticity (IPV, in 5107 K m2 kg1 s1 ) at 320 K surface of potential temperature from 18 July 2001, 12 UTC, 19 July 2001, 12 UTC, 20 July 2001, 00 and 12 UTC (from top left to bottom right), thick arrows indicate the maximum value associated with the upper level trough, and b) pressure of this surface (in units of 25 hPa) from 19 July 2001, 00 and 20 July 2001, 00 UTC (left to right).

Figure 9. ECMWF analyses of winds and relative vorticity (in units of 1105 s1 ) for 300 hPa from 18 July 2001, 12 UTC, 19 July 2001, 12 UTC and 20 July 2001, 12 UTC.

north-easterly direction. By 20 July, 00 UTC (Figure 10d), it covered the whole of northern Italy, the Alps, Austria and Czech Republic and as far as southern

Poland. Its southern part still lay in the area of strong PVA and related divergence between the upper trough and the ridge which began to form north of it. This was

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Figure 10. METEOSAT infrared images superimposed to GME analyses of relative vorticity (in units of 3105 s1 ) and winds at 300 hPa. (a) 18 July 2001, 12 UTC; (b) 19 July 2001, 00 UTC; (c) 19 July 2001, 12 UTC; (d) 20 July 2001, 00 UTC.

the phase of the most intense convective activity. The radar pictures show that an organised convective system developed inside the circulation of the cyclone, crossing the Veneto region from southwest to northeast. But this was not discernible from the satellite imagery alone.

4. Description and diagnosis of the radar pictures

During the afternoon of 19 July, near the quasistationary surface front, many thunderstorms struck the Veneto region, particularly the at plain. In the night, as the deepening cyclone and the upper vorticity maximum approached, an organised convective system,

linear in shape, developed to the southwest and crossed the region north-eastwards, bringing hail, stormy winds and heavy rainfall. The C-band Doppler surveillance radar owned by the Meteorological Centre of Teolo, located on the top of a hill near Padua, followed this event with volumetric scans every 5 minutes. The pictures of reectivity and radial velocity exhibit the structure of the convective system and its evolution. It was an example of a squall line, with features in agreement with a conceptual model of a squall line in its mature stage proposed by Houze et al. (1989). Each reectivity picture presented here is composed of a horizontal picture (CAPPI) at a height of 1.5 km, together with a vertical section in the direction of storm motion, projected along the two Cartesian axes. The range explored by the radar beam is 120 km with a

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Cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea the ground of over 60 dbz, developed from the ground to the highest levels. In this phase hail and stormy winds were detected at ground level. After 30 minutes (Figure 12d) the squall line was almost crossing the radar site. Reectivity values were on average over 55 dbz and reached values over 60 dbz. The strong attenuation of the radar beam behind the line of convection due to intense precipitation is very noticeable; here the radar echo is very low or absent, and the next picture will show that precipitation is indeed present and widespread. Notice also that the convective cell north of the radar site has evolved into another linearshaped convective system. At 2315 UTC (Figure 13a) the storm had crossed the radar site. In this phase the system was already in the dissipating stage, as is evident from the lower values of reectivity and the large area of precipitation that is almost stratiform behind the convective region. This area was previously hidden by the blocking effect of the convective front. A comparison can here be made with a conceptual model of mature stage squall lines proposed by Houze et al. (1989) (Figure 13b). In this model the convective line formed by new developing cells is followed by the old dissipating cells and by the trailing area of precipitation, which is almost stratiform with lower reectivity values. In the region of new cell formation an area with lower reectivity values is present in the medium-upper levels, spreading out with height. These features are easily recognised in the Figure 13a. A further correspondence could be found by observing radial velocity pictures. The rst picture considered is a velocity PPI at 4.5 of elevation (Figure 14b) with the corresponding reectivity (Figure 14a). Comparing this image with the conceptual model in Figure 13b we can note the rear inow descending towards the convective front, the inow ahead of the convective front in the area of new cell formation, and the outow in the upper levels ahead of the storm. An expected front-to-rear upper-level ow is not observed; however, the ows depicted in the conceptual model are storm relative, whereas we are observing the velocities with respect to the radar. If we subtract the storm velocity from the radar velocities we can nd the right values. Note that the inow band ahead of the convective region is broadening and the wind is intensifying southwards, favouring the propagation towards the southeast and a general rotation clockwise of the storm (see the sequence in Figures 12 and 13a). Looking at the orientation of zero isodop we see that in the pre-storm region the wind rotates clockwise with height, starting from east in the lower levels up to slightly south-west in the upper levels. This wind shear is likely to play a key role in the development of this storm because of the low value of convective available potential energy (see section 5 below). On the other side, behind the convective front, the orientation of the zero isodop suggests a counterclockwise rotation of the wind with height, from west in the lower levels up to just about south-east in the upper levels. This leads to the convergence of

