MATH 2030.

03 A
Assignment #6
November 28, 2003
SOLUTIONS
Section 3.3
Exercise 2.
Answers:
The r.v. Y has the range {0, 1, 2, 3} and probability distribution
1
3
P (Y = 0) = P (Y = 3) = , P (Y = 1) = P (Y = 2) = .
8
8
The mean of Y 2
3
3
1
1
E(Y 2 ) = 02 + 12 + 22 + 32 = 3.
8
8
8
8
Also
1
3
3
1
1
E(Y 4 ) = 04 + 14 + 24 + 34 = 16 .
8
8
8
8
2
Hence,
1
1
V ar(Y 2 ) = E[(Y 2 )2 ] [E(Y 2 )]2 = E(Y 4 ) [E(Y 2 )]2 = 16 32 = 7 .
2
2
Exercise 3.
Answers:
= 1, 2 = 2.
(a) E(2X + 3Y ) = 2E(X) + 3E(Y ) = 2 + 3 = 5 = 5.
(b) V ar(2X + 3Y ) = V ar(2X) + V ar(3Y ) = 22 V ar(X) + 32 V ar(Y ) = 4 2 + 9 2 = 26.
(c) E(XY Z) = E(X)E(Y )E(Z) = 13 = 1.
(d) V ar(XY Z) = E[(XY Z)2 ] [E(XY Z)]2 = E(X 2 Y 2 Z 2 ) [E(X)E(Y )E(Z)]2
= E(X 2 )E(Y 2 )E(Z 2 ) [E(X)E(Y )E(Z)]2 = [E(X 2 )]3 [E(X)]6
= {V ar(X) + [E(X)]2 }3 [E(X)]6 = (2 + 12 )3 16 = 27 1 = 26.
Exercise 5.
E(X) = & V ar(X) = 2 = E[(X a)2 ] = 2 + ( a)2 (a = const).
Answer:
V ar(X a) = E[(X a)2 ][E(X a)]2 = E[(X a)2 ][E(X)a]2 = E[(X a)2 ](a)2 .
But V ar(X a) = V ar(X) = 2 .
So, E[(X a)2 ] = 2 + ( a)2 (a = const).
Exercise 17.
Answers:
1
1
Let X a r.v. with probability distrn P (X = 1) = P (X = 0) = , P (X = 1) = .
4
2
Consider the r.v. S = 25
i=1 Xi , where Xi and X are identically distributed and Xi are independent. Then

1
1
1
+ 0 + 1 = 0.25,
4
4
2
1
2
2 1
2 1
E(X ) = (1) + 0 + 12 = 0.75.
4
4
2
3
11
1
2
2
So, V ar(X) = E(X ) [E(X)] = ( )2 = ,
4
4
16

11
and SD(X) =
. Then, E(S) = E(25X) = 25E(X) = 25(0.25) = 6.25.
4

SD(S) = SD(25X) = 25SD(X) = 54 11.

E(X) = (1)

(a) P (S < 0) (

0 0.5
0.5 6.25

) = (
) (1.63) = 1 (1.63) = 0.0516.
5

11
4

0 + 0.5
0 0.5
(b) P (S = 0) (
) (
)

0.5 6.25
0.5 6.25

= ( 5
) (
) (1.39) (1.63) = (1.63) (1.39) = 0.0307.
5
11
11
4
4
(c) P (S > 0) = 1 P (S 0) = 1 P (S < 0) P (S = 0) = 1 0.0516 0.0307 = 0.9177.
Exercise 20.
Answers:
Case 1: Invest $100 000 in one stock.
Case 2: Invest $100 000 in each of 100 stocks.
(a) P (total profit $8 000)
= P (stock earns either S
$200 per $1 000 or $100 per $1 000 of investment)
= P (stock earns $200
stock earns $100)
= P (stock earns $200 ) + P (stock earns $100) = 0.25 + 0.25 = 0.5.
(b) Let S100 be the sum of the profits for the 100 stocks invested in, and X be the variable
representing one of the profits.
1
1
1
1
E(X) = 200 + 100 + 0 + (100)2 = 50,
4
4
4
4
1
2
2 1
2 1
2 1
E(X ) = (200) + (100) + 0 + (100)2 = 15 000.
4
4
4
4
So, V ar(X) = E(X 2 ) [E(X)]2 = 15 000 (50)2 = 12 500.
Therefore, E(S100 ) = E(100X) = 100E(X) = 100 50 = 5 000,
and since investments are independent,
V ar(S100 ) = V ar(100X) = 100V ar(X) = 100 12 500 = 1 250 000.
Using the normal approximation,
P (S 8 000) = 1 P (S < 8 000) 1 (a )
2 950
8 000 0.5(100) 5 000

) = 0.0042.
= (
) 1 (
1 118
1 250 000
Exercise 23.
Answer:
Let the r.v. Xi be the lifetime in weeks of the i-th battery,
2

E(Xi ) = 4, V ar(Xi ) = 1, i = 1, 2, 3, , 27.

