GRAFICAS

0.54 0.89 0.83 0.
91
X2=CC X3=PREC X4=PREH X5=PREP Y=PROC Y ✓ Producción de carne de res en
1990 18.30 1.28 1.20 1.09 746.10 X2 ✓ Consumo de carne de res kg p
1991 19.00 1.33 1.26 1.06 721.60 X3 ✓ Precio de carne de res dólar po
1992 16.10 1.23 1.50 1.06 759.40 X4 ✓ Precio del huevo miles pesos x
1993 16.20 1.31 1.59 1.21 744.20 X5 ✓ Precio del pollo dólar por kilo (
1994 17.00 1.17 1.83 1.22 688.10
1995
1996
18.20
18.60
0.95
0.89
2.28
2.55
1.22
1.38
702.30
716.40
𝑦=𝛽_1+𝛽_2 𝑋2+𝛽
1997 19.20 0.93 2.94 1.34 725.80 𝑋5
1998 18.70 0.86 3.15 1.39 711.70 𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑋2+
1999 17.40 0.92 3.60 1.32 706.90 (𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
2000 17.70 0.97 4.29 1.31 745.00
2001 16.30 1.06 4.32 1.40 771.30
2002 15.20 1.05 5.10 1.39 733.20
2003 14.80 0.99 5.61 1.46 680.20
2004 16.40 1.26 5.34 1.67 808.30
2005 17.20 1.31 5.40 1.63 809.10
2006 18.80 1.27 5.70 1.53 840.50
2007 17.80 1.30 6.21 1.72 859.10
2008 17.40 1.57 6.57 1.87 924.30
2009 17.60 1.32 7.14 1.89 899.10
2010 18.90 1.68 6.87 1.89 864.30
2011 20.10 2.02 6.81 1.93 929.60
2012 20.70 2.07 7.11 2.08 973.60
2013 19.70 2.04 6.27 2.17 955.40
2014 19.30 2.47 6.54 2.32 941.80
2015 19.10 2.28 7.50 1.99 942.70
2016 18.60 2.03 8.67 1.85 911.30
2017 18.10 2.19 9.00 2.12 910.00
2018 18.20 2.10 9.00 2.24 935.20
2019 18.60 2.38 9.33 2.00 924.10
✓ Producción de carne de res en Colombia miles de toneladas al año (PROC) variable dependiente
✓ Consumo de carne de res kg per cápita al año (CC) Variables explicativas
✓ Precio de carne de res dólar por libra (PREC) Variables explicativas
✓ Precio del huevo miles pesos x cubeta 30 unidad (PREH) Variables explicativas
✓ Precio del pollo dólar por kilo (PREP) Variables explicativas
=𝛽_1+𝛽_2 𝑋2+𝛽_3 𝑋3+𝛽_4 𝑋4+𝛽_5

5
_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+
) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
0.54 0.89 0.83 0.91
CC PREC PREH PREP PROC PROC ESTIMADO
1990 18.30 1.28 1.20 1.09 746.10 725.84
1991 19.00 1.33 1.26 1.06 721.60 733.06
1992 16.10 1.23 1.50 1.06 759.40 702.45
1993 16.20 1.31 1.59 1.21 744.20 724.92
1994 17.00 1.17 1.83 1.22 688.10 725.13
1995 18.20 0.95 2.28 1.22 702.30 724.31
1996 18.60 0.89 2.55 1.38 716.40 741.60
1997 19.20 0.93 2.94 1.34 725.80 748.49
1998 18.70 0.86 3.15 1.39 711.70 746.02
1999 17.40 0.92 3.60 1.32 706.90 734.21
2000 17.70 0.97 4.29 1.31 745.00 743.23
2001 16.30 1.06 4.32 1.40 771.30 747.91
2002 15.20 1.05 5.10 1.39 733.20 741.22
2003 14.80 0.99 5.61 1.46 680.20 743.95
2004 16.40 1.26 5.34 1.67 808.30 796.68
2005 17.20 1.31 5.40 1.63 809.10 803.43
2006 18.80 1.27 5.70 1.53 840.50 805.97
2007 17.80 1.30 6.21 1.72 859.10 823.17
2008 17.40 1.57 6.57 1.87 924.30 855.57
2009 17.60 1.32 7.14 1.89 899.10 846.05
2010 18.90 1.68 6.87 1.89 864.30 880.69
2011 20.10 2.02 6.81 1.93 929.60 917.97
2012 20.70 2.07 7.11 2.08 973.60 944.76
2013 19.70 2.04 6.27 2.17 955.40 938.35
2014 19.30 2.47 6.54 2.32 941.80 982.11
2015 19.10 2.28 7.50 1.99 942.70 938.33
2016 18.60 2.03 8.67 1.85 911.30 909.70
2017 18.10 2.19 9.00 2.12 910.00 947.51
2018 18.20 2.10 9.00 2.24 935.20 954.36
2019 18.60 2.38 9.33 2.00 924.10 953.60
1.PROC-PREP
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
2.PROC-PREH
1,200.00
2.PROC-PREH
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
- 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
3.PROC-PREC
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60
4.PROC-CC
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
ERROR PROC-PROC EST
20.26
𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+
- 11.46
56.95 B1 356.16
19.28 B2 8.72
- 37.03 B3 68.47
- 22.01 B4 6.48
- 25.20 B5 105.96
- 22.69 MCO
- 34.32 SRC 29770.28
- 27.31
1.77
23.39
- 8.02
- 63.75
11.62
5.67
34.53
35.93
68.73
53.05
- 16.39
11.63
28.84
17.05
- 40.31
4.37
1.60
- 37.51
- 19.16
- 29.50
Resumen
Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.945480858338145
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.893934053483835
R^2 ajustado 0.876963502041249
Error típico 34.5081333666295
Observaciones 30
ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 4 250906.812955439
Residuos 25 29770.28
Total 29 280677.094666667
Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 356.18 89.9686829060182
CC 8.71 5.82574918683806
PREC 68.47 24.2678412467349
PREH 6.48 6.38708532346529
PREP 105.96 50.8105181244952
Análisis de los residuales
Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

1 725.84 20.26
2 733.06 -11.46
3 702.45 56.95
4 724.92 19.28
5 725.13 -37.03
6 724.31 -22.01
7 741.60 -25.20
8 748.49 -22.69
9 746.02 -34.32
10 734.21 -27.31
11 743.23 1.77
12 747.91 23.39
13 741.23 -8.03
14 743.95 -63.75
15 796.68 11.62
16 803.43 5.67
17 805.97 34.53
18 823.17 35.93
19 855.57 68.73
20 846.05 53.05
21 880.69 -16.39
22 917.97 11.63
23 944.75 28.85
24 938.35 17.05
25 982.11 -40.31
26 938.33 4.37
27 909.70 1.60
28 947.51 -37.51
29 954.36 -19.16
30 953.60 -29.50
) ̂𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
Minimizar
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F

62726.7032388599 52.675604355 8.0378373329E-12
1190.81126844909
Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0%

3.95894921161891 0.00 170.89 541.48 202.502271753
1.49583304639939 0.15 -3.28 20.71 -1.2368514972
2.82135813539745 0.01 18.49 118.45 27.0153825089
1.01502240397093 0.32 -6.67 19.64 -4.4270060872
2.08539070124709 0.05 1.31 210.61 19.1682649136
Superior 90.0%
509.8606207691
18.66554780458
109.9211601511
17.393075486
192.7512991311
0.54 0.89 0.91
CC PREC PREP PROC PROC ESTIMADO
1990 18.30 1.28 1.09 746.10 728.59
1991 19.00 1.33 1.06 721.60 732.76
1992 16.10 1.23 1.06 759.40 706.95
1993 16.20 1.31 1.21 744.20 734.64
1994 17.00 1.17 1.22 688.10 731.94
1995 18.20 0.95 1.22 702.30 725.47
1996 18.60 0.89 1.38 716.40 746.32
1997 19.20 0.93 1.34 725.80 748.10
1998 18.70 0.86 1.39 711.70 747.23
1999 17.40 0.92 1.32 706.90 732.57
2000 17.70 0.97 1.31 745.00 736.10
2001 16.30 1.06 1.40 771.30 747.57
2002 15.20 1.05 1.39 733.20 737.72
2003 14.80 0.99 1.46 680.20 740.70
2004 16.40 1.26 1.67 808.30 800.55
2005 17.20 1.31 1.63 809.10 803.58
2006 18.80 1.27 1.53 840.50 796.45
2007 17.80 1.30 1.72 859.10 820.51
2008 17.40 1.57 1.87 924.30 857.59
2009 17.60 1.32 1.89 899.10 844.51
2010 18.90 1.68 1.89 864.30 878.67
2011 20.10 2.02 1.93 929.60 915.47
2012 20.70 2.07 2.08 973.60 945.23
2013 19.70 2.04 2.17 955.40 950.33
2014 19.30 2.47 2.32 941.80 999.67
2015 19.10 2.28 1.99 942.70 936.44
2016 18.60 2.03 1.85 911.30 895.38
2017 18.10 2.19 2.12 910.00 943.43
2018 18.20 2.10 2.24 935.20 954.78
2019 18.60 2.38 2.00 924.10 941.35
1.PROC-PREP
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
2.PROC-PREH
1,200.00
2.PROC-PREH
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
3.PROC-PREC
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60
4.PROC-CC
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
ERROR PROC-PROC EST
17.51
𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+
- 11.16
52.45 B1 361.25
9.56 B2 6.52
- 43.84 B3 69.54
- 23.17 B5 146.72
- 29.92
- 22.30 MCO
- 35.53 SRC 30997.14 Minimizar
- 25.67
8.90
23.73
- 4.52
- 60.50
7.75
5.52
44.05
38.59
66.71
54.59
- 14.37
14.13
28.37
5.07
- 57.87
6.26
15.92
- 33.43
- 19.58
- 17.25
Resumen
Coeficiente de correl 0.943166469365982
Coeficiente de deter 0.889562988936292
R^2 ajustado 0.87682025689048
Error típico 34.5282155573982
Observaciones 30
Regresión 3 249679.955257635
Total 29 280677.094666667

Intercepción 361.292 89.8799717523583
CC 6.517 5.41178324228325
PREC 69.542 24.2588802705831
PREP 146.717 31.1522220000343

1 728.590973065144 17.5090269348559
2 732.755185800065 -11.1551858000648
3 706.949421120842 52.450578879158
4 734.647714724407 9.55228527559314
5 731.936862001196 -43.836862001196
6 725.468756650653 -23.1687566506532
7 746.31281585255 -29.9128158525498
8 748.097930539886 -22.2979305398862
9 747.230265513888 -35.5302655138883
10 732.573403734508 -25.673403734508
11 736.103828601355 8.89617139864492
12 747.569758036477 23.7302419635225
13 737.726670832123 -4.52667083212327
14 740.705847576625 -60.505847576625
15 800.552745670033 7.74725432996706
16 803.577671831391 5.52232816860862
17 796.445610924994 44.0543890750057
18 820.508755335693 38.5912446643074
19 857.591866727204 66.7081332727955
20 844.508427352781 54.5915726472191
21 878.668840514674 -14.368840514674
22 915.465259842938 14.1347401570623
23 945.220672492593 28.3793275074074
24 950.330008759529 5.06999124047081
25 999.666381342114 -57.8663813421135
26 936.443460860738 6.25653913926192
27 895.381212551245 15.918787448755
28 943.432716049703 -33.432716049703
29 954.781536331889 -19.5815363318886
30 941.35539936276 -17.2553993627604
953.60 -29.50
) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢

83226.651753 69.809440058706 1.4409E-12
1192.1976696
Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0% Superior 90.0%
4.0197147965 0.0004440700388 176.541 546.043 207.9909619098 514.592743
1.2042441975 0.2393439854378 -4.607 17.641 -2.71332590816 15.747543
2.8666651952 0.0081145375743 19.677 119.407 28.16570684276 110.918469
4.7096930753 7.2324468515E-05 82.683 210.752 93.58361615046 199.851192
0.89 0.91
PREC PREP PROC PROC ESTIMADO
1990 1.28 1.09 746.10 723.97
1991 1.33 1.06 721.60 724.00
1992 1.23 1.06 759.40 716.22
1993 1.31 1.21 744.20 744.17
1994 1.17 1.22 688.10 735.09
1995 0.95 1.22 702.30 719.03
1996 0.89 1.38 716.40 737.00
1997 0.93 1.34 725.80 735.12
1998 0.86 1.39 711.70 737.04
1999 0.92 1.32 706.90 731.24
2000 0.97 1.31 745.00 733.16
2001 1.06 1.40 771.30 754.72
2002 1.05 1.39 733.20 751.93
2003 0.99 1.46 680.20 757.10
2004 1.26 1.67 808.30 809.06
2005 1.31 1.63 809.10 807.25
2006 1.27 1.53 840.50 789.23
2007 1.30 1.72 859.10 820.35
2008 1.57 1.87 924.30 862.49
2009 1.32 1.89 899.10 846.05
2010 1.68 1.89 864.30 874.72
2011 2.02 1.93 929.60 906.62
2012 2.07 2.08 973.60 933.13
2013 2.04 2.17 955.40 944.61
2014 2.47 2.32 941.80 1,000.42
2015 2.28 1.99 942.70 936.38
2016 2.03 1.85 911.30 896.28
2017 2.19 2.12 910.00 949.36
2018 2.10 2.24 935.20 959.45
2019 2.38 2.00 924.10 945.41
1.PROC-PREP
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
2.PROC-PREH
1,200.00
2.PROC-PREH
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
- 00 .0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
5. 10 15 20 25 30 35
3.PROC-PREC
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
4.PROC-CC
1,200.00
1,000.00
800.00
600.00
400.00
200.00
-
- 00 .0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
.0
0
5. 10 15 20 25 30 35
ERROR PROC-PROC EST
22.13
𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
- 2.40
43.18 B1 463.64
0.03 B3 77.87
- 46.99 B5 148.26
- 16.73
- 20.60 MCO
- 9.32 SRC 32726.07
- 25.34 Minimizar
- 24.34
11.84
16.58
- 18.73
- 76.90
- 0.76
1.85
51.27
38.75
61.81
53.05
- 10.42
22.98
40.47
10.79
- 58.62
6.32
15.02
- 39.36
- 24.25
- 21.31
Resumen
R^2 ajustado 0.874766330082546
Error típico 34.8148911000171
Observaciones 30
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadradosPromedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 2 247951.025324403 123975.512662202
Residuos 27 32726.07 1212.07664230605
Total 29 280677.094666667
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción 463.64 29.4859386732953 15.724111821703
PREC 77.87 23.4458183771157 3.32119572383818
PREP 148.26 31.3842352871912 4.72408906780412