Figure 11. METEOSAT infrared image at 19 July 2001, 12 UTC superimposed to ECMWF analysis of relative vorticity (in units of 1 105 s1 ) and winds at 300 hPa.

spatial resolution of 1 km. No clutter lter was applied in these pictures, but looking at the vertical prole it is possible to differentiate the echoes of precipitation. Furthermore, you will note two large shadow cones located to the west and to the south which are due to the blocking effect of higher hills surrounding the radar site. At 2130 UTC the squall line crossed the border between Veneto and Emilia-Romagna, moving north-eastwards (Figure 12a). Stronger reectivity values at this stage were generally between 50 and 55 dbz. The vertical section shows the maximum reectivity in the medium layers at a height of between 3 and 7 km, as is typical for the initial stages of development. Another convective cell has just crossed the radar site. Fifteen minutes later (Figure 12b) reectivity also increased in the lower levels, precipitation at the ground was intensifying and, most likely, so was the descending motions inside the storm. From the vertical section the cell appears to be sloping downstream; this could be due to the presence of a vertical wind shear but it could also simply be a result of the movement of the storm during the scan interval. In fact, the antenna speed was somewhat low, two rounds per minutes, and the time interval between the lowest (0.5 ) and the highest (15 ) elevation of the radar scan was about 5 minutes. A rough calculation can be made to see how this affects the radar observation of the storm. Since the storm motion based on the observed displacement between subsequent pictures was estimated at about 40 km/h, the calculated shift of the top of the convective cell during the scan interval (5 minutes) should be about 3 km. This is not enough to explain the observed shift which was about 6 km. So a real tilting downstream of the cell has to be assumed; the presence of a sheared environment will be clearer from the analysis of the radial velocity pictures below. At 2200 UTC (Figure 12c) a chimney with reectivity values over 50 dbz, and with a maximum value near

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Figure 12. (a), (b) and (c) CAPPI reectivity pictures (dBz) with vertical sections parallel to the storm motion from 19 July 2001, 2130 UTC, 2145 UTC and 2200 UTC respectively; (d) CAPPI reectivity picture from 19 July 2001, 2230 UTC. Colour gures are available on the internet at http://digilander.iol.it/atrok/metapps/index.html

the ow along the convective region and divergence in the upper levels, in agreement with the conceptual model. The second picture considered is a velocity PPI at 1.3 of elevation (Figure 14d) with its corresponding reectivity (Figure 14c). The region just ahead of the leading front behind the 30 km circle to the northeast and behind the 60 km circle to the south-east is noticeable. In this region the wind is oriented away from the radar, probably owing to the outow from the low-level divergence in the area with precipitation. This region of outow corresponds to the gust front in the conceptual model and plays an important role in originating new convective cells ahead of the storm. During the following night, the storm tended to spread and decay further, with other scattered thunderstorms

still affecting the region of Veneto until the morning of 20 July, though with decreased intensity.

