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Reliance Industries
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net operating income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 42.4 (23.7) (741bp) (13.6) 2QFY12 78,569 9,844 12.5 5,703 % chg (qoq) 8.4 (26.0) (397bp) (22.1)
`771 `923
12 Months
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Oil & Gas 252,460 1.1 1,066/689 775420 10 16,752 5,046 RELI.BO RIL@IN
For 3QFY2012, Reliance Industries (RIL) reported 42.4% yoy growth in its top line. However, EBITDA and PAT declined by 23.7% yoy and 13.6% yoy, respectively, due to a decline in KG D6 gas production and lower Gross refining margins (GRMs). Robust 3QFY2012 performance: RILs net sales increased by 42.4% yoy to `85,135cr, above our estimate of `78,364cr. However, RILs EBITDA decreased by 23.7% yoy to `7,285cr on account of lower profits from all the three main segments. GRMs stood at US$6.8/bbl in 3QFY2012 compared to US$9.0 in 3QFY2011 and US$9.1/bbl in 2QFY2012. Production from KG-D6 stood at 41mmscmd in 3QFY2012 compared to 45mmscmd in 2QFY2012. Other income increased by 131.7% yoy to `1,717cr, which resulted in net profit decreasing by only 13.6% yoy to `4,440cr, slightly below our estimate of `4,519cr. RIL turns net debt-free; announces buyback details: During 3QFY2012, RIL turned into a net debt-free company, as its debt stood at `74,503cr and cash stood at `74,539cr, as on December 31, 2011. RIL announced share buyback program of 12cr shares (`10,440cr) through open market purchases at a buyback price not exceeding `870/share. Outlook and valuation: RILs refining and petrochemical segments profits declined during 3QFY2012. Going forward, although there are some concerns on the KG basin gas output, we believe RIL along with BP will optimize producing blocks in KG D6. Moreover, the stock is currently trading at a PE of 12.0x FY2012E and 11.2x FY2013E, compared to its past five years trading average of 17.7x forward PE. Thus, we maintain our Buy recommendation on RIL with an SOTP target price of `923. Key financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/BV (x) EV/ Sales (x) EV/ EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 44.7 11.4 17.0 26.9
3m
(1.2) (5.4)
1yr
(12.1) (18.2)
3yr
90.0 36.1
FY2010 203,740 34.7 18,818 24.5 74.9 15.2 10.3 14.3 9.4 1.6 1.4 9.0
FY2011 265,811 30.5 20,368 8.2 58.9 14.7 13.1 13.8 10.6 1.5 1.0 6.9
FY2012E 316,591 19.1 21,032 3.3 64.3 11.3 12.0 12.9 9.6 1.3 0.8 6.7
FY2013E 332,554 5.0 22,567 7.3 69.0 11.4 11.2 12.4 9.7 1.2 0.7 6.1
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
3QFY2012 3QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 2QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 85,135 74,190 77,850 7,285 8.6 1,717 2,570 694 5,738 6.7 1,298 22.6 4,440 4,440 5.2 59,789 45,585 50,244 9,545 16.0 741 3,359 549 6,378 10.7 1,242 19.5 5,136 5,136 8.6 (13.6) (13.6) 4.5 (10.0) 131.7 (23.5) 26.4 42.4 62.8 54.9 (23.7) 78,569 64,661 68,725 9,844 12.5 1,102 2,969 660 7,317 9.3 1,614 22.1 5,703 5,703 7.3 (22.1) (22.1) (19.6) (21.6) 55.8 (13.4) 5.2 8.4 14.7 13.3 (26.0)
3QFY2012 3QFY2011 % chg (yoy) 2QFY2012 % chg (qoq) 19,781 76,738 2,832 208 99,559 15,982 52,524 4,178 180 72,864 23.8 46.1 (32.2) 15.6 36.6 18,366 73,689 3,894 235 96,184 7.7 4.1 (27.3) (11.5) 3.5
Estimates
78,364 8,071 10.3 5,821 4,519
Actual
85,135 7,285 8.6 5,738 4,440
Variation (%)
8.6 (9.7) 1.7 (1.4) (1.7)
(` cr)
36.7
26.2
(%)
50.0
(` cr)
20% 0% 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 Refining 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 Others 3QFY12 Petrochemicals Oil and gas
8.6
2,000 -
(` cr)
3,000 2,000 1,000 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 1QFY12 2QFY12 3QFY12
PAT PAT growth (RHS)
(%)
20.0
(%)
Segment-wise performance
Refining: During the quarter, crude processing stood at 17.3mn tonnes (compared to 16.1mn tonnes in 3QFY2011), with refinery reporting capacity utilization of 110%. Despite modest rise in crude throughput, higher petroleum product prices led to a 46.1% yoy increase in the refining segments revenue to `76,738cr. However, GRMs declined to US$6.8/bbl in 3QFY2012 (compared to US$9.0 in 3QFY2011 and US$9.1/bbl in 2QFY2012) on account of lower product cracks. Thus, the refining segments EBIT decreased by 30.8% yoy to `1,685cr.
(US $/bbl)
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
RIL GRMs
Singapore GRMs
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
1QFY12
2QFY12
Capacity Utilisation
Petrochemicals: The petrochemicals segments revenue grew by 23.8% yoy to `19,781cr due to higher prices and sales volumes. However, the segments EBIT margin declined by 429bp yoy to 10.9% and EBIT declined by 11.2% yoy to `2,157cr.
