Flood Risk Assessment

Standard tools for DM and CCA

Hitoshi BABA Ph.D. Environment and Resource Engineering Senior Advisor p p g y Japan International Cooperation Agency

Standard Tools for Disaster Management and Climate Change Adaptation d Cli Ch Ad i Need to be capable for monitoring and analyzing Increasing Risk of Water Disasters Weakening Public Resilience against Disasters k i bli ili i i Current Capacity of Disaster Management Strategy of adapting DM to Changing Environment

2004
China India Philippine

2005
Pakistan China USA (Hurricane Katrina)

2006
Philippine China Ethiopia Indonesia East Africa (Drought)

2007
India China UK Bangladesh (cyclone Sidr) Indonesia

2008
Myanmar (cyclone Nargis)

Australia (drought)

2009
Pakistan Taipei, Taiwan Philippine Ulaanbaatar, Ulaanbaatar Mongolia

2010
Latin America Brazil

Colombia

Fuente:ElHeraldo Fuente: El Heraldo

2011
East Africa (Drought)

USA (Flood, Drought, Tornado)

Global trend of Flood and Drought

Number of natural disasters registered in EMDAT, 1970 2009,

http://www.emdat.be/database htt // d t b /d t b

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive , g
Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

Standard for .. Flood risk assessment in Jakarta

Inundation SimulationinCiliwungandWestFloodway

WBC

K.Cideng

PluitPumpStation

Standard for .. Flood risk assessment in the Philippines

Standard for .. Flood risk assessment in Thailand

Standard for .. Flood risk Assessment in the Philippines considering Climate Change Adaptation

Standard for .. Earthquake risk assessment in Metro Manila

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive , g
Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning

Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats etc. observation stats, etc

To tackle against increasing Flood Risks,

Need risk assessment, using appropriate Flood Models , g pp p IFAS (Integrated Flood Analysis System)

Flood Forecasting System Using Global Satellite Rainfall

1. Utilization of satellite-based rainfall as an input data z f f p 2. Implementation of Distributed run-off analysis engines 3. Function of creating run-off model 4. Visualization of flood modeling/forecasting results 5. Free distribution 5 Developed by ICHARM (International Center for Water Hazard and Risk Management under the Auspices of UNESCO) A concise flood-runoff analysis system for developing countries ICHARM conducts training seminars for users to utilize IFAS

Factors affecting to the increasing risk

of water disasters, including flood and drought , g g
Changing climate pattern
Precipitation Sea level 1980 Urbanization 28.8%Jakarta 2008 50.8% Future Prospect 75.8%

Changing watershed condition

Forest and vegetation cover Urbanization

Changing vulnerability of people

Moving population livelihood

Damage potential and DM Strategy

Damage Potential analysis
Intensity and frequency Public Resilience against Disasters Damage assumption Needs of emergency response Needs of recovery and reconstruction

Disaster Management Strategy

Risk identification, assessment
Monitoring, forecasting, hazard and risk mapping, information systems, individual and societal surveys

Risk reduction
Land use and spatial planning, river basin management, legislation and regulation, building codes, disaster information, public awareness and education, resettlement Integrated flood control, preventive measures, structural improvement, control measures improvement infrastructure reinforcement,

Financial protection
Insurance, reinsurance, disaster funds

Emergency preparedness and response

Early warning, emergency and contingency recovery, response, training

Post disaster recovery and reconstruction

Need DRR to sustainable development

Number of people reported killed and total amount of reported i damages b all natural di l disasters, 1970 2009 economic d by ll 1970-2009

http://www.emdat.be/database http://www emdat be/database

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive , g
Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning

Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats etc. observation stats, etc

Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places

Flood and Inundation analysis, Affecting factors, etc.

The Disaster Management Cycle

Mitigation

Disaster occurrence & Defense

DMC
Prevention Emergency Response, y Recovery

Rehabilitation, Reconstruction

Japans disaster management relevant national laws surrounding Disaster Management Cycle g g y
Meteorological Service Law Volcanic Disaster Prevention Law River Law Sabo Law Sediment Disaster Law Urban Flood Law U b Fl d L Urban Planning Law Sewerage Law Building Codes Coast Law Forest L F t Law Forest Conservation Law Tonankai-Nankai Earthquake Law Mega Scale Earthquake Law Nuclear Incident Law Oil Incident Law c Flood Defense Law Law for Disaster Management People Protection Law Disaster Rescue Law Law of Self Defense F D f Force

Mitigation

Disaster occurrence & Defense

DMC
Prevention Emergency Response, y Recovery

Fire Fighting Law Fire Fighting Organization Law

Rehabilitation, Reconstruction
Special Law for Severe Damage Infrastructure Rehabilitation Law

Victims Rehabilitation Support Law Disaster Condolence Fund Law

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive , g
Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning

Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats etc. observation stats, etc

Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places

Flood and Inundation analysis, Damage and Impact assessment, etc.

