Anexo 1 proyectado ER

Año 0 1 2 3 4 5
Ingresos 10400 10900 11400 11900 12400
Gastos venta 3400 3700 4000 4300 4600
EBITDA 7000 7200 7400 7600 7800
Intereses 165 175 185 194 202
Depreciacion 900 945 983 1016 1043
UAI 5935 6080 6232 6390 6555
Impuestos 1780.5 1824.0 1869.6 1917.0 1966.5
U Neta 4154.5 4256.0 4362.4 4473.0 4588.5

Anexo 1 proyectado BG
Balance
Año 0 1 2 3 4 5
Equity 6000 6375 6754 7104 7429 7734
Deuda 2000 2125 2251 2368 2477 2579
Total P+E 8000 8500 9005 9472 9906 10313

Act.Fijo 6000 7200 8400 9600 10800 12000

Depreciacion 0 900 1485 2828 3844 4887
Act.Fijo neto 6000 6300 6915 6772 6956 7113
Cap.Trabajo 2000 2200 2450 2700 2950 3200
Total activo 8000 8500 9365 9472 9906 10313

W
D 1 25% 2000 D/E
E 3 75% 6000
4 8000

Rf CP 5%
Prima 9%
Bproy 0.50
Riesgo pais 1.76%
COK 11.23%
rd Interes 8.25%
wd Deuda 25.00%
we Capital 75.00%
A. WACC 9.87%

Flujo de caja

0 1 2 3 4 5
Utilidad Neta 0 4154.5 4256 4362.4 4473 4588.5
Depreciacion 900 945 983 1016 1043
Cambios de nwc -200 -250 -250 -250 -250
Flujo 4854.5 4951.0 5095.4 5239.0 5381.5
VP 4418.5071807 4101.616445 3842.12475 3595.610477 3361.697592
B. VAN 111,458.40 deuda + capial

Country Moody's rating Default Spread Country Risk Premium Equity Risk Premium
Abu Dhabi Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
Albania B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Algeria NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Andorra (Principality of) Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Angola B3 7.63% 9.56% 14.79%
Argentina Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Armenia Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Aruba Baa1 1.87% 2.35% 7.58%
Australia Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Nigeria B2 6.46% 8.09% 13.32%
Norway Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Oman Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Pakistan B3 7.63% 9.56% 14.79%
Panama Baa1 1.87% 2.35% 7.58%
Papua New Guinea B2 6.46% 8.09% 13.32%
Paraguay Ba1 2.93% 3.67% 8.90%
Peru A3 1.41% 1.76% 6.99%
Philippines Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Poland A2 1.00% 1.25% 6.48%
Portugal Baa3 2.58% 3.23% 8.46%
Qatar Aa3 0.71% 0.89% 6.12%
United Arab Emirates Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
United Kingdom Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
United States Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Uruguay Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Uzbekistan B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Venezuela C 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Vietnam Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Yemen, Republic NA 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Zambia Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Zimbabwe NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
 Perpetuo

0.0825 0.082352941 0.082185695 0.081925676 0.081550262 8.21%

Estado de Resultados Proyectado (miles de US$)

Ingresos 10,400 10,900 11,400 11,900 12,400

Gastos de ventas 3,400 3,700 4,000 4,300 4,600

EBITDA 7,000 7,200 7,400 7,600 7,800

Intereses 165 175 185 194 202

UAI 5,935 6,080 6,232 6,390 6,555

Impuestos 1,780.5 1,824.0 1,869.6 1,917.0 1,966.5
U. Neta 4,154.50 4,256.00 4,362.40 4,473.00 4,588.50

Balance Proyectado (miles de US$)

Equity 6,000 6,375 6,754 7,104 7,429 7,734

Deuda 2,000 2,125 2,251 2,368 2,477 2,579
0.333333333 Total Pasivos 8,000 8,500 9,005 9,472 9,906 10,313

Activo Fijo 6,000 7,200 8,400 9,600 10,800 12,000

Activo Fijo Neto 6,000 6,300 6,555 6,772 6,956 7,113

Capital de Trabajo 2,000 2,200 2,450 2,700 2,950 3,200
Total activo 8,000 8,500 9,005 9,472 9,906 10,313

Diferencial de rendimientos del índice de bonos de mercados emergentes (EMBIG) / Emerging Mar
(EMBIG) Stripped Spread (puntos básicos)