5. Consideration of vertical stability and its change over time

During the summer season thunderstorm activity is not unusual in the Padana Valley where the atmosphere is almost always, even if only to a small degree, potentially unstable, including during the hours of darkness. Statistics for the occurrence of thunderstorms in the summer season do indeed show a secondary maximum during the night, when diabatic forcing from the ground is absent. Thus, when external forcing is in operation, for example in a cold front or a trough

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Figure 13. (a) CAPPI reectivity picture (dBz) and vertical section parallel to storm motion from 19 July 2001, 2315 UTC; (b) conceptual model of a squall line viewed in a vertical section oriented parallel to the storm motion (Houze et al. 1989). Colour gures are available on the internet at http://digilander.iol.it/atrok/metapps/index.html

with ascending motion, it is quite likely that convective overturning will occur (Cacciamani et al. 1995). Looking at the soundings, some qualitative observations could be made about the genesis and intensity of the convective phenomena in this case. The skew-T plot sounding from Udine on 20 July 2001, 00 UTC (Figure 15a) is the nearest available sounding being some 150 km northeast of Teolo in Friuli Venezia Giulia region. At this time the storm was already inuencing the Veneto at plains but not yet Friuli, so this sounding could be representative of the environment before the arrival of the squall line. The vertical prole looks very stable: a strong thermal inversion is present at ground level, and another inversion layer is present between 800 hPa and 850 hPa. Referring to the moist adiabat from the lifted condensation level, the buoyancy is negative up to 600 hPa; above this there is a layer with small positive buoyancy until 400 hPa. This means that taking a particle from the lowest level and forcing its ascent, its motion is not accelerated before 600 hPa; also, above this level, a small amount of energy is available. These

features strongly inhibit any convective vertical motion so in these conditions a trigger of convection, without any external forcing, is very unlikely. Some stability indices could be derived from the sounding data:
500 500 LIFTED INDEX: LI Tobs Tlifted from surface

= 0.96
500 500 SHOWALTER INDEX: SI = Tobs Tlifted from 850

= 2.12 CAPE: = 168.19 J/kg KO Index: KOI = 1 500 + 2 e obs = 1

700 e obs

850 e obs

1000 e obs

LI shows a weak latent instability and CAPE a small convective energy available for developing severe thunderstorms. In fact, values of LI less than 5 and of

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Figure 14. (a) PPI reectivity (dBz) at 4.5 of elevation from 19 July 2001, 23 UTC; (b) PPI wind (m/s) at 4.5 at the same hour, also the winds are sketched accordingly to the orientation of the zero isodop (dashed line); (c) PPI reectivity (dBz) at 1.3 of elevation from 19 July 2001, 23 UTC; (d) PPI wind (m/s) at 1.3 of elevation at the same hour, also the regions of outow are shown. Colour gures are available on the internet at http://digilander.iol.it/atrok/metapps/index.html

CAPE over 1500 J/Kg are usually required to assess a signicant probability of severe thunderstorms. The SI value indicates a higher probability of thunderstorms, but values less than 3 are usually associated with severe convection (Showalter 1953, Galway 1956). The vertical proles of potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature are shown in Figure 15b. An examination of the vertical prole of equivalent potential temperature allows us to explore the potential instability that is associated with layers in which equivalent potential temperature decreases with height (Kurz 1998). The atmosphere is seen to be potentially unstable between 750 and 650 hPa, with potentially unstable layers between 850 and 800 hPa and between 500 and 450 hPa. The potential instability between 500 and 1000 hPa was calculated in terms of the KO Index; its value of 1 indicates a signicant potential instability for the whole layer. In fact, a KOI value of less than 2 is usually required to indicate an appreciable degree of potential instability in the medium-low

troposphere. Thus, where a suitable external upward lifting is superimposed, a convective overturning has to be expected. To see how this potential instability is released due to the passage of the baroclinic wave, it is useful to see how the vertical proles of temperature and dew-point temperature are modied after an upward displacement, for example by 100 hPa (Figure 16). As a rough estimate of this ascending motion we could take the value estimated by the ECMWF model from the run of 19 July 2001, 12 UTC, for 20 July 2001, 00 UTC (+12 h forecast). The model forecasts an area of strong ascending motion extending vertically from 850 hPa to 500 hPa just over the at plains of Veneto region, reaching a maximum value of 135 hPa/h at 850 hPa. The modied sounding (Figure 16) was created graphically, applying the same vertical displacement of 100 hPa (i.e. the same vertical motion) to all levels,

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Figure 15. (a) Skew-T plot from sounding of Udine, 20 July 2001, 00 UTC; (b) vertical prole of potential temperature ( and e ) and equivalent potential temperature (e) derived from sounding data.

