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Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions
Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions
Maintenance Decisions
Andrew K S Jardine
CBM Laboratory
Department of Mechanical & Industrial Engineering
University of Toronto
Canada
jardine@mie.utoronto.ca
August 2006
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Excellence in Physical Asset Management
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 2
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Asset Management
We want
Fact–based arguments
(data driven decisions)
not
Intuition–based pronouncements
(strength of personalities, # of mechanics’ complaints)
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 3
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
RCM Methodology Logic
SELECT
EQUIPMENT
Condition-Based
Maintenance YES
Is a repair technically and economically feasible
to restore the performance of the item, and will
this reduce the risk of FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Maintenance YES
Is it technically and economically feasible to
replace the item, and will this reduce the risk of
FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Discard YES
Default Actions
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 4
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Back to Basics
“Once the equipment enters service a whole
new set of information will come to light, and from
this point on the maintenance program will evolve
on the basis of data from actual operating
experience. This process will continue throughout
the service life of the equipment, so that at every
stage maintenance decisions are based, not on an
estimate of what reliability is likely to be, but on
the specific reliability characteristics that can be
determined at the time.”
F.S. Nowlan and H. Heap
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 5
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
RCM Methodology Logic
SELECT
EQUIPMENT
Condition-Based
Maintenance YES
Is a repair technically and economically feasible
to restore the performance of the item, and will
this reduce the risk of FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Maintenance YES
Is it technically and economically feasible to
replace the item, and will this reduce the risk of
FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Discard YES
Default Actions
www.ipamc.org
Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 6
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Toronto Transit
Commission:
“At the TTC, I Subway
have been able system
to analyze several
components (which we were overhauling periodically) to justify if
it is worthwhile doing the overhaul. It was possible to use
Weibull analysis since when these components failed, they
failed due to a dominant failure mode, and the defective
component was replaced with a new one or one that is just like
new. I found that most times the hazard rates obtained were
decreasing. This I later found was due to poor quality
components and questionable maintenance practices. Overhaul
on these components has been suspended and we are only
changing them on failure. Quality issues are also being
addressed.”
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 7
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Using MTBF to Determine Maintenance Interval Frequency is Wrong
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 10
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Maintenance Excellence
Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 11
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Dear Professor Jardine,
Î We are one of the largest marine cargo handling firms in the U.S. We have
approx 2400 pieces of rolling stock, mostly powered lift equipment
(stationary cranes, mobile cranes, side & top handlers, forklifts, etc). We
have no corporate strategy on equipment repair/replacement, lease vs. buy,
economic service life, etc. These decisions are based often on strength of
personalities and # of mechanics complaints, not objective analysis. I'm
looking to change that.
Î On the plus side, we do have a CMMS (Maximo) and 4 years of "pretty
good" equipment information and cost history. So we have some data to
analyze.
Î I'll be back in my office Sept 18-19, perhaps we could connect then. I'm on
U.S. west coast time (based in Los Angeles). Look forward to learning
more.
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 12
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Î The outcome of the previous message was that the company was
visited for one day.
Î In the morning a procedure to establish the economic life of their
mobile equipment was discussed.
Î In the afternoon the IT person joined the discussion, and discussed
how to access their company data base.
Î The data from the data base was then inputted into a standard
economic life model to establish the economic life for a sample asset -
it was a Hustler truck - costing about USD 60,000 new.
Î Company present policy was to replace their Hustlers at about 18
years of age.
Î The economic life established by using the economic life model was
about 10 years. Cost saving per year was USD 3340.
Î There were 449 similar vehicles in their fleet.
Î Therefore total annual saving was estimated at:
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 14
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
RCM Methodology Logic
SELECT
EQUIPMENT
Condition-Based
Maintenance YES
Is a repair technically and economically feasible
to restore the performance of the item, and will
this reduce the risk of FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Maintenance YES
Is it technically and economically feasible to
replace the item, and will this reduce the risk of
FAILURE ?
Time-Based
Discard YES
Default Actions
www.ipamc.org
Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 15
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
100%
Detectable Potential
deterioration failure
Y:
Measurable
O R
property
HE
e T
Th
Functional
failure
Time
PF Gap
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 16
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Y:
L IT
R EA
h e
T
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 17
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Classical Approach: Warning
• Simple to
Limits
understand
• Limitations: Alarm > 300ppm
Age
Hazard Plot
Hazard PHM
Age
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 19
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
OPTIMAL POLICY - OPTIMAL HAZARD LEVEL
Hazard Plot Ignore
Hazard
Hazard
Optimal
Hazard level
Age
Cost Plot Replace at
failure only
Cost/unit time
minimal cost
Hazard
Optimal hazard www.ipamc.org
Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 20
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
EXAKT Optimal Decision –
A New “Control Chart”
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 21
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Campbell Soup Company:
Executive Summary
ÎAnalysis of Shear Pump
Bearings Vibration Data
Î3 measurements significant
ÎSavings obtained = 35 %
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 22
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Had we replaced at 175 days…..!!!
Failed at WorkingAge = 182 days
Inspection at
Working Age = 175 days
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 23
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Maintenance Optimization
Optimizing Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Decisions
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 24
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
Optimal Contracting-out Decision
Optimal
level of Total cost/unit time
maintenance
resource
Fixed cost/unit time
Cost
Internal
processing
cost/unit time
Alternative service
deliverer’s
processing
Cost/unit time
not
Intuition–based pronouncements
(strength of personalities, # of mechanics’ complaints)
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 26
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
We have
9Tools to deliver
9Fact – based arguments
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 27
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”
A Suggestion
Let us develop our evidence based maintenance
tool box.
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Andrew Jardine, CBM Lab 29
“Making Evidence-Based Maintenance Decisions”