Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: China Accosts Indian Naval Ship Off Central Vietnam Carlyle A. Thayer September 1, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] 1.What,ifanything,strikesyouasunusualaboutthisincidentbetweentheIndian andChinesenavies? ANSWER:Threethingsstrikeme:first,thattheincidentwaspublicized,secondthat ChinachallengedanIndiannavalshipininternationalwaters,third,thelocationof the incident off Nha Trang where the INS Airavat had just visited the Vietnamese navalport. 2.IsitnormalforChinatoclaimterritorialwaterswithin45milesoftheVietnamese coast? ANSWER:ChineseshipsoftenclaimforeignvesselsareinChinesewaterswhenthey accostthesevesselsintheSouth ChinaSea. It isunclear on whatlegal basisChina makes this claim. There is no land feature nearby on which China could claim the waterswereterritorial. Westernnavalofficersprivatelyreportincidents,whichtheycharacterizeasbump and grind, involving Chinese naval vessels. These incidents are not publicized but theyhaveraisedconcernsthattheChinesenavyisfloutingcustomaryinternational practicewhentheyencounterforeignnavalshipsintheSouthChinaSeaandTaiwan Straits. 3.WhatisthesignificanceoftheIndianshipvisit,andmorebroadly,ofIndia'srecent militaryexchangeswithVietnam? ANSWER:Indianshipsvisitshavebeentakingplaceforwelloveradecade.Indiahas played a supportive role in assisting Vietnams naval and air modernization mainly becauseitcanassistwithsparesforSovieteraequipmentandbecauseIndiaisvery experiencedinmaintainingRussianmanufacturedequipment. GiventensionsintheSouthChinaSeaoverthelastthreeandahalfyears,andthis years incidents in particular, the visit by an Indian naval warship underscores that the international community has an interest in the safety and security of the sea linesofcommunicationthattransittheSouthChinaSea.Further,IndiaandVietnam share congruent security interests. Both want cooperative relations with China, especially good economic relations. But both are wary of Chinese military assertiveness. Indias growing defence relations with Vietnam serve both their

2 interests. From Indias point of view they open a second front and potentially distractChineseattentionfromthelandborderdisputewithIndia.Chinawillhaveto calculate that its assertiveness will only drive regional states to seek support from externalmajorpowers. 4.HowdoyouviewtheprospectsforagreeingonacodeofconductfortheS.China Sea? ANSWER:ThereisgrowingASEANpressureonChinatosignacodeofconductatthe ASEANsummitinPhnomPenhnextyearonthetenthanniversaryoftheDeclaration onConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSeathatwassignedinPhnomPenhin2002. TherealquestioniswhatwillmakeitamorebindingdocumentthantheDOC.The CodeofConductmustbehighlyspecificaboutwhatactionsareprohibitedandhave compliancemeasures.Ifitdoesnothavethestatusofaninternationaltreatyitwill be a toothless document. There is a real possibility ASEAN will opt for symbolism overeffectiveness. 5. Which area (geographical, military, or commercial) do you consider the biggest potentialflashpointintheSouthChinaSea? ANSWER:ThemostimportantpotentialflashpointisthewatersoffYulinNavalBase on Hainan Island and the deep water trench where China is likely to deploy its nucleararmedstrategicsubmarines.TheUnitedStateswillcontinuetomonitorthis areaandChinaislikelytoresistintrusionintowhatitconsidersitsterritorialwaters. The other potential flashpoints are where the Philippines and Vietnam seek to explore and then produce hydrocarbons, such as the Sampaguita gas field in Reed Bank claimed by Manila. These are the areas where exploration contracts are awardedtononChineseforeignoilcompanies. Thesecondmainpotentialareaofconcernrelatestotraditionalfishingareaswhere ChinesevesselshaveaccostedFilipinoandVietnamesefishermen.Themainareaof concern is the fishing waters off the Paracel Islands where China has been particularlysensitive.Ontheothersideofthecoin,Chinesefishermenregularlyfish inthesetraditionalwaters.Someoftheseshipscarryweaponsandareescortedby largerships.BothVietnamandthePhilippinesarebeefinguptheirnavalcapacities and this could result in misperception, misunderstanding and a clash in contested watersaroundtheSpratlyIslands.