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Prices
AD (fiscal, monetary Policies, exchange rates, world Demand, investment, sentiment) AS (raw matls, Import price)
Concerns
High inflation on food and fuel that was passing through High asset side prices esp. in real estate Employment growth
Much time wasted in moving to expansionary monetary policy RBI still worried about inflation!!
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
Slow down on IT before its sharp decline? Or is there hidden opportunity to cut wage costs and bounce back? Real estate and construction most badly affected
real estate bubble? 3 times increase in prices overextended developers, but housing loans more or less safe? But a little later as IT people lose jobs? Collapse of commercial real estate as investments fell
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
Inflation continues to be high on primary side; On the mfg side it is very low
Assessment
The Nature of demand
IT/ BPO spending effects (housing cars, other durables) Very large increase in role of traded sector Absolute advantage of the services sector Large role of remittances large labour market flexibility free imports and falling tariffs quell any local monopoly spending effects of gulf remittances
Idle capacity in mfg. Idle capacity in tradables esp. export industries The Real Side
steep decline in share of public investments from 52% to less than 20% (1.2-2% add on) improvements in the public sector large rise in productivity of the corporate /large sector about 4+% in labour/ IT shopfloor TFP rises Some infrastructural gains (ports, airports, telecom, roads in part, village roads, airlines, in part power)
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
Industrial reorganization DUPs have come down tax, rates, delicensing governance improvements
The issue of large capital inflows and making the task of monetary policy difficult
itself the result of monetary targeting autonomy on M actually weak without imposing large variations in credit H = DC+ NFA
Can supply side inflation be fought with a demand side pull back?
If elasticity for demand for money >1 then ?
Concerns
Macroeconomic
Capital outflows, fickle capital inflows, Outward FDI and the selloffs
Infrastructural policies
energy policies (under investment possibilities) power sector blues continue and deepen inputs to agriculture especially power and water are major PPP frameworks not ready in many sectors Regulatory framework contributes to risk
The constraint of land acquisition The agricultural constraint Widening income gaps despite faster growth of poors incomes in many parts
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
The mill stone of Planning Commissions Centrally Sponsored Schemes Interregional disparities Public failure in crucial areas of human development and well being: municipal infrastructure, public health, education, drinking water The constraint of urban areas
sky rocketing real estate prices
Ex hibit: Grow th Ra te s Achie ve d by the India n Econom y ove r the Ye a rs (1990-91 Consta nt Price s) 0.15 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.1 Exp % Per A nnum 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0
19 51 19 57 19 60 19 54 19 63 19 69 19 72 19 66 19 81 19 84 19 87 19 78 19 90 19 75 19 93 19 96 19 99 20 02 20 05 20 08
Gross domestic produc ts by expenditure or demand (at constant 1990-91 Prices) Private final consumption expenditure Government final consumption expenditure Gross capital formation Agriculture & allied
0.25
0.15
0.05
-0.05
-0.15 2000
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
YrQ
h
0.38 IIP (All) IIP (Mfg) 0.28 IIP (Capital) IIP (Consumer) 0.18
0.08
-0.02
Inflation in WPI (w/w), and Role of Primary Artcls and Fuels etc. (% p.a)
0.16 All Comm. Prim.+Fuel etc
0.12
0.08
0.04
Inflation in WPI (w/w), and Role of Primary Artcls and Fuels etc. (% p.a)
0.16 All Comm. Prim.+Fuel etc
0.12
0.08
0.04
2012
0.35
0.25
0.15
0.05
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
Yw
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
OBSERVED Fitted
2002
2006
2010
Regression InflMfg on InflPrimary and InflFuel Coeff. St.Cff. t Sign. Constant InflFuel(-1) InflPrimary(-1) InflFuel(-7) InflFuel(-11) InflPrimary(-11) R-adj Sq No of Observations F-Ratio
(c) S. Morris, IIMA
The LM side
Foreign Investments
0.9
0.6
0.3
0.31
0.26
0.21
0.16
2010
1985 Year
1995
2005
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Year
Today