Media Consumption

Future of
7 Driving the Media
Forces Lifecycle
Shaping Media
Source: Carat
100 Behavioral Advertising
Source: eMarketer
90

HOME MOBILE
4000

4
Internet

1
80 Digital TV 3500
70 Analogue TV Increasing Media Consumption Personalization 3000
Games
Hours per week

60 Increasing media consumption 
Humans are Media is becoming personalized. Ultimately this is 2500
Wireless intrinsically media animals. As we get greater access about user control, in enabling every possible choice in US$
50 Outdoor Media to media and content, we are discovering that our what, when, and where people consume media, and its million 2000
40 Digital Radio appetite for information and entertainment is virtually insatiable. formatting, filtering, and presentation. At the same time, real-time LIFE 1500

30

20
Analogue Radio
STORAGE
Cinema
Print
PERSONAL CLOUD
It is commonplace for people of all ages to consume multiple
media at the same time, with television, internet, newspaper,
messaging, and other media frequently overlapping.
information on viewers enables highly targeted advertising based on
behaviors, location, and other profile data. The fate of personalized
advertising will depend on how societal attitudes to privacy evolve.
STREAMING 1000

500

10
RECOMMENDATIONS 0 VIDEO
Implications: Implications: 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0
WORDS PHOTOS
TIMESHIFTI NG PLACESHIF TING Average total media consumption will exceed waking Users’ expectations for control over their media will increase.
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
hours. Most media will be consumed with partial attention. Abuse of personalized advertising will create a backlash. Some
Advertising impact will decrease. will opt-out, and others will opt-in if sufficient value is created.

2 5
Fragmentation
US Internet audience reach VID New revenue models MAG
At the same time as we are consuming more Source: comScore, Media EO AZ
US TV Fragmentation A Metrix IN
media, every existing media channel is being ER Within the current trend
R S away from subscription
E
Platform-A M
fragmented, and new ones are being added Source: Media Dynamics and Bear Sterns and towards ad-supported business models, the

DE

S
CA
Advertising.com
EM APER
P60
YSTexample of television in this chart, we watch everALL UN 14

REA
apace. In Sthe Yahoo! Network way that advertising is sold is dramatically changing.
SI
C
more television, PC
but the proliferation of new channels means O
W RE IVE Google Ad Network
As illustrated, the vast majority of the online players with the
M

PHON

e BO O K
50 12 Specific Media
U

RS TE
continually less viewer time per channel. Now that the Internet greatest reach are advertising networks, not stand-alone sites
VID

ValueClick Networks
M

O
AL
HANDHELD such as Google or Yahoo! UnbundlingPORTABLE

WSER
and mobile are creating an explosion of new channels and 10 Yahoo! sales and content is

E
40 Tribal Fusion
content, audiences are being divided into smaller and smaller PRECIPITATION
weekly Google allowing far greater scalability of content production costs.
ICTURE

8
segments. MEDIA

BRO
set usage (hrs)

L AP
The promise of micropayments for content may re-emerge
AL VIDEO

30
INTERFACES OF PARTICIPATION Casale Media Network
DI CORDER

GAME

DRIVEpm
RECOG URE
within a decade.
GITFRAMES

Implications:CENTER

TO
6 adconion media group
GEST

P
time per
AL P

Traffic Marketplace
20 Implications:

S
P
DA
4 channel (hrs) ER ER
Current mass media markets are ephemeral. AOL Media Network
C
GIT

NIT

S ES
AY AP
RE

interCLICK
REC VO will be central to the media
P L P
Advertising aggregation
S
Revenues per channel will decrease. In all except AS
MUSIC NEW
NS

10 OG IC
IO

2 MSN-Windows Live Llandscape.

I

N
D

a handful of cases, production costs will need Media companies will segment and
O

Tremor Media
LE

G
Advertising Networks

E ITION
O
24/7 Real Media

N
to scaled down. 0 0 unbundle ad sales and content creation.

E
FLAT SCREENS ADSDAQ Web Property

VID
TV
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Burst Media
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Year
% of US online population INTERFACES
Newspaper readership by age

3 6
User generated content IMM
US Source: Journalism.org, Scarborough Research

PROOBI
Source: Technorati, Flickr, Alexa, Comscore, www.internetworldstats.comEO G A E RS

LE RDS
A TI N
N Participation Generational change

M
WIRELESS O ME I 80%

SS

JE
A
350 C
N
AT ULT

VE

BO E LE TO
Early talk about consumer-generated media has become a The chart shows that each generation is fairly consistent
S

ETHERNET 70%
KEYWIR
TE

R
SIM

300 stark reality over the last two years, with an explosion of media in its media consumption patterns, however that eachTRAFFI INTE
UPnP participation across blogs, photos, videos, social networks, group behaves very differently. The average C 60% O
DE ERE BILL RAC
S audience age VI WH BO T
250 HOME A P A
HOME MEDIA
and more. The costs of quality content creation are plummeting. Already of traditional media such as television and radio continues to increase. Y
INTELLIG

50%

IV S
LIGHTI ENT

NETWORKS

ER

RD
E
a large proportion of content available is non-professional, and people’s Over the medium to long-term, generational change will result in

WE

EV
200
million

media activities are increasingly focused on participatory channels such as DIFFUSION

dramatically different profiles for media consumption and participation. 40%

ATH
PIN

NG

OF MEMES LOCATION OUTDOOR

ALERTS
social networks.
150
DIFFUSION 30%
OP

ER
COAX Implications:

PERSONA
LINK ILE
POWERLINE

TO
OF MEMES BASED MEDIA MEDIA
SH

MESSA LIZE
100 Implications: 20%
Media channels will be increasingly age-segmented. Advertisers

O B
LON
An infinite supply of content. Increased fragmentation of attention. will accelerate their shift to new media outlets. Sharemarket

M
G - F OR M 10%
50

GE D
Pro-Am (professional-amateur) content models valuations will reflect age profiles of audiences.

OF

S
0%

F
will emerge.
ER
0 N S
2005 2006 2007 2008 TIO 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
DIREC
Global IP traffic
D
TIME-BASE

7
Flickr photos (x 0.1) Number of blogs Source: Cisco 18 - 24 35 - 44 55 - 64
Facebook visitors YouTube visitors 50
45
Increasing bandwidth 25 - 34 45 - 54 65+

40 In developed countries the Internet has now shifted from dial-up to broadband in the home.
35 A rapid pace of increase in bandwidth will continue indefinitely. It will not be too long before the
30 majority of developed country homes receive over 100Mbps. At the same time mobile bandwidth is

SEA OF CONTENT
Exabytes 25 soaring, with a variety of technologies contributing to pervasive high-speed access to content.
CONVERSATION (1018 Bytes) 20 COMMENTARY
15 Implications:
MUSIC NEWS
TV / VIDEO Total IP bandwidth 10 GAMES Video on demand anywhere, anytime. Personal clouds will allow music and video collections to be accessed anywhere without local
Consumer 5
Consumer video 0 storage. The rationale for allocated media spectrum and infrastructure will fade.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License

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