2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation

World Wheat Supply and
Demand Situation
July 2011
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
released July 12, 2011. Projections will change over the course of the year
depending on weather and other developments.
Top Factors Affecting the Global Wheat Market in 2011/12

1. 2011/12 Production up, third largest wheat crop on record at 662 MMT
Global supplies reach record 852 MMT; 1.0 MMT greater than previous record in 2009/10
Black Sea production rebounds, reaching 101 MMT compared to 81.0 MMT in 2010/11
2. Consumption sets record for fourth consecutive year, up 2% from 2010/11

3. World wheat trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record
4. 2011 US plantings up 5% from 2010
US production falls due to lower yields; falls to 57.3 MMT from 60.1 MMT in 2010/11
Dry conditions reduce HRW production, falls 22% to 21.5 MMT
5. Cool temperatures delay spring wheat plantings in North America
Canadian planting 86% complete compared to average 96% for second week of June
US spring wheat planting 88% complete compared to average 100% through June 12
US durum plantings fall 34% from previous year
6. EU production falls due to drought conditions in Western Europe
EU production at 132.1 MMT, down 3% from 2010/11
7. World ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT
Chinas ending stocks (64.6 MMT) account for 35% of total
Rest of World ending stocks fall from 130 MMT to 118 MMT
8. Competition for acres intensifies; U.S. corn stocks at 15-year low
Environmental Protection Agency increases ethanol blend
Global corn demand reaches record 874 MMT
Production, Consumption and Trade 2010/11
USDA estimates global production at 662 MMT, 3rd largest on record
Up 2% (14.2 MMT) from 2010/11 and 3% (17.7 MMT) greater than 5-year average
Black Sea production rebounds to 101 MMT, up from 81.0 in 2010/11
Indian production reaches record 84.0 MMT, up 4% from 2010/11
Consumption to set record: up 2%
Trade expected to increase by 2%
World trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record
Import projections
Consumption rises 13.0 MMT to record 670 MMT
Middle East up 4% to 13.8 MMT
Export forecasts
Black Sea exports rebound, reaching 27.7 MMT, up from 13.9 MMT in 2010/11
Russian exports reach 12.0 MMT, up from 4.0 MMT in 2010/11 but below 5-year average of 12.8 MMT
EU exports fall 32%, from 22.0 MMT in 2010/11 to 15.0 MMT
Stocks and Price 2010/11

World beginning stocks fall, but second highest in
past 5 years
Beginning stocks down 4% (8.3 MMT) from 2010/11
US beginning stocks at 23.4 MMT, 45% above 5-year average of 16.1 MMT
Global ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT

China ending stocks reach 64.6 MMT, accounting for 35% of global ending
stocks
Rest of World stocks fall from 130 MMT to 118 MMT
U.S. farm gate prices forecasted at record

$6.60 to $8.00 /bushel ($243-$294/MT)*
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
World Production and Use

700
670
680
657
660
640
662
600
580
648
MMT
620
560
540
520
500
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
Production
07/08
Use
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

450
400
423
378
369
350
403
402
358
328
337
64
76
65
10/11
11/12
353
300
250
200
318
299
308
150
100
50
60
70
45
0
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10
Beginning Stocks
Production
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
World Wheat Supply and Demand

09/10
SUPPLY:
Beginning Stocks
Production
Supply Total
167
684
851
10/11
MMT
198
648
847
11/12
TRADE:
Exports/Imports
136
128
130
DEMAND
Food & Seed

Feed & Residual
Use Total
535
118
653
539
117
657
547
123
670
ENDING STOCKS:
198
190
182
190
662
852
World Beginning Stocks

250
200
150
117
MMT
132
120
97
100
82
17
21
50
55
13
31
25
22
48 56 48
0
91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10
Historical Five Major Exporters
Black Sea
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
Others
11/12
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio

40
35
35
30
30
29
27
25
20
20
15
10
5
0
97/98
*Ending stocks
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
World Ending Stocks

250
200
187
182
60.1
150
MMT
64.6
100
59.9
55.4
22.0
50
47.9
20.0
42.2
0
01/02
03/04
05/06
Historical 5 Majors
07/08
Black Sea
Other
09/10
China
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27.
Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
11/12
Global Ending Stocks and Price

400
250
322
200
350
300
250
MMT
150
99
120 200
108
71
100
150
82
31
24
50
20
19
13
52
42
42
31
42
100
50
0
83/84
87/88
91/92
Historical 5 Majors
95/96
Black Sea
99/00
03/04
Rest of World
07/08
11/12
HRW price
World and U.S. Wheat

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand
U.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
Canada Situation
40.0
35.0
30.0
23.2
MMT
25.0
21.5
20.0
16.5
15.0
16.0
10.0
5.0
7.8
6.2
10/11
11/12
0.0
02/03
03/04
Beginning stocks
04/05
05/06
Production
06/07
07/08
Imports
08/09
09/10
Exports
Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks

12.0
10.0
9.7
8.0
MMT
7.8
6.0
6.5
4.8
4.4
4.0
6.2
2.0
0.0
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
Australia Situation
35.0
30.0
25.0
26.0
20.0
25.0
MMT
21.9
17.0
17.5
15.0
10.0
5.0
3.6
4.1
4.2
09/10
10/11
11/12
0.0
02/03
03/04
Beginning stocks
04/05
05/06
Production
06/07
07/08
Imports
08/09
Exports
Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks

10.0
9.4
8.0
MMT
6.0
5.4
4.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.3
3.6
2.0
0.0
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
Argentina Situation
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
15.0
MMT
12.0
15.0
10.0
9.0
11.0
8.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
02/03
03/04
Beginning stocks
04/05
05/06
Production
06/07
07/08
Imports
08/09
Exports
1.3
1.4
09/10
10/11
2.5
11/12
Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks

3.0
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
MMT
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.0
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
EU-27 Situation
180
160
140
120
MMT
138.7
135.7
100
132.1
80
60
40
22.0
20
18.9
16.0
11.7
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
02/03
03/04
Beginning stocks
04/05
05/06
Production
06/07
07/08
Imports
08/09
Exports
15.0
Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks

30
27.5
25
23.4
MMT
20
15
16.0
14.2
10
11.7
12.3
0
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
Black Sea Region Situation

160
140
120
113.9
MMT
100
80
81.0
99.5
60
40
27.7
20
21.3
13.9
25.3
22.0
09/10
10/11
11/12
0
02/03
03/04
Beginning stocks
04/05
05/06
Production
06/07
07/08
Imports
08/09
Exports
The Black Sea Region includes the Former Soviet Union, excluding the Baltic States
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea
Region
Domestic use
Black Sea Exports

40
35
7.9
30
25
7.5
MMT
9.3
20
7.5
15
10
18.6
5.4
3.7
12.0
4.0
0
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
Russia
07/08
Ukraine
08/09
Kazakhstan
09/10
10/11
11/12
Black Sea Ending Stocks

30
25
25.3
22.0
20
MMT
20.0
15
15.6
13.0
10
11.4
0
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12
U.S. Situation
100
90
80
60.1
70
MMT
60
57.3
60.4
50
63.8
40
35.0
30
31.3
20
24.0
10
17.9
13.4
26.6 23.4
0
93/94
96/97
Beginning stocks
99/00
Production
02/03
05/06
Imports
Exports
08/09
Domestic Use
11/12
U.S. Ending Stocks

30
25
26.6
23.4
MMT
20
17.9
18.3
15
13.4
14.7
12.4
10
0
02/03
05/06
08/09
11/12

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand
Outlook
Major World Wheat Importers

(from all origins)
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
MMT
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Egypt
EU-27
Brazil
Indonesia Japan
10/11
Algeria
11/12
Nigeria
S. Korea
Iraq
Mexico
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

5-year average
3.5
3.0
MMT
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

2010/11 vs. 2011/12
(year-to-date)
1.2
1.0
MMT
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
2010/11
Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011
2011/12

2009/10 vs. 2010/11
4.5
4.0
3.5
MMT
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2009/10
Source: USDA FAS export sales report June 9, 2011
2010/11
World Wheat Imports

160
140
120
MMT
100
80
60
40
20
0
83/84
87/88
91/92
"Other"
Trend in other importers denoted (
95/96
China
99/00
FSU
EU-27
03/04
07/08
11/12