1 723.97 22.13
2 724.00 -2.40
3 716.22 43.18
4 744.17 0.03
5 735.09 -46.99
6 719.03 -16.73
7 737.00 -20.60
8 735.13 -9.33
9 737.04 -25.34
10 731.24 -24.34
11 733.16 11.84
12 754.72 16.58
13 751.93 -18.73
14 757.10 -76.90
15 809.06 -0.76
16 807.25 1.85
17 789.23 51.27
18 820.35 38.75
19 862.49 61.81
20 846.05 53.05
21 874.72 -10.42
22 906.62 22.98
23 933.13 40.47
24 944.61 10.79
25 1000.42 -58.62
26 936.38 6.32
27 896.28 15.02
28 949.36 -39.36
29 959.45 -24.25
30 945.41 -21.31
) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
F Valor crítico de F
102.28355892 2.513464738E-13
Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0% Superior 90.0%

4.0889E-15 403.14 524.14 413.417138213 513.8632555203
2.5786E-03 29.76 125.97 37.9331601937 117.8031432782
6.3936E-05 83.87 212.66 94.8055174791 201.7183281641
0.53 0.90 0.76 0.89
1990 2.91 0.24 0.18 0.08 6.61 6.592
1991 2.94 0.29 0.23 0.06 6.58 6.604
1992 2.78 0.20 0.41 0.06 6.63 6.565
1993 2.79 0.27 0.46 0.19 6.61 6.599
1994 2.83 0.15 0.60 0.20 6.53 6.593
1995 2.90 - 0.05 0.82 0.20 6.55 6.576
1996 2.92 - 0.11 0.94 0.32 6.57 6.589
1997 2.95 - 0.07 1.08 0.30 6.59 6.603
1998 2.93 - 0.15 1.15 0.33 6.57 6.592
1999 2.86 - 0.08 1.28 0.28 6.56 6.588
2000 2.87 - 0.04 1.46 0.27 6.61 6.604
2001 2.79 0.06 1.46 0.34 6.65 6.617
2002 2.72 0.05 1.63 0.33 6.60 6.606
2003 2.69 - 0.01 1.72 0.38 6.52 6.600
2004 2.80 0.23 1.68 0.51 6.69 6.680
2005 2.84 0.27 1.69 0.49 6.70 6.693
2006 2.93 0.24 1.74 0.42 6.73 6.697
2007 2.88 0.26 1.83 0.54 6.76 6.711
2008 2.86 0.45 1.88 0.62 6.83 6.755
2009 2.87 0.28 1.97 0.63 6.80 6.729
2010 2.94 0.52 1.93 0.64 6.76 6.785
2011 3.00 0.70 1.92 0.66 6.83 6.833
2012 3.03 0.73 1.96 0.73 6.88 6.855
2013 2.98 0.71 1.84 0.78 6.86 6.846
2014 2.96 0.91 1.88 0.84 6.85 6.889
2015 2.95 0.82 2.01 0.69 6.85 6.854
2016 2.92 0.71 2.16 0.62 6.81 6.822
2017 2.90 0.79 2.20 0.75 6.81 6.852
2018 2.90 0.74 2.20 0.81 6.84 6.853
2019 2.92 0.87 2.23 0.69 6.83 6.864
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
(0.40) (0.20) - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
ERROR PROC-PROC EST 𝑙𝑛𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4
0.023
- 0.023
0.067 B1 6.002
0.013 B2 0.182
- 0.059 B3 0.182
- 0.022 B4 0.032
- 0.014 B5 0.147
- 0.016 MCO
- 0.027
0.010
0.031
- 0.009
- 0.078
0.014
0.002
0.037
0.045
0.074
0.072
- 0.023
0.002
0.026
0.016
- 0.041
- 0.005
- 0.007
- 0.039
- 0.012
- 0.036
Resumen
R^2 ajustado 0.891797346465766
Error típico 0.03952258089183
Observaciones 30
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 4 0.379598739890917 0.0948996849727293
Residuos 25 0.039 0.0015620344003515
Total 29 0.418649599899705

Intercepción 6.001 0.333497792096338 17.9951424706655
CC 0.182 0.115922196778919 1.56797066598264
PREC 0.183 0.0401288109364876 4.54889256910416
PREH 0.032 0.0345498807916239 0.927544550683333
PREP 0.147 0.117170953717233 1.25396080970143

1 6.592 0.023
2 6.604 -0.023
3 6.565 0.067
4 6.599 0.013
5 6.593 -0.059
6 6.576 -0.022
7 6.589 -0.014
8 6.603 -0.016
9 6.592 -0.024
10 6.588 -0.027
11 6.604 0.010
12 6.617 0.031
13 6.606 -0.009
14 6.600 -0.078
15 6.680 0.014
16 6.693 0.002
17 6.697 0.037
18 6.711 0.045
19 6.755 0.074
20 6.729 0.072
21 6.785 -0.023
22 6.833 0.002
23 6.855 0.026
24 6.846 0.016
25 6.889 -0.041
26 6.854 -0.005
27 6.822 -0.007
28 6.852 -0.039
29 6.853 -0.012
30 6.864 -0.036
3 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋4+(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
60.7539020596309 1.634382811E-12
Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0%
0.00 5.314488722345 6.68819184 5.43167910996
0.13 -0.0569836293 0.42050884 -0.0162488254
0.00 0.099894816676 0.26518848 0.11399599221
0.36 -0.039110257828 0.10320337 -0.026969506
0.22 -0.094390312447 0.38824588 -0.0532166981
Superior 90.0%
6.571001454893
0.379774033538
0.251087307537
0.091062613332
0.347072266076
0.53 0.90 0.89
1990 2.91 0.24 0.08 6.61 6.597
1991 2.94 0.29 0.06 6.58 6.603
1992 2.78 0.20 0.06 6.63 6.567
1993 2.79 0.27 0.19 6.61 6.610
1994 2.83 0.15 0.20 6.53 6.600
1995 2.90 - 0.05 0.20 6.55 6.577
1996 2.92 - 0.11 0.32 6.57 6.598
1997 2.95 - 0.07 0.30 6.59 6.603
1998 2.93 - 0.15 0.33 6.57 6.596
1999 2.86 - 0.08 0.28 6.56 6.584
2000 2.87 - 0.04 0.27 6.61 6.592
2001 2.79 0.06 0.34 6.65 6.614
2002 2.72 0.05 0.33 6.60 6.600
2003 2.69 - 0.01 0.38 6.52 6.597
2004 2.80 0.23 0.51 6.69 6.685
2005 2.84 0.27 0.49 6.70 6.693
2006 2.93 0.24 0.42 6.73 6.684
2007 2.88 0.26 0.54 6.76 6.710
2008 2.86 0.45 0.62 6.83 6.758
2009 2.87 0.28 0.63 6.80 6.733
2010 2.94 0.52 0.64 6.76 6.784
2011 3.00 0.70 0.66 6.83 6.828
2012 3.03 0.73 0.73 6.88 6.855
2013 2.98 0.71 0.78 6.86 6.856
2014 2.96 0.91 0.84 6.85 6.902
2015 2.95 0.82 0.69 6.85 6.849
2016 2.92 0.71 0.62 6.81 6.808
2017 2.90 0.79 0.75 6.81 6.851
2018 2.90 0.74 0.81 6.84 6.858
2019 2.92 0.87 0.69 6.83 6.854
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
(0.40) (0.20) - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
ERROR PROC-PROC EST 𝑙𝑛𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4
0.018 (𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
- 0.022
0.066 B1 6.13
0.002 B2 0.14
- 0.066 B3 0.17
- 0.022 B5 0.25
- 0.023 MCO
- 0.016 SRC 0.040
- 0.028 Minimizar
- 0.023
0.021
0.034
- 0.002
- 0.075
0.010
0.003
0.050
0.046
0.071
0.068
- 0.022
0.006
0.026
0.006
- 0.054
- 0.001
0.006
- 0.038
- 0.017
- 0.025
Resumen
R^2 ajustado 0.892378565785711
Error típico 0.03941628858753
Observaciones 30
Regresión 3 0.378254860943306 0.126084953647769
Residuos 26 0.040 0.00155364380601533
Total 29 0.418649599899705

