2009 September Oilwatch Monthly

Oilwatch Monthly - September 2009
16 September 2009 - (next update: 19 October 2009)
Your coverage on the latest worldwide oil market developments
ASPO Netherlands
Rembrandt Koppelaar +31 (0)6 44082419 Definitions
Crude Oil, petroleum found in liquid and semi liquid form including deepsea oil and lease condensates. Liquids, all forms of liquid fuels including conventional, heavy, and extra heavy oil, oil shale, oil sands, natural gas liquids, lease condensates, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, and biofuels. contact@peakoil.nl www.peakoil.nl
Oil market fundamentals and 2009 oil price movements This year we have so far seen two distinct price bands on the oil market. The first a price band between 40 and 50 dollars per barrel from January to April, which in May transitioned into the second price band between 60 and 72 dollars per barrel. Looking back, the latest data from the Joint Oil Data Initiative shows that this price shift coincided with a turnaround in declining demand in OECD countries. Every month from January to May OECD demand declined from a total of 45.31 million b/d in January to 42.19 million b/d in May. This changed when from May to June 2009 OECD consumption increased by 658,000 b/d to 42.85 million b/d. Oil production from May to June increased by only 190,000 b/d from 84.36 to 84.55 million b/d. Unfortunately the latest data point for oil demand is June, but more recent data for oil stocks, production and price movements are available. World oil production from June to July increased by 730,000 b/d and declined by 190,000 from July to August, to respectively production levels of 85.28 and 84.88 million b/d. OECD crude oil stocks declined from April to May from 1026 to 996 million barrels, to subsequently increase to 1011 million barrels in June and remain stable around that level in July. And prices went from 54.9 dollars per barrel in May to 67.7 in June, 64.6 in July, 71.4 dollars per barrel in August, and until 15 September averaged around 67 dollars per barrel. Summarizing oil prices have remained stable as well as OECD stocks, alongside a small increase in oil production since June. These movements would imply a continued increase in oil consumption in OECD countries, albeit probably a small increase given that the world increase in production from June to August has only been 330,000 b/d. Rembrandt Koppelaar President ASPO Netherlands
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Page 2 - 4: Page 5: Page 6: Page 7: Page 8 - 12: Page 13: Page 14 - 16: Page 17 - 19: Page 20: Page 21 - 23: Page 24: Page 25 - 27: Page 28: Page 29: Page 30 - 31: Page 32: Page 33: World Oil Production OPEC Oil Production Non-OPEC Oil Production OPEC Oil Consumption OECD Oil Consumption Asia Oil Consumption OECD Crude Oil Stocks Oil Imports & exports OPEC Spare Capacity Middle East Production Charts Europe Production Charts Africa Production Charts Asia Production Charts Former USSR Production Charts North America Production Charts South America Production Charts Oceania Production Charts
One Barrel of oil is equivalent to 159 litres
Chart 1: Oil Price Weighed Average of Blends
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Energy Information Admistration
Dollars per Barrel Euros per Barrel
ASPO Netherlands
World Oil Production
World liquid fuels production In August 2009 world production of all liquid fuels declined by 400,000 barrels per day from July according to the latest fgures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquid fuels production of 84.88 million b/d. Liquids production for July 2009 was revised upward in the IEA Oil Market Report of August from 85.15 to 85.28 million b/d. Average global liquid fuels production in 2009 up to August was 84.6 million b/d versus 86.6 and 85.32 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 2: Liquids Production January 2004 - August 2009
World crude oil production Latest figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 444,000 b/d from May to June 2009. Resulting in total production of crude oil including lease condensates of 71.78 million b/d. Crude oil production in the EIA International Petroleum Monthly for May 2009 was revised downward from 71.8 to 71.33 million b/d. The all time high production record of crude oil stands at 74.74 million b/d reached in July 2008. Chart 3: Crude Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009
World natural gas liquids production Natural Gas Liquids production from natural gas fields declined by 21,000 b/d from May to June 2009 according to the latest International Petroleum Monthly of the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Resulting in a total NGL production of 8.06 million b/d.
Chart 4: Liquids Production January 2004 - June 2009
90
76
8.2 8.0 7.8
88
75
Million barrels per day
74 86 73 84 72 82 71 6.8 80
Liquids (IEA) Liquids (EIA)
7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0
70
Crude Oil (EIA)
6.6 6.4
Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
78 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
69 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration
Source: Energy Information Administration
Page 2
ASPO Netherlands
World conventional crude versus liquids production ratio Approximately 85% of world liquid fuels production in 2008 came from conventional crude oil including lease condensates. The remaining share of 15% was produced by unconventional sources including Biofuels, Extra Heavy Oil, Tar Sands, Polar Oil and Natural Gas Liquids. In absolute amounts unconventional production has increased steadily, from 4 million b/d at the end of the 1970s, to approximately 12.9 mb/d in 2008, excluding lease condensates.
World unconventional liquid fuels production In 2008 the biggest part of unconventional liquid fuels production came from Natural Gas Liquids at 11% or 7.94 million b/d. Secondly, extra heavy crude and bitumen at 3.4% or 2.68 million b/d of which 1.27 million b/d from Canadian oil sands and 1.41 million b/d from other sources. Thirdly, Biofuels at 1.8% or 1.45 million b/d. A and finally Polar Oil at a production rate of 840,000 b/d in 2008 or 1.1% of total liquids supply.
World energy content from liquid fuels production In production statistics all liquid fuels are aggregated as total oil production while containing different amounts of energy per barrel produced. For example, a barrel of crude oil contains around 5.8 million British Thermal Units while a similar barrel of natural gas liquids contains 4.2 million BTU. Conversion to BTUs shows that actual available energy worldwide in June 2009 was 3.3% lower than liquids statistics counted in barrels would suggest.
Chart 5: World Crude and Liquids production 1938 - 2008
Chart 6: Unconventional Oil Production 1938 - 2008
Chart 7: World Production in BTU January 2003 - August 2009
100 90 80 70
Liquids Conventional crude
14
Biofuels X-Heavy crude (excl. Canada) Canadian Oil Sands Polar Oil Natural Gas Liquids
550
Biofuels
12
525 500
Natural Gas Liquids Crude Oil 12m rolling average
10
Trillion BTU per day

