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.M' OB Mod. \_ -, ~
Overconfidence Bias We tend to be overc onfid ent abou t our abilit ies and the
. of other s; also, we are usual ly not aware of this bias. For exam p1e,
a b l·1·It:J.es
64
in num-
when peop le say they' re 90 perce nt confi dent abou t the range a certa
abou t
ber migh t take, their estim ated range s conta in the corre ct answ er only
up confi -
50 perce nt of the time -and exper ts are no more accur ate in settin g
65
denc e interv als than are novic es.
1 4 ,C-I
Focus on Goals. Witho ut goals, you can't be rational, you don't know
what inform ation you
you'll find it
need, you don't know which information is relevant and which is irrelevant,
ence regret
difficu lt to choose between alternatives, and you're far more likely to experi
help you eliminate
over the choices you make. Clear goals make decision making easier and
option s that are inconsistent with your interests.
Look for Inform ation That Disconfirms Your Beliefs. One of the most
effective means for
is to actively look
counteracting overconfidence and the confirmation and hindsight biases
overtly consider
for inform ation that contradicts your beliefs and assumptions. When we
we're smarter than
various ways we could be wrong, we challenge our tendencies to think
we actually are.
Don't Try to Create Meani ng out of Random Events. The educated
mind has been traine d
ask why. And
to look for cause-and-effect relationships. When something happens, we
that there are events
when we can't find reasons, we often invent them. You have to accept
ingfull y explained
in life that are outside your control. Ask yourself if patterns can be mean
ng out of
or wheth er -t hey are merely coincidence. Don't attem pt to create meani
coincidence.
on of commitment
escalati a
n increased c o mm itment to
A
decision de spite negative
previous
information.
randomness error The tendency
of individuats to believe, that they
can predict the outcome of random
events.
lllllla....__
risk aversion The tendency to
prefer a sure gain of a moderate
amount over a riskier outcome, even
if the riskier outcome might have a
higher expected payoff.
deonance A perspective in
which ethical decisions are made
because you "ought to" in order to
be consistent with moral norms,
principles, standards, rules, or laws.
behavioral ethics Analyzing how
people behave when confronted with
ethical dilemmas.
al
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Ex hi bi t 5- 7 Thr.ee-St~g
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Cr ea tiv e be ha vio r
No vel ty Usefulness
OB POLL ' '. ·:/_::·?:~%i~-,~, :·:,_•>. ·•_(:i,,,,,~,:'.H·~;~tii/if"'- ~- D
When asked to identify their top three goals for the upcoming year, percentage
of leaders who ranked goals listed below in one of their top three
Developing leaders
51.6%
•
Retaining talerit
46.1%
Recruiting talent
Containing costs ·
35.5%
Fostering innovation ·
f'