3QFY12
(mn tonnes)
(%)
3QFY12
Oil and gas: The oil and gas segments revenue decreased by 32.2% yoy to `2,832cr due to lower production from KG-D6 block; however, this was partially offset by the increase in crude oil realization. Production from KG-D6 stood at 41mmscmd in 3QFY2012 compared to 45mmscmd in 2QFY2012. Consequently, the segments EBIT decreased by 14.0% yoy to `1,294cr during the quarter.
Investment arguments
Ramp-up in KG-D6 could re-rate the stock: RILs upstream segment still has significant upside in store, considering the huge untapped resources. RILs natural gas production stands at 41mmscmd, significantly below its potential of 80mmscmd from KG-D6 due to constraints over reservoir pressure. Nevertheless, we believe RIL can ramp up its production over the medium term with the help of BPs technical expertise. Also, RIL has recently concluded several three-year exploration phases on the prospective eastern coast and is expected to commence with the development phase soon. RIL expects to commence significant E&P activities from CY2014. Foray into newer businesses: RIL has been eyeing inorganic routes for diversifying its asset portfolio by entering into newer ventures, such as retail and telecom, on the back of significant cash pile (`74,539cr as on December 31, 2011) and treasury stocks. Initiatives such as shale gas acquisitions, with in-place reserves of ~12TCF, could prove to be a potential trigger for the stock in the long term.
`/share
290 195 142 45 54 60 35 60 30 15 36 962
(39) 923
Bloomberg consensus
66.4 70.9
Variation (%)
(3.2) (2.7)
64.3 69.0
- Neutral
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Oct-10
Oct-11 Dec-11
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Apr-07
7x
Source: Company, Angel Research
10x
13x
16x
19x
(%)
20 10 0
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
Aug-07
Aug-08
Aug-09
Aug-10
Dec-10
Prem/Disc to Sensex
Source: Company, Angel Research
Aug-11
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Apr-10
Apr-11
Jan-12
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
137,147 151,224 203,740 265,811 316,591 332,554 20.5 10.3 34.7 30.5 19.1 5.0 114,002 127,802 172,846 226,850 280,833 294,807 89,912 105,224 147,065 197,392 244,365 256,524 9,851 2,738 11,501 23,145 15.0 16.9 5,004 18,140 19.1 13.2 1,087 1,223 5.3 18,277 24.8 4,734 23,011 3,488 17.9 19,523 (1.9) 19,521 14,788 22.5 10.8 45.2 45.2 22.5 7,202 3,018 12,358 23,422 1.2 15.5 5,651 17,771 (2.0) 11.8 1,816 1,914 10.7 17,869 (2.2) 17,869 2,919 19.5 14,950 18.4 14,969 14,969 1.2 9.9 45.7 45.7 1.2 7,538 2,791 15,452 30,894 31.9 15.2 10,946 19,948 12.2 9.8 2,060 2,185 7.6 20,074 12.3 8,606 28,680 4,256 17.4 24,424 79.6 24,503 15,897 6.2 7.8 48.6 48.6 6.2 7,032 3,324 19,102 38,961 26.1 14.7 14,121 24,840 24.5 9.3 2,411 2,543 10.2 24,972 24.4 24,972 4,783 23.7 20,189 22.0 20,211 20,211 27.1 7.6 61.8 61.8 27.1 8,705 4,115 23,648 35,758 (8.2) 11.3 11,445 24,313 (2.1) 7.7 2,721 6,037 21.8 27,628 10.6 27,628 6,631 24.0 20,998 34.0 21,032 21,032 3.3 6.6 64.3 64.3 9.0 9,139 4,320 24,824 37,747 5.6 11.4 11,965 25,781 6.0 7.8 2,480 6,339 21.4 29,640 7.3 29,640 7,114 24.0 22,526 41.0 22,567 22,567 7.3 6.8 69.0 69.0 7.3
10
(5,939) (13,501)
(1,938) (22,570)
4,099 (16,215)
20,701 (13,793)
(4,954) (14,907) 24,817 (22,436) 18,268 4,474 22,742 (8,851) 22,742 13,891
14,950 (17,554)
11
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Int. Coverage (EBIT/Int.)
0.4 1.6 16.7 0.4 2.0 9.8 0.3 1.2 9.7 0.2 0.8 10.3 0.0 0.1 8.9 (0.1) (0.3) 10.4 1.3 71 23 29 46 1.1 54 15 52 44 1.1 59 8 57 83 1.1 83 19 89 111 1.3 83 19 89 94 1.3 83 19 89 83 13.9 20.8 20.4 10.0 17.4 14.3 9.4 13.5 14.3 10.6 13.2 13.8 9.6 12.6 12.9 9.7 13.0 12.4 59.6 59.6 71.9 5.5 301 44.6 44.6 69.7 6.4 407 74.9 74.9 99.8 7.0 475 58.9 58.9 115.7 8.5 517 64.3 64.3 108.9 9.0 578 69.0 69.0 115.8 10.0 644 12.9 10.7 2.6 0.7 1.9 11.1 1.7 17.3 11.1 1.9 0.8 1.8 11.4 1.3 10.3 7.7 1.6 0.9 1.4 9.0 1.3 13.1 6.7 1.5 1.1 1.0 6.9 1.1 12.0 7.1 1.3 1.2 0.8 6.7 0.9 11.2 6.7 1.2 1.3 0.7 6.1 0.8 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
RIL No No Yes No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
13