Assume S = X1 + X2 + + X27 is approximately normally distributed.
E(S) = E(27Xi ) = 27E(X) = 27 4 = 108,
V ar(S) =p
V ar(27X) =27V ar(X) = 27 1 = 27.
SD(S) = V ar(S) = 27.
So,
P (> 26 replacements in 2-year period) = P (X1 + X2 + + X27 < 2 52)
S 108
104 108
S 108
4

= P (S < 104) = P (
<
) = P(
< )
27
27
27
27
(0.77) = 1 (0.77) = 0.2206.
Section 2.4
Exercise 5.
Answers:
Let X be the number of wins during a year; n = 52(weeks), p = 0.01.
X v Bi(52, 0.01), = np = 52 0.01 = 0.52.
Using Poisson approximation,
k
P (k wins) = P (X = k) = e .
k!
(0.52)0 0.52
For k = 0 : P (X = 0) =
e
= e0.52 0.594521.
0!
(0.52)1 0.52
e
= (0.52)e0.52 0.309151.
For k = 1 : P (X = 1) =
1!
(0.52)2 0.52 (0.52)e0.52
For k = 2 : P (X = 2) =
e
=
0.080379.
2!
2
Exercise 6.
Answers:
(a) Let X be the number of black balls seen in a series of 1000 draws with replacement.
Then X v Bi(1000, 0.002), = np = 1000 0.002 = 2.
By Poisson approximation,
0
1
P (X < 2) = P (X = 0) + P (X = 1) = e + e = e + e = e (1 + )
0!
1!
3
2
= 3e = 2 0.406006.
e
()2 22 2
P (X = 2) =
e = e 0.270671.
2!
2
P (X 3) = 1 P (X < 3) = 1 P (X 2) = 1 [P (X = 2) + P (X < 2)]
= 1 (0.406006 + 0.270671) = 0.23323.
Hence, getting fewer than two black balls is most likely.
(b) (k = 1, 1000) P (both series see kTblack balls)
= P [(1st series sees k black balls) (2nd series sees k black balls)]
= P [(1st series sees k black balls)] P [(2nd series sees k black balls)],
the series are independent.
k
But P (a series sees k black balls) = e , (k = 1, 1000).
k!
3

So, P (both series see k black balls)

2k
k
k k
2 1000
4 1000 4
= 1000
=
(e
)

=
e

e
e
k=0
k=0
k=0
k!
k!
(k!)2
(k!)2
3
4
5
2
2
2
e4 [1 + 22 + 22 + ( )2 + ( )2 + ( )2 ] 0.207.
3!
4!
5!
Exercise 7.
Answers:
We are given n = 25, p = 0.1,
q = 1 p = 0.9
and the r.v. X v Bi(25, 0.1),

= np = 2.5, = npq = 25 0.1 0.9 = 2.25 = 1.5.

(a) Most likely value of X (the mode) m = bnp + pc = b + pc = b2.5 + 0.1c = b2.6c = 2.
2
23
(b) P (S = m) = P (S = 2) = (25
=
2 )(0.1) (0.9)

(25)2
(0.1)2 (0.9)23 0.2659.
2!

(c) By the normal approximation,

2 + 0.5
2 0.5
2.5 2.5
1.5 2.5
P (S = 2) (
) (
) = (
) (
)

1.5
1.5
= (0) (0.67) = (0) [1 (0.67)] = 0.5 1 + 0.7486 = 0.2486.
(d) By Poisson approximation,
(2.5)2 2.5
P (S = 2)
e
0.2565.
2!
(e) n = 2500, p = 0.1, q = 1 p =0.9

= np = 250, = npq = 2500 0.1 0.9 = 225 = 15.

m = bnp + pc = b + pc = b250 + 0.1c = b250.1c = 250.
By the normal approximation,
250 0.5
250 + 0.5
P (S = 250) (
) (
)

250 0.5 250

250 + 0.5 250
= (
) (
)
15
15
0.004
= (0.033) (0.033) = 2(0.033) 1 2(0.2150 +
) = 1.0266 1 = 0.0266.
3
By the Poisson approximation,
(250)250 250
P (S = 250)
e
0.025223.
250!
The latter is not better, since the exact value
(2 500)250
250
P (S = 250) = (2500
(0.9)2250 =
(0.09)250 (0.9)2 000 0.026587.
250 )(0.1)
250!
Note: To calculate P (S = 250), for the r.v. S, with = np = 2500 0.1 = 250 > 10,
and nq = n(1 p) = 2500 0.9 = 2250 > 10 the normal approximation would be better
since the distribution of S follows the normal curve.
(f ) n = 2500, p = 0.001, q = 1 p = 0.999

= np = 2 500 0.001 = 2.5, = npq = 2500 0.001 0.999 = 2.4975 1.58.

m = bnp + pc = b + pc = b2.5 + 0.001c = b2.501c = 2.
By the Poisson approximation,
4

(2.5)2 2.5
P (S = 2)
e
0.2565.
2!
By the normal approximation,
2 + 0.5
2 0.5
P (S = 2) (
) (
)

2 + 0.5 2.5
2 0.5 2.5
= (
) (
) = (0) (0.6329) = 0.5 + (0.633) 1
1.58
1.58
0.0032
0.5 + [0.7357 +
)] 1 = 1.2368 1 = 0.2368.
3
Note: Since np = 2.5 < 10 and n(1 p) = 24975 >> 10, the Poisson approximation
to P (S = 2) should be better.

The end