Australian Journal of Earth Sciences (2008) 55, (125 139)

Milestones in the evolution of the atmosphere with reference to climate change*

A. Y. GLIKSON
Department of Earth & Marine Science, and Planetary Science Institute, Australian National University, ACT 0200, Australia (andrew.glikson@anu.edu.au).
The history of life on Earth is critically dependent on the carbon, sulfur and oxygen cycles of the lithosphere hydrosphere atmosphere biosphere system. An Archean oxygen-poor greenhouse atmosphere developed through: (i) accumulation of CO2 and CH4 from episodic injections of CO2 from volcanic activity, volatilised crust impacted by asteroids and comets, metamorphic devolatilisation processes and release of methane from sediments; and (ii) little CO2 weathering-capture due to both high temperatures of the hydrosphere (low CO2 solubility) and a low ratio of exposed continents to oceans. In the wake of the Sturtian glaciation, enrichment in oxygen and appearance of multicellular eukaryotes heralded the onset of the Phanerozoic where greenhouse conditions were interrupted by periods of strong CO2-sequestration through intensied capture of CO2 by marine plants, onset of land plants and burial of carbonaceous shale and coal (Late Ordovician; Carboniferous Permian; Late Jurassic; Late Tertiary Quaternary). The progression from Late Mesozoic and Early Tertiary greenhouse conditions to Late Tertiary Quaternary ice ages was related to the sequestration of CO2 by rapid weathering of the emerging Alpine and Himalayan mountain chains. A number of peak warming and sea-level-rise events include the Late Oligocene, mid-Miocene, mid-Pliocene and Pleistocene glacial terminations. The Late Tertiary Quaternary ice ages were dominated by cyclic orbital-forcingtriggered terminations which involved CO2-feedback effects from warming seas and the biosphere and albedo ips due to ice-sheet melting. Since ca AD 1750 human emissions were *305 Gt of carbon, as compared with *750 Gt C in the atmosphere. The emissions constitute *12% of the terrestrial biosphere and *10% of the known global fossil fuel reserve of *4000 Gt C, whose combustion would compare to the * 4600 Gt C released to the atmosphere during the K T impact event 65 million years ago, with associated *65% mass extinction of species. The current growth rate of atmospheric greenhouse gases and global mean temperatures exceed those of Pleistocene glacial terminations by one to two orders of magnitude. The relationship between temperatures and sea-levels for the last few million years project future sea-level rises toward time-averaged values of at least 5 m per 18C. The instability of ice sheets suggested by the Dansgaard Oeschinger glacial cycles during 50 20 ka, observed ice melt lag effects of glacial terminations, spring ice collapse dynamics and the doubling per-decade of Greenland and west Antarctic ice melt suggest that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes projected sea-level rises (559 cm) for the 21st century may be exceeded. The biological and philosophical rationale underlying climate change and mass extinction perpetrated by an intelligent carbon-emitting mammal species may never be known. KEY WORDS: atmosphere, climate change, greenhouse, impact, mass extinction, volcanism.

EVOLUTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE HYDROSPHERE BIOSPHERE SYSTEM

The intermediate spatial position of Earth between Mars and Venus is reected by the state of its atmosphere [mean T 188C (750 to 558C); 100 kPa; N *79%; O2 *20%; CO2 *250 381 ppm; liquid water], somewhere between the greenhouse state of Venus (44508C; 9000 kPa; CO2 and SO2) and the thin near-waterless state of Mars (7113 to 08C; *1 kPa; CO2 *95.3%; O2 *0.13%). The evolution of atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, oxygen, nitrogen,

nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and dust with time manifests an intimate interdependence between climate states, the physical and chemical parameters of the oceans, continent ocean geotectonic and continent elevation patterns, ice sheets, vegetation and life forms (Frakes et al. 1992; Beerling et al. 2002; Berner 2004, 2006; Beerling & Berner 2005, 2006; Royer 2006; Berner & Beerling 2007; Berner et al. 2007; Royer et al. 2007). High geothermal gradients and greenhouse conditions on the early Earth resulted in warm oceans, induced by release of methane and carbon dioxide from volcanic activity and asteroid/comet impact-volatilised

*This is one of a series of invited review papers addressing aspects of the themes for the International Year of Planet Earth. ISSN 0812-0099 print/ISSN 1440-0952 online 2008 Geological Society of Australia DOI: 10.1080/08120090701689308