Intercepción 6.13 0.302392819145239 20.2721432600665
CC 0.14 0.106398082346228 1.31301335890972
PREC 0.17 0.0367419653949632 4.5666157075245
PREP 0.25 0.0498512746493514 4.91909731815498

1 6.59731082186707 0.0175488176104022
2 6.60307068985427 -0.021599721105855
3 6.56678930859075 0.0657393392069503
4 6.610044895152 0.002264920760525
5 6.60018849770203 -0.066254321493597
6 6.57663757630841 -0.022276913143431
7 6.59753249368107 -0.023293823494511
8 6.60293433394596 -0.015659839166994
9 6.59543340657259 -0.027776932267362
10 6.58375535632378 -0.02286614314687
11 6.59206113182635 0.021323086553207
12 6.61382241726289 0.0342549856770615
13 6.59995338918463 -0.002534873219076
14 6.59764134129407 -0.075254468720979
15 6.68497022745262 0.0099630492871832
16 6.6926016879764 0.0033208308373922
17 6.68438974097924 0.0496072118694277
18 6.70990975906753 0.0459755705764824
19 6.75779294475986 0.0712437495108711
20 6.73289651362334 0.0684977493673857
21 6.78381516900518 -0.021895238246589
22 6.8281775633288 0.0065768227688512
23 6.8551052516232 0.025895290050121
24 6.85638402658555 0.0057460743703137
25 6.90216998184151 -0.05437704403206
26 6.84939363155291 -0.000645533150804
27 6.80843426742105 0.0064378840810351
28 6.8512449772424 -0.037800377731507
29 6.85781259282635 -0.017052182668493
30 6.85392826183304 -0.025107970939042
30
3 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋4+
81.154350283 2.508535541E-13
0.00 5.50857320874 6.75172789 5.61438393939 6.645917161668
0.20 -0.079002286995 0.35840649 -0.0417723724 0.321176579361
0.00 0.092262244795 0.24331063 0.10511868171 0.230454190883
0.00 0.142752508839 0.34769403 0.16019604407 0.330250498799
0.90 0.89
1990 0.24 0.08 6.61 6.591
1991 0.29 0.06 6.58 6.592
1992 0.20 0.06 6.63 6.578
1993 0.27 0.19 6.61 6.622
1994 0.15 0.20 6.53 6.604
1995 - 0.05 0.20 6.55 6.568
1996 - 0.11 0.32 6.57 6.586
1997 - 0.07 0.30 6.59 6.587
1998 - 0.15 0.33 6.57 6.582
1999 - 0.08 0.28 6.56 6.581
2000 - 0.04 0.27 6.61 6.588
2001 0.06 0.34 6.65 6.623
2002 0.05 0.33 6.60 6.619
2003 - 0.01 0.38 6.52 6.619
2004 0.23 0.51 6.69 6.696
2005 0.27 0.49 6.70 6.698
2006 0.24 0.42 6.73 6.676
2007 0.26 0.54 6.76 6.710
2008 0.45 0.62 6.83 6.764
2009 0.28 0.63 6.80 6.736
2010 0.52 0.64 6.76 6.780
2011 0.70 0.66 6.83 6.818
2012 0.73 0.73 6.88 6.842
2013 0.71 0.78 6.86 6.850
2014 0.91 0.84 6.85 6.901
2015 0.82 0.69 6.85 6.848
2016 0.71 0.62 6.81 6.809
2017 0.79 0.75 6.81 6.857
2018 0.74 0.81 6.84 6.863
2019 0.87 0.69 6.83 6.857
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
(0.40) (0.20) - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
ERROR PROC-PROC EST 𝑙𝑛𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
0.024
- 0.011
0.055 B1 6.53
- 0.010 B3 0.18
- 0.070 B5 0.25
- 0.014 MCO
- 0.011 SRC 0.043
0.000
- 0.015 Minimizar
- 0.021
0.025
0.025
- 0.021
- 0.097
- 0.001
- 0.002
0.058
0.046
0.065
0.066
- 0.018
0.017
0.039
0.012
- 0.054
0.001
0.006
-
-
0.044
0.022
𝑙𝑛𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂ln⁡(𝑋3)+(𝛽_5 ) ̂l
- 0.028
𝑙𝑛𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂
Resumen
𝑦=𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝛽_1 ) ̂
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.947160965067401 y=
R^2 ajustado 0.889492700691663
Error típico 0.03994126577581
Observaciones 30
Regresión 2 0.37557637268182 0.18778818634091
Residuos 27 0.043 0.00159530471177352
Total 29 0.418649599899705

Intercepción 6.53 0.0171913483127042 379.642764040566
PREC 0.18 0.035777333984579 5.06289074402138
PREP 0.25 0.0503660235866138 4.96863678778443