Source: EIA, EIA & CAPP
60 50 40 30 20
475 450 425 400 375 350 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: International Energy Agency
2 10 0 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

0 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008
Page 3
ASPO Netherlands
World biofuels production Total world biofuel in August 2009 is estimated to be 1.58 million b/d based on statistics compiled from the Energy Information Administration, the International Energy Agency and the Brazilian ministry of Energy. With an estimated 710,000 b/d from the United States, 510,000 b/d from Brazil and 360,000 b/d from other countries.
IEA liquid fuels versus liquids excluding biofuels production Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in August 2009 is estimated to be 83.33 million b/d, a decline of 400,000 b/d from July production according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency.
EIA liquids versus IEA liquids excluding biofuels production Liquid fuels production figures published by the Energy Information Administration in their International Petroleum Monthly exclude biofuels. These figures are comparable to total liquids statistics published by the International Energy Agency when subtracting our estimate for world biofuels production.
Chart 8: World Biofuels Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009
Chart 9: IEA Liquids comparison January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 10: EIA & EIA Liquids Comparison Jan. 2004 - August 2009
1.8 1.6 1.4
90
88 87
88 86 86 85 84 83
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 80 0.4 0.2 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Biofuels (IEA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids (IEA)
84
82
82 81 80 79 78 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Liquids (EIA)
78
76 2004
Source: IEA, EIA, Brazilian Ministry of Energy
Page 4
OPEC Oil Production
ASPO Netherlands
OPEC liquid fuels production Total liquid fuels production in OPEC countries increased by 50,000 b/d from July to August to a level of 34.16 million b/d. Average liquid fuels production in 2009 up to August was 33.59 million b/d, versus 36.09 and 35.02 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. All time high production of OPEC liquid fuels stands at 36.58 million b/d reached in July 2008.
OPEC crude oil production Total crude oil production excluding lease condensates of the OPEC cartel increased by 50,000 b/d to a level of 28.80 million b/d, from July to August 2009, according to the latest available estimate of the IEA. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to August was 28.58 million b/d, versus 31.43 and 30.37 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
OPEC natural gas liquids production OPEC natural gas liquids remained stable from July to August at a level of 5.36 million b/d. Average OPEC natural gas liquids production in 2009 up to August was 5.01 million b/d, versus 4.66 and 4.55 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 11: OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009
Chart 12: OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009
Chart 13: OPEC NGL Production January 2004 - August 2009
38 37 36
33 32 31 30
6.0
5.5
5.0
35 34 29 33 28 32 31
Liquids (IEA)
4.5
4.0
27
Crude Oil (IEA)
3.5
Natural Gas Liquids (IEA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
30 29 2004 2005 2006
Liquids (EIA)
26 25
Crude Oil (EIA)
3.0
2.5 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2007
2008
2009
2004
Page 5
ASPO Netherlands
Non-OPEC Oil Production
Non-OPEC liquid fuels production Total liquid fuels production excluding biofuels in Non-OPEC countries decreased by 450,000 b/d from July to August 2009. Resulting in a production level of 49.17 million b/d according to the International Energy Agency. Average liquid fuels production in 2009 up to August was 49.51 million b/d, versus 49.32 and 49.34 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Non-OPEC crude oil production Total Non-OPEC crude oil production excluding lease condensates increased by 162,000 b/d to a level of 41.24 million b/d, from May to June 2009, according to the latest available estimate of the EIA. Crude oil production in the EIA International Petroleum Monthly for May 2009 was revised downward from 41.5 to 41.08 million b/d. Average crude oil production in 2009 up to June was 41.51 million b/d, versus 41.32 and 41.80 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007. Chart 15: Non-OPEC Crude Oil Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009
Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production Non-OPEC natural gas liquids production decreased by 117,000 from May to June to a level of 3.30 million b/d. Average NonOPEC natural gas liquids production in 2009 up to August was 3.41 million b/d, versus 3.65 and 3.79 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 14: Non-OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009
Chart 16: Non-OPEC NGL Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009
51
43 43
4.5
50
4.0
49
42 42
48 41 47 41 46
Liquids (IEA)
3.5
3.0
40 2.5 40 39 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Crude oil (EIA) Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)
45
Liquids (EIA)
44 2004
2.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 6
OPEC Oil Consumption
ASPO Netherlands
OPEC oil consumption Oil consumption in all the OPEC oil producers combined increased by 235,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 6.25 million b/d. Average OPEC oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 5.74 million b/d, versus 5.76 and 5.30 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Iran oil consumption Oil consumption in Iran increased by 10,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 1.50 million b/d. Average Iranian oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 1.53 million b/d, versus 1.64 and 1.52 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Saudi Arabia oil consumption Oil consumption in Saudi Arabia increased by 193,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 2.2 million b/d. Average Saudi Arabian oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 1.70 million b/d, versus 1.65 and 1.52 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 17: OPEC Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 18: Iran Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 19: Saudi Arabia Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
