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I. INTRODUCTION
ITH the more and more installation of supervisor Mininghdt
wdevices in power systems, it is possible to directly
observe and measure the operation states of power Fig. 1 Mining flow of transient stability
systems. In order to take full advantage of the information The data mining model for power system transient
measured by these devices to predict the transient stability stability is composed of data collection, forming data
of power systems, much research has been done by means market and mining engine. The proposed model was test
of the artificial intelligence technique['-31. However, it is on a 10-generator power system, and the results
difficult to use this sort of method directly. The reason is demonstrated the validity.
as follows, The description of data collection and data market is
0 finite sample and different data format given in section 11 Following that, the data mining
A power system is a very complex system of multi- engine will be presented. Result of both data mining
dimension and nonlinearity. The simulative and model and the neural network will also be compared.
observational system data are obtained by finite sampling,
which come from many kmds of online supervision of the 11. DATAPREPARATION FOR MINING ENGINE
power system, such as SCADA and EMS. In this instance, At the beginning of the data accumulation, only
the traditional neural network approaches will suffer from limited observational fault data are available. So this
the difficulty of generalization, and the resulted models paper simulates the actual measurement data at first. With
often overfit the data. the increase of actual measurement data, we can combine
0 Inadequate result information them together and put through increment study. The data
We want to acquire not merely the degree of the sets come from many data sources, like EMS, SCADA
transient stability but also valid, novel and useful and other data sources, which are stored in many different
understandable patterns in the simulative and formats. All of these data sources are practically
observational system data. independent to each other. For the sake of depositing,
In order to solve the problems mentioned above, this exploring and searching the history data conveniently, this
paper proposes a data mining model for power system paper establishes the data market of the transient stability
transient stability prediction. It can take full advantages of prediction. The data market is a repository of information
the increasingly complete database in the power collected from multiple sources by extracting, cleaning,
companies and fulfill the demand of transient stability transforming and loading correlative data for power
prediction in power market, shown in Figure 1. system transient stability.
Figure 2 depicts the multidimensional data model,
Xu Tao is with thc Departmcnt of Elcctric Powcr Engineering, North which exists in the form of a star schema, of power
China Electric Power University, Bcijing 102206 China (e-mail: system transient information. This model is organized
xutao@ncepubj.edu.cn).
Wang Peng is with the Department of Electric Power Engineering, around a central theme which is the mark of system
North China Electric Power University, Bcijing 102206 China (e-mail: transient stability degree. This theme is represented by a
wangpcng@ncepubj.edu.cn).
0-7803-8237-4/04/$17.0002004IEEE
389
2004 IEEE Intemational Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004) April 2004 Hong Kong
fact table. The fact table contains the facts name as well as A. Selection of input and output variables
keys to each of the related seven dimension tables. The For SVM-based transient stability prediction, the task
dimension tables consist of operation mode dimension, can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem. In order
fault place dimension, fault reason dimension, fault to enhance the prediction accuracy and avoid the
clearing time dimension, fault beginning time dimension, “dimension disaster”, we should use representative steady
fault mode dimension and control measure dimension. state and dynamic state variables as input variables of
SVM model. According to many references [la3] and
simulation result, this paper uses the following variable as
the inputloutput variables.
0 Input variables x, shown in Table 1,
stability of the SVM model. The steps of the procedure &fix) = s i g n ( ~ y ; a ; K ( x , x ; ) + b ) (2)
are as follows. i=l
.
where p t points { xi,vi}(i= 1,. .,pt) are the given training
data set S’ that comes from data set S. The RBF kernel
390
2004 IEEE International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT2004) April 2004 Hong Kong
i=l
cP'
;=I
cPI
a i a j y j y , K ( x j x j ) - ai
i=l
different faults at random place with the fault cleared at
0.1s and varied the load levels of the system in the range
s.t ai 2 0 i = 1,2;..,pt (3) 0.7- 1.3p.u. (relative to the nominal operating point). In
each load level, we varied the output power of the
-&xiyi =0 generators. By means of the time domain simulation, we
i=l
Solving Equation (3) can determine the Lagrange create 2000 samples. Then this paper entered all of the
samples into the data market of transient stability. Using
multiplier ai. If we put the data point x, into the equation the on-line analytical processing tools, we can master a lot
(2), we can obtain the stability degree of the power system of primary information of power system transient stability
conveniently according to the corresponding J(x)- i E and draw some reports. 1400 samples are selected as the
{ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4). The SVM-based prediction model is training samples at random, and the other 600 samples are
founded on the structural risk minimization principle that used for testing.
equips the model with a greater ability to generalize. Figure 5 is the query result of maximal swing angle
distribution with regard to the given data set. According
Iv. IMPROVING THE MODLE STABILITY to the data distribution, we can master lots of primary
In order to enhance the prediction accuracy and information. Because of paper limiting, the other complex
stability, this paper applies the bagging algorithm to searches are not introduced.
reconstruct the prediction model of transient stability. In Percentage
bagging, we take full advantage of the given training data 30
set and SVM algorithm to construct several sub models
20
instead of each function J(x), i E { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4}, via a
bootstrap method. All the sub models can be assembled 10
into the final prediction model.
Input: training set S', train algorithm D , training times T n
For i=l to 4 150.05999756 220.74000549 291.42001
i 185.40000153 256.08000946
Forj=l to T AngleMax50
rPercentaqe 1
j=l
1
Output: Prediction function I%&, i E { 1, 2, 3, 4)
I I I I I
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1
I
8 I I I l l 1 1 1 1 1 1
39 1
2004 E E E International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation, Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRF'T2004) April 2004 Hong K o n g
VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
Method Accuracy rate of Accuracy rate of testing
training samples (YO) samples (%) Xu Tao was born in China, in 1976. He
This paper 99.2% 98.3% graduate from ShanDong University of
BPN 93.2% 89.7% Technology in 1998, and received his master
GR" 99.6% 95.5% degree from North China Electric University in
2000. He is now working for his Ph.D. degree in
North China Electric Power University in
Beijing. His interests are in the area of power
system analysis, data mining application etc.
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