1 6.59129445830414 0.0235651811733266
2 6.59224785019786 -0.010776881449445
3 6.57802383343997 0.0545048143577329
4 6.62191882461215 -0.009609008699631
5 6.60384905473139 -0.069914878522953
6 6.56809765846902 -0.013736995304047
7 6.58566373233161 -0.011425062145058
8 6.58704459701032 0.0002298977686488
9 6.58242311175976 -0.014766637454531
10 6.58143077941526 -0.020541566238348
11 6.58792935646544 0.0254548619141195
12 6.62285318416109 0.0252242187788658
13 6.61854774807571 -0.021129232110162
14 6.6193877469645 -0.097000874391409
15 6.69622826934901 -0.001294992609211
16 6.69763494297818 -0.001712424164383
17 6.67629546446415 0.0577014883845166
18 6.71034926790514 0.0455360617388703
19 6.76431244638181 0.0647242478889218
20 6.73555059152239 0.0658436714683326
21 6.77972825397216 -0.017808323213569
22 6.81807724619442 0.0166771399032246
23 6.84161379431245 0.0393867473608651
24 6.84980912124186 0.0123209797140058
25 6.90138638163836 -0.053593443828909
26 6.84820333278923 0.0005447656128759
27 6.8090353062024 0.0058368452996849
28 6.85737344579649 -0.043928846285596
29 6.86284744267419 -0.022087032516331
30 6.85704501332437 -0.028224722430374
30
30
5 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
n⁡(𝑋3)+(𝛽_5 ) ̂ln⁡(𝑋5)+𝑢
683.03
117.7130519 4.643183806E-14
0.000000 6.49 6.56 6.49728916607 6.555852815967
0.000026 0.11 0.25 0.12019761348 0.242075852671
0.000033 0.15 0.35 0.16446261161 0.336038343679
B1 1.87 1.88
0.53 0.88 0.83 0.91
1990 18.30 1.28 1.20 1.09 6.61 6.587
1991 19.00 1.33 1.26 1.06 6.58 6.596
1992 16.10 1.23 1.50 1.06 6.63 6.559
1993 16.20 1.31 1.59 1.21 6.61 6.586
1994 17.00 1.17 1.83 1.22 6.53 6.586
1995 18.20 0.95 2.28 1.22 6.55 6.586
1996 18.60 0.89 2.55 1.38 6.57 6.606
1997 19.20 0.93 2.94 1.34 6.59 6.615
1998 18.70 0.86 3.15 1.39 6.57 6.612
1999 17.40 0.92 3.60 1.32 6.56 6.599
2000 17.70 0.97 4.29 1.31 6.61 6.610
2001 16.30 1.06 4.32 1.40 6.65 6.616
2002 15.20 1.05 5.10 1.39 6.60 6.609
2003 14.80 0.99 5.61 1.46 6.52 6.612
2004 16.40 1.26 5.34 1.67 6.69 6.674
2005 17.20 1.31 5.40 1.63 6.70 6.683
2006 18.80 1.27 5.70 1.53 6.73 6.687
2007 17.80 1.30 6.21 1.72 6.76 6.707
2008 17.40 1.57 6.57 1.87 6.83 6.746
2009 17.60 1.32 7.14 1.89 6.80 6.735
2010 18.90 1.68 6.87 1.89 6.76 6.776
2011 20.10 2.02 6.81 1.93 6.83 6.821
2012 20.70 2.07 7.11 2.08 6.88 6.853
2013 19.70 2.04 6.27 2.17 6.86 6.843
2014 19.30 2.47 6.54 2.32 6.85 6.896
2015 19.10 2.28 7.50 1.99 6.85 6.846
2016 18.60 2.03 8.67 1.85 6.81 6.813
2017 18.10 2.19 9.00 2.12 6.81 6.858
2018 18.20 2.10 9.00 2.24 6.84 6.866
2019 18.60 2.38 9.33 2.00 6.83 6.866
Resumen
1.PROC-PREP
7.00 Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación mú
6.90 Coeficiente de determinació
R^2 ajustado
6.80
Error típico
6.70 Observaciones
6.60
6.50
Regresión
6.40
Residuos
6.30
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
6.50
6.40
6.30 Total
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
Intercepción
2.PROC-PREH CC
7.00 PREC
PREH
6.90
PREP
6.80
6.70
6.60 Análisis de los residuales
6.50 Observación
1
6.40
2
6.30 3
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
4
5
3.PROC-PREC 6
7
7.00
8
6.90 9
10
6.80
11
6.70 12
13
6.60
14
6.50 15
16
6.40 17
6.30 18
0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60 19
20
21
4.PROC-CC 22
7.00 23
24
6.90 25
6.80 26
27
6.70 28
29
6.60
30
6.50
6.40
6.30
14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
6.50
6.40
6.30
14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
ERROR PROC-PROC EST ln⁡(𝑦)=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 )
0.028
- 0.014
(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
0.073 B1 6.146
0.027 B2 0.010
- 0.052 B3 0.082
- 0.031 B4 0.009
- 0.032 B5 0.123
- 0.028 MCO
- 0.038
0.003
0.032
- 0.011
- 0.090
0.021
0.013
0.047
0.049
0.083
0.067
- 0.014
0.014
0.028
0.019
- 0.048
0.003
0.001
- 0.045
- 0.025
- 0.038
0.938765345789918
0.881280374456065
0.862285234369035
0.0445878565235923
30

Promedio de los cuadrados F
4 0.368947676165493 0.0922369190413734 46.3950447545172
25 0.050 0.0019880769493685
29 0.418649599899705
Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

6.147 0.116248267688376 52.8780886982132 3.50309116163329E-27
0.010 0.00752743320322 1.38278279573522 0.178959290662156
0.083 0.03135640552187 2.63360726799115 0.0142841802885418
0.009 0.0082527339564 1.08800894904595 0.286969416630901
0.123 0.06565211939905 1.8694093239674 0.0733234639191743
Pronóstico PROC Residuos

6.58685909828251 0.02800054119496
6.59572217373735 -0.01425120498894
6.55936189767645 0.07316675012125
6.58581877948639 0.026491036426135
6.58620389766052 -0.05226972145209
6.58559579066115 -0.03123512749617
6.60594430766179 -0.03170563747523
6.61479848953408 -0.02752399475511
6.61187284784572 -0.04421637354049
6.5986424269438 -0.03775321376689
6.61034620005105 0.00303801832851
6.61568733687524 0.03239006606472
6.60870932823744 -0.01129081227189
6.61228257198003 -0.08989569940693
6.67434067463986 0.020592602099935
6.68266711682331 0.01325540199048
6.68644148284174 0.04755547000693
6.70688425543206 0.04900107421195
6.74570367828818 0.08333301598255
6.73474645473627 0.06664780825446
6.77605759235308 -0.01413766159449
6.8206585632862 0.01409582281144
6.85247837161496 0.02852217005836
6.8433985403825 0.01873156057336
6.895788811887 -0.04799587407755
6.8457914393959 0.00295665900621
6.8133673888776 0.00150476262448
6.85802391657787 -0.04457931706697
6.86567396753917 -0.02491355738131
6.86633485537562 -0.03751456448163
3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+
Valor crítico de F
3.245574E-11
Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0% Superior 90.0% Superior 90.0%
5.908 6.386 5.94841781 6.3455546143 6.352726933565
-0.005 0.026 -0.00244911 0.02326672061 0.019327342102
0.018 0.147 0.0290193 0.13614161188 0.137687393658
-0.008 0.026 -0.00511778 0.02307587966 0.248036404475
-0.012 0.258 0.01058762 0.23487374535
0.53 0.88 0.91
1990 18.30 1.28 1.09 6.61 6.591
1991 19.00 1.33 1.06 6.58 6.595
1992 16.10 1.23 1.06 6.63 6.566
1993 16.20 1.31 1.21 6.61 6.599
1994 17.00 1.17 1.22 6.53 6.596
1995 18.20 0.95 1.22 6.55 6.587
1996 18.60 0.89 1.38 6.57 6.613
1997 19.20 0.93 1.34 6.59 6.614
1998 18.70 0.86 1.39 6.57 6.614
1999 17.40 0.92 1.32 6.56 6.596
2000 17.70 0.97 1.31 6.61 6.601
2001 16.30 1.06 1.40 6.65 6.615
2002 15.20 1.05 1.39 6.60 6.604
2003 14.80 0.99 1.46 6.52 6.608
2004 16.40 1.26 1.67 6.69 6.680
2005 17.20 1.31 1.63 6.70 6.683
2006 18.80 1.27 1.53 6.73 6.673
2007 17.80 1.30 1.72 6.76 6.703
2008 17.40 1.57 1.87 6.83 6.748
2009 17.60 1.32 1.89 6.80 6.733
2010 18.90 1.68 1.89 6.76 6.773
2011 20.10 2.02 1.93 6.83 6.817
2012 20.70 2.07 2.08 6.88 6.853
2013 19.70 2.04 2.17 6.86 6.860
2014 19.30 2.47 2.32 6.85 6.920
2015 19.10 2.28 1.99 6.85 6.843
2016 18.60 2.03 1.85 6.81 6.794
2017 18.10 2.19 2.12 6.81 6.852
2018 18.20 2.10 2.24 6.84 6.866
2019 18.60 2.38 2.00 6.83 6.849
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
6.50
6.40
6.30
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40 2.60
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
6.50
6.40
6.30
14.00 15.00 16.00 17.00 18.00 19.00 20.00 21.00 22.00
ERROR PROC-PROC EST ln⁡(𝑦)=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 )
0.024
- 0.014
(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
0.067 B1 6.153
0.013 B2 0.007
- 0.062 B3 0.084
- 0.033 B5 0.179
- 0.038 MCO
- 0.027 SRC 0.052
- 0.046 Minimizar
- 0.036
0.013
0.033
- 0.006
- 0.085
0.015
0.013
0.061
0.053
0.081
0.069
- 0.011
0.018
0.028
0.002
- 0.072
0.006
0.021
- 0.039
- 0.025
- 0.020
Resumen
R^2 ajustado 0.861311890382734
Error típico 0.04474514868796
Observaciones 30
Regresión 3 0.366594263290912 0.122198087763637
Residuos 26 0.052 0.00200212833110741
Total 29 0.418649599899705

