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May 23, 2011 – Confirming Directional Changes for the US Capital Markets
US Treasury yields remain low on a flight to quality. Gold needs a weekly close below $1485.7
to confirm a down trend. Crude oil has confirmed a down trend with a weekly close below
$103.35. The euro has confirmed a down trend with a weekly close below 1.4254. The Dow
Industrial Average needs a weekly close below 12,473 to confirm a down trend.
10-Year Note – (3.149) Monthly, annual and quarterly value levels are 3.757, 3.796 and 4.016 with
weekly and daily pivots at 3.170 and 3.125, and annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.690, 2.441,
and 2.322. This yield tested 3.090 overnight into Monday’s trading.
Nymex Crude Oil – ($100.04) Daily and semiannual value levels are $94.30 and $87.52 with my
annual pivots at $99.91 and $101.92, and weekly, semiannual, monthly and quarterly risky levels at
$106.55, $107.14, $119.17 and $120.52. A weekly close below the five-week modified moving
average at $103.35 keeps the weekly chart for crude oil negative.
Weekly Dow: (12,512) The weekly chart remains positive with overbought MOJO and weekly close
above the five-week modified moving average at 12,468. Today’s value level is 12,382. My annual
value level is 11,491 with weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 12,818, 13,663, 13,774
and 13,890.
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