Discussion Paper presented at the DIKTI-International Summit Jakarta 16-19 December 2010.

VULNERABILITY OF MANGROVES IN INDONESIA TO CLIMATE CHANGE: a view from a mangrove ecologist

Prof. Dr. Sukristijono Sukardjo, D.Sc The Center for Oceanography, Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Jakarta, Indonesia. E-mail: s_sukardjo@yahoo.com

ABSTRACT Brief review of existing data and reports concern with Indonesian coastal resources related to climate change are presented. Not all of the climate change factors will be discussed and only sea-level rise may exert a dramatic influence on mangroves. With deal in mind that the 1 m sealevel raise will absolutely affect the mangroves, the government of Indonesia consider trends and salient characteristics of mangrove ecosystems that over best clues as to how mangroves may respond threats in future, followed by an assessment of present threats and impacts that are most likely to continue or intensify into the future. Mangroves can demonstrate persistence at timescales over which morphological evolution of shoreline occur. Thus, it is logical to assume that mangroves would continue to respond as they have over the past century.

INTRODUCTION One of the most distinctive features of Indonesia is its sheer physical size; stretching over 5,700 km from Sumatra in the west to the border with Papua New Guinea (PNG) in the east. Indonesia, with land and marine territory of about 7.7 million km2 consisting of some 17,504 islands and approximately 95,181-108,000 km of coastline (MOMAF 2007a, ANON. 2003), is forth only to Canada, USA and Russia in the length of its coastline (WORLD RESOURCE INSTITUTE 2001 cited MOMAF 2007). However, considering economic utilization, biological diversity and ecological importance of the coastal zone and its extent, Indonesia certainly ranks first among all nations of the world. These coastal areas form an important and valuable natural resource with high potential economic value, and a potentially important production area for food, and are one of the most bio-geochemically active zones of the biosphere, representing a potentially important sink or source of carbon. Throughout the Indonesian archipelago, coastal resources have been used by local communities for millennia. Pressures upon them are great to their high biological diversity and productivity (BAPPENAS 2003). These coastal resources are in high demand e.g. in the posttsunami period, the demand of mangrove forests for mitigation of tsunami impacts are worldwide (Mazda et al. 2007, Forbes & Broadhead 2007, Alongi 2008). Approximately 65% or more of Indonesia’s population, estimated to total at least 276 million by the year 2020 (BPS 2004), live adjacent or very near to the coastal zone, increasing the complexities for resource management and the likelihood of coastal degradation (Sukardjo 1999, 2002). There are 8,090 coastal villages in Indonesia with 3.91 millions households, and totaling of 16.42 millions peoples. Of which the
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majority of people (32%, 5.254 millions) within Indonesia’s coastal zones live in poverty (MOMAF 2007). In many ways, coastal zones of Indonesia typify the problems (Mimura 2006) and policy challenges presented by the processes of Global Environmental Change (GEC), Global Climate Change (GCC) and systematic development of the coastal areas themselves in Indonesia (cf. UