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Sopot Summer Insurance & Reinsurance Days Sopot 17 June 2008 Patrizia Baur Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Agenda
Current situation Market trends Outlook
Share Poland 1996 2000 2003 2007 Non-life 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% Life 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 1.0%
Sources: Supervisory Authorities, Insurance Association, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Portfolio overview
2007
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Austria
Other
Poland
Western Europe
Accident
Poland
Motor
Property
Russia
Liability
Russia: motor hull is included in property Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Slide 4
Portfolio overview
2006
100%
(Pure) endowment, whole life Marriage & birth Accident and Health
Poland
Western Europe
Slide 5
Life profitability
40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1999 UK* 2000 2001
2002
2003
2004 France
2005
2006
2007E
Germany
Poland
Germany
Poland
Slide 6
Agenda
Current situation Market trends Impact of current credit crisis Products where to grow profitably? Distribution the role of bancassurance Outlook
Current account Government (30 May, %-chg. (April 2008, balance deficit
(2008, % of GDP) (2008, % of GDP)
Sources: Bloomberg, Oxford Economic Forecasting Ltd., Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Bulgaria
Slide 9
Poland
Russia (rhs)
Turkey
Ukraine
Source: Bloomberg
Foreign bancassurers under some pressure to sell subsidiaries (Erste Bank Vienna Insurance Group) Less aggressive acquisition strategies of foreign insurers, less aggressive expansion in CEE countries
(Re)Insurance Days Sopot 17 June 2008 Slide 10
Agenda
Current situation Market trends Impact of current credit crisis Products where to grow profitably? Distribution the role of bancassurance Outlook
Non-life total
Accident
MTPL
Motor hull
Property
Slide 12
Slide 13
Agenda
Current situation Market trends Impact of current credit crisis Products where to grow profitably? Distribution the role of bancassurance Outlook
Bancassurance is underdeveloped
Non-life insurance Life insurance
2005, except for France and Italy: 2006
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Spain Poland UK Germany Belgium France Italy
2005, except for Poland, Hungary, Czech Rep., France, Italy: 2006
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Poland Czech Rep.* Hungary France Germany* Spain Italy UK Belgium Others
Banks
Agents
Brokers
Others
Banks
Agents
Brokers
No information available for Hungary, Czech Republic Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Estimates for Hungary, Czech Republic; * new business split Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Slide 15
Low product complexity Good fit with core banking products High bank branch traffic and density Captive model?
Opportunities complexity Low product Distribution synergies Good fit with core banking products Cost advantages of bancassurance Bank branch traffic and density Risks Labour market flexibility Cultural differences
Phases Client
yesterday
today
macro segmentation
tomorrow
micro segmentation within clients target group
total of clients
Affluent clients
Channel
Branch
Brokers
Point of sale
stationary sales
branch
sales
non banking
CLIENT
home banking
Slide 17
sales
mobile sales
TV banking
Agenda
Current situation Market trends Outlook
Life
Non-life
* Russia: without short-term policies aimed at tax optimisation Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Non-life Insurance
2007
6%
BB
5%
US CH
4%
KR DE GB ESFR IT JP SG HK IE ZW ZA NA RU HR
3%
TW IL CZ
4% 2%
MW
IT US DE AT ES NZ IS NO
2%
CN TH BD VN ID BO EC DZ
0% 0.1
PL HU CZ SK MXHR OM RU
1%
VN IN BD ID
CN
RO MX
PL SK HU OM
1.0
10.0
100.0
0% 0.1
1.0
10.0
100.0
Source: Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting (Re)Insurance Days Sopot 17 June 2008 Slide 20
Poland is expected to grow at about the same speed as other CEE markets
GDP and insurance growth forecast
2008-2012, inflation-adjusted
Growth drivers Favourable (long-term) macroeconomic environment Catch-up towards EU wealth levels State to rely more on private solutions Tapping of potential farther East Underwriting discipline
Poland
Western Europe
0% GDP
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Life insurance
Non-life insurance
Slide 21
Summary
Good capitalisation and saturation in large industrial/commercial lines will intensify competition in non-life insurance. Profitable growth will be in areas where the growing cake will allow to expand without compromising on terms and conditions. In life insurance, success will very much depend if insurers manage to offer alternatives to pure investment products, capture potential resulting out of social security sector and use whole range of distribution channels Insurance products in CEE will increasingly mirror those in Western Europe.
(Re)Insurance Days Sopot 17 June 2008 Slide 22
Growth in CEE and Poland is expected to outpace Western Europe. However, differences will erode over time.
Thank you!
Patrizia_Baur@swissre.com www.swissre.com/sigma
Appendix
Statistical overview
2007 Poland Czech Republic Hungary Slovakia Slovenia Romania Russia Croatia Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus Total Eastern Europe
(Re)Insurance Days Sopot 17 June 2008 Slide 25
GDP
(EURbn)
Life insurance
(EURm) Penetration
Non-life insurance
(EURm) Penetration
305.266 127.358 101.786 54.696 33.375 117.978 898.586 37.214 92.325 69.469 33.126 1950.264
5804 1938 2008 760 609 409 441 337 110 28 11 12991
1.9% 1.5% 2.0% 1.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%
5605 2749 1602 945 1284 1706 21153 896 2423 876 231 41110
1.8% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 3.8% 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7% 2.1%
Preliminary data Russia: life insurance without short-term tax optimisation schemes Sources: WIIW, supervisory authorities, insurance associations, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
Disclaimer
The material, views and conclusions contained in this presentation are for information purposes only. Although all information used in this presentation was taken from reliable sources, Swiss Re does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of its content. All liability for the integrity, confidentiality or timeliness of this presentation or for any damages resulting from the use of information herein is expressly excluded. Under no circumstances shall Swiss Re or any of its affiliates be liable for any financial or consequential loss relating to this presentation.