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relative to oceanic domains, based on geochemical evidence (Glikson 2001), including isotopic Sm Nd evidence (McCulloch & Bennett 1994), reduced rock exposure, weathering and CO2 sequestration. The low oxygen, and thus reduced rock weathering, and the lack of land vegetation and therefore lesser degree of organicinduced leaching of CaO and MgO to precipitate carbonate, minimised CO2 capture, as reected by the relative scarcity of carbonate sediments in Archean terrains. The origin of Precambrian ice ages, including the Huronian (ca 2.4 2.1 Ga) and the Cryogenian (850 630 Ma Sturtian and Marinoan snowball Earth glaciationsthe Gradstein & Ogg (2004) time-scale is followed throughout this paper), reaching a peak at 607.8 + 4.7 Ma (Kirschvink 1992; Hoffman et al. 1998), is an open question. Possibilities include uplift of Pan African mobile belts with consequent CO2-weathering sequestration, or oxidation of methane-rich greenhouse atmosphere, reducing its greenhouse intensity. The appearance of multicellular Ediacaran fauna in the wake of the glaciation may be related to lowered CO2 and elevated oxygen levels (Caneld et al. 2007). Phanerozoic CO2 and O2 levels and paleotemperatures reveal a dominance of greenhouse conditions in the Early Paleozoic (ca 500 Ma: *4000 ppm CO2) (Figure 1). The appearance of the rst land plants in

crust, and low degrees of CO2 sequestration, due to high water temperature (low CO2 solubility), low continent/ ocean ratio and thereby low exposure of rocks and low CO2-weatherning capture. Low-oxygen and low-pH conditions of the hydrosphere are evidenced by the abundance during 3.85 1.8 Ga of banded iron-formation, requiring soluble ferrous iron in seawater (Trendall & Blockley 1970; Cloud 1973; Morris 1993). Low oxygen levels are also evidenced by unoxidised pyrite and uraninite in sediments. Consequently, a methane-rich and possibly CO-rich atmosphere may be inferred. Whereas, at present, atmospheric CO levels vary between 0.01 and 2.0%, an unoxic Archean atmosphere with higher CO and CH4 levels resulted in predominantly methane-synthesising microbial communities, combining CO2 with hydrogen released by breakdown of H2O. Consequently, views of the Archean hydrosphere suggest acidic anoxic oceans inhabited by ironand sulfur-metabolising microbes [phototrophic purple sulfur bacteria (Chromatiaceae) and green sulfur bacteria (Chlorobiaceae)] (Brocks et al. 2003, 2005). Least-altered eclaves of cherts in the ca 3.5 3.2 Ga Swaziland Supergroup, Barberton Greenstone Belt, South Africa, display low d18O values indicating extremely high ocean temperatures (*55 858C) (Knauth & Lowe 2003), sharply reducing the solubility of CO2. The relatively small size of Archean continental nuclei

Figure 1 Phanerozoic climate change diagram showing short-term and averaged mean temperature proxy (plankton) variations in d18O, glacial periods dened by glacial deposits and paleotemperatures, major volcanic events (triangles), asteroid impacts (stars) and mass extinctions (stop signs). Oxygen isotope plots, time-scale and ice age intervals after Robert A. Rhode (University of California, Berkeley); annotations of volcanic activity, asteroid impacts, mass extinctions and biological events added by AYG.

Milestones in evolution of the atmosphere

the Late Silurian (ca 420 Ma) was associated with a marked decline in CO2 levels, probably due to photosynthesis, thereby reducing temperatures, and an increase in oxygen from *15 to *25% O2. The advent of land plants resulted in a coupled evolution of vegetation, the carbon and oxygen cycles, heralding a fundamental change in the nature of the atmosphere hydrosphere system (Beerling & Berner 2005) (Figure 3). Glacial conditions were reached during the Late Carboniferous Early Permian (Figures 1, 2). Negative feedbacks include absorption of CO2 by plants and soil, burial of fossil organic matter, chemical weathering enhanced by plants, with leaching of soluble CaO and MgO from rock and soil and subsequent precipitation of carbonate. Glacial periods were terminated by solar insolation maxima, triggering positive CO2 and CH4 feedbacks amplied by warming hydrosphere and emanations from drying/burning vegetation and from drying bogs and sediments. Burial of carbon, representing the balance between photosynthesis and respiration (Beerling et al. 2002; Beerling & Berner 2005; Berner 2004, 2006; Royer 2006; Royer et al. 2007), reached peaks in the northern