Perú Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador México

2021 164 1561 278 139 253 917 353

Ene. 132 1421 265 141 216 1182 374
6 Feb. 138 1471 259 132 214 1208 357
terminal Mar. 165 1566 281 133 223 1261 356
Abr. 165 1584 269 126 220 919 346
May. 164 1546 248 132 237 735 339
Jun. 169 1513 247 139 244 758 338
Jul. 170 1596 272 144 267 778 356
5,704.39
Ago. 183 1567 286 138 277 793 362
Set. 174 1541 292 141 282 799 351
Oct. 172 1635 312 156 291 825 356
Nov 1-16 176 1728 326 151 307 836 354
 Abr. 165 1584 269 126 220 919 346
May. 164 1546 248 132 237 735 339
Jun. 169 1513 247 139 244 758 338
Jul. 170 1596 272 144 267 778 356
Ago. 183 1567 286 138 277 793 362
147,498.45
Set. 174 1541 292 141 282 799 351
92,138.85 vp terminal Oct. 172 1635 312 156 291 825 356
Nov 1-16 176 1728 326 151 307 836 354

Equity Deuda Estructura D/E BL

87404 5738.3 93142.3 0.065652602 0.5472
58237.8 281.5 58519.3 0.00483363 0.2638
um Equity Risk Premium 121160.1 0 121160.1 0 0.0959
5.96% 74938.8 0 74938.8 0 0.9856
11.84% 6116.3 4248 10364.3 0.694537547 0.6357
22.86%
8633.9 38540.5 47174.4 4.463857585 0.5393
8.03%
14.79% 4669.2 985.7 5654.9 0.211106828 0.669
22.86% 15336.9 0 15336.9 0 0.5372
10.52% 426291
7.58%
5.23%
13.32%
5.23%
10.52%
14.79%
(rm-rf) prima de riesgo
7.58%
13.32% market risk premium
8.90%
6.99%
8.03%
6.48%
8.46%
6.12%
5.96%
5.96%
5.23%
Equity Market Equity Book
8.03% Value Value Deuda Be
11.84%
Advanta 8,704.00 3,744.20 5,738.30 0.5472
27.14%
10.52% Britannia 58,237.80 5,200.40 281.50 0.2638
27.14% Glaxo 121,160.10 11,441.80 - 0.0959
22.86%
22.86% Jubilant 74,938.80 2,995.50 - 0.9856
Kwaltty 6,116.30 910.50 4,248.00 0.6357
Rei 8,966.90 23,611.80 38,540.50 0.5393
Venky 4,669.20 3,157.90 985.70 0.6690
Zydus 15,336.90 1,868.60 - 0.5372
900 12,400
300 4,600

600 7,800
194 202

390 6,555
7.0 1,966.5
.00 4,588.50

104 7,429 7,734

368 2,477 2,579
472 9,906 10,313

600 10,800 12,000

772 6,956 7,113

700 2,950 3,200
472 9,906 10,313

rgentes (EMBIG) / Emerging Market Bond Index

tos básicos)

bia Ecuador México Venezuela

3 917 353 27713

6 1182 374 23734
4 1208 357 24678
3 1261 356 25514
0 919 346 25199
7 735 339 25345
4 758 338 28886
7 778 356 28163
7 793 362 28361
2 799 351 30857
1 825 356 31881
7 836 354 32222
0 919 346 25199
7 735 339 25345
4 758 338 28886
7 778 356 28163
7 793 362 28361
2 799 351 30857
1 825 356 31881
7 836 354 32222

Bu %
0.523157351 21.85%
0.262910432 13.73%
0.0959 28.42%
0.9856 17.58%
0.427741989 2.43%
0.130748893 11.07%
0.582866963 1.33%
0.5372 3.60%
0.402843673 bu industria
Anexo 1 proyectado ER
Año 0 1 2 3 4 5
Ingresos 10400 10900 11400 11900 12400
Gastos venta 3400 3700 4000 4300 4600
EBITDA 7000 7200 7400 7600 7800
Intereses 0 0 0 0 0
Depreciacion 900 945 983 1016 1043
UAI 6100 6255 6417 6584 6757
Impuestos 1830.0 1876.5 1925.1 1975.2 2027.1
U Neta 4270.0 4378.5 4491.9 4608.8 4729.9

Anexo 1 proyectado BG
Balance
Año 0 1 2 3 4 5
Equity 6000 6375 6754 7104 7429 7734
Deuda 2000 2125 2251 2368 2477 2579
Total P+E 8000 8500 9005 9472 9906 10313

Act.Fijo 6000 7200 8400 9600 10800 12000

Depreciacion 0 900 1485 2828 3844 4887
Act.Fijo neto 6000 6300 6915 6772 6956 7113
Cap.Trabajo 2000 2200 2450 2700 2950 3200
Total activo 8000 8500 9365 9472 9906 10313

W
D 1 25% 2000 D/E
E 3 75% 6000
4 8000

Rf CP 5%
Prima 9%
Bproy 0.50
Riesgo pais 1.76%
COK 11.23%
rd Interes 0.00%
wd Deuda 25.00%
we Capital 75.00%
A. WACC 8.42%