Intercepción 6.154 0.116475544281841 52.8356763298982
CC 0.007 0.0070131352557279 1.05025964388323
PREC 0.084 0.0314371069337819 2.67415512830015
PREP 0.179 0.040370195298237 4.43842975309676

1 6.59067300671386 0.0241866327636044
2 6.5952947835321 -0.013823814783682
3 6.56559037633945 0.0669382714582536
4 6.59928789522643 0.0130219206860964
5 6.59562483677657 -0.061690660568137
6 6.58719645348224 -0.032835790317266
7 6.61246786096626 -0.038229190779703
8 6.61426064080753 -0.026986146028563
9 6.61355444048261 -0.045897966177385
10 6.59637550176671 -0.035486288589805
11 6.60047134479483 0.0129128735847326
12 6.61521969276149 0.0328577101784671
13 6.60386194703187 -0.00644343106632
14 6.60779116739729 -0.085404294824193
15 6.67970132005095 0.015231956688849
16 6.68287518185864 0.0130473369551511
17 6.67324673012035 0.0607502227283216
18 6.70320318918165 0.0526821404623599
19 6.74849761658813 0.0805390776826043
20 6.73261667999225 0.0687775829984822
21 6.77325636988653 -0.01133643912794
22 6.81718542671338 0.0175689593842687
23 6.85312396753168 0.0278765741416365
24 6.85998742818197 0.0021426727738954
25 6.92010057588107 -0.072307638071619
26 6.84317481700605 0.0055732813960532
27 6.79353916362011 0.0213329878819746
28 6.85237901192499 -0.038934412414093
29 6.86626208455313 -0.025501674395271
30 6.84938274551472 -0.020562454620722
30
3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑋4+
61.034093502 6.6832226759E-12
0.00 5.915 6.393 5.95540138248 6.352726933565
0.30 -0.007 0.022 -0.0045961162 0.019327342102
0.01 0.019 0.149 0.03044800779 0.137687393658
0.00 0.096 0.262 0.11032414743 0.248036404475
0.88 0.91
1990 1.28 1.09 6.61 6.585
1991 1.33 1.06 6.58 6.585
1992 1.23 1.06 6.63 6.576
1993 1.31 1.21 6.61 6.610
1994 1.17 1.22 6.53 6.599
1995 0.95 1.22 6.55 6.580
1996 0.89 1.38 6.57 6.602
1997 0.93 1.34 6.59 6.600
1998 0.86 1.39 6.57 6.602
1999 0.92 1.32 6.56 6.595
2000 0.97 1.31 6.61 6.597
2001 1.06 1.40 6.65 6.623
2002 1.05 1.39 6.60 6.620
2003 0.99 1.46 6.52 6.626
2004 1.26 1.67 6.69 6.689
2005 1.31 1.63 6.70 6.687
2006 1.27 1.53 6.73 6.665
2007 1.30 1.72 6.76 6.703
2008 1.57 1.87 6.83 6.754
2009 1.32 1.89 6.80 6.734
2010 1.68 1.89 6.76 6.769
2011 2.02 1.93 6.83 6.807
2012 2.07 2.08 6.88 6.839
2013 2.04 2.17 6.86 6.854
2014 2.47 2.32 6.85 6.921
2015 2.28 1.99 6.85 6.843
2016 2.03 1.85 6.81 6.795
2017 2.19 2.12 6.81 6.859
2018 2.10 2.24 6.84 6.872
2019 2.38 2.00 6.83 6.854
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
6.50
6.40
6.30
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2.20 2.40
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00
ERROR PROC-PROC EST ln⁡(𝑦)=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
0.029
- 0.004
0.056 B1 6.270
0.002 B3 0.093
- 0.065 B5 0.181
- 0.026 MCO
- 0.028 SRC 0.054
- 0.012
- 0.034 Minimizar
- 0.034
0.016
0.025
- 0.022
- 0.104
0.006
0.009
0.069
0.053
0.075
0.067
- 0.007
0.028
0.042
0.009
- 0.073
0.006
0.020
-
-
0.046
0.031
ln⁡(𝑦)=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3
(𝛽_5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
- 0.025
ln⁡(𝑦)=(𝛽_1 ) ̂
Resumen
𝑦=𝑒𝑥𝑝(𝛽_1 ) ̂
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.932943615100701 y=
R^2 ajustado 0.860782588139177
Error típico 0.04483045215591
Observaciones 30
Regresión 2 0.364385825006106 0.182192912503053
Residuos 27 0.054 0.00200976944050365
Total 29 0.418649599899705

Intercepción 6.270 0.037968464677022 165.130140143738
PREC 0.093 0.0301907202866709 3.09624241365197
PREP 0.181 0.0404128639796799 4.47693797346816