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand

Outlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class

70
60
53.6
2.6
4.2
5.3
Million Acres
50
56.4
1.7
4.4
8.3
40
13.0
12.9
28.6
29.1
30
20
10
0
2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
HRW
HRS
SRW
*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 30, 2011
White
Durum
U.S. Hard Red Winter

40
35
30
28
22
MMT
25
20
17
15
14
10
5
10
11
10/11
11/12
0
06/07
07/08
Beginning stocks
08/09
Production
09/10
Imports
Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring

25
20
16
14
MMT
15
10
9
5
6
0
06/07
07/08
Beginning stocks
08/09
Production
09/10
Imports
10/11
Exports
11/12
U.S. Soft Red Winter

20
15
MMT
12
10
7
0
06/07
07/08
Beginning stocks
08/09
Production
09/10
Imports
10/11
Exports
11/12
U.S. White
12
10
8
MMT
7
6
5
5
2
2
10/11
11/12
0
06/07
07/08
Beginning stocks
08/09
Production
09/10
Imports
Exports
U.S. Durum
5
0.9
4
1.0
3
MMT
2.9
1.7
2
1.2
0.8
1
0.9
1.0
10/11
11/12
0
06/07
07/08
Beginning stocks
08/09
Production
09/10
Imports
Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class

(year-to-date)
4.0
MMT
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
HRW
HRS
White
2011/12
2010/11
Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011
SRW
Durum
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class

12
10
MMT
0
HRW
HRS
05/06
06/07
SRW
07/08
SWW
08/09
09/10
Durum
11/12
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

HRW
10/11 11/12
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply Total
10.5
27.7
0.0
38.2
10.5
21.5
0.0
32.1
HRS
10/11 11/12
MMT
6.4
5.0
15.5
13.7
0.8
0.8
22.7
19.6
Domestic Use
Exports
Use Total
Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use
11.0
16.7
27.7
10.5
38%
12.8
13.9
26.6
5.4
20%
8.4
9.3
17.7
5.0
29%
7.5
7.3
14.9
4.7
32%
SRW
10/11 11/12
6.6
6.5
0.8
13.8
4.6
12.5
0.7
17.8
6.3
2.9
9.2
4.6
50%
8.3
4.5
12.8
5.0
39%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

White
10/11 11/12
Durum
10/11 11/12
Total
10/11 11/12
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Supply Total
2.2
7.5
0.2
9.9
2.3
7.9
0.2
10.4
1.0
2.9
0.9
4.8
1.0
1.7
1.0
3.6
26.6
60.1
2.7
89.4
23.4
57.3
2.7
83.5
Domestic Use
Exports
Use Total
Ending Stocks
Stocks-to-Use
2.6
5.0
7.5
2.3
31%
2.9
4.8
7.6
2.8
36%
2.7
1.2
3.8
1.0
25%
2.4
0.8
3.3
0.4
12%
30.9
35.0
65.9
23.4
36%
33.9
31.3
65.2
18.3
28%
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices

700
600
$/Metric Ton
500
400
300
200
100
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
HRW ords
Nov-09
Mar-10
HRS 14%
Jul-10
SRW
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
U.S. FOB PNW Prices

600
550
500
$/Metric Ton
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
HRW 11.5%
Nov-09
Mar-10
HRS 14%
Jul-10
SW
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
SRW and Soft White Prices

400
350
$/Metric Ton
300
250
200
150
100
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Jul-09
Nov-09
Mar-10
SW
SRW
Jul-10
Nov-10
Mar-11
Jul-11
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices

250
200
$/Metric Ton
150
100
50
-50
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
HRS 13.5
HRW 12
Jul-10
SRW
Jul-11
U.S. PNW Basis Prices

250
$/Metric Ton
200
150
100
50
0
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
HRS 14
HRW 12
Jul-10
Jul-11

Supply and Demand
Major Exporters
Import Demand
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production

3.4
3.2
65
3.0
55
2.8
45
2.6
35
2.4
25
2.2
15
2.0
92/93
95/96
98/99
01/02
Harvested Area
04/05
Production
07/08
Yield
10/11
MT/hectares
Production (MMT) and Harvested Area (mh)
75
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison

40.0
37.9
38.0
37.4
35.7
36.0
35.2
Million Hectares
34.0
32.0
30.0
31.9
31.2
30.4
31.4
30.0
28.0
26.2
26.0
24.0
24.5
23.9
23.4
22.8
22.0
21.7
20.0
90/91
93/94
96/97
Wheat
99/00
Corn
02/03
05/06
Soybeans
*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 31, 2011
08/09
11/12*
World Wheat
Production, Use and Trade
150
700
680
Production and Use (MMT)
662
145
140
648
640
135
620
130
600
125
580
120
560
115
540
110
520
105
500
100
02/03
05/06
Production
08/09
Use
Trade
11/12
Trade (MMT)
657
660
670
World Corn
120
1000
900
820 843
872 878
100
700
80
600
60
500
400
40
300
200
20
100
0
0
02/03
05/06
Production
08/09
Use
Trade
11/12
Trade (MMT)
800
World Soybeans
120
93
200
98
93
80
263
261
254
77
150
100
60
100
40
50
20
0
02/03
05/06
Production
08/09
Use
Trade
11/12
Trade (MMT)
250
264
300
PNW to Japan
Gulf to Middle East
Great Lakes to East Med
Gulf to West Africa
7/10/11
6/10/11
5/10/11
4/10/11
3/10/11
2/10/11
1/10/11
12/10/10
11/10/10
10/10/10
9/10/10
8/10/10
7/10/10
6/10/10
5/10/10
4/10/10
3/10/10
2/10/10
1/10/10
12/10/09
11/10/09
10/10/09
9/10/09
8/10/09
7/10/09
$/metric ton
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Summary
Global production climbs 2%
Production reaches 662 MMT; third largest on record
Global ending stocks decrease 4%

Stock-to-use ratio falls to 27%, down 2 percentage points from
2010/11 and lowest since 2008/09 (26%)
China ending stocks account for 35% of world total
World exporters
Black Sea production rebounds from 2010/11

World trade increases with growing demand

2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation

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2011 July - World Wheat Supply Demand Situation

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World Wheat Supply and

Top Factors Affecting the Global Wheat Market in 2011/12

2. Consumption sets record for fourth consecutive year, up 2% from 2010/11

Dry conditions reduce HRW production, falls 22% to 21.5 MMT

5. Cool temperatures delay spring wheat plantings in North America

US durum plantings fall 34% from previous year

6. EU production falls due to drought conditions in Western Europe

EU production at 132.1 MMT, down 3% from 2010/11

7. World ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT

Chinas ending stocks (64.6 MMT) account for 35% of total

8. Competition for acres intensifies; U.S. corn stocks at 15-year low

Environmental Protection Agency increases ethanol blend

Global corn demand reaches record 874 MMT

Production, Consumption and Trade 2010/11

USDA estimates global production at 662 MMT, 3rd largest on record

Black Sea production rebounds to 101 MMT, up from 81.0 in 2010/11

Indian production reaches record 84.0 MMT, up 4% from 2010/11

Consumption to set record: up 2%

Trade expected to increase by 2%

World trade projected at 130 MMT, third largest amount on record

Consumption rises 13.0 MMT to record 670 MMT

Middle East up 4% to 13.8 MMT

EU exports fall 32%, from 22.0 MMT in 2010/11 to 15.0 MMT

Stocks and Price 2010/11

Global ending stocks fall 4% to 182 MMT

U.S. farm gate prices forecasted at record

World Production and Use

Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

World Wheat Supply and Demand

Food & Seed

World Beginning Stocks

Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio

World Ending Stocks

Global Ending Stocks and Price

World and U.S. Wheat

Canada Ending Stocks

Australia Ending Stocks

Argentina Ending Stocks

EU-27 Ending Stocks

Black Sea Region Situation

Black Sea Exports

Black Sea Ending Stocks

U.S. Ending Stocks

World and U.S. Wheat

Major World Wheat Importers

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011

Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat

World Wheat Imports

Trend in other importers denoted (

World and U.S. Wheat

U.S. Situation by Class

U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class

*Source: USDA Acreage Report, June 30, 2011

U.S. Hard Red Winter

U.S. Hard Red Spring

U.S. Soft Red Winter

U.S. Wheat Sales by Class

Source: USDA FAS export sales report July 8, 2011

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand