Gold (COMEX) - Commitment of Traders 2004-2008 One look at the chart says it

all - the specs have been

300,000 thoroughly routed from the
long side as massive
liquidation has taken place
among the funds with them
also adding nearly 4,100 new
200,000 shorts.

There was net buying to the

tune of almost 14,000 as
100,000 bullion banks covered 4900
of their existing shorts while
end users and other large
commercial interests added
nearly 9000 new longs.
0
The small specs added 2100

07

08
04

04

04

05

05

06

06

06

07

08

08
05

07

/
/

/
/

9/6

9/6
new shorts and 304 new
1/ 6

5/ 6

9/ 6

1/ 6

9/ 6

1/ 6

5/ 6

9/ 6

1/ 6

1/ 6

5/ 6
5/6

5/6
longs.
-100,000
As you can see, the
speculative long side is the
lowest level it has been in a
year.
-200,000

-300,000

-400,000

-500,000
Funds Net Commercials - Net Small Specs Commercial Shorts Fund longs
Dan Norcini Houston, TX
 Commercial Activity in Comex Gold

400,000
It is interesting to note that this is the second largest commercial long
position since January of this year which is also the second largest in
more than the 4 years that the data series covers. At that time gold was
350,000 trading near $870. It then ran to over $1030 in the next two month's time.
They tend to buy on the way down and sell on the way up as they lift their
long side hedges into spec buying. Apparently there are locking in long side
coverage at current levels and doing so in pretty good size. This seems
300,000
to confirm that there is a great deal of business being done in the physical
market at current levels

250,000

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
11/6/06
11/6/04

11/6/07
11/6/05
3/6/04

9/6/04

3/6/05

7/6/05

1/6/06

5/6/06

3/6/07

7/6/07

9/6/07

1/6/08
1/6/04

5/6/04

5/6/05

9/6/05

3/6/06

7/6/06

5/6/07

3/6/08

7/6/08
7/6/04

1/6/05

9/6/06

1/6/07

5/6/08

9/6/08
Commercial Shorts - Bullion Banks Commercial Longs
 U.S. Dollar Index - Commitments of Traders (Net Positions) If you didn't feel the
Long Dollar trade
40,000 was getting
crowded last week -
this week has set a
new record for long
30,000
side spec exposure
and short side
commercial
20,000 exposure.

I would call this

situation extremely
10,000 lobsided and would
be getting quite
nervous if I was a
0 long especially
considering that
the Dollar floated
even higher to end
-10,000 this week on its
magic carpet ride,
courtesy of the
-20,000 monetary
authorities.

This is what a
-30,000 monetary authority
engineered
currency rally looks
-40,000 like when it is fully
ripe on the vine
/0 3

/0 4

/0 5

/0 6

/0 6

/0 7

/0 8
/03

/0 3

/0 4

/0 4

/05

/0 5

/0 6

/07

/0 7

/0 8

/08
06
03

04

07

08
05

and ready for

/7/

/7/
/7/

/7/
/ 7/

/ 7/
1/7

4/7

4/7

7/7

1/7

4/7

1/7

4/7

7/7

1/7

4/7

1/7

7/7
7/7

1/7

7/7

7/7

4/7
plucking
10

10

10

10
10

10
Funds Commercials Small Specs