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Introduction
To collect the data of existing airlines on the aforesaid routes Internet was
used as a main source. Since these types of data are usually classified we
could not get the exact flight by flight data of the existing airlines. The
method we devised was simple and hopefully effective. Data for all the
routes operating from Delhi were found with the corresponding number of
flights. Number of flights for one destination was found from the airline
schedule. The percentage weightage of each flight was assumed to be same
and hence the number of passengers travelling to one route was found.
This assumption is a justified one as Indian Airlines and its
subsidiaries operate mostly one kind of aircraft (as shown in table 2.1). If we
assume a uniform load factor averaged out over a whole year then this
assumption is more so valid.
Past data for number of passengers travelling on these routes were obtained
and demand for air travel in the coming years was forecast. Various models
have been suggested in the recent literature but gravity model was found
suitable.
Gravity Model
The reasons for considering this model to analyze and forecast the demand
are the following.
• There are many models for demand forecasting but they are valid for
particular region or cities and are not good fit for these three cities.
• This model has been validated for various roots in India and gives fairly
good results.
• This model contains seven variables, which can be adjusted based on the
region.
• It is assumed that this model works fine by setting the Strong variables.
We can also find the effect of weak variables on demand.
Strong variables are those, which affect the air travel in the region directly.
FORMULATION FOR GRAVITY MODEL
where
D = Annual demand for travel
2500
2000
No. of Pax
1500
1000
500
0
9 5 -9 6 9 6 -9 7 9 7 -9 8 9 8 -9 9 9 9 -0 0 0 0 -0 1 fo re c a s t
Y e a rs
70000
60000
50000
No. of Pax
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 forecast
Year
500
400
No. of Pax
300
200
100
0
95-96 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 forecast
Year
The cost per passenger for various aircrafts is calculated and the results are
shown below.
3000
2500
Cost per Pax (Rs)
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SAAB- SAAB- ATR42- Dor Dash8- Dash8- Jet Dor
340B 2000 320 nier- S-200 S-300 Stream nier-
328 200 228
Aircraft type
6000
Cost per Pax (Rs)
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
00
20
28
28
B
0
0
20
40
-2
-3
20
-3
-2
-3
-3
S
42
am
er
er
B-
8-
8-
AB
ni
ni
R
A
re
h
h
or
or
AT
SA
SA
as
as
St
D
D
D
t
Je
Aircraft Type
4500
4000
3500
Cost per Pax (Rs)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SAAB- SAAB- ATR42- Dor Dash8- Dash8- Jet Dor
340B 2000 320 nier- S-200 S-300 Stream nier-
328 200 228
Aircraft Type
Different aircraft have different performance ratings and also they perform
differently as the ambient condition change. The effect of external
parameters such as runway length of the airport, ambient temperature and
airport altitude has been considered. These parameters limit the maximum
passenger carrying capacity. Complimenting these problems are design
parameters such as maximum payload and structural limits.
All these parameters are taken into consideration to calculate the
maximum passenger carrying capacity. The cargo carrying capacity of the
aircraft has not been considered as governing factor. In some cases the
decrease in maximum payload was attributed only to decrease in cargo
carrying capacity without affecting the maximum passenger carrying
capacity.
The aircraft which were affected by the above mentioned factors
have been shown in the table and their reduced capacity has been tabulated.
The capacity not affected is indicated by a dash.
The data for airports in consideration are as follows:
As seen from the tables in some aircraft the effect of temperature is more
pronounced as in Dornier-228 while some aircraft as ATR-42 are more
affected by airport altitude. The temperature data of the respective cities is
shown in Appendix B.
For Jabalpur the situation was similar to that of Ludhiana, hence the demand
of air travel was predicted from 20% load factor of A320 which currently
operates 4 flights a week between Delhi and Jabalpur and similar
calculations were made to calculate the trips per year and price of ticket.
These all costs have been added to find the Fare per passenger per kilometer
of the distance traveled. Bar graphs for different aircrafts for different routes
have been shown.
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
ATR42- SAAB- Dash8- SAAB- Do-328 Dash- Do-228- Jet
320 340B S-300 2000 S-200 212 Stream
Aircraft type
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
fare/pax/Km
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
ATR42- SAAB- Dash8- SAAB- Do-328 Dash- Do-228- Jet
320 340B S-300 2000 S-200 212 Stream
Aircraft type
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
ATR42- SAAB- Dash8- SAAB- Do-328 Dash-S- Do-228- Jet
320 340B S-300 2000 200 212 Stream
Aircraft Type
The DOC estimation for buying and leasing has been done applying
the following procedure.
For leasing:
Cmainte=√(SHPTO/2380).[Fempt+Feopt+Felpt+Fmhr+Tblk.(Fempfh+Feopfh+Fmhr.Felpfh)]
Where,
SHPTO = Eng power at max t/o rating(HP)
2380 = Eng power at max t/o rating for Dash-8-300 (HP)
Fempt = cost of material for engine maintenance per trip ($7.240
Felpt = Man-hours per trip for engine maintenance ( 0.04)
Feopt = Man-hours per trip for engine overhaul ( 18.67 hrs)
Fmhr = Man-hour rate for engine maintenance ($18.8/hr)
Fempfh = cost of material for engine maintenance per flight
hr.($10.86)
Feopfh = cost of material for engine overhaul per flight hr.($
74.69)
Felpfh = Man hrs per flight hr for airframe maintenance (0.015
hrs)
The charges levied towards landing fee depend on the policy in force
at the airport, and vary from country to country, and sometimes even from
airport to airport within a country.