Flujo de caja

0 1 2 3 4 5
Utilidad Neta 0 4270 4378.5 4491.9 4608.8 4729.9
Depreciacion 900 945 983 1016 1043
Cambios de nwc -200 -250 -250 -250 -250
Flujo 4970.0 5073.5 5224.9 5374.8 5522.9
VP 4468.1561482 4100.639315 3796.59125 3511.155966 3243.597417
C. VAN 84,840.69 solo capital

Country Moody's rating Default Spread Country Risk Premium Equity Risk Premium
Abu Dhabi Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
Albania B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Algeria NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Andorra (Principality of) Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Angola B3 7.63% 9.56% 14.79%
Argentina Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Armenia Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Aruba Baa1 1.87% 2.35% 7.58%
Australia Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Nigeria B2 6.46% 8.09% 13.32%
Norway Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Oman Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Pakistan B3 7.63% 9.56% 14.79%
Panama Baa1 1.87% 2.35% 7.58%
Papua New Guinea B2 6.46% 8.09% 13.32%
Paraguay Ba1 2.93% 3.67% 8.90%
Peru A3 1.41% 1.76% 6.99%
Philippines Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Poland A2 1.00% 1.25% 6.48%
Portugal Baa3 2.58% 3.23% 8.46%
Qatar Aa3 0.71% 0.89% 6.12%
United Arab Emirates Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
United Kingdom Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
United States Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Uruguay Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Uzbekistan B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Venezuela C 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Vietnam Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Yemen, Republic NA 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Zambia Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Zimbabwe NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
 Perpetuo

0 0 0 0 0 0.00%

Estado de Resultados Proyectado (miles de US$)

Ingresos 10,400 10,900 11,400 11,900 12,400

Gastos de ventas 3,400 3,700 4,000 4,300 4,600

EBITDA 7,000 7,200 7,400 7,600 7,800

Intereses 165 175 185 194 202

UAI 5,935 6,080 6,232 6,390 6,555

Impuestos 1,780.5 1,824.0 1,869.6 1,917.0 1,966.5
U. Neta 4,154.50 4,256.00 4,362.40 4,473.00 4,588.50

Balance Proyectado (miles de US$)

Equity 6,000 6,375 6,754 7,104 7,429 7,734

Deuda 2,000 2,125 2,251 2,368 2,477 2,579
0.333333333 Total Pasivos 8,000 8,500 9,005 9,472 9,906 10,313

Activo Fijo 6,000 7,200 8,400 9,600 10,800 12,000

Activo Fijo Neto 6,000 6,300 6,555 6,772 6,956 7,113

Capital de Trabajo 2,000 2,200 2,450 2,700 2,950 3,200
Total activo 8,000 8,500 9,005 9,472 9,906 10,313

Diferencial de rendimientos del índice de bonos de mercados emergentes (EMBIG) / Emerging Mar
(EMBIG) Stripped Spread (puntos básicos)

Perú Argentina Brasil Chile Colombia Ecuador México

2021 164 1561 278 139 253 917 353

Ene. 132 1421 265 141 216 1182 374
6 Feb. 138 1471 259 132 214 1208 357
terminal Mar. 165 1566 281 133 223 1261 356
Abr. 165 1584 269 126 220 919 346
May. 164 1546 248 132 237 735 339
Jun. 169 1513 247 139 244 758 338
Jul. 170 1596 272 144 267 778 356
5,854.27
Ago. 183 1567 286 138 277 793 362
Set. 174 1541 292 141 282 799 351
Oct. 172 1635 312 156 291 825 356
Nov 1-16 176 1728 326 151 307 836 354
 Abr. 165 1584 269 126 220 919 346
May. 164 1546 248 132 237 735 339
Jun. 169 1513 247 139 244 758 338
Jul. 170 1596 272 144 267 778 356
Ago. 183 1567 286 138 277 793 362
111,902.92
Set. 174 1541 292 141 282 799 351
65,720.55 vp terminal Oct. 172 1635 312 156 291 825 356
Nov 1-16 176 1728 326 151 307 836 354

