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1.0 INTRODUCTION vehicle condition and driver behaviour etc. Attempts
Roadway safety has been a major concern for the have been made to predict the rates of accident on
general public and public agencies since crashes claim this highway albeit with limited success. The
many lives and cause substantial economic losses every applied concepts were conventional in nature
year. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), (Ezenwa, 1986; Ighile, 1990; Olamigoke, 1990;
600,000 people die and 15 million are injured in road Ogunsanya and Waziri, 1990). It is however in the
accidents each year (Flahaunt, 2004). In the European light of this and in consonance with the global trend
Union, a total of 1.2 million accidents occur every year in accident analysis that a more flexible approach
leading to more than 40,000 fatalities. The associated for the accurate prediction of accident rates on the
economic losses can reach up to 2.5% of GNP (Elvik, stated highway is proposed in this study. The
2000). In the United States alone, the annual cost of traffic objectives explicitly focused on developing a
crashes is put at $231 billion (Jiaming et al, 2007). computerized model for the prediction of accident
In Nigeria, road traffic accident (RTA) situation rates on Lagos-Ibadan Expressway taking into
and its attendant ripple effects have aggravated influence account the combined effects of explanatory
on the economy and a constant threat to the populace as accident-causing variables and also to qualitatively
the statistic over the years is quite staggering. Police assess the contribution of black spots on the
records on interstate crashes have shown that between highway to the frequency of accident occurrences.
1980 and 1989, a total of 98,168 Nigerians had died and It is hoped that this research work will facilitate
244, 864 had been injured in RTA. As a matter of fact, the the modification of existing and the formulation of
World Bank data record placed Nigeria second only to new policies aimed at limiting the carnages and
Ethiopia as the most hit in terms of traffic accident-related consequently impart positively on the lot of the
tragedies amongst the countries of sub-Saharan Africa. citizenry plying this highway.
This high number of deaths and casualties is increasingly
considered unacceptable. As a result, many countries 2.0 METHODOLOGY
have implemented policies to drastically reduce the 2.1 Study area
magnitude of road fatalities. Although the situation has Lagos-Ibadan Expressway is in the
improved in the past twenty years (Page, 2001), many Southwestern part of Nigeria. The entire length of
efforts remain to be made. the road spans 160km from Lagos State through
In Nigeria today, one of the busiest and most traffic Ogun State to Ibadan in Oyo-State. The
accident-prone is the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway. Expressway is strategic to the economic growth of
Thousands of casualties and severities are the country since it is the major link in and out of
recorded yearly on this highway. The causes of the Lagos which is the commercial nerve-centre of the
accidents range from poor state of the road to country, and therefore crucial to the transportation
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22nd International Conference of NIMechE, 2009 – Development Of A Heuristic Computer-Based Model For Accident Rate
Prediction On Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Nigeria.
of agricultural products and finished goods from The questionnaires were analysed by using an
manufacturing industries. As at the time of this autoregressive time series forecasting model of the
investigation, the highway which is a Trunk-A type form;
i.e. maintained by the Federal Government of = ……….2
Nigeria is in a dilapidated state with potholes, Where, zt is the observed response with mean
cracks, depressions, ruts, honeycombs, patches value η at forecast period t, at is the associated
etc, featuring at strategic locations generally forecast error while ø is a proportional term to the
referred to as black spots in relation to fatal crashes deviation from the mean observation. By replacing t
on the road. with t+l for lead time l, gives,
2.2 Data Collection
…………….3
Data relating to vehicular crashes were
obtained from primary and secondary sources i.e.
For any lead time, the above simplifies further to
through field surveys, observations and achival
the generalized form:
sources. Primary data based on questionnaires
treatment and focal group discussions were used
along with personal interviews held with the Federal ……… .4
Road Safety Corps (FRSC) officials, the Nigeria
Police, and people who make their livelihood along Where represents the observed explanatory
the road. The questionnaires were designed to variable contribution to the total accident rate for
determine the socio-economic characteristics of the each year. Thus, by introducing equation 4 as a
individual respondent, the causes, distribution of function of the respective explanatory variables, a
accidents and the effects of vehicle type on the unified coding system was developed to classify the
occurrence of accidents on the highway. resulting model further to which, ranking factors of
Questionnaires were administered at random to weights between 1 and 5 are attached to analyse
users of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway at Motor the effects of the explanatory variables investigated
parks, toll gates, filling stations along the road. in relation to the occurrence of the accidents.