Capacity Evaluation, for improving DRR strategically

Legal and institutional fundamentals, communications, etc.

Climate Change Adaptation in Water Sector

Handbook on Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

A Resilient approach that Integrates Water Management and Community Development l
June 2011, JICA Global Environment Department

CC adaptive Flood Management

Record of hydro-metrological data Flood probability analysis Runoff and Inundation analysis Target setting: Climate Change Projection Impact Evaluation on Extreme Events by Climate Change Coping strategy

1) Strategic Area Protection by Multiple Measures 2) Land Use Regulation n Watershed Measures ) g 3) Community-based Disaster Management

IWRM capacity development, Legal and Institutional fundamentals p y p , g f

Program

Flood control, Reservoir, dikes, Flood ways, Protection wall, Monitoring, O/M

Land use control, Storm Retention, Water Infiltration, Runoff control,

Risk assessment, Early warning, Evacuation, Flood proofing,

Flood fighting, Community Based Disaster Management

Poverty n Vulnerability Alleviation, Gender, Disability

Changing hydrology and water resources

Models for downscaling CC g
A) B) C) D) E) AGCM20 GCM dynamic downscaling GCM ensemble Simple statistical downscaling Others

Uncertainty
by b models, d l by climatology, by CO2 projection, and by mitigations

Damagepotentialandimpactassessment, followedbyAdaptivePlanning followed by Adaptive Planning

Magnitude Damage potential and of flood impact Small Medium Large Extreme Little damage, avoidable Damage on livelihood, no casualty Heavy damage, must be controlled Severe damage, need comprehensive works Strategy in case of Small Medium g Large Extreme Selectable Measures to be taken Preventive strategy mainly y by infrastructure Preventive strategy with some response measures Combination of designed g prevention and response More emphasis on response side measures

Impactassessbasedonwide rangeofhazardprojections

adaptiveplanningwithmultiple scenarioselections

(asampleconcept) (a sample concept )

ASEAN Standard of Disaster Management in:

Disaster Evidence, for information sharing and archive , g
Type, Cause, Magnitude, Impacts, etc.

Hazard monitoring, for risk analyzing and early warning

Hydro-meteorological observation, Social and economic stats etc. observation stats, etc

Tools for Risk analysis, for identifying risks and places

Flood and Inundation analysis, Damage and Impact assessment, etc.

Capacity Evaluation, for improving DRR strategically

Legal and institutional fundamentals, communications, etc.

Climate Change Adaptation, for coping with g g p , p g global issues

Models for downscaling CC, Analytical method, Planning, etc.

Japans support to ASEAN Disaster Management

1. 1 AHA Center Establishment 2. Supporting Study 3. Joint Research

Hitoshi BABA Ph.D. Environment and Resource Engineering Senior Advisor Japan International Cooperation Agency

JAPAN-ASEAN Cooperation for Disaster Risk Reduction

Other Regional Framework

ASEAN
Indonesia Philippines Malaysia

ACDM AADMER
Disasterrisk identification, identification, assessmentand monitoring Disasterpreventionand mitigation Disasterpreparedness Di d Emergencyresponse Technicalcooperation andscientificresearch Rehabilitation PreparednessandResponse Recovery Institutionalization OutreachandMainstreaming TrainingandKnowledge Management InformationManagementand CommunicationTechnology C i i T h l

Examplesof Actions &Output

RegionalDisasterRisk Assessmentprogram, technicalguidelines RegionalEarlywarning programand operationsystems, trainingprogram Regionalmonitoring guidelines, Satellitebasedisaster monitoringsystem Regionaltraining DatabaseandInformation System Researchactivities

APEC ADPC
UNISDR WBASEAN project
UNESCAP ExpertGroup, UNESCAP Committee onDisaster Risk

AHACenter WORKPROGRAMME20102015
RiskAssessment,Early WarningandMonitoring PreventionandMitigation Partnership Resourcemobilization

Thailand Vietnam Myanmar y Cambodia Laos Brunei Singapore

AllJAPAN

JICA

Advisertoformulate CooperationActivities andtosupportAHA Center

Study toprofile availableresourcesof DRR andtoformulate CooperationActivities

JointResearch for reducingdisasterrisks andvulnerabilityin ASEANcountries

Technology, Knowledge& Satellitedata

SENTINELAsia, GFAS,IFAS,GEOSS, ALOS,MTSAT,etc.