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hemisphere during the Carboniferous Early Permian and in Gondwanaland during the Permian. The removal and burial of atmospheric CO2 by plants during the Carboniferous/Permian, especially in the form of microbially resistant lignin, led to a large drop in atmospheric CO2, reducing greenhouse effect and setting the stage for the vast Permo-Carboniferous glaciation (Figures 1 3). Burial and removal of carbon-rich matter from the biosphere atmosphere system resulted in the increased accumulation O2, reaching levels as high as 30% O2 in the PermoCarboniferous (Figure 3). Increased O2 and decreased CO2 in the atmosphere results in gigantism in plants aimed at absorbing sufcient CO2, and in insects and amphibians, which breathe via diffusive processes (Berner et al. 2007). The effects of catastrophic volcanism associated with the Permian Triassic boundary at ca 251 Ma, with consequent CO2 release, low-pH oceans and induced anoxia, saw a decrease in vegetation and in carbon burial, and thereby a decrease in O2 production (Figure 3) (Keller 2005). Greenhouse Earth conditions persisted through the Late Mesozoic, with occasional glacial breaks such as in

Figure 2 CO2 and climate. (a) Comparison of GEOCARB-III model predictions and proxy reconstructions of CO2. Ten-millionyear time-steps are used in both curves. Shaded area represents range of error for model predictions. (b) Intervals of glacial (dark zones) or cool climates (light zones). (c) Latitudinal distribution of direct glacial records (tillites, striated bedrock, etc.) throughout the Phanerozoic (Royer et al. 2004).

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Figure 3 Atmospheric O2 variations through the Phanerozoic. Upper and lower boundaries are estimates of errors in modelling atmospheric O2 concentrations. The numbered intervals denote evolutionary events that may be linked to changes in O2 concentrations (Berner 2006). Asteroid and volcanic events symbols added by AYG.

the Jurassic (Figures 1, 2). Given marked temperature variations between the Jurassic (minimum temperatures similar to the present) and the mid to Late Cretaceous (maximum mean temperatures about 48C higher than at present) (Figures 1, 2), the *200-millionyear-long survival of the dinosaurs is in part attributable to the development of specialised bird-type breathing apparatus (Berner et al. 2007). Veizer et al.s (1999) comprehensive oxygen isotope database was used by Shaviv & Veizer (2003) to invoke an effect of cosmic rays on cloud nucleation and thereby Phanerozoic climate evolution. The theory depends on carbonate d18O temperature correlations and on cosmic ray ages of meteorites. The oxygen isotope temperature correlations were criticised on the basis of: (i) disagreement with the Phanerozoic glacial sedimentary record and lack of pH correction of the data (Royer et al. 2004); and (ii) the high uncertainties inherent in the cosmic ray ages of the meteorites, which very likely reect space collision ages (Rahmstorf et al. 2004).

CATASTROPHIC ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS OF VOLCANIC AND ASTEROID IMPACTS

Several Phanerozoic mass extinctions coincide with the time of, or overlap, volcanic and extraterrestrial impact events, within the resolution of isotopic age determinations (Glikson 2005; Keller 2005) (Figure 4). Whereas such coincidences do not prove cause-and-effect rela-

tionships, it is likely the extinctions are related in large degree to atmospheric changes in greenhouse gas and oxygen levels associated with these events, which triggered longer-term changes due to CO2 and CH4 feedback from oceans and the biosphere. The main examples are summarised below (Figure 4): (1) Mass extinction (*42% of genera) in the midCambrian (ca 513 Ma) associated with the eruption of the Antrim Plateau Basalts (513 507 Ma) and elsewhere. (2) Mass extinction (*58% of genera) in the Late Devonian (Frasnian Famennian boundary ca 374 Ma) and end-Devonian (ca 359 Ma) associated with a cluster of large asteroids (Woodleigh *120 km Dcrater; Alamo *100 km; Siljan *52 km; Charlevoix *54 km; and a number of smaller impacts: Glikson 2005), accompanied by high CO2 levels (*2000 3000 ppm), high temperature (2 58C above present levels) and low oxygen (*14 15%) (Figures 1 3). (3) The massive eruption of Siberian basalts at ca 251 Ma (Changhsingian) was associated with catastrophic changes in the atmosphere and hydrosphere, triggering the largest extinction in Earth history (*78% of genera; PT event: Keller 2005). A sharp CO2 spike of up to 2300 ppm occurred due to volcanic gases and sharp reduction in vegetation and burial rates of organic matter (R. Berner pers. comm. 2007) (Figure 5). (4) Mass extinction of *35% of genera at ca 216 203 Ma could have been enhanced by large extraterrestrial impacts (ca 214 Ma: Manicouagan *100 km; Rochechourat *23 km). Sharp CO2 spikes and low oxygen

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Figure 4 Mass extinctions, asteroid impacts and large igneous provinces during the Phanerozoic (modied from Keller 2005 gure 1). Stratigraphic subdivisions and numerical ages from Gradstein & Ogg (2004). The extinction record is based on genus-level data by Sepkoski (1996) and follows an earlier compilation by MacLeod (1998, 2003), with some modication based on Hallam & Wignall (1997). The number of impact events, size and age of the craters largely follow the Earth Impact Database (2005). Time-scale after Gradstein & Ogg (2004).