Equity Deuda Estructura D/E Be

87404 5738.3 93142.3 0.065652602 0.5472
58237.8 281.5 58519.3 0.00483363 0.2638
um Equity Risk Premium 121160.1 0 121160.1 0 0.0959
5.96% 74938.8 0 74938.8 0 0.9856
11.84% 6116.3 4248 10364.3 0.694537547 0.6357
22.86%
8633.9 38540.5 47174.4 4.463857585 0.5393
8.03%
14.79% 4669.2 985.7 5654.9 0.211106828 0.669
22.86% 15336.9 0 15336.9 0 0.5372
10.52% 426291
7.58%
5.23%
13.32%
5.23%
10.52%
14.79%
(rm-rf) prima de riesgo
7.58%
13.32% market risk premium
8.90%
6.99%
8.03%
6.48%
8.46%
6.12%
5.96%
5.96%
5.23%
Equity Market Equity Book
8.03% Value Value Deuda Be
11.84%
Advanta 8,704.00 3,744.20 5,738.30 0.5472
27.14%
10.52% Britannia 58,237.80 5,200.40 281.50 0.2638
27.14% Glaxo 121,160.10 11,441.80 - 0.0959
22.86%
22.86% Jubilant 74,938.80 2,995.50 - 0.9856
Kwaltty 6,116.30 910.50 4,248.00 0.6357
Rei 8,966.90 23,611.80 38,540.50 0.5393
Venky 4,669.20 3,157.90 985.70 0.6690
Zydus 15,336.90 1,868.60 - 0.5372
900 12,400
300 4,600

600 7,800
194 202

390 6,555
7.0 1,966.5
.00 4,588.50

104 7,429 7,734

368 2,477 2,579
472 9,906 10,313

600 10,800 12,000

772 6,956 7,113

700 2,950 3,200
472 9,906 10,313

rgentes (EMBIG) / Emerging Market Bond Index

tos básicos)

bia Ecuador México Venezuela

3 917 353 27713

6 1182 374 23734
4 1208 357 24678
3 1261 356 25514
0 919 346 25199
7 735 339 25345
4 758 338 28886
7 778 356 28163
7 793 362 28361
2 799 351 30857
1 825 356 31881
7 836 354 32222
0 919 346 25199
7 735 339 25345
4 758 338 28886
7 778 356 28163
7 793 362 28361
2 799 351 30857
1 825 356 31881
7 836 354 32222

Bu %
0.523157351 21.85%
0.262910432 13.73%
0.0959 28.42%
0.9856 17.58%
0.427741989 2.43%
0.130748893 11.07%
0.582866963 1.33%
0.5372 3.60%
0.402843673 bu industria
COK Bu 15%
Rf 5.45%
Equity risk Premium 6.99%
Riesgo pais 1.76%

Empresa Be Capital Deuda D/E Bu %

Vistony 1.95 200 800 4 0.513157895 1.80%
Petroperu 2.20 1250 750 0.6 1.549295775 3.60%
Herco 1.57 50000 2500 0.05 1.516908213 94.59%
51450 4050 1.50

Cok Bu 17.69% A.
Rd 15.36% Propuesta D 66% B.
E 34%
100%
WACC 13.11% C. Solver
la estructura optima de capital es minimizar el wacc
considerando 66% en deuda y 34% en equity

d) 3 niveles de la creacion de valor?

nivel 1 roic vs cok bu
nivel 2 roic vs wacc
nivel 3 roe vs cok bl

explicacion
metodo 1 fcl usando wacc como tasa de descuento
metodo 2 fcf usando cok como tasa de descuento
metodo 3 apv
Country
Abu Dhabi
Albania
Algeria
Andorra (Principality o
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Aruba
Australia
Nigeria
Norway
Oman
Pakistan
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Paraguay
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Qatar
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
United States
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen, Republic
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Venezuela
Vietnam
Yemen, Republic
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Country Moody's rating Default Spread Country Risk Premium Equity Risk Premium
Abu Dhabi Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
Albania B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Algeria NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Andorra (Principality of) Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Angola B3 7.63% 9.56% 14.79%
Argentina Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Armenia Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Aruba Baa1 1.87% 2.35% 7.58%
Australia Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Nigeria B2 6.46% 8.09% 13.32%
Norway Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Oman Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Pakistan B3 7.63% 9.56% 14.79%
Panama Baa1 1.87% 2.35% 7.58%
Papua New Guinea B2 6.46% 8.09% 13.32%
Paraguay Ba1 2.93% 3.67% 8.90%
Peru A3 1.41% 1.76% 6.99%
Philippines Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Poland A2 1.00% 1.25% 6.48%
Portugal Baa3 2.58% 3.23% 8.46%
Qatar Aa3 0.71% 0.89% 6.12%
United Arab Emirates Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
United Kingdom Aa2 0.58% 0.73% 5.96%
United States Aaa 0.00% 0.00% 5.23%
Uruguay Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Uzbekistan B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Venezuela C 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Vietnam Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Yemen, Republic NA 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Zambia Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Zimbabwe NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Uruguay Baa2 2.23% 2.80% 8.03%
Uzbekistan B1 5.28% 6.61% 11.84%
Venezuela C 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Vietnam Ba3 4.22% 5.29% 10.52%
Yemen, Republic NA 17.50% 21.91% 27.14%
Zambia Ca 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%
Zimbabwe NA 14.08% 17.63% 22.86%