Upon the visual examination of the highway and
correlation with accident data with respect to 3.0 RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
locations of the events; strategically-designed 3.1 Responses to Accident Information
questionnaires were administered at Ibafo, Mowe Figure 1 presents the trend in observed
and Ogere; three locations on the axis that can be responses on the causes of accidents with
regarded as black spots based on the high reference to the black spots considered in this
frequency of occurrence of accidents and fatalities study, that is; at Mowe (N06048’19.8’’,
of crashes. A total of 300 questionnaires were 0
E003 26’16.9’’), Ibafo (N06044’21.8’’,
administered altogether. 0
E003 26’16.9’’) and Ogere
(N06056’36.2’’,E003038’43.3’’) respectively. At the
2.3 Parameter estimation investigated locations, the causality of the
Accident data obtained from the Federal Road combination of poor road conditions and driver’s
Safety Corps on the Lagos-Ibadan expressway behavior on accident occurrences were significant.
showed that the occurrence of road accidents can Both DB and RC remarkably had very high
be expressed as a function of vehicle conditions inferences as shown in the plot. Also, when
(VC), driver behavior (DB), loading properties (LP), identifying the black spots at the three specified
road conditions (RC) and environmental factors locations; private cars had the highest frequency of
(EF). These were considered as explanatory involvement in accidents than any other as shown
variables in the treatment of the accident data for in Figure 2. Although the trend is marginal in
the period of 1998–2007 based on the application comparison with commercial vehicles such as
of the categorized linear regression modeling buses, it elicits the understanding that driver
approach (Berthouex and Brown 2002). Typically behavior is a significant component of the accident-
the model takes the form: causing scenario.
Y = a0 + a1*VC + a2*DB + a3*LF + a4*RC + a5*EF……...1 3.2 Autoregression model
As functions of explanatory variables with respect
Where, Y is the expected accident rate and a1, a2,
to the accident rates equations 5 and 6 were
a3, a4 and a5 are regression coefficients.
generated during the analysis representing monthly
and yearly accident profiles respectively.
2.4 Analysis of questionnaires and description Ym=8.277 + 0.818*VC+0.7183*DB+0.7196*LP+1.0052*RC+0.0075*EF…5
of explanatory variables
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Malomo B. O, Oladejo K. A, Adio, S. A and Adekoya, L.O
5.0 REFERENCES
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22nd International Conference of NIMechE, 2009 – Development Of A Heuristic Computer-Based Model For Accident Rate
Prediction On Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Nigeria.
50
Inferenceonaccident occurence
Ibafo
Mowe
Ogere
40
30
DB EF RC VC LP
Explanatory variables
70
60
Inferenceonaccident occurence
50
Ibafo
40 Mowe
Ogere
30
20
10
Private Commercial Buses Taxis Articulated/TankersMoped
Vehicle type
Fig 2.The plot of vehicle type and accident involvement at the blackspots
110
Malomo B. O, Oladejo K. A, Adio, S. A and Adekoya, L.O
111
nd
22 International Conference of NIMechE, 2009 – Development Of A Heuristic Computer-Based Model For Accident Rate
Prediction On Lagos-Ibadan Expressway, Nigeria.
2025
2020
2015
Years
2010
2005
180
2000 160
n
ito
140
nd
120
co
1995
ad
1600 100
ro
1400
1200 80
num 1000
ber 800 60
of a
ccid 600
ents
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Fig.5 Factor ranking showing flexibility of model Fig.6 Variations in road conditions and accident rates
2 01 2
2012
20 1 0
2010
2008
2008
2006
2006
Years
Years
2 00 4
2004
2 00 2
2002
20 0 0
700 2000 180
r
600
to
160
r
1998
to
ac
1998
c
5 00 140
lf
fa
ta
120
g
1996
en
in
400 1996
m
ad
1600 100
on
lo
1 4 00 3 00 1600
vir
1 20 0 1400 80
en
n um 10 0 0 200 1200
be r 800 1000 60
of a num
c c id 600 ber 800
e n ts of a 40
ccid 600
ents
1996
1996
1998
1998
2000 2000
2002 2002
2004 2004
2006 2006
2008 2008
2010 2010
2012 2012
Fig 7.Variations in loading factors and accident rates Fig.8 Variations in environmental and accident rates
112
Malomo B. O, Oladejo K. A, Adio, S. A and Adekoya, L.O
2012
2014
2010
2012
2008
2010
2006
2004 2008
yea rs
2002
Years
2006
2000
2004
1998
140 2002
1996 550
120 2000 500
n
1994
iti o
100 450
r
nd
io u
1998 400
1992
80 co
av
350
e
1300
eh
icl
1200 1996
h
300
rb
1100
ve
60
1000
ive
900 1600 250
numbe 800 1400
dr
r of 700 40 1200
acc iden 600
200
ts numb 1000
er of 800 150
ac cid
e nts 600
1992
1994
1996 1996
1998 1998
2000 2000
2002 2002
2004 2004
2006 2006
2008 2008
2010 2010
2012 2012
2014
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