Figure 5 Variations in CO2 levels (solid squares) and burial rate of organic matter (open circles) across the Permian Triassic boundary (251 Ma), showing a spike in CO2 (near 2300 ppm) accompanied by a sharp reduction in organic activity reected by burial of organic matter in 1018 mol/106 years (R. Berner, pers. com. 2007).

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Based on current climate-sensitivity measurements (Andreae et al. 2005; Hansen et al. 2007b), atmospheric CO2 rises result in temperature increase in the approximate order of *18C per 100 ppm CO2, implying signicant temperature rises associated with greenhouse gas release in the PT and KT events. No correlations between mass extinctions at the endCambrian (ca 488 Ma *40% of genera) and the endOrdovician (444 Ma *60% of genera) and major volcanic or extraterrestrial impacts are evident from Kellers (2005) compilation.

(*15% O2) levels associated with the end-Triassic (Norian ca 200 Ma) are attributed to extensive volcanic activity associated with opening of the incipient Atlantic Ocean at ca 202 200 Ma (Berner & Beerling 2007). These authors estimated release of 21 000 Gt C as CO2 and 57 000 Gt S as SO2, resulting in a low pH and consequent undersaturation of the oceans in calcium carbonate. Mean values across the boundary include high CO2 levels and temperature (58C above present levels) and low oxygen levels (15 20%) (Figure 3). (5) The end-Jurassic (Tithonian ca 145 Ma) was associated with a major asteroid impact cluster (Morokweng 490 km; Mjolnir 40 km; Gosses Bluff 24 km). Mass extinction reached 20% of genera. (6) The Cretaceous Tertiary boundary Chicxulub Boltish impact cluster (KT impact) (Alvarez et al. 1980; Keller 2005): according to Beerling et al. (2002), Late Cretaceous Early Tertiary background CO2 levels of 350 500 ppm peaked at 2300 ppm within 10 000 years of the KT impact, due to instantaneous transfer of *4600 Gt C to the atmosphere. Preceding and accompanying Deccan Plateau volcanism contributed to a CO2and SO2-rich atmosphere. A resultant climatic forcing of 12 W/m2 would have been sufcient to warm the Earths surface by *7.58C above present levels in the absence of albedo shielding by sulfate aerosols. However, the presence of evaporite sediments in the Chicxulub crater target rocks suggests release of large volumes of sulfate as well as dust, resulting in a short impact winter (Toon et al. 1997), followed by intense greenhouse effects, inducing high-level extinction of genera *48% (Keller 2005) (Figure 4).

FROM A TERTIARY GREENHOUSE WORLD TO QUATERNARY ICE AGES

Zachos et al. (2001) summarised the evidence for Cenozoic climate changes from deep-sea sediment core, including: (i) gradual trends of warming and cooling driven by tectonic processes on time-scales of 105 to 107 years; (ii) rhythmic or periodic cycles driven by orbital processes on time-scale of 104 to 106 years; and (iii) rare rapid climate shifts with durations of 103 to 105 years. Intermittent rises in the mean global temperature following the KT boundary impact were punctuated at the Paleocene Eocene boundary (55 Ma) by a release of methane hydrates from ocean sediments (Figure 6). Mass-balance calculations indicating a lowering of d13C in the order of 2.5% suggest addition of *1500 Gt C of isotopically light carbon to the atmosphere and oceans, raising CO2 levels to 900 ppm (Gingerich 2006). As methane has 23 times the greenhouse effect of CO2, its

Figure 6 65 million years of climate change based on sedimentary and isotopic studies of marine sediments (modied after Zachos et al. 2001).

Milestones in evolution of the atmosphere

Table 1 Greenhouse-gas levels, greenhouse-gas rise rates, mean CH4, mean temperatures, temperature rise rates per CO2, sea-levels and sea-level rise rates per year and per 18C for the Late Holocene, Glacial Termination-I, Glacial termination-II and Mid-Pliocene.