7 6
2.4 2.2 2.0
2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6
Iran oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Venezuela Saudi Arabia Nigeria Kuwait Ecuador Algeria
Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 2009 0.4 0.2 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0.4 0.2 0.0 2004 2005
Saudi Arabia oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
Iraq UAE Qatar Libya Iran Angola 12m rolling average
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 7
ASPO Netherlands
OECD Oil Consumption
OECD oil consumption Oil consumption in OECD countries increased by 659,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 42.85 million b/d. Average OECD oil consumption in 2009 up to June was 43.87 million b/d, versus 46.10 and 47.68 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
North America oil consumption Oil consumption in North America increased by 274,000 b/d to a level of 22.39 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average oil consumption in North America in 2009 up to June was 22.44 million b/d, versus 23.50 and 24.72 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
European Union oil consumption Oil consumption in the European Union decreased by 122,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 12.96 million b/d. Average consumption in the European Union in 2009 up to June was 13.57 million b/d, versus 14.25 and 14.32 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 20: OECD Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 21: North America Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 22: EU-27 Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
52.0 51.0 50.0 49.0 48.0
26.6 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.6
15.6 15.2 14.8 14.4 14.0 13.6
47.0 46.0 45.0 44.0 43.0 42.0 41.0 40.0 39.0 38.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
OECD oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
23.0 22.4 21.8 21.2 20.6 20.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
North America oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
13.2 12.8 12.4 12.0 11.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
EU-27 oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
Page 8
ASPO Netherlands
United States oil consumption Oil consumption in the US increased by 166,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 18.26 million b/d. Average consumption of oil in the US in 2009 up to June was 18.61 million b/d, versus 19.50 and 20.70 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Mexico oil consumption Oil consumption in Mexico increased by 10,000 b/d to a level of 1.95 million b/d. Average oil consumption in Mexico in 2009 up to June was 1.87 million b/d, versus 1.95 and 1.94 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Canada oil consumption Oil consumption in Canada increased by 98,000 b/d from Mau tp June to a level of 2.02 million b/d. Average consumption in Canada in 2009 up to June was 1.96 million b/d, versus 2.06 and 2.08 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 23: US Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 24: Mexico Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 25: Canada Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
22
2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0
2.3
21
2.2
20
2.1
19 1.9 18 1.8 17
US oil consumption (JODI)
2.0
1.9
1.7
Mexico oil consumption (JODI)
1.8
Canada oil consumption (JODI)
16
12m rolling average
1.6 1.5
12m rolling average
1.7
12m rolling average
15 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1.6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2004
Page 9
ASPO Netherlands
France oil consumption Oil consumption in France remained stable from May to June at 1.68 million b/d. Average consumption of oil in France in 2009 up to June was 1.85 million b/d, versus 1.94 and 1.94 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Germany oil consumption Oil consumption in Germany decreased by 100,000 b/d to a level of 2.31 million b/d from May to June. Average oil consumption in Germany in 2009 up to June was 2.46 million b/d, versus 2.56 and 2.47 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Italy oil consumption Oil consumption in Italy increased by 58,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 1.54 million b/d. Average consumption in Italy in 2009 up to June was 1.51 million b/d, versus 1.60 and 1.67 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 26: France Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 27: Germany Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 28: Italy Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
2.3
3.0 2.9
2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3
Germany oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
2.2
2.8 2.7 2.6
2.1
2.0
2.5 2.4
1.9
2.3 2.2
1.8
France oil consumption (JODI)
2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1.7
1.2 1.1 1.0 2004 2005
Italy oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
12m rolling average
1.6 2004
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 10
ASPO Netherlands
Spain oil consumption Oil consumption in Spain increased by 81,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 1.46 million b/d. Average oil consumption in Spain in 2009 up to June was 1.48 million b/d, versus 1.54 and 1.59 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
United Kingdom oil consumption Oil consumption in the United Kingdom remained stable around 1.51 million b/d from May to June. Average oil consumption in the United Kingdom in 2009 up to June was 1.58 million b/d, versus 1.61 and 1.67 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Poland oil consumption Oil consumption in Poland increased by 18,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 530,000 b/d. Average consumption in Poland in 2009 up to June was 489,000 b/d, versus 527,000 and 507,000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 29: Spain Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 30: UK Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 31: Poland Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
1.8
2.2 2.1
0.8 0.7
1.7
2.0 1.9 0.6 0.5 1.7
1.6
1.8
1.5
1.6 1.5
0.4 0.3
1.4
1.4 1.3 0.2

