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Becoming a
High-Income Nation?
Jomo K S
UKEC, Kuala Lumpur
31 July 2011
Population by location,
1957-2005 (%)
1957 1970
1990 2005
Rural
91.0
71.2
45.3
36.6
Urban
19.0
28.8
54.7
63.4
Output by sector,
1970-2009
1970
2000
2009
Agriculture
29.0%
8.7%
7.7%
Mining
13.7%
6.3%
7.7%
3.8%
3.3%
3.3%
Employment by
sector, 1970-2009
1970
2009
53.5%
12.0%
Manufacturing
8.7%
27.8%
Construction
2.7%
6.5%
32.5%
53.5%
Agriculture
Services
1990
2009
49.3%
16.5%
3.8%
Poverty,1970-2009
1970
1990
1999
2009
Total
49.3
16.5
7.5
3.8
Rural
58.6
21.1
12.4
Urban
24.6
7.1
3.4
3.9
1.4
0.7
Poorest
Employment status,
1957-2005
1957 1980 2005
Employer
Own account
worker
Employee
Unpaid family
worker
3.8
3.4
35.0
27.0 16.6
56.7 58.3 75.7
8.3 11.0
4.5
Inter-group average
income ratios,1970, 2009
1970 2009
Chinese/Malay
2.29 1.31
Chinese/Indian
1.30 1.25
Indian/Malay
1.78 1.04
Urban/Rural
2.14 1.85
Middle 40%
Bottom 40%
1970
3111
914
322
1979
4781
1411
512
1984
5610
1058
663
1989
5263
1831
750
1999
7786
2738
1074
2009
9987
3631
1440
Managers
Professionals
Technicians
Clerical
Services
Sales
Agriculture
Crafts & Trades
Production
Elementary
Total
Bumi
24.1
47.0
35.4
44.3
26.7
72.0
34.2
51.8
1970
Chin
62.9
39.5
45.9
39.6
61.7
17.3
55.9
36.6
Ind Bumi
7.8 41.9
10.8 58.6
- 64.7
17.2 59.6
14.6 59.6
11.1
9.7 84.4
- 52.6
9.6 66.5
- 70.0
10.6 62.6
2005
Chin
50.0
31.8
26.1
32.5
33.6
11.3
40.5
17.4
16.2
28.2
Ind
7.5
9.0
8.5
7.4
5.7
2.7
5.9
15.2
12.2
8.2
Employment Status
By Ethnicity, 1957 (%)
Malays Chinese Indians Others Total
Employer and
own account
worker
Unpaid family
worker
Employee
In employment
18.9
28.3
9.8
(66.1)
(28.8)
(4.1)
(1.1)
14.1
4.2
0.5
4.1
(80.0)
37.8
(30.8)
(47.3)
(17.8) (0.9)
67.6
89.6
(42.5) (22.9)
(35.7) (14.5)
14.5 35.0
8.3
(1.3)
81.4 56.7
(3.7)
(2.6)
Employment Status
By Ethnicity, 1980 (%)
Malays Chinese
Employer
Own account worker
Unpaid family worker
Employee
In employment
Indians
Others
Total
4.0
2.6
(35.5)
32.9
5.8
(51.5)
24.7
4.6
(12.3)
8.3
4.1
(0.7)
32.1
(64.5)
(31.5)
(3.2)
(0.8)
9.2
5.4
3.3
10.1
(67.9)
(26.2)
(4.9)
(1.0)
55.2
64.1
83.8
53.8
(48.3)
(36.5)
(14.6)
(0.6)
(53.6)
(35.0)
(10.7)
(0.7)
27.4
7.3
61.4
Employment Status By
Ethnicity, 2007 (%)
Bumiputera Chinese Indians
Employer
Own account worker
Unpaid family worker
Employee
In employment
Others
Total
3.9
2.5
(44.9)
21.7
8.4
(49.6)
18.5
3.0
(5.3)
10.7
0.6
(0.1)
22.9
20.3
(74.8)
5.3
(20.7)
6.4
(3.6)
3.0
(0.8)
3.7
5.4
(68.7)
(26.9)
(3.9)
(0.5)
70.5
66.7
83.3
72.8
(69.7)
(69.7)
(21.4)
(22.7)
(8.1)
(6.9)
(0.8)
(0.7)
70.5
1.2
1.0
36.7
Bumiputera ownership of
share capital, 1970-2006 %
1970 1985 1990 2000 2006
Total
Individuals
Institutions
0.8
Trust agencies
7.4
3.0
2.6
1.7
1.7
5.1
19
Pre Crisis
Pvt Consumption
Post Crisis
Gov Expenditure
Investment
20
Pre Crisis
Pvt Consumption
Gov Expenditure
Post Crisis
Investment21
Sources of growth?
Per capita growth highest
during 1971-1984
Fiscally sustained
(oil fiscal space)
Post-1984, less fiscal space
Weak exchange rate
1988-1997 high growth
Sustaining growth?
Weak Malaysian industrialist
class finance dominant
liberalization 1997-98 crisis
Slower growth since sustained
by government spending
Recovery efforts:
mainly jobs for the boys
Fiscally unsustainable
Industrial policy:
Needed but unlikely
Support learning by doing; critical
support for potentially successful
Evaluate potential competitiveness
of industries, products, processes
Selectively use industrial policy tools
Maximize use of industrial policy
tools allowed by WTO
Rentier rule
Malay/non-Malay rentseeking debilitating,
wasteful, not progressive
Redistribution not problem?
Ethnic patronage:
clientelism
Thank you
Websites:
UN-DESA www.un.org
G24 www.g24.org and
IDEAs www.ideaswebsite.org
Research papers
Policy briefs
Other documents
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