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release resulted in a decrease in d18O of 1 2%, suggesting the deep and high-latitude oceans warmed by *7 88C above present levels and mid-latitude terrestrial temperatures by *4 58C above present levels (Zachos et al. 2001; Gingerich 2006; Higgins & Schrag 2006; Wing et al. 2005). This was accompanied by a mass extinction of benthic foraminifera and, at the same time, diversication of continental mammals. Sharp rises in temperature and sea-levels are recorded in the Late Oligocene (21 Ma) and mid-Miocene (Figure 6). A Quaternary greenhouse event is documented in the mid-Pliocene (ca 3 Ma), when temperatures rose *2 58C higher than at present and sea-levels by *25 + 12 m (Dowsett et al. 1994, 2005; Haywood & Williams 2005), peaking at 35 m in Florida (Table 1; Figure 7). Estimates of sea-surface temperature based on alkenone of marine algae indicate a 58C rise in tropical oceans, whereas oxygen isotopes in foraminifera suggest that warming occurred mainly at higher latitudes between 3.3 and 3.0 Ma. The widespread nature of temperature rises and stomata measurements indicating CO2 levels of 360 400 ppm suggest global greenhouse effects as well as altered ocean heat transport, accompanied by feedback relationships (Haywood & Williams 2005). Quaternary glacial interglacial cycles triggered by orbital-forcing (Milankovitch 1941; Imbrie & Imbrie 1980), namely eccentricity (*100 000 and *400 000 year periods), obliquity (41 000 year period), and climatic precession (*19 000 and *23 000 year periods), demonstrated by d18O of marine sediments and ice cores (Hays et al. 1976), are reected by radiation spikes on the scale of 40 100 W/m2 for June 658N insolation (Roe 2006), and several degrees rises in mean global temperature. Subsequent greenhouse gas feedback effects amplify glacial terminations, accounting for the lag of CO2 rises behind temperature rises by an average of 700 years (Hansen et al. 2007a). A close correlation ensues between insolation rises, decrease in ice volumes (Figure 8) and increase in the rate of ice-sheet volume changes (dv/dt), where sea-level rise lags by several thousand years behind ice-sheet melt (Roe 2006) (Figure 9). Paleo-sea-level studies (Siddall et al. 2003, 2006), temperature and greenhouse gas glacial interglacial age proles (Petit et al. 1999; EPICA Community Members 2004; Siegenthaler et al. 2005; Hansen et al. 2007a) document a sea-level rise of 2 to 4 m higher than at present at Termination II (Emian, 130 122 ka) (Figures 8, 9). Others suggest a sharp sea-level rise to 6 to 8 m and a short highstand for *600 years on the basis of wave-cut notches, rubble benches and shoreline sediments (Hearty & Neumann 2001), consistent with partial collapse of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets. This would have involved a ux of freshwater and disruption of the thermohaline circulation (Hansen et al. 2007b). Following peak temperatures at ca 130 126 ka, sea-levels continued to rise between 124.5 and 122.5 ka (Figure 9; Table 1). The overall mean global temperature rise associated with the Emian from ca 130 ka, based on the Vostok ice core (Petit et al. 1999), is about 4.58C (half the Vostok anomaly). During the last glacial period (ca 50 20 ka), a highly unstable state of the Laurentian, Scandinavian and

1.7 cm/yr

1.3 cm/yr

Sea-level cm/y

124.5 122.5 ka: 6 to 8 m APL 0.012 0.0006 Glacial Termination-II (after Petit et al. 1999; Siddall et al. 2003; IPCC 2007) 130 128 ka *190 290 139 130 ka: 0.011 ppm/y *320 720 1.28C global

Anthropocene/Holocene [(1) mean global T (IPCC 2007); (2) Mouna Loa (USGS); (3) Siddall et al. 2003; Rahmstorf 2007] 1970 2006 *325 382 [2] 1.6 1400 1750 [2] 13.9 14.5 [1] 0.017 0.011 1970 2006: 9 cm 1850 1970 280 325 [1] 0.37 750 1400 [2] 13.7 13.9 [1] 0.0017 0.004 1870 1970: 11 cm 10 ka 1750 265 285 [1] 70.002 *700 [2] 7 ka 1750: oscillating to near stable [3]

795 to 762 m (33 m)

762 to 712 (50 m)

Sea-level (cm, m) APL

T8C/1 ppm CO2

0.15

Mean T8C/y

0.0003

0.0019

Mean CH4 ppb

Glacial Termination-I (after Petit et al. 1999; Siddall et al. 2003) 11.5 8.5 ka *265 260 Decline *600 In CO2 14 11.5 ka *235 265 0.012 ppm/y *450 600

Mid-Pliocene [(1) Dowsett et al. 1999; (2) Haywood & Williams 2005] 3.29 2.97 Ma 360 400

Mean CO2 ppm

CO2 rate ppm/y

2 38C APL (1); 58C APL (2) APL, above present level.

