Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
NHM 7
K08404A
1. Nguyn Tun Anh
K084040475
K084040476
K084040480
K084040496
K084040507
6. Trn Khnh
K084040519
K084040564
8. Ng Trn Anh Th
K084040574
MC LC
CHNG 1: C S L LUN ................................................................................................... 3
1.1.
1.2.
1.3.
1.4.
2.1.
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.
Chng 1
C S L LUN
1.1.
1.1.1.
c im BoP
cu ngoi t (-)
Nhp khu vn
Xut khu vn
Gim d tr ngoi hi
Tng d tr ngoi hi
1.1.3.
ngha BoP
1.2.
Settlements Balance)
Cc giao dch ca nn kinh t l rt phong ph v a dng, nn OB li c chia thnh
hai cn cn b phn chnh l Ti khon vng lai (CA) v Ti khon vn (K).
Do trong thc t c rt nhiu vn phc tp v cng tc thng k trong qu trnh thu
thp s liu v lp BoP, nn thng pht sinh nhng nhm ln v sai st. Nn theo nguyn
tc bt ton kp, BoP cn bng ngi ta phi b sung mt hng mc l Nhm ln v sai
st OM.
OB = CA + K + OM
Tng hp ti khon vn v nhm ln sai st so snh vi gi tr ca ti khon vng lai
s ch ra kt qu trong cn cn thanh ton chnh thc. Kt qu ny nu mang du (-) quc
gia n nc ngoi v phi chuyn nhng d tr tr n. Nu kt qu c mang du (+)
Ti khon vng lai th hin cc dng chy ca hng ha, dch v, thu nhp chnh v
ph (chuyn giao vng lai) gia ngi c tr v ngi khng c tr.
Ti khon vng lai = Cn cn hu hnh (visible) + Cn cn v hnh (invisible)
CA = Visible (TB) + Invisible (SE + IC + Tr)
Cn cn thng mi (TB): c n c gi l cn cn hu hnh (visible) v n phn nh
chnh lch gia cc khon thu t ut khu v cc khon chi cho nhp khu hng ha,
m cc hng ha ny li c th quan st c bng mt thng khi di chuyn qua bin
gii.
Cn cn dch v (SE): bao gm cc khon thu, chi t cc hot ng dch v vn ti,
du lch, bo him, bu chnh, vi n thng, hng khng, ngn hng, thng tin, y dng
v t cc hot ng dch v khc gia ngi c tr v ngi khng c tr.
-
hu nhp ca ngi ao ng: l cc khon tin lng, tin thng v cc khon thu
nhp khc bng tin, hin vt do ngi khng c tr tr cho ngi c tr v ngc
li.
Chuyn giao vng lai mt chiu (Tr): bao gm cc khon vin tr khng hon li,
qu tng, qu biu v cc khon chuyn giao khc bng tin, hin vt cho mc ch
tiu dng do ngi khng c tr chuyn cho ngi c tr v ngc li. Cc khon
chuyn giao vng lai mt chiu phn nh s phn phi li thu nhp gia ngi c tr
vi ngi khng c tr. Nhn t chnh nh hng ln chuyn giao mt chiu l lng
tt, tnh cm v mi quan h gia ngi c tr v khng c tr.
1.2.1.2.
Ti khon vn (K)
Chuyn giao vn mt chiu (KTr): bao gm cc khon vin tr khng hon li cho
mc ch u t, vin tr pht trin c s h tng, cc khon n c a.
10
11
OB = - OFB
CA + K + OM = - OFB
OM = - (CA + K +OFB)
thc.
Khong trng trong c cu thanh ton xut hin khi s chuyn dch trong ti khon
vn di cc hnh thc cng vi nhm ln v sai st, khng trng vi cn cn ti khon
v ng lai. Vai tr iu phi ca NHTW v chnh ph xut hin khi n thc hin vic chuyn
nhng d tr b vo khong trng.
Cn cn b p chnh thc bao gm cc hng mc:
-
Mt thc t rng, khi d tr ngoi hi tng th ghi n (-) v gim th ghi c (+), do
nhm ln thng xy ra y. iu ny c gii thch nh sau: Chng ta hnh dung, quc
gia Vit Nam c chia thnh 2 b phn gm: NHTW v phn cn li khng bao gm
NHTW (gi l nn kinh t - NKT).
Tiu ch phn thnh NHTW v NKT l NHTW c chc nng can thip ln cung
cu ngoi t trn th trng ngoi hi, cn NKT khng c chc nng can thip.
12
1.3.