1 6.58545432409148 0.0294053153859899
2 6.58539750058323 -0.003926531834815
3 6.57607359656697 0.0564550512307314
4 6.6100536918442 0.0022561240683254
5 6.59918440117836 -0.06525022496993
6 6.57992345737473 -0.025562794209759
7 6.60193991190955 -0.027701241722991
8 6.59959916204482 -0.012324667265854
9 6.60203918718029 -0.034382712875063
10 6.59486619528779 -0.033976982110879
11 6.59714658968757 0.0162376286919947
12 6.62330288636299 0.0247745165769588
13 6.61991178951638 -0.02249327355083
14 6.62632087406663 -0.103934001493533
15 6.68931559371443 0.005617683025374
16 6.68702509128248 0.0088974275313145
17 6.66509161819377 0.0689053346549056
18 6.70302070318547 0.0528646264585442
19 6.7540366200426 0.0750000742281332
20 6.7343585640013 0.067035698989427
21 6.76879332536315 -0.006873394604559
22 6.80718584778561 0.0275685383120345
23 6.83945595947991 0.0415445821934091
24 6.85352296755817 0.008607133397688
25 6.92095529661321 -0.073162358803751
26 6.84309948381242 0.0056486145896857
27 6.79455118426957 0.0203209672325082
28 6.85908257776642 -0.045637978255525
29 6.87153385278922 -0.030773442631366
30 6.85396000313212 -0.025139712238126
30 6.84938274551472 -0.020562454620722
30
5 ) ̂𝑋5+𝑢
_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑋3+
+𝑢
528.33
90.653638587 1.0493028353E-12
0.00 6.19 6.35 6.20506664597 6.334409140345
0.00 0.03 0.16 0.04205428362 0.144901293683
0.00 0.10 0.26 0.11209112109 0.249760649642
B1 488.74 571.14
0.54 0.90 0.76 0.90
1990 2.91 0.24 0.18 0.08 746.10 730.168
1991 2.94 0.29 0.23 0.06 721.60 739.655
1992 2.78 0.20 0.41 0.06 759.40 706.550
1993 2.79 0.27 0.46 0.19 744.20 735.507
1994 2.83 0.15 0.60 0.20 688.10 730.501
1995 2.90 - 0.05 0.82 0.20 702.30 716.492
1996 2.92 - 0.11 0.94 0.32 716.40 728.337
1997 2.95 - 0.07 1.08 0.30 725.80 739.079
1998 2.93 - 0.15 1.15 0.33 711.70 730.407
1999 2.86 - 0.08 1.28 0.28 706.90 725.183
2000 2.87 - 0.04 1.46 0.27 745.00 737.495
2001 2.79 0.06 1.46 0.34 771.30 748.715
2002 2.72 0.05 1.63 0.33 733.20 738.871
2003 2.69 - 0.01 1.72 0.38 680.20 734.304
2004 2.80 0.23 1.68 0.51 808.30 801.962
2005 2.84 0.27 1.69 0.49 809.10 812.302
2006 2.93 0.24 1.74 0.42 840.50 814.220
2007 2.88 0.26 1.83 0.54 859.10 827.124
2008 2.86 0.45 1.88 0.62 924.30 863.244
2009 2.87 0.28 1.97 0.63 899.10 842.656
2010 2.94 0.52 1.93 0.64 864.30 888.388
2011 3.00 0.70 1.92 0.66 929.60 927.528
2012 3.03 0.73 1.96 0.73 973.60 946.833
2013 2.98 0.71 1.84 0.78 955.40 940.025
2014 2.96 0.91 1.88 0.84 941.80 975.248
2015 2.95 0.82 2.01 0.69 942.70 944.121
2016 2.92 0.71 2.16 0.62 911.30 916.479
2017 2.90 0.79 2.20 0.75 910.00 942.913
2018 2.90 0.74 2.20 0.81 935.20 944.427
2019 2.92 0.87 2.23 0.69 924.10 951.854
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
(0.40) (0.20) - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
ERROR PROC-PROC EST 𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_2 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋2+(𝛽_3 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4 )
15.932 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
- 18.055
52.850 B1 236.292
8.693 B2 152.369
- 42.401 B3 147.379
- 14.192 B4 22.185
- 11.937 B5 133.895
- 13.279 MCO
- 18.707 SRC 23277.66 Minimizar
- 18.283
7.505
22.585
- 5.671
- 54.104
6.338
- 3.202
26.280
31.976
61.056
56.444
- 24.088
2.072
26.767
15.375
- 33.448
- 1.421
- 5.179
- 32.913
- 9.227
- 27.754
Resumen
R^2 ajustado 0.903796605402862
Error típico 30.5140382009802
Observaciones 30
Regresión 4 257399.431483395 64349.8578708487
Residuos 25 23277.66 931.106527330878
Total 29 280677.094666667

Intercepción 236.631 257.482283250207 0.91901976671808
CC 152.251 89.4995787480161 1.70113976970021
PREC 147.380 30.9820877646409 4.75695546407861
PREH 22.169 26.6747858698866 0.831071559058905
PREP 133.949 90.4637014358472 1.48069236555357

1 730.167 15.933
2 739.647 -18.047
3 706.558 52.842
4 735.521 8.679
5 730.507 -42.407
6 716.487 -14.187
7 728.334 -11.934
8 739.069 -13.269
9 730.400 -18.700
10 725.180 -18.280
11 737.487 7.513
12 748.720 22.580
13 738.882 -5.682
14 734.318 -54.118
15 801.973 6.327
16 812.305 -3.205
17 814.208 26.292
18 827.124 31.976
19 863.251 61.049
20 842.660 56.440
21 888.385 -24.085
22 927.519 2.081
23 946.824 26.776
24 940.026 15.374
25 975.255 -33.455
26 944.118 -1.418
27 916.473 -5.173
28 942.917 -32.917
29 944.433 -9.233
30 951.851 -27.751
) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋4+(𝛽_5
69.111166104 3.800047542E-13
0.3668678065 -293.6633811181 766.925997 -203.18467543 676.4472912065
0.1013241941 -32.07654010705 336.579126 -0.6265857947 305.129171354
6.995105E-05 83.57160748451 211.189216 94.4586447011 200.30217866
0.4138004773 -32.76909400502 77.1064058 -23.395633162 67.73294492247
0.1511824691 -52.36456865611 320.262393 -20.575823761 288.4736479121
0.54 0.90 0.90
1990 2.91 0.24 0.08 746.10 733.778
1991 2.94 0.29 0.06 721.60 738.782
1992 2.78 0.20 0.06 759.40 707.645
1993 2.79 0.27 0.19 744.20 743.253
1994 2.83 0.15 0.20 688.10 735.641
1995 2.90 - 0.05 0.20 702.30 716.999
1996 2.92 - 0.11 0.32 716.40 734.449
1997 2.95 - 0.07 0.30 725.80 739.115
1998 2.93 - 0.15 0.33 711.70 732.798
1999 2.86 - 0.08 0.28 706.90 722.531
2000 2.87 - 0.04 0.27 745.00 729.463
2001 2.79 0.06 0.34 771.30 746.619
2002 2.72 0.05 0.33 733.20 734.644
2003 2.69 - 0.01 0.38 680.20 732.585
2004 2.80 0.23 0.51 808.30 805.095
2005 2.84 0.27 0.49 809.10 811.724
2006 2.93 0.24 0.42 840.50 805.709
2007 2.88 0.26 0.54 859.10 826.261
2008 2.86 0.45 0.62 924.30 865.322
2009 2.87 0.28 0.63 899.10 845.086
2010 2.94 0.52 0.64 864.30 887.356
2011 3.00 0.70 0.66 929.60 924.200
2012 3.03 0.73 0.73 973.60 946.589
2013 2.98 0.71 0.78 955.40 947.258
2014 2.96 0.91 0.84 941.80 984.603
2015 2.95 0.82 0.69 942.70 941.138
2016 2.92 0.71 0.62 911.30 907.309
2017 2.90 0.79 0.75 910.00 942.266
2018 2.90 0.74 0.81 935.20 947.764
2019 2.92 0.87 0.69 924.10 944.614
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
(0.40) (0.20) - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
12.322 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
- 17.182
51.755 B1 325.78
0.947 B2 123.14
- 47.541 B3 137.18
- 14.699 B5 201.95
- 18.049 MCO
- 13.315 SRC 23920.76
- 21.098 Minimizar
- 15.631
15.537
24.681
- 1.444
- 52.385
3.205
- 2.624
34.791
32.839
58.978
54.014
- 23.056
5.400
27.011
8.142
- 42.803
1.562
3.991
- 32.266
- 12.564
- 20.514
Resumen
R^2 ajustado 0.904941130023908
Error típico 30.3319834880074
Observaciones 30
Regresión 3 256756.334886431 85585.4449621437
Residuos 26 23920.76 920.029222316753
Total 29 280677.094666667