M To
= 46 × if M To ≤ 1000
1000
= 1280 + 162 × ⎛⎜ ⎞
M To
− 20 ⎟ if M To > 2000kg
⎝ 1000 ⎠
M To
=6× if M To ≤ 10000
1000
= 60 + 11 × ⎛⎜ ⎞
M To
− 10 ⎟ if 10000kg < M To < 20000kg
⎝ 1000 ⎠
= 167 + 21 × ⎛⎜ ⎞
M To
− 20 ⎟ if M To > 20000kg
⎝ 1000 ⎠
A useful figure of merit for comparing the aircraft operating cost is the DOC
per seat per nautical mile. This is obtained using:
DOC snm is usually evaluated in cents per seat per nautical mile, and is
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
2
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
16.00
14.00
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
12.00
ATR42-320
10.00 SAAB-340B
Dash8-S-300
SAAB-2000
DO-328
8.00
Dash8-S-200
DO-228-212
Jet Stream
6.00
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Frequency
L o a d F a c to r V s F a re /p a x /k m
D e lh i - L u d h ia n a
(B u y )
1 4 .0 0
A T R 4 2 -3 2 0
S A A B -3 4 0 B
1 3 .0 0
D a s h 8 -S -3 0 0
S A A B -2 0 0 0
D O -3 2 8
1 2 .0 0
D a s h 8 -S -2 0 0
D O -2 2 8 -2 1 2
J e t S tre a m
1 1 .0 0
Fare/pax/km
1 0 .0 0
9 .0 0
8 .0 0
7 .0 0
6 .0 0
5 .0 0
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
L o a d F a c to r
2
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
F r e q u e n c y V s F a r e /p a x /k m
D e lh i - L u d h ia n a
(B u y )
1 4 .0 0
1 3 .0 0
1 2 .0 0
1 1 .0 0
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
1 0 .0 0
9 .0 0
A T R 4 2 -3 2 0
8 .0 0
S A A B -3 4 0 B
D a s h 8 -S - 3 0 0
7 .0 0 S A A B -2 0 0 0
D O -3 2 8
D a s h 8 -S - 2 0 0
6 .0 0 D O - 2 2 8 -2 1 2
J e t S tre a m
5 .0 0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
L o a d F a c to r
10
2
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
SAAB340B
10.00 Dash8-S-
300
SAAB-2000
9.00 DO-328
Dash8-S-
200
DO 228 212
Fare/Pax/km
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
10.00
9.00
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
8.00
7.00
ATR42-320
SAAB-340B
6.00
Dash8-S-300
SAAB-2000
DO-328
5.00 Dash8-S-200
DO-228-212
Jet Stream
4.00
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Frequency
2
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
L o a d F a c to r
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
16.00
14.00
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
12.00
ATR42-320
10.00
SAAB-340B
Dash8-S-300
SAAB-2000
DO-328
8.00
Dash8-S-200
DO-228-212
Jet Stream
6.00
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Frequency
A T R 4 2 -3 2 0
S A A B -3 4 0 B
D a s h 8 -S -3 0 0
12 S A A B -2 0 0 0
D O -3 2 8
D a s h 8 -S -2 0 0
D O -2 2 8 -2 1 2
10 J e t S tre a m
Frquency
2
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
L o a d F a c to r
10.00
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
F re q u e n c y V s F a re /p a x /k m
D e lh i - L u d h ia n a
(L e a s e )
1 4 .0 0
1 3 .0 0
1 2 .0 0
1 1 .0 0
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
1 0 .0 0
9 .0 0
8 .0 0 A T R 4 2 -3 2 0
S A A B -3 4 0 B
D a s h 8 -S -3 0 0
S A A B -2 0 0 0
7 .0 0
D O -3 2 8
D a s h 8 -S -2 0 0
D o -2 2 8 -2 1 2
6 .0 0
J e t S tre a m
5 .0 0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
F re q u e n cy
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
10.00
9.00
8.00
Fare/pax/km (Rs)
7.00
6.00
ATR42-320
SAAB-340B
Dash8-S-300
5.00
SAAB-2000
Do-328
Dash8-S-200
4.00
DO-228-212
Jet Stream
3.00
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Frequency
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
Load Factor
Appendix A
Data for Calculation of DOC
Aircraft SAAB-340B
MTOW (kg) 12927.0 12927.0 12927.0
MPL (kg) 3758.0 3758.0 3758.0
OEW (kg) 8035.0 8035.0 8035.0
Npax 35.0 35.0 35.0
Airframe Weight (kg) 7711.0 7711.0 7711.0
SHPto 1750.0 1750.0 1750.0
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2. www.ncdc.noaa.gov
3. www.environmental-center.com
4. newrajasthan.pragyanet.com/index.html
5. www.pragyanet.com
6. www.airportsindia.org.in/aai/int_airport.htm
7. www.indian-airlines.nic.in
8. www.indian-airlines.com
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_Rentals
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O’Higgins.