UK oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average Poland oil consumption (JODI)
1.3
Spain oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
1.2 1.1 1.0
0.1 0.0
12m rolling average
1.2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 11
ASPO Netherlands
Netherlands oil consumption Oil consumption in the Netherlands decreased by 155,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 687,000 million b/d. Average oil consumption in the Netherlands in 2009 up to June was 868,000 b/d, versus 945,000 and 920,0000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Japan oil consumption Oil consumption in Japan increased by 301,000 b/d to a level of 4.18 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average oil consumption in Japan in 2009 up to June was 4.45 million b/d, versus 4.92 and 5.13 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
South Korea oil consumption Oil consumption in South Korea decreased by 37,000 b/d to a level of 2.15 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average consumption in South Korea in 2009 up to June was 2.29 million b/d, versus 2.21 and 2.29 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 32: Netherlands Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 33: Japan Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 34: South Korea Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
1.2
7.0 6.5
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8

Japan oil consumption (JODI) South Korea oil consumption (JODI)
1.1 6.0
1.0 5.5 0.9 5.0 4.5 0.8 4.0 0.7

Netherlands oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
3.5 3.0
12m rolling average
1.6 1.4
12m rolling average
0.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 12
Asia Oil Consumption
ASPO Netherlands
China oil consumption Oil consumption in China increased by 654,000 b/d from May to June to a level of 8.19 million b/d. Average oil consumption in China in 2009 up to June was 7.18 million b/d, versus 6.92 and 7.29 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
India oil consumption Oil consumption in India increased by 144,000 b/d to a level of 2.96 million b/d. Average oil consumption in India in 2009 up to June was 2.92 million b/d, versus 2.60 and 2.43 million b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Taiwan oil consumption Oil consumption in Taiwan increased by 90,000 b/d to a level of 1.05 million b/d from May to June 2009. Average consumption in Taiwan in 2009 up to June was 961,000 b/d, versus 978,000 and 958,000 b/d in respectively 2008 and 2007.
Chart 35: China Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 36: India Oil Consumption Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 37: Taiwan Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009
10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5
3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4
1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9
8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2.2 2.0 1.8

China oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
0.8 0.7
India oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
1.6 1.4 1.2 2004 2005
0.6 0.5 0.4
Taiwan oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 13
ASPO Netherlands
OECD Crude Oil Stocks
OECD crude oil stocks Industrial inventories of crude oil in the OECD in July 2009 increased to a level of 1012 million from 1011 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD crude oil stocks are 54 million barrels higher than the five year average of 958 million barrels. In the August Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 990 million barrels was tabulated for June which has been revised upwards to 1011 million barrels in the September edition. Chart 38: OECD Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
OECD product stocks Industrial product stocks in the OECD in July 2009 increased to 1470 million from 1459 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD product stocks are 72 million barrels higher than the five year average of 1398 million barrels. In the August Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 1467 million barrels was tabulated for June which has been revised downwards to 1459 million barrels in the September edition.
Europe crude oil stocks Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Europe in July 2009 decreased to 338 million from 343 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe crude oil stocks are 2 million barrels higher than the five year average of 336 million barrels.
Chart 39: OECD Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
Chart 40: Europe Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
1200
1600
425 400
1100
1500 375
1000
1400
350 325
900
1300 300
800
1200
275 250
700
OECD crude oil stocks (IEA)
1100
OECD product stocks (IEA)
225 200
Europe crude oil stocks (IEA)
600 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 14
ASPO Netherlands
Europe product stocks Industrial product stocks in OECD Europe in July 2009 remained stable at 571 million barrels from June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Europe product stocks are 21 million barrels higher than the five year average of 550 million barrels.
Pacific crude oil stocks Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to a level of 178 million from 170 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD Pacific crude oil stocks are 8 million barrels lower than the five year average of 170 million barrels.
Pacific product stocks Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to 170 million from 165 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are 11 million barrels lower than the five year average of 181 million barrels.
Chart 41: Europe Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
Chart 42: Pacific Crude Oil Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
Chart 43: Pacific Product Stocks January 2004 - July 2009
650 625 600
250 225
250
225 200
575 550 525 500 475 100 450 425 400 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
200 175 150 125 150 175
Europe product stocks (IEA)
75 50
Pacific crude oil stocks (IEA)
125
Pacific product stocks (IEA)
100 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: International Energy Agency Source: International Energy Agency
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Page 15
ASPO Netherlands
North America crude oil stocks Industrial inventories of crude oil in OECD North America in July 2009 decreased to a level of 497 million from 499 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA statistics. Current OECD North America crude oil stocks are 44 million barrels lower than the five year average of 453 million barrels. In the August Oil Market Report of the IEA a total stock level of 487 million barrels was tabulated for June which has been revised upwards to 499 million barrels in the September edition. Chart 44: North America Crude Oil Stocks Jan. 2004 - May 2009
North America product stocks Industrial product stocks in OECD Pacific in July 2009 increased to 730 million from 723 million barrels in June according to the latest IEA Statistics. Current OECD Pacific product stocks are 32 million barrels higher than the five year average of 693 million barrels.
US gasoline stocks Gasoline stocks in the United States in August 2009 decreased to 209 million from 214 million barrels in July according to the latest EIA Statistics. Current Gasoline stocks are 1 million barrels lower than the five year average of 208 million barrels.
Chart 45: North America Product Stocks Jan. 2004 - June 2009
Chart 46: United States Gasoline Stocks Jan. 2004 - July 2009
600 575 550 525 500
800
300 275 250 225
750
700
475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
650 200 600 175 550 150

North America product stocks (IEA)
North America crude oil stocks (IEA)
500
125 100
US gasoline stocks (EIA)
450 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 16
Oil Imports & Exports
ASPO Netherlands
Mexico oil exports Oil exports from Mexico decreased by 172,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.40 million b/d. Average oil export from Mexico in 2008 was 1.55 million b/d, versus 1.85 and 2.04 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
United Kingdom oil exports Oil exports from the United Kingdom decreased by 73,000 b/d 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 876,000 b/d. Average oil export from the United Kingdom in 2008 was 957,000 b/d, versus 1.02 and 1.00 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006. Since 2004 the United Kingdom became a net importer of oil. Net imports were 186,000 b/d in 1st qrt. 2009.
Norway oil exports Oil exports from Norway increased by 37,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 1.91 million b/d. Average oil export from Norway in 2008 was 1.67 million b/d, versus 1.97 and 2.17 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Chart 47: Mexico oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
Chart 48: UK oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
Chart 49: Norway oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
4.0 3.5 3.0
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids imports (IEA) 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Liquids exports (IEA) 0.5 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA)
Liquids Production (IEA)
Page 17
ASPO Netherlands
Denmark oil exports Oil exports from Denmark decreased by 17,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 167,000 b/d. Average oil export from Denmark in 2008 was 184,000 b/d, versus 191,000 and 233,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Australia oil exports Oil exports from Australia decreased by 47,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 260,000 b/d. Average oil export from Australia in 2008 was 270,000 b/d, versus 252,000 b/d and 217,000 b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Japan oil imports Oil imports in Japan decreased by 64,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 3.87 million b/d. Average oil import in Japan in 2008 was 4.12 million b/d, versus 4.09 and 4.15 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Chart 50: Denmark oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
Chart 51: Australia oil exports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
Chart 52: Japan Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids imports (IEA)
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Liquids exports (IEA) Liquids Production (IEA) Liquids imports (IEA)
5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2
0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0.5 4.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Liquids (IEA)
Page 18
ASPO Netherlands
OECD oil imports Oil imports in the group of OECD countries decreased by 1.60 million b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 30.43 million b/d. Average oil import in OECD countries in 2008 was 32.19 million b/d, versus 32.47 and 32.7 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
United States oil imports Oil imports in the United States decreased by 661,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 10.84 million b/d. Average oil import in the United States in 2008 was 11.43 million b/d, versus 11.55 and 11.77 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
OECD Europe oil imports Oil imports from OECD Europe decreased by 854,000 b/d from 4th qrt. 2008 to 1st qrt. 2009 to a level of 11.98 million b/d. Average oil import in OECD Europe in 2008 was 12.98 million b/d, versus 13.05 and 13.18 million b/d in respectively 2007 and 2006.
Chart 53: OECD Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
Chart 54: US Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
Chart 55: OECD Europe Oil Imports 1st qrt. 2002 - 1st qrt. 2009
34.0 33.5 33.0
13.0 12.5
14.0
13.5 12.0
32.5 32.0 31.5 31.0 30.5 10.0 30.0 Liquids (IEA) 29.5 29.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
13.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 12.0 12.5
9.5 9.0
Liquids (IEA)
11.5
Liquids (IEA)
11.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Page 19
ASPO Netherlands
OPEC Spare Capacity
IEA OPEC spare capacity According to the International Energy Agency total effective spare capacity (excluding Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria) in August 2009 remained stable at 5.30 million from July. Of total August spare capacity according to the IEA Saudi Arabia can produce an additional 3.4 million b/d within 90 days, the United Arab Emirates 0.58 million b/d, Angola 0.31 million b/d, Iran 0.20 million b/d, Libya 0.22 million b/d, Qatar 0.13 million b/d, and the other remaining countries 0.46 million b/d. Chart 56: IEA OPEC Spare Capacity January 2003 - August 2009
EIA OPEC spare capacity Total OPEC spare production capacity in August 2009 declined by 690,000 b/d to a level of 3.51 million b/d from 4.2 million b/d in July according to the Energy Information Administration. Of total August spare capacity 2.60 million b/d is estimated to come from Saudi Arabia by the EIA, 0.22 million b/d from Qatar, 0.19 million b/d from Angola, 0.20 million b/d from Kuwait, 0.30 million b/d from the United Arab Emirates, 0.10 million b/d from Iran, and no spare capacity from other countries. Chart 57: EIA OPEC Spare Capacity January 2003 - August 2009
Saudi Arabia spare capacity Spare capacity in Saudi Arabia increased to 2.60 million b/d in August from a level of 2.50 million b/d in July according to the Energy Information Administration. Statistics from the International Energy Agency show an increase in Saudi spare capacity to 3.40 million from 3.30 million b/d from July to August.
Chart 58: Saudi Arabia Spare Capacity Jan. 2003 - August 2009
8 7 6
Venezuela Saudi Arabia Nigeria Kuwait Iran Angola
UAE Qatar Libya Iraq Ecuador Algeria
5 4.5 4 3.5
Venezuela Saudi Arabia Nigeria Kuwait Iran Angola UAE Qatar Libya Iraq Ecuador Algeria
5.0
Saudi spare capacity (IEA)
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Saudi spare capacity (EIA)
5 4 3 2
3 2.5 2 1.5 1
1 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 20
Middle East Oil Production
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 59: Kuwait Liquids Production 1945 - 2008
Chart 60: Iran Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
Chart 61: Qatar Liquids Production 1945 - 2008
5.0
7.0
Liquids
1.4
Liquids
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1945 1957
6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Liquids
1969
1981
1993
2005
1930
1945
1960
1975
1990
2005
1945
1957
1969
1981
1993
2005
Source: ASPO Ireland & BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Chart 62: Kuwait Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 63: Iran Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 64: Qatar Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
3.4
3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 2004 2005
Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (EIA) Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA)
5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4
2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 21
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 65: Saudi Arabia Liquids Production 1935 - 2008
Chart 66: UAE Liquids Production 1960 - 2008
Chart 67: Iraq Liquids Production1930 - 2008
12.0
3.5
Liquids
4.0
Liquids
10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1930
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Liquids
1945
1960
1975
1990
2005
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1930 1942 1954 1966 1978 1990 2002

