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1st Batch, BBA Program Department of Finance & Banking Jahangirnagar University, Bangladesh
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Topics Now
Topics
Statistics
Statistical Method
Speaker: Md. Abdul Ali (Student i.d: 1279)
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Statistics
Statistics
Statistics is basically a tool to obtain and analyze data to base
decisions on them
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20,00,000
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chemistry etc.
Why?
In statistical investigation, we face a tradeoff between
& every citizen Realistic but approximate method: Using a sampling method
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interpretation
product to take necessary action Clear Purpose: Determine the market share of Sunsilk minipack shampoo to reform the marketing campaign
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conclusion
Example:
Objective: Calculating average age of the supervisors of a
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Reliable
Collected from reliable source(s) using acceptable method(s)
Timeliness
Gathered from the appropriate time period
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Presenting data
Analyzing data
Interpretation of finding
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Primary
Secondary Sources
Here, data are already collected by others
Articles, publications, research papers, newspapers etc.
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Primary Sources
Here, data are collected for the first time
Done in two ways
Observation
Survey
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questions
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Sampling techniques
Probability sampling
Simple random sampling Systematic sampling Stratified sampling Cluster sampling
Nonprobability sampling
Convenience sampling Judgment sampling Quota sampling Snowball sampling
Dept. of Finance & Banking, J.U. Group 08
descending
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given
Monthly Income
No. of Businessmen
5000-10000
10000-15000 15000-20000
4000
3000 8000
20000-25000
25000-30000 Total
Dept. of Finance & Banking, J.U.
1500
3500 20000
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Pictorial presentation
Through diagrams and graphs
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Data Tabulation
Table
Presenting data in rows and columns
Year
2006 2007
2008
2009 2010 2011
67
87 83 94
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Charting Data
Charting Data
Ways to chart data
In two ways
Diagrams
Graphs
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Types of Graphs
Graphs of time series or line graphs
Time graph
Shows chronological data
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to gather
middle
Objectives
Deriving a representative value of the data set Facilitating further calculation
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Median
Mode
Geometric mean
Harmonic mean
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Arithmetic Mean
Arithmetic Mean
Obtained by adding together all the observations then
Grouped data
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X = Particular observation
N = Number of observations
Example
Mean age of 5 supervisors:
25, 38, 19, 59 and 44
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Example
Mean age of 50 workers:
Age 20-30
Workers
Midpoint X 25
X
375
15
30-40
40-50
15
20 N=50
35
45
525
900
fx=1800
X 1800 36 X
N 50
Dept. of Finance & Banking, J.U. Group 08
Median
Median
A number appearing in the middle of an ordered sequence
of value
Grouped data
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n1 Median= size of 2
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Calculation
Size of (6+1)/2= 3.5 th position Mode= (77+80)/2=78.5
Position Marks
1 2
3 4 5
65 70
77 80 88
93
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(N/2) - p.c.f. i f
N = total frequency
Dept. of Finance & Banking, J.U. Group 08
Officers
60 43
15000-20000
20000-25000
45
37 15
148
185 200
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Median L
(N/
Mode
Mode
Most available data in the data set
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Measures of Variation
Variation
Measuring the spread of the data around the mean or
median
Standard deviation
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Range
Range
Simply the difference between the highest value and lowest
value
Ungrouped Data
Range = L-S
Coefficient of range
Range = L-S
Coefficient of range
COR=(L-S)/(L+S)
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X - X or Median
N
Formula for Ungrouped Data
f X - X or Median
N
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(x x )
N
f(x x) f
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Correlation Analysis
Correlation
The relationship between two or more variables
Example:
Income and expenditure is positively related
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Correlation: Types
Types of
Three types. Based on
Direction of correlation
Positive and negative
No of dependant variable
Simple, partial and multiple
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Perfectly negative
Positive Negative No correlation
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Formula
(X X)(Y - Y) (X - X) (Y - Y)
2
When
r = 1: Perfectly positive correlation
r = -1: Perfectly negative correlation
r = 0: No correlation
r > 0: Positive correlation
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Formula
6 D2 r 1 3 N N
D = Ranking 1 Ranking 2
N = no of items/individuals/observations
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Up Next
Up Next
Forecasting
Time Series Speaker: Nawsheen Huq (i.d. 1256)
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Forecasting helps
Handle unexpected threats
Avail opportunity
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Helps in Controlling
Lighthouse to contingency plans
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Business barometers
Extrapolation
Regression analysis
Econometric models
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Example
the percentage of internet users among students of BD at present time can be compared with that of India 5 years back
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Example
The level of profitability of a newly launched product can be determined in this way.
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Practical forecasting is based on with the assistance of some index or indicator of activity.
Example:
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Here the it is assumed that, the variable will behave very much similarly as it behaved in the past.
Example:
If the average GPA of a student in previous 4 semesters was 2.5, then his future GPAs can be expected to be close to that number
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For correlated data, we can find out the change of the dependent variable based on the change of the independent one(s).
Econometric Models
Considering combined terms from economics, mathematics, and statistics, this model is prepared
Used to simulate the future state of events
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It forecasts the future, by observing the trend of chronologically presented data. Future production of a factory can be estimated by observing the past production over the time
Example,
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Four components
1. Secular trend
2. Cyclical variation
3. Seasonal variation
4. Irregular variation
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1. Linear trend
2. Non-linear trend
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2. Non-linear trend
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When the time series follows a certain repetitive pattern over the long term
Example: Business cycle
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Irregular Variation
Irregular Variation
Variations following no definite pattern
May be caused by random events
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Up Next
Coming Up
Probability theory
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Probability
Probability
A possibility of something to happen
Classical Probability
Here, it is believed that each possible outcome of an
same time Collectively exhaustive: All the probabilities of the outcomes equal to unity or 100%
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outcomes
Example:
The probability of getting tails in a toss is 0.5
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edge
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Rules of addition-1
The probability of occurring several mutually exclusive
Formula
P (A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
P (C or D or F) = P(C) + P(D) + P(F)
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different
Formula
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)
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Formula
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B)
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Formula
P(A and B) = P(A) P(B I A)
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attached to them
There are also probability distribution curves An important probability distribution curve is the normal
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of 1
normal curve
subtracting the mean from each observation then dividing them by the standard deviation
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Thank You!
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