Mean T8C

1.0

Period

4.5

25 + 12 (1)

0.008

0.25 0.11

850 1250

Sea-level cm/18C

500 660

15 55

5000

730

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Figure 7 Five million years of climate change, correlating benthic oxygen isotopes with Vostok equivalent temperatures. Oxygen isotope plots, Vostok equivalent temperatures, time-scale and cycle frequencies after Zachos et al. (2001); indication of human evolution stages added by AYG after Leakey (1981).

Greenland ice sheets is revealed by the Dansgaard Oeschger cycles, which involve sharp cyclic variations in temperatures of many degrees Celsius and sharp sealevel rises of many tens of metres in cycles with a periodic signal of about 1 500 000 years (Alley 2000) (Figure 10). The regularity of these cycles, considered to represent orbital forcing (Ganopolski & Rahmstorf 2002) and their global effect, which included tropical regions such as the Bahamas (Broecker 2000), bear signicant implications for the stability of the ice sheets. Comparison between Siddall et al.s (2006) sea-level data and Petit et al.s (1999) Vostok ice core paleotemperature data indicates that sea-level rise lag effects continued for a further 4000 years following stabilisation of temperatures at Termination-I (ca 11.5 ka, Younger Dryas), raising sea-levels by a further 40 m by 7 ka (Figure 11). Whereas tentative evidence may suggest a large asteroid impact to have occurred during this period (Dalton 2007), the relationships between this event and the climate change associated with the Younger Dryas is unknown.

ANTHROPOCENE
According to Ruddiman (2003), following Termination-I at ca 11.5 ka, the natural interglacial cycle has been interrupted by Neolithic burning and land clearing, preventing a decline in CO2 and CH4 and the onset of the next glacial. Since the mid-17th century, the increase in

fossil-fuel combustion, accelerating in the mid-19th century and in particular since the mid-1970s (Figures 12, 13; Table 1), dened the current climate change (Hansen et al. 2006, 2007a; Pittock 2007; Rahmstorf et al. 2006; Rahmstorf 2007). The increase in temperatures is accompanied by sealevel rises. The IPCC (2007) report indicated an overall increase in the rate of sea-level rise from 0.18 + 0.05 cm/ y in 1961 2003 to 0.31 + 0.07 cm/y in 1993 2003, including contributions from combined doubling of Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheet melt between these periods (Table 2), related to mean global temperature increases of 0.38C and 0.68C, respectively. According to the IPCC (2007 p. 7) The remainder of the ice loss from Greenland has occurred because losses due to melting have exceeded accumulation due to snowfall. Due to the sparse distribution of measurement stations in Antarctica, the balance between ice melt and snow fall is not clear. NASA satellite gravity and microwave measurements indicate a doubling of Greenland ice melt areas per decade (NASA 2006). Rates of ice loss of the Greenland ice sheet have increased from 0.05 + 0.12 mm/y during 1961 2003 to 0.21 + 0.07 mm/y during 1993 2004. The measurements indicate an increase in ice-sheet melt area by 16% from 1979 to 2002 (Steffen & Huff 2002; Steffen et al. 2004; NASA 2006; Hanna et al. 2005; Thomas et al. 2006; IPCC 2007; Hansen et al. 2007a). Time-variable gravity measurements from the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)

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Figure 8 (a) Sea-level based on Red Sea analysis of Siddall et al. (2003). (b) Climate forcings due to greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O) and surface albedo. (c) Calculated and observed temperatures. The calculated temperature is the product of the forcing (b) and assumed climate sensitivity (3/48C per W/m2); observed temperature is Vostok temperature divided by two (Hansen et al. 2007b).

Figure 9 Sea-levels (Siddall et al. 2006) and temperatures (Petit et al. 1999) during Termination-II (Emian), displaying the lag of sea-level rise behind temperature rise. For mean global temperatures, Vostok and Epica temperatures need to be divided by two.

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Figure 10 Oxygen isotope temperature variation proxies for the Dansgaard Oeschger cycles of the last glacial period (50 20 ka). Inset (after Ganopolski & Rahmstorf 2002) shows the sharp onset (*100 years) and large temperature amplitude (468C) of the termination.

Figure 11 Sea-level variations during Termination-I (20 8 ka) based on analysis of Red Sea sediments and on coral reef studies (Siddall et al. 2006) and compared with Ice-core temperature variations (Alley 2000). Annotations by AYG.

satellites of mass variations of the Antarctic ice sheet during April 2002 August 2005 found that the mass of the ice sheet decreased at a rate of 152 + 80 km3 of ice per year, equivalent to 0.4 + 0.2 mm of global sea-level

rise per year. Most of this mass loss came from the West Antarctic ice sheet, including a water equivalent decrease in ice thickness of 71 to 74 cm/y for the Antarctic peninsula and the Ross Sea Amundsen Sea

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Figure 12 Temperature anomalies relative to the mid-20th century based on proxies (tree rings, oxygen isotopes in coral reefs and foraminifera), indicating the rise in temperature over the second half of the 20th century (Hansen et al. 2006).

shelf area (Rignot & Thomas 2002; Chen et al. 2006; Velicogna & Wahr 2006). GRACE-based estimates by Chen et al. (2006) identied an ice loss of 77 + 14 km3/ year in West Antarctica and gain of 80 + 16 km3/year in Enderby Land of East Antarctica. The IPCC (2007) report estimates a sea-level rise of 18 59 cm by 2100, including a caveat regarding millennia-scale melting of the Greenland ice sheet and the unknown nature of ice-melting dynamics. Rahmstorf (2007) used linear extrapolation of relationships between decadal sea-level rise and global warming, suggesting a proportionally constant value of 0.34 cm/y per 18C temperature rise, projecting sea-level rises of 0.5 1.4 m above the 1990 level by 2100. According to Hansen et al. (2007a), decadal doubling of combined Greenland and Antarctic 1993 2003 melt rates of 0.41 mm/y (Table 2) would lead to *0.5 0.6 m rise by mid-century and *4.6 m rise toward the end of the 21st century. The preceding estimates do not include potential factors for such a sharp decrease in ice-sheet albedo, collapse of the Gulf Stream and changes in the thermohaline circulation (Hansen et al. 2007a; Pittock 2007). Advanced melting of Arctic sea ice documented between 1950 and 2005 (US National Centre Arctic Research reported at 5http://www.arcus.org/4) reduced the extent of September sea ice from *8.5 to *5.0 106 km2, with signicant effects on the Earths albedo. The rapid collapse of ice sheets associated with the Dansgaard Oeschger rapid ice-melting cycles (as short as *100 years) from 50 to 20 ka suggests extreme instability of the ice sheets during glacial periods (Figure 10). It may

be inferred that the ice sheets are as unstable, or even less stable, during interglacial periods. Amplication of anthropogenic greenhouse gas feedback effects by release of methane hydrates from bottom sediments of warming seas, thawing permafrost and tropical bogs, CO2 release from drying vegetation and soil, and extensive bush res in tropical regions threaten higher-order atmospheric and sea-level effects, approaching yet undened tipping points (Glikson 2007; Hansen et al. 2007a, b; Pittock 2007). Observed temperature rises through the 21st century, decoupled from solar insolation temperature effects about the mid-1970 (Figure 13), are tracking at the top of ICPP 2007 predictions (Figure 14). A time-averaged plot of sea-level vs temperature suggests a range from minimum values of *5 m/18C to a maximum value of *50 m/18C (Rahmstorf 2007) (Figure 15; Table 1). If current greenhouse-gas rise rates and ice-sheet melt rates are an indication, the millennia-long delays in sealevel rise shown by Termination-I (Figure 11) may be shortened.

TERMINATION ZERO?
According to Baillie et al. (2004): Extinction rates based on known extinctions of birds, mammals and amphibians over the past 100 years indicate that current extinction rates are 50 to 500 times higher than extinction rates in the fossil record. It has been estimated that continuation of carbon emissions in a

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Figure 13 Variations in insolation radiative forcing (Wattrecorded/m2) and mean temperatures through 1850 2000 (upper gure), and in sunspot activity during 1870 2000 (lower gure) (after Solanki 2002). Note the broad concordance of insolation and temperatures to about 1975, including a decline in both parameters during 1950 1970 due to decline in sun-spot activity and increased aerosols, followed by decoupling of temperature and insolation and increase in temperatures by about 0.58C attributed to the rise in greenhouse gases.

