CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY In February 2010 the U.S.

Defense Department reported, in its Quadrennial Defense Review, that climate changes which are already being observed in every region of the world could contribute to food and water scarcity and the further weakening of fragile governments, and may spur or exacerbate mass migration. Subsequent developments have underscored the urgency of these concerns. In June 2011 The New York Times reported that rapidly rising temperatures in major agricultural countries have shaved several percentage points of potential yields of wheat and corn, contributing to sharp increases in world food prices. The Times noted that recent price spikes have helped cause the largest increases in world hunger in decades and have contributed to food riots in more than 30 countries. Research is being conducted to develop more climate-resilient crop varieties, but funding for such research has been difficult to obtain. A study released in May 2011 by researchers from Stanford and Columbia found that climate changes are already exerting a considerable drag on yield growth of wheat and maize, and that without successful adaptation, and given the persistent rise in demand for maize and wheat, the sizable yield setback from climate change is likely incurring large economic and health costs. Long-term results could be even more severe. One 2009 study projected that by the end of the century average yields for some major crops could decline by 30-46% under a moderate warming scenario, and as much as 63-82% under a worst-case scenario of rapid warming. A 2011 analysis by British and Canadian scientists of weather records over three decades concluded that human-induced increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have caused a significant increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation events. A 2011 study by Princeton and University of Washington scientists found that rising global temperatures have caused a northward shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone, a band of heavy rainfall circling the tropics. The resulting diminished rainfall in some tropical areas is likely to lead to food shortages, political unrest, and ultimately geographical displacement. Changing rainfall patterns, with more frequent prolonged droughts punctuated by heavy downpours, are being observed in wide areas of Latin America, Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural lands in the developing world are being damaged by desertification in some areas, by flooding in others. Some of these effects could be offset by adaptive measures, e.g. promoting more climate-resilient agricultural techniques, but the poor countries most directly affected also have the fewest resources for adaptation.

Rising global temperatures are also projected to cause more frequent wildfires, like those which further damaged the Russian wheat crop in 2010. In the American West, e.g., a 2011 study by the University of Washington and the U.S. Forest Service estimates that an average temperature rise of 1 degree C could increase the median area of annual burn by up to sixfold. A number of studies by the Columbia University Earth Institute, the United Nations, the European Union, and CARE have warned that climate-induced agricultural damage could spur mass migrations on an unprecedented scale. Serious reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to avert a major humanitarian disaster.
For more information: Justin Gillis, A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself, The New York Times 4 June 2011 David B. Lobell, William Schlenker, and Justin Costa-Roberts, Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980, www.scienceexpress.org/5May2011/Page1/10.1126/science.1204531 Seung-Ki Min, Xuebin Zhang, Francis W. Zwiers and Gabrielle C. Hegert, Human Contribution to More Intense Precipitation Extremes, Nature 470, 378-381 (17 February 2011) David Biello, Warning: Flooding Ahead, Scientific American 304 No.5 (May 2011), p.16 Julian P. Sachs and Conor L. Myhrvold, A Shifting Band of Rain, Scientific American March 2011, 60-65 Daniel Strain, Warming Hits Corn and Wheat Yields, Science News 4 June 2011, 15 Wolfram Schlenker and Michael J. Roberts, Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields under Climate Change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 106, 15594 (2009) DeSherbinin et al., Casualties of Climate Change, Scientific American 304 No.1 (January 2011),

www.ScientificAmerican.com/jan2011/migrations
Warner et al., In Search of Shelter: Mapping the Effects of Climate Change on Human Migration and Displacement, www.ciesin.columbia.edu/documents/ClimMigr-rpt-june09.pdf European Commission, Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios Project, www.each-for.eu CARE International Climate Change Information Center, www.careclimatechange.org Up in Flames: Global Warming Could Scorch the Western U.S., Scientific American 304 No.6 (June 2011), p.92