13
Cn cn thng mi
TB = (X M) = - (SE + IC + Tr + KL + KS + R)
14
Kh nng 1:
KL< 0 v KS> 0
KL = - KS
15
KL> 0 v KS< 0
Kh nng 1:
R> 0 v KS< 0
KS = - R
R< 0 v KS> 0
y l trng thi khi vn ngn hn chy vo lm tng d tr ngoi hi quc gia. Trong
thc t, tnh hung ny c th xy ra, khi NHTW tng mc li sut ca ni t ngn nga
cc lung vn ngn hn chy ra v thu ht thm cc lung vn ngn hn chy vo nhm bo
v cho t gi khng tip tc tng na (tc ngn khng cho ni t tip tc gim gi).
1.3.3.
Cn cn c bn
BB = (CA + KL) = - (KS + R)
Khi CA < 0, nhng nu (CA + KL) > 0, th quc gia khng h chu ri ro thanh khon.
Chnh v vy, nhiu nh kinh t cho rng, cn cn c bn phn nh tng qut hn v trng
thi n nc ngoi ca mt quc gia so vi Ti khon vng lai. iu ny xy ra l v, vn
16
a) Trong di hn:
17
3. Nu CA > 0
1.3.4.
Cn cn tng th
18
19
20
Yu t nh hng BoP
1.4.1.
Lm pht
Nu mc thu nhp ca mt quc gia (thu nhp quc dn) tng theo mt t l cao
hn t l tng ca quc gia khc, ti khon vng lai ca quc gia s gim nu cc yu
t khc bng nhau. Do mc thu nhp thc t ( iu chnh do lm pht) tng, mc tiu
th hng ha c ng tng. Mt t l gia tng trong tiu th hu nh s phn nh mt mc
cu gia tng i vi hng ha nc ngoi.
1.4.1.3.
T gi hi oi
21
Cn cn ti khon ti chnh
1.4.2.1.
Cc loi thu
22
b coi l
DNTNN v b cc hn ch:
1b
Th tc ng k u t phc tp.
1c
23
ngoi
1.4.2.3.
Li sut
24
K vng bin ng t gi
25
Chng 2
PHN TCH THC TIN
Bin ng thc t ca cn cn thanh ton Vit Nam
trong giai on 2006-2010
2.1. Bin ng trn Ti khon vng lai
Hnh 2.1: Bin ng Cn cn vng ai giai on 2006-2007
Current Balance
10000.00000
5000.00000
0.00000
(560.00) (164.00)
2005
(5000.00000)
2006
Trade Bablance
2007
2008
(7092.00)
(10000.00000)
2009
2010
(4253.00)
(6020.00)
(10787.00)
(15000.00000)
Giai on 2006-2007:
Trong nm 2006, thm ht cn cn mu dch ca nc ta c u hng tng ln. Trong
nm 2006, ln u tin kim ngch xut khu ca Vit Nam t gn 40 t USD. Tuy nhin
ng thi, c ng trong giai on ny, mt s ro cn mu dch c d b, nh vic Vit
Nam thc thi gim thu trong khi Mu dch t do ASEAN (AFTA) nhm lm bc m
chun b cho Vit Nam gia nhp WTO, v vy, kim ngch nhp khu ca chng ta c ng c s
26
Trade Balance
60000.00
40000.00
39826.00
48561.00
Merchandise exports,
fob
20000.00
0.00
(20000.00)
2005
2006
Trade Balance
(40000.00)
(60000.00)
Merchandise imports,
fob
(42602.00)
(58921.00)
(80000.00)
27
Vit Nam ri vo giai on gim pht. Cc doanh nghip phi chp nhn thua l bn
CPI 2008
6.00%
4.93%
5.00%
3.90%
4.00%
3.00%
2.20%
3.00%
2.10%
2.00% 1.20%
1.10%
1.60%
0.20%
-0.20%
-0.80%-0.70%
1.00%
0.00%
-1.00%
Mc tng CPI
10
11
12
-2.00%
C xut khu v nhp khu trong nm nay u tng, song mc tng nhanh hn ca
nhp khu lm cn cn thng mi thm ht 12,8 t USD, tng so vi nm 2007 l 23,8%.
Xut khu nm 2008 t 62,6 t USD, so vi nm 2007 tng 29,09%. t c kt qu ny
l nh s tng ln c hai khu vc kinh t trong nc (28,1t USD) v khu vc c vn u
t nc ngoi (34,5 t USD). Trong nm 2008 ny, kim ngch xut nhp khu ca tt c cc
mt hng u tng so vi nm 2007, ch yu l do s tng gi ca th trng th gii.
28
0.6
7.2
14.7
37.0
39.8
Hng thy sn
29
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4.8
5.5
7.2
6.84
USD)
Kiuhi
15.00
10.00
8.40
8.40
8.80
13.34
10.37
10.15
5.00
7.80
3.00
7.80
3.00
8.19
3.06
3.68
2005
2006
2007
2008
11.50
11.14
2.85
3.00
2009
2010
Saving
6 months
12 months
0.00
Giai on 2008-2009:
Nm 2009 l nm cho thy nh hng r rt ca cuc khng hong cui nm 2008,
lan rng v nh hng n Vit Nam.
Bin ng ng k nht ng gp ch yu l Cn cn thng mi: Thm ht cn cn
thng mi, vn ang trn tng rt cao t trc , t mc 12,78 t USD nm 2008
gim ung c n -8,3 t USD trong nm 2009. Nguyn nhn chnh l do nh hng cu
khng hong kinh t ton cu khi m lc cu ca th gii v c trong nc suy gim.
30
20000.00000
Merchandise exports, fob
0.00000
(20000.00000)
(40000.00000)
(60000.00000)
(80000.00000)
(100000.00000)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(34886.00000)
(42602.00000)
(58921.00000)
(65402.00000)
(75467.00000) (79289.00000)
Ngun s iu: ADB
Xut khu Vit Nam nm 2009, trong chim t trng ch yu l nng lm sn, th
cng m ngh v cng nghip nh, gim 8,91%. Suy thoi kinh t ton cu lm gim sc
cu, gi c hng ha trn th trng th gii gim st trm trng, gy sc p ln ut khu.
Bn cnh , hng ha ut khu ca Vit Nam ch yu l nhng mt hng nguyn liu cng
nghip th, sn phm th cng nghip hoc thc phm ch bin v tp trung mt s th
trng truyn thng nh M, Chu u, Nht Bn
31
nm trc, trong khi kim nhp khu tng 21.23%, thm ht trn cn cn thng mi gim
khong hn 1.200 t USD so vi nm 2009. y l mt con s tch cc i vi nn kinh t.
Bn cnh , t gi tng (tc VND gim gi so vi USD) c ng l mt trong nhng
nguyn nhn thc y xut khu tng v gim nhp khu. theo s liu thng k t ngn hng
pht trin chu (ADB), trong nm 2010, t gi trung bnh tng 9.12% so vi nm trc.
Tuy nhin cn lu rng ch s t gi thc hiu dng (Real Effective E change Rate) nm
2010 ch t 117.4 ( nm 2000 l nm gc khi tnh ton) ch tng 1% so vi nm trc ( s
liu t World Bank). iu ny ni ln sc cnh tranh ca hng ho xut khu ca Vit Nam
nh tc ng ca ph gi ng tin thp hn rt nhiu so vi mc thay i ca t gi danh
ngha. Ni cch khc tc ng xu t tng t gi nh nh hng n lm pht mnh m hn
hiu ng tch cc h tr cho cn cn thng mi.
T l thm ht cn cn thng mi ( Trade Balance/ Exports) gim dn qua cc nm
cho thy khong cch gia xut khu v nhp khu c rt ngn. Tuy nhin, cn cn thng
32
0.7081
0.4818
0.6263
0.4854
0.4738
0.4000
0.2000
0.0000
-0.2000
2005
-7.52%
-0.4000
2006
-6.97%
2007
2008
-21.33%
-20.39%
2009
-14.55%
2010
-9.83%
33
Capital Account
4000.00
3087.00
3088.00
3000.00
Direct investment
Porfolio investment
2000.00
Other short-term
capital
1000.00
Other long-term
capital
0.00
2005
(1000.00)
(2000.00)
2006
Ngun: ADB
34
Capital Account
17730.00
20000.00
15000.00
Porfolio investment
10000.00
5000.00
Direct investment
Other short-term
capital
3088.00
Other long-term
capital
0.00
2006
2007
(5000.00)
Nguyn nhn chnh c th nhc n y chnh l do Vit Nam khuyn khch mnh
m u t nc ngoi nm trong chin lc pht trin ca mnh, v Chnh ph cam kt s
tip tc ci thin mi trng u t v kinh doanh. Sau khi gia nhp WTO, cc nh u t
bt u c nim tin hn vo th trng Vit Nam, vi s n nh v chnh tr v nhiu iu
kin thun li v t nhin v lao ng. C th em y l nm ngun vn vo Vit Nam
t nht trong 10 nm tr li y. Nh vy, ngun d tr ngoi hi ca nc ta c ng tng ng
k trong nm nay.
Tuy nhin, vic thng d ln ti khon vn c ng l tim tng mt s ri ro nht
nh, c bit l ri ro v t gi m chng ti s i su hn phn Bin ng d tr ngoi
hi v T gi
Giai on 2007-2008:
Li sut cao trong nm ny nh trn c ng tc ng n u t trc tip nc ngoi
r ng tng ln 42,4% so vi nm 2007.
35
20000.00
12342.00
15000.00
10000.00
5000.00
Direct investment
6755.00
3087.00
5629.00
3088.00
Porfolio investment
Other short-term capital
Other long-term capital
0.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
(5000.00)
2010
Capital account
(10000.00)
1%
1%
CN ch bin
11%
45%
Kinh doanh
ti sn v dch v t vn
CN khai thc m
37%
Theo hnh,ta c th thy c vai tr quan trng ca cng nghip ch bin,v kinh
doanh trong ngun vn FDI.
Ngc vi FDI, FII bst gim trmtrng 109,3% t 6243 tUSD xung -578 tUSD.
Nhng bin ng nydo chu nh hng ca tnh hnh lm pht nu trn, v di n bin phc
tp cal i sut trongnm.
Chi tit li sut nm 2008, nhng bin ng tri chiu. Cuc chy ua tng l i sut
trong 6 thng u, v cuc chy ua gim li sut trong 6 thng cui nm. Chnh sch iu
chnh li sut kh phc tp vi 3 ln tng v 5 ln gim li sut c bn, v 5 ln thay i tl
d tr bt buc.
36
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
8.00%
9.50%
13.00%13.00%13.00%13.00%
12.00%
7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 7.50% 11.00%
10.00%
6.00%
7.50%
10.00%
4.00%
LSTCK
LSTCV
LSCB
2.00%
0.00%
1
10
11
12
Ngun: SBV
37
of 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Investing 36
37
43
40
38
38
36
36
34
29
29
28
GDP
Saving
38
Singapore
3%
23%
3%
Hn Quc
4%
H Lan
7%
13%
Nht Bn
Hoa K
10%
12%
12%
i Loan
39
1,200.001,200.001,200.00
1,127.041,134.72
1,100.00
1200
1,043.16
1,020.00
996.59
949.38
945.67
943 924.27
890.2 928.65 900 934.23
870
1000 858.69
850
850
850
825
768
800
600
GOLD
STEEL
400
200
0
1
10
11
12
40
25000.00000
20000.00000
15000.00000
Total Reserves
10000.00000
Foreign Exchange
5000.00000
0.00000
Total Reserves
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9216.466 13591.01 23747.74 24175.96 16803.15 15038.15
Ngun: ADB
Chng ta nhn thy trong nm 2007, d d tr ngoi hi tng mnh nhng t gi bin
ng khng nhiu. Nguyn nhn l i ph vi dng ngoi t ln chy vo trong nc t
cn cn vn, Ngn hng Nh nc phi y mt lng tin ln vo nn kinh t nhm gi
n nh t gi, h tr cho hot ng xut khu v trnh p lc ln cn cn mu dch. Mt hu
41
2007
33.59%
46.12%
Lm pht (**)
6.6%
12.6%
10.00%
8.00%
4.68%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.72%
0.85%
0.69%
2005
2006
2007
1.22%
0.00%
2008
2009
2010
42
ung ti mc bo ng, iu ny dn n
nguy c Ngn hng trung ng khng kh nng iu chnh t gi khi cn, n cha nhiu
ri ro cho nn kinh t.
Ta quan st c ch s ny gim dn t nm 2007 n nay, nm 2010 ch cn 2.28,
thp hn nhiu so vi mc khuyn co an ton ca IMF khong t 3 n 4 ln. Thc trng
ny dn n phi c gng y mnh xut khu trong nm 2011 nhm thu ngoi t, gim thm
ht cn cn v ng lai ng thi n nh li kinh t v m nhm thu ht u t nc ngoi c ng
nh khi thng ngun ngoi t tch tr trong dn chng.
43
Chng 3
KT LUN
Kinh t Vit Nam duy tr c s n nh v tng trng cao trong giai on 20022007, tuy nhin, k t nm 2008, nn kinh t bc vo giai on kh khn theo u hng
chung kinh t th gii v v vy, cn cn thanh ton ca Vit Nam c ng chu nhiu nh
hng.
44
45
Thc hin
Hong Anh
Hong Anh
Thy Hng
Yu t nh hng BoP
Ph lc tham kho
Tng hp
2006 2007
Minh Trn
C s thc tin
2007 2008
Thanh Hoa
(tm s liu v
2008 2009
Anh Th
phn tch
2009 2010
Tun Anh
Tng hp
C s l lun
2006 2010)
46