Chart 68: Saudi Arabia Oil Production January 2004 - Aug. 2009
Chart 69: UAE Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 70: Iraq Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
14.0
13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 2004 2005
4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 22
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 71: Oman Liquids Production 1965 - 2008
Chart 72: Yemen Liquids Production 1985 - 2008
Chart 73: Syria Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
1.2
0.50
Liquids
0.7
Liquids
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1965
0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Liquids
1975
1985
1995
2005
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
Chart 74: Oman Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 75: Yemen Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 76: Syria Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
1.00
0.60
Liquids (IEA) Crude Oil (EIA)
0.70
0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60
0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25
0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 23
ASPO Netherlands
Europe Oil Production
Chart 77: Denmark Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
Chart 78: Norway Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
Chart 79: UK Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
0.45
4.0
Liquids
3.5
Liquids
0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Liquids
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Chart 80: Denmark oil production January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 81: Norway oil production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 82: UK oil production January 2004 - August 2009
0.60
0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Liquids excluding biofuels (IEA) Crude Oil (EIA)
4.40 4.00 3.60 3.20 2.80 2.40 2.00 1.60 1.20 0.80 0.40 0.00
3.20 2.80 2.40 2.00 1.60 1.20

Liquids (IEA) Crude Oil (EIA) Liquids (IEA) Crude Oil (EIA)
0.80 0.40 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 24
Africa Oil Production
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 83: Algeria Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
Chart 84: Angola Liquids Production 1960 - 2008
Chart 85: Libya Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
2.5
2.0
Liquids
4.0
Liquids
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Liquids
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Chart 86: Algeria Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 87: Angola Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 88: Libya Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 2004 2005
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 2004 2005
2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4
2006
2007
2008
2009
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 25
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 89: Nigeria Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
Chart 90: Egypt Liquids Production 1940 - 2008
Chart 91: Gabon Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
3.0
1.0
Liquids
0.40
Liquids
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1955 1965
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 1955 1965
Liquids
1975
1985
1995
2005
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1975
1985
1995
2005
Chart 92: Nigeria Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 93: Egypt Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 94: Gabon Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
3.4 3.2
3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 2004 2005
0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50

0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 26
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 95: Eq. Guinea Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 96: Sudan Liquids Production January 2002 - June 2009
Chart 97: Vietnam Liquids Production 1985 - 2008
0.44
0.66
Crude Oil (EIA)
0.45
Crude Oil (EIA)
0.42 0.40 0.38 0.36 0.34 0.32 0.30 2004 2005
0.60 0.54 0.48 0.42 0.36 0.30
0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00
Liquids
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Chart 98: Other Africa Oil Production Jan. 2002 - June 2009
Chart 99: Other Asia liquids Production Jan. 2002 - June 2009
Chart 100: Vietnam Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009
1.40
1.30
Liquids (IEA + EIA)
0.60
Liquids (IEA + EIA)
1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 2004 2005
1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50
0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Page 27
ASPO Netherlands
Asia Oil Production
Chart 101: China Liquids Production 1950 - 2008
Chart 102: India Liquids Production 1960 - 2008
Chart 103: Malaysia Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
4.0
0.9
Liquids
0.9
Liquids
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1970
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Liquids
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1980
1990
2000
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Chart 104: China Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 105: India Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 106: Malaysia Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
4.40
1.05
1.20
4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20
1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55
1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 28
Former USSR Oil Production
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 107: Azerbaijan Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
Chart 108: Kazakhstan Liquids Production 1945 - 2008
Chart 109: Russia Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
1.0
1.8
Liquids
16.0
Liquids
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1955 1965
Liquids
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