Supporting ADRC Initiatives

DRHAsia

ICHARM

JAXA

EORC

JMA

Consideration
Various initiatives surrounding ASEAN DRR g Collaborate with UNISDR, WB and other partners Consider Asian-monsoon characteristic Utilize resourceful technology and experiences in this region Develop technical t d d D l t h i l standard

Japan s Japans Support to ASEAN DRR

1. Support AHA Center Establishment
Adviser to help AHA Center implementing action plans and operating programs and to formulate Cooperation Activities Information and communication facilities of the Center Profiling available resources and information of DRR in ASEAN member countries in order to enrich the AHA Center Database Formulating Cooperation Activities g p Developing regional standard for flood risk assessment Research on Disaster-proof Infrastructure optimized with cost and benefit Comprehensive Disaster Risk Assessment of Mega-Cities in ASEAN Disaster Vulnerability Assessment and Business Continuity Plan of Major Industrial Areas in ASEAN Worst W t case scenario simulation, learning from Great East Japan Earthquake i i l ti l i f G tE tJ E th k

2. 2

Study to support AADMER Work Program

3.

Joint Research (subjects candidate to be discussed further)

Subject matters of the supporting study

1. Profiling available resources and information of DRR in ASEAN member countries in order to enrich the AHA Center Database
Progress and plans of regional activities/projects under existing initiatives of many supporting entities addressing disaster management in ASEAN, based on previous initiative*. Existing plans of disaster risk assessment and outputs (hazard map, risk map) in each member country Available data base and software which are operational to disaster risk management in each member country Present capacity of disaster risk monitoring on hydrology, meteorology, seismology and damage assessment Present capacity of disaster response concerning organizational structure, command system and laws and regulations

2.

Formulating candidate Japan -ASEAN cooperation activities/projects on disaster risk reduction

Regional Disaster risk assessment Program, technical guidelines g g g Regional Early Warning Program and Operation Systems, training program Regional Monitoring Guidelines, Satellite-base disaster monitoring system Regional Training Database and Information System Collation of existing practices for assessing catastrophic risks that have been applied in ASEAN countries including JICA bilateral projects Promote joint learning and knowledge sharing Develop and build consensus on regional standard approach(es) for catastrophic flood risks assessment in ASEAN Develop capacities of ASEAN countries and the AHA Centre in flood risk assessment

3.

Developing regional standard for flood risk assessment

*SynthesisReportonTenASEANCountriesDisasterRisksAssessment,ASEANDisasterRiskManagementInitiative.December2010

Way forward
Source: Synthesis Report on Ten ASEAN Countries Disaster Risks Assessment. ASEAN Disaster Risk Management Initiative, December 2010
AdditionalanalysesonthemostdamagingquickonsetofDisasters(floods,storms (typhoonsandcyclones),earthquakesandTsunamis. Level1:Ananalysisofriskaggregationbyhazardtypeandarea atahigher levelofresolution(forexamplea100kmgrid). Level2:Worstcasescenariosforthehighlypopulatedcitieswithquantification oflosses,estimatingtherangeofprobabilityofoccurrenceofthescenarios. Level3:Fullyprobabilisticanalysiscontainingalltheelementsofstandardrisk analysis.

Required ASEAN standard

To secure minimum requirement of risk assessment
Information to be retrieved quickly through cool interface Methodology that could be commonly used by partners when needed to implement analysis effectively

To compare risks by country or region based on common criteria To conduct real time risk assessment effectively in emergency To match with various conditions, such as budget constrain, geological conditions, socio-economic conditions To develop outcomes of partners support to regional level

ASEAN Standard classification by:

Terminology Type of disaster T f di
Flood, Drought, Storm (Inc. Typhoon, Cyclone), Earthquake, Tsunami, Landslide, Volcano, Wildfire (Inc. Forest fire), Epidemic, Human Induced (Inc. Industrial Incident, Nuclear Accident)

Scale f S l of geographic focus hi f

Regional, National, Sub-National

Database
Disaster profile, loss, provability, studies, etc. p , ,p y, , Database system, index model,

Methodologies and tools

Type of analysis
Analysis for each disaster type analysis for multi hazard type, Analysis for hazard, vulnerability, risk, coping capacity

Required data (ground observation, satellite, etc.) Resolution levels by disaster type and analysis type Accuracy interface, etc. Accuracy, interface etc

Schedule

2011 2012

Nov: Dec: Apr: May:

p p preparation of Activities mobilization of Advisor Inception of Study Regional workshop on FRA