Guerra tecnológica de EEUU y China

La 4ta revolucion industrial, es un termino que se definió en el World Economic Forum del 2016, para
referirse a la era marcada por una revolución tecnológica que involucra cambios tanto en las esferas
físicas, digitales y biológicas. Siendo así que, en un mundo en el que la tecnologia se fusiona cada vez
mas y mas con la vida humana, se ha desencadenado una guerra tecnológica entre dos potencias
económicas, que podrían dividir al mundo en 2, en su lucha por alcanzar la supremacía y dominio de la
tecnologia.

La guerra tecnológica comenzó como una disputa comercial, pero pronto se transformó en una batalla
por el liderazgo en tecnologías básicas como el 5G, la inteligencia artificial (IA) y los semiconductores. Ya
que la potencia que logre dominar en todos estos sectores, sera la que controle la Cadena de
suministros a nivel mundial.

$100 Billones de dólares fue lo que aumento el PIB de Estados Unidos cuando se consolidaron como
lideres del 4G. Y para el 5G, las expectativas son aún mayores. Se espera que el PIB aumente en $500
billones y así mismo se creen millones de empleos. De tal manera que esta carrera es una disputa por
quien tendrá el poder y el dinero.

La guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China comenzó el 6 de julio de 2018, cuando el presidente
estadounidense, Donald Trump, impuso un arancel del 25% a 34.000 millones de dólares de
importaciones chinas, alegando la necesidad de "reequilibrar" el creciente déficit comercial de Estados
Unidos con China. Se impusieron más aranceles durante 2018 y 2019. Sin embargo, la guerra comercial
pronto se vio eclipsada por una guerra tecnológica impulsada por la preocupación de EE. UU. de que
China estaba utilizando medios desleales, incluido el poder estatal y el robo de propiedad intelectual,
para lograr su objetivo de convertirse en un líder mundial en tecnologías básicas como la IA, los
semiconductores y la 5G.

Estados Unidos, con su larga historia de I+D e invención, ha sido el líder tecnológico mundial durante
décadas, pero esa posición está siendo desafiada por China, que ha puesto todo su empeño -y decenas
de miles de millones en financiación estatal- en los esfuerzos por alcanzar a Estados Unidos. Después de
que Washington comenzara a bloquear el acceso de China a tecnologías esenciales controladas por
Estados Unidos, como los semiconductores, Pekín redobló sus esfuerzos para "desamericanizar" su
cadena de suministro.

Huawei, empresa china, es actualmente aquella que lidera el 5G, y se ha convertido en una amenza
directa para el gobierno norteamericano.
THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND POSSIBLE
DISRUPTIONS
Episodes of technological revolutions have produced transformations transcending spheres of human
existence. The first industrial revolution mechanised production using water and steam power. In the
second, the discovery of electrical energy further boosted productivity. The third featured automation
of the production process using electronics and information technology; and the fourth has been
driven by technological breakthroughs in physical, digital, and biological spheres. Some drivers of
4IR include artificial intelligence, robotics, the Internet of Things (IoT), 3D printing, digital
platforms, and blockchain technologies (Schwab 2016).
Nigeria, like every other nation, faces the realities of 4IR. With a population of over 200 million
people, Nigeria is challenged with a slowdown in economic growth and high unemployment. GDP
growth has been below 2% since the 2016 economic recession. The relative contribution of sectors to
Nigeria’s economic performance has also changed over the years. While there has been growing
investment in tech start-ups and telecommunications, agriculture and manufacturing have been
growing below potential. In 2018, services accounted for 37% of GDP, agriculture 25%, trade 16%,
manufacturing and construction 13%, and crude oil and solid minerals 9%. (NBS 2018a). Despite the
expansion in some sectors, employment creation has lagged behind the fast-growing labour force. In
2018, the unemployment rate was about 23.1% while 20.2% of the labour force was underemployed.
(NBS 2018b).
The level of utilization of 4IR technologies is not currently widespread in Nigeria. But there could be
potential applications to various sectors of the economy, causing disruptions in industries across the
country. (Lou et al. 2019). IoT and drone technologies are expected to be central to the future of
agriculture. 3D printing is transforming manufacturing. Automation of jobs due to artificial
intelligence and robotics will also cause tectonic transformations in the Nigerian labour market.
Blockchains are increasingly finding applications in the financial markets and even international
trade. Digital platforms are also transforming both trade and transportation industries as well as other
markets.
While the technological revolution is poised to affect markets and segments of the Nigerian
economy, it might not radically distort market mechanisms. Market mechanisms refer to the forces of
demand and supply, the “invisible hands” regulating a free market economy. Contrary to the
misconception that capitalism (accompanying the first industrial revolution) ushered market
mechanisms, markets and market mechanisms existed long before (3rd century BC), did not arise
with the first industrial revolution, and will not disappear in the evolving “post-industrial” economy
(Lipsey 1994, 331). The impact of the fourth industrial revolution does not change the coordinating
function of market mechanisms. However, like any other shock, technological changes introduce
uncertainties and externalities, necessitating government intervention to correct these market
excesses.

TRADE, TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY AND THE

TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTION
Over the years, industrial revolutions have bolstered trade. The comparative advantage from
specialisation and mechanisation has promoted global growth, engendering international trade.
Global supply chains have also increased with the rise of the internet. The current episode of
technological change will impact trade via blockchains, digital platforms, IoT among several other
drivers of these transformations. International trade has been faster using blockchains since it
provides enough flexibility in making payments than the traditional letter of credit. These
technologies could reduce shipping and customs processing times by 16-28%, boosting global trade
by 6-11%. (Lund et al. 2019).
In Nigeria, the trade sector accounted for about 14% of her GDP in 2018 (NBS 2018a). This trend is
expected to increase with greater application of these technologies. Digital platforms like
Jumia, Konga, Alibaba, Amazon, and freelancing sites like Upwork and Fiverr are becoming more
popular since they lower transaction costs involved in the search process, and connect buyers and
sellers directly. Lund et al. (2019) estimate that with increased automation, trade in goods may
reduce while trade in services is expected to increase in the future. Since the services sector is
outperforming the manufacturing sector, this growth in trade of services is expected to contribute
largely to Nigeria’s economic growth.
On transportation, 4IR is revolutionising the industry with the application of artificial intelligence in
producing self-driving and smart cars. On-demand ride platforms have also automated and made
regular transportation services more convenient. Nigeria’s transportation industry has been a very
important sub-sector in the services sector, contributing about 4% of the sector’s output in 2018
(NBS 2018a). Digital platforms like Taxify, Uber, and Bolt are thriving in the transportation sector.
With Nigeria’s growing population, increased industrialisation and commercialisation (due to 4IR),
the demand for transport is expected to be on the increase. As firms become more competitive and
enjoy economies of scale in the industry, transport costs will also be driven down. The revolution in
the transportation and trade industry is also creating job opportunities for delivery agents, and
freelancers via these digital platforms. A closer look at the labour market disruptions is undertaken in
the next section.

LABOUR MARKET DISRUPTIONS

Along with Nigeria’s ever-increasing population, her labour force increased by 6.35% between Q3
2017 and Q3 2018. Meanwhile, employment marginally increased by 0.39%, and the unemployment
rate also increased from 18.8% to 23.1% over the same period. (NBS 2018b). While this does not
automatically translate to more job losses, it reflects that job creation has been slower than the
expansion in the labour force. 53%, 35% and 12% of total employment in 2019 were employed in
services, agriculture, and industry respectively. (World Bank 2020). There is a need to add and not
reduce jobs, and the fourth industrial revolution could exacerbate this inherent challenge.
4IR is expected to change the future of work in the country, but a pertinent question to be answered
is “Are workers going to be better off, or worse-off”? In the previous industrial revolutions, the
introduction of machines and new technologies created new jobs demanding new skill-sets.
However, lower-skilled employees were often affected: either losing their jobs or having to take
wage cuts. The impact of 4IR in the Nigerian labour market depends on whether these technologies
complement or substitute labour, and this varies from sector to sector.
Modern economic growth theories support that technological advancement often enhances growth in
aggregate output. An important indicator of the likely changes in the labour market is how the growth
in output translates to jobs (employment elasticity). PwC (2018) estimated the employment elasticity
of the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors to be -0.1%, 0.3%, and 0.5% respectively.
With businesses becoming more intense in their use of digital technologies, it is projected that there
will be job growth especially in information and communication technology (ICT). Thus, a 1%
increase in services output will on average increase employment in that sector by 0.5%. Though its
employment elasticity is less than proportionate, its impact could be large since services contribute
most to employment in Nigeria.
On the flip-side, WEF (2017) reports that about 46% of work activities in Nigeria are susceptible to
automation. It is also estimated that about 6% of employers are wary of an inadequately skilled
workforce, and this percentage is expected to increase in the future with changing the core skills
required across jobs. Nigeria is ranked as having an average capacity to adapt to these disruptions
and also averagely exposed to these future trends (compared to advanced economies). However, this
will most likely change as these technologies increasingly find applications. This necessitates the role
of the government in addressing the possible disruptions to the labour market.