1975
1985
1995
2005
Chart 110: Azerbaijan Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 111: Kazakhstan Oil Production January 2004 - June 2009
Chart 112: Russia Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
1.60
2.00
11.50
1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2004
1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80
11.00 10.50 10.00 9.50 9.00 8.50 8.00
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 29
ASPO Netherlands
North America Oil Production
Chart 113: US Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
Chart 114: Canada Liquids Production 1945 - 2008
Chart 115: Mexico Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
14.0
3.5 Liquids 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005 1945 1960 1975 1990 2005
4.5
Liquids
12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1930
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1930 1945
Liquids
1960
1975
1990
2005
Chart 116: US Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 117: Canada Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 118: Mexico Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
11.0
10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0
4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00
4.60 4.40 4.20 4.00 3.80 3.60 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 30
South America Oil Production
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 119: Argentina Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
Chart 120: Brazil Liquids Production 1955 - 2008
Chart 121: Colombia Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
1.0
2.0
Liquids
0.9
Liquids
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1955 1965
0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Liquids
1930 1942 1954 1966 1978 1990 2002

1975
1985
1995
2005
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Chart 122: Argentina Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 123: Brazil Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 124: Colombia Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
1.00 0.95
3.00
0.80
2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20
0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50
0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 31
ASPO Netherlands
South America Oil Production
Chart 125: Ecuador Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
Chart 126: Venezuela Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
0.6
5.0
Liquids
0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Liquids
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Chart 127: Ecuador Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 128: Venezuela Oil Production January 2004 - Aug. 2009
Chart 129 Other S. America oil production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009
0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.50 0.48 0.46 0.44
Crude Oil (IEA) Crude Oil (EIA)
4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 2004 2005
0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30

Liquids (IEA + EIA)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2006
2007
2008
2009
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 32
Oceania Oil Production
ASPO Netherlands
Chart 130: Australia Liquids Production 1970 - 2008
Chart 131: Indonesia Liquids Production 1930 - 2008
1.0
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1965 1975
Liquids
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Liquids
1985
1995
2005
1930
1945
1960
1975
1990
2005
Chart 132: Australia Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
Chart 133: Indonesia Oil Production January 2004 - August 2009
0.80 0.75
1.30
1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85
0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Page 33

2009 September Oilwatch Monthly

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Oilwatch Monthly - September 2009

16 September 2009 - (next update: 19 October 2009)

Your coverage on the latest worldwide oil market developments

One Barrel of oil is equivalent to 159 litres

Chart 1: Oil Price Weighed Average of Blends

Dollars per Barrel Euros per Barrel

World Oil Production

Chart 4: Liquids Production January 2004 - June 2009

8.2 8.0 7.8

Million barrels per day

7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0

Crude Oil (EIA)

Natural Gas Liquids (EIA)

78 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

69 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

World Oil Production

Chart 5: World Crude and Liquids production 1938 - 2008

Chart 6: Unconventional Oil Production 1938 - 2008

Chart 7: World Production in BTU January 2003 - August 2009

Natural Gas Liquids Crude Oil 12m rolling average

Million barrels per day

Trillion BTU per day

2 10 0 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

0 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008

World Oil Production

Chart 8: World Biofuels Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009

Chart 9: IEA Liquids comparison January 2004 - August 2009

1.8 1.6 1.4

Million barrels per day

Source: IEA, EIA, Brazilian Ministry of Energy

Source: Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

OPEC Oil Production

Chart 11: OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009

Chart 13: OPEC NGL Production January 2004 - August 2009

Million barrels per day

30 29 2004 2005 2006

Crude Oil (EIA)

Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

Non-OPEC Oil Production

Chart 14: Non-OPEC Liquids Production Jan. 2004 - Aug. 2009

Chart 16: Non-OPEC NGL Production Jan. 2004 - August 2009

Million barrels per day

2.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: International Energy Agency & Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

Source: Energy Information Administration

OPEC Oil Consumption

Chart 17: OPEC Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009

Chart 18: Iran Oil Consumption January 2004 - June 2009

2.4 2.2 2.0

Million barrels per day

5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0.4 0.2 0.0 2004 2005

Saudi Arabia oil consumption (JODI) 12m rolling average

Iraq UAE Qatar Libya Iran Angola 12m rolling average

Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative

Source: Joint Oil Data Initiative