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Figure 16. Skew-T plot of the modied sounding. It is obtained from the sounding in Figure 15a lifting all the relevant points by 100 hPa. Proles of dew-point temperature, temperature (solid lines) and moist adiabat from 900 hPa (dashed) are shown.

and so must be considered only an approximation of the real prole. The lifted values of temperature and dew point were found by following the dry adiabat and the line of constant mixing ratio, respectively, from the initial level until the level 100 hPa higher. If saturation occurred, the changes of temperature and dewpoint above the saturation level were given by the moist adiabat. As result of these changes the thermal inversion above 850 hPa has been destroyed and the environment is almost saturated from about 700 hPa up to the highest levels of the troposphere. Since the lowest level (900 hPa) is also saturated, a particle lifted from there will follow the moist adiabat depicted (dashed line). Above 700 hPa, a large area with positive buoyancy is now present, and upward acceleration has to be expected up to 250 hPa. Furthermore, due to the saturation of the surrounding atmosphere, no breaking effects result due to entrainment of surrounding air, but only cooling due to the adiabatic expansion and warming from delivery of latent heat. As seen in the synoptic description, the result is a net warming of air, at least in the middle levels. However,

below 700 hPa the environment is not completely saturated and a layer with negative buoyancy is still present, so more time is needed for a full release of convection. This delay could lead to a more intense development of convective motions because the upper levels of the troposphere are cooling due to the ascending motion working aloft. The vertical prole becomes unstable and saturated from the lowest to the highest levels of troposphere. Hence, in this case, looking only at the thermodynamic instability would have led to an underestimate of the thunderstorm potential and intensity. A more satisfactory result is obtained by evaluating the potential instability, together with the ascending motions estimated by the model, to see how the sounding could be timely modied. As an estimate of the vertical velocity we can use the maximum value forecasted at 850 hPa over Veneto by the ECMWF model, namely 135 hPa/h. With this value, an ascent of 100 hPa needs about 45 minutes, a time interval that is consistent with the time scale of the phenomenon, in which the squall

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Cyclogenesis over the Mediterranean Sea line crosses the region between 2130 UTC on 19 July and 00 UTC on 20 July 2001. role in the development of the storm. In addition, the analysis of vertical stability executed on sounding data from Udine, 20 July 2001, 00 UTC, shows the importance of the potential instability released during the transit of the baroclinic wave. The ascending motions associated with the cyclone led to substantial modication of the vertical proles of temperature and dew-point temperature, initially very stable, and nally to an environment conducive to severe convection with larger convective available energy and high levels of moisture. The evaluation of potential instability is hence very important in estimating thunderstorm potential, especially in the nocturnal hours when heating from the ground is virtually zero.

6. Conclusions
In this paper we have described an interesting case of cyclogenesis over the western Mediterranean Sea that led to the formation of intense convective overturning above the at plains of the Veneto region in northeast Italy, 1821 July 2001. The analysis has been conducted using data from different sources, such as numerical models, vertical soundings, satellite and radar. This allowed us to observe the phenomena at the synoptic scale as well as the mesoscale. On a synoptic scale the cyclogenesis took place following the classic Petterssen scheme: the interaction between the lower frontal zone and the upper vorticity maximum led to the formation of a cyclone in which strong ascending motions were accompanied by the release of great amounts of latent heat. The cloudiness associated with this process was clearly identied in the infrared METEOSAT satellite pictures. Extraordinary convective activity was triggered by the cyclone over the plains of Veneto, where an organised convective system a squall line formed during the evening and the night of 19 July. By analysing radar pictures, good agreements were obtained with the conceptual model of mature-stage squall lines proposed by Houze et al. (1989). Furthermore, from the analysis of the radial velocity pictures it was possible to estimate the signicant vertical wind shear in the pre-storm region that was likely to play an important

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