Intercepción 325.74 232.700092420865 1.39981736072849
CC 123.16 81.8764270439855 1.50416123640555
PREC 137.17 28.2740138052871 4.85156742649421
PREP 201.95 38.3620095576091 5.26422378392758

1 733.778356657718 12.3216433422823
2 738.782889651314 -17.1828896513141
3 707.643594383697 51.7564056163027
4 743.251375156007 0.948624843993343
5 735.640464144534 -47.5404641445338
6 717.000422924975 -14.7004229249751
7 734.450583768975 -18.0505837689752
8 739.116622416754 -13.3166224167542
9 732.799199353579 -21.0991993535792
10 722.53188523767 -15.63188523767
11 729.463979180267 15.5360208197334
12 746.618749402033 24.6812505979669
13 734.64227393027 -1.44227393026961
14 732.582962124722 -52.382962124722
15 805.094060216182 3.20593978381828
16 811.72353372344 -2.62353372343966
17 805.710151931926 34.7898480680744
18 826.261163035855 32.8388369641448
19 865.32174353085 58.9782564691496
20 845.086205465391 54.013794534609
21 887.356373947707 -23.0563739477075
22 924.201390340072 5.39860965992841
23 946.590052876616 27.009947123384
24 947.258757909059 8.14124209094132
25 984.603101050621 -42.8031010506206
26 941.13816709035 1.56183290965032
27 907.308613558388 3.99138644161235
28 942.265792380843 -32.2657923808432
29 947.76379786122 -12.5637978612201
30 944.613736748964 -20.5137367489644
30
) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋4+(𝛽_5
93.024702788 5.024831948E-14
0.17 -152.58 804.06 -71.159818349 722.6350767765
0.14 -45.14 291.45 -16.494553437 262.805248907
0.00 79.06 195.29 88.9486197842 185.3979490038
0.00 123.09 280.80 136.515272173 267.3771340519
0.90 0.90
1990 0.24 0.08 746.10 728.473
1991 0.29 0.06 721.60 729.240
1992 0.20 0.06 759.40 717.545
1993 0.27 0.19 744.20 753.717
1994 0.15 0.20 688.10 738.866
1995 - 0.05 0.20 702.30 709.471
1996 - 0.11 0.32 716.40 723.987
1997 - 0.07 0.30 725.80 725.108
1998 - 0.15 0.33 711.70 721.329
1999 - 0.08 0.28 706.90 720.482
2000 - 0.04 0.27 745.00 725.821
2001 0.06 0.34 771.30 754.579
2002 0.05 0.33 733.20 751.033
2003 - 0.01 0.38 680.20 751.753
2004 0.23 0.51 808.30 815.018
2005 0.27 0.49 809.10 816.160
2006 0.24 0.42 840.50 798.574
2007 0.26 0.54 859.10 826.648
2008 0.45 0.62 924.30 871.069
2009 0.28 0.63 899.10 847.426
2010 0.52 0.64 864.30 883.754
2011 0.70 0.66 929.60 915.297
2012 0.73 0.73 973.60 934.697
2013 0.71 0.78 955.40 941.463
2014 0.91 0.84 941.80 983.913
2015 0.82 0.69 942.70 940.089
2016 0.71 0.62 911.30 907.838
2017 0.79 0.75 910.00 947.669
2018 0.74 0.81 935.20 952.203
2019 0.87 0.69 924.10 947.361
1.PROC-PREP
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 1 0 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
2.PROC-PREH
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
- 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
3.PROC-PREC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
(0.40) (0.20) - 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
4.PROC-CC
7.00
6.90
6.80
6.70
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
6.60
6.50
6.40
6.30
2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00 3.05
17.627 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋5+𝑢
- 7.640
41.855 B1 675.20
- 9.517 B3 148.94
- 50.766 B5 206.38
- 7.171 MCO
- 7.587 SRC 26002.33
0.692
- 9.629 Minimizar
- 13.582
19.179
16.721
- 17.833
- 71.553
- 6.718
- 7.060
41.926
32.452
53.231
51.674
- 19.454
14.303
38.903
13.937
- 42.113
2.611
3.462
- 37.669
- 17.003
- 23.261 𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂+(𝛽_3 ) ̂ln⁡(𝑋3)+(𝛽_5
Resumen
𝑦=(𝛽_1 ) ̂
Coeficiente de correl 0.952553710855183
Coeficiente de deter 0.907358572063979
R^2 ajustado 0.900496244068718
Error típico 31.0330330805703
Observaciones 30
Regresión 2 254674.767827813
Total 29 280677.094666667

Intercepción 675.20 13.3571050021887
PREC 148.94 27.7977967776527
PREP 206.38 39.1327226551487

1 728.47459008428 17.62540991572
2 729.241941103411 -7.64194110341123
3 717.547466837635 41.8525331623651
4 753.718919131277 -9.5189191312769
5 738.867453306575 -50.7674533065746
6 709.471999766583 -7.17199976658344
7 723.987595777151 -7.58759577715068
8 725.108915811503 0.691084188496575
9 721.32988470576 -9.62988470576022
10 720.482638516481 -13.5826385164811
11 725.821584265305 19.1784157346954
12 754.579883915631 16.7201160843692
13 751.034258575076 -17.8342585750761
14 751.753655232098 -71.5536552320982
15 815.018664284395 -6.718664284395
16 816.160634200297 -7.06063420029705
17 798.574586940235 41.9254130597653
18 826.648615066849 32.4513849331513
19 871.06905491194 53.2309450880603
20 847.425926045284 51.674073954716
21 883.753525962559 -19.4535259625593
22 915.29738647825 14.3026135217497
23 934.696566127804 38.9034338721965
24 941.462604996978 13.9373950030224
25 983.912312915738 -42.1123129157377
26 940.088851049325 2.61114895067544
27 907.838463419442 3.46153658055835
28 947.668385878323 -37.6683858783232
29 952.202304285565 -17.0023042855646
30 947.361330408247 -23.2613304082472
) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋3+(𝛽_4 ) ̂𝑙𝑛𝑋4+(𝛽_5
̂ln⁡(𝑋3)+(𝛽_5 ) ̂ln⁡(𝑋5)+𝑢
y= 675.20

127337.38391 132.2231424512 1.12686E-14
963.04914218
Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0% Superior 90.0%
50.550234352 0.00 647.80 702.61 652.4537855055 697.955791
5.358062414 0.00 91.91 205.98 101.5946640391 196.289996
5.2737953619 0.00 126.08 286.67 139.7236568896 273.032286

GRAFICAS

Cargado por

Información del documento

Derechos de autor

Formatos disponibles

Compartir este documento

Compartir o incrustar documentos

Opciones para compartir

¿Le pareció útil este documento?

¿Este contenido es inapropiado?

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

GRAFICAS

Cargado por

Copyright:

Formatos disponibles

0.54 0.89 0.83 0.

=𝛽_1+𝛽_2 𝑋2+𝛽_3 𝑋3+𝛽_4 𝑋4+𝛽_5

Coeficientes Error típico

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0%

Coeficientes Error típico

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 90.0% Superior 90.0%

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

6.60 Análisis de los residuales

Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Coeficientes Error típico

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico PROC Residuos

Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F

También podría gustarte