POLICY RESPONSE TO RESOLVE LABOUR MARKET

DISRUPTIONS
The burden to take advantage of the fourth industrial revolution is greater on overpopulated
developing economies like Nigeria. 4IR ought to be harnessed to confront the nation’s development
challenges. However, Nigeria had not developed a national strategy specifically addressing 4IR
technologies. (Lou et al. 2019). The effects of the labour market disruptions are illustrated in two
scenarios, with policy recommendations to address them. The first case is a situation with not-so-
high unemployment but a labour market segregated into low-skill/low-pay and high-skill/high-pay
jobs (slight case); and the second is a scenario where unemployment worsens as jobs losses
significantly outstrips the new jobs created (extreme case).
To address the skills gap in the slight case, efforts should be made to prioritise education and to have
a workforce skilled enough to be complimented and not substituted by 4IR technologies. To further
enhance growth potentials, policies should be directed at promoting innovations, creating an enabling
environment for businesses to leverage on the opportunities of 4IR, supporting research and
development, adopting tax systems and regulations to ensure a smooth industry transformation.
Schwab (2016) advocated this in what he termed “agile” governance, i.e. policymakers must be able
to adapt regulations to the fast-changing environment, and collaborate closely with business and civil
societies to harness the gains from 4IR.
Passive policy responses could put the labour market in the extreme case. As more workers lose their
jobs or become underemployed, the returns on labour further lag behind that of capital. And as a
result, unemployment and income inequality worsen. To address this in the short-run, social safety
nets must be provided to those adversely affected. Over the long-run, policymakers must design
frameworks to increase occupational mobility of labour as this will enable  workers to easily transit to
where their skills are required. Policymakers must ensure that the skills gap is closed and labour can
work successfully with 4IR technologies.

CONCLUSION
The fourth industrial revolution will inevitably affect industries across economies. Given Nigeria’s
developing services sector, 4IR could greatly engender economic growth in the future. Trade,
transportation, and other market segments could benefit, and new rewarding jobs could also be
created. There are however possible challenges of workers being displaced due to automation and
widened income inequality. Nigeria must realistically anticipate, be positioned to harness the
opportunities embedded in 4IR and adopt policies to cushion the negative effects of these
technologies, towards maximising the net gains from the fourth industrial revolution. In the words of
William Arthur Ward, “The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change;
the realist adjusts the sails.”

En esta sección del ensayo, se procederá a realizar un análisis económico comparativo de China
y Estados Unidos. Las variables a estudiar serán el PIB per cápita, basado en la paridad de poder
adquisitivo a precios internacionales, la fuerza laboral total, la participación que estos dos países
tienen en el comercio mundial y el porcentaje de PIB mundial que les pertenece. Este análisis
será útil para entender cómo han ido evolucionando estas economías a lo largo del tiempo, y por
lo tanto, obtener conclusiones de si la economía china puede o no superar a la economía
estadounidense.
En el World Economic Forum del 2016, se definió el término de ‘‘4ta Revolución Industrial’’ o
‘‘Industria 4.0’’ para referirse a la era marcada por una  revolución tecnológica que involucra
cambios tanto en las esferas físicas, digitales y biológicas. 

En el mundo actual, en el cual la tecnología cada vez se fusiona más con la vida humana
y, lo que es más importante,  a un ritmo muy acelerado, la lucha por alcanzar la supremacía y
predominio tecnológico ha desencadenado una guerra tecnológica entre China y Estados Unidos.
Estas potencias económicas, buscan el liderazgo en tecnologías como el 5G, la inteligencia
artificial, semiconductores, internet de las cosas, entre otros. Esto se debe a una razón muy
sencilla, y es que la potencia que logre dominar estos sectores, será la que logre dominar la
cadena de suministros a nivel mundial. De tal manera que, si China supera a Estados Unidos en
este sector, podría superarlo económicamente. Sin embargo, ambos países tienen ventajas y
desventajas en este sector, que serán analizadas a lo largo de esta sección.