Table 2 Observed rate of sea-level rise and estimated contributions from different sources (after IPCC 2007 table 5.3). Source of sea-level rise Thermal expansion Glaciers and ice caps Greenland ice sheet Antarctic ice sheet Sum of individual contributions to sea-level rise Observed total sea-level rise (A) 1961 2003 mm/yr 0.42 + 0.12 0.50 + 0.18 0.05 + 0.12 0.14 + 0.41 1.1 + 0.5 (B) 1993 2003 mm/yr 1.6 + 0.5 0.77 + 0.22 0.21 + 0.07 0.21 + 0.35 2.8 + 0.7 (B)/(A) 3.8 1.54 4.2 1.5 2.5

1.8 + 0.5

3.1 + 0.7

1.72

business as usual scenario will result in global warming of 38C over the 21st century, eliminating a majority (60%) of species on the planet (Flannery 2005; Hansen et al. 2006). The origin and nature of the Anthropocene mass extinction differ fundamentally from those of earlier events. Based on paleo-sea-levels

(Siddall et al. 2003, 2006) and ice-core paleotemperature studies (Petit et al. 1999; EPICA Community Members 2004; Siegenthaler et al. 2005) the relationships between greenhouse-gas forcing, temperature and sea-level rises since the mid-19th century differed in fundamental ways from Termination-I (11.5 8.0 ka) and Termination-II (Emian *130 122 ka) (Table 1) in several respects. (1) Rates of CO2 rise since the 1970s (1970 2006: 1.6 ppm/y; 21st century 42.0 ppm/y) are four times higher than during 1850 1970 (0.42 ppm/y) and two orders of magnitude higher than at Termination-I (0.012 ppm/y) and Termination-II (0.011 ppm/y) (Table 1). CO2 levels rose to *380 ppm in 2006, more than 30% above the maximum levels of *290 ppm during the last 740 000 years. (2) The ratio of temperature rise per 1 ppm CO2 since 1850 1970 (0.0048C/1 ppm CO2) has more than doubled during 1970 2003 (0.0118C/1 ppm CO2). These values are lower than Termination-I (0.158C/1 ppm CO2), possibly due to temperature-rise lag effects. (3) Rising sea-level rates (from 0.11 cm/y during 1870 1970 to 0.25 cm/y during 1970 2003) are signicantly lower than of Termination-I. Metre-scale sea-level rises can be expected if temperatures track the high range estimates of *1.8 4.08C toward the end of the 21st century (Houghton et al. 2001; IPCC 2007), as

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137

Figure 14 Changes in key global climate parameters since 1973, including CO2 rise, temperature rise and sea-level rise, compared with IPCC (2007) scenarios (shaded areas and discontinuous lines) (Rahmstorf 2007). Note all parameters are tracking at the top of the IPCC projections.

Figure 15 Mean global temperature and sea-level (relative to the present) at different times in Earths history, including projection toward the year 2100 as indicated by the open arrow. In the longer term, rises in sea-level would tend toward the timeaveraged sea-level temperature plot.

observed by Rahmstorf (2007), and may reach several metres in a non-linear ice-melt scenario (Hansen et al. 2007a). (4) The long residence time of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (5 200 years) and the lag effects of ice-cap

melting are matched by the inertia of the carbonemitting species Homo sapiens. With CO2 levels rising above 400 ppm at rates 42 ppm/y, it is likely that global warming of at least another 18C is already on track (Hansen et al. 2007a, b; Pittock 2007; Rahmstorf

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A. Y. Glikson
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2007), compounded by as-yet little-dened feedback effects from warming oceans, thawing permafrost, drying and burning vegetation, and major albedo reductions associated with melting ice sheets and reduced aerosol levels. Ever since humans gained control over the use of re, before 100 ka and possibly as far back as 700 ka, their impact over the natural environment has been increasing, perhaps justifying a redenition of the species as Homo prometheus. The biological and philosophical questions of the underlying rationale for this phenomenonmajor climate change and mass extinction triggered by a mammal speciesdefy understanding. Metaphorically perhaps, having reached the pinnacle of intelligence and consciousness in the animal kingdom, the human species is now paying the price for forbidden insights into the secrets of naturesubatomic matter, the universe, time and space. While the present may be the key to the past, the past may also be giving us a warning about the future.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I thank John Veevers and Larry Frakes for constructive reviews, and Stephen Boyden, Barry Brooks, Jochen Brocks, Keith Crook, Frank Fenner, Miryam Glikson, Gerta Keller, Bradley Opdyke, Barrie Pittock, Michael Raupach and Will Steffen for discussions and comments. I thank Robert Berner. James Hansen, Gerta Keller, Stefan Rahmstorf, Dana Royer and James Zachos for permission to reproduce gures.

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Received 15 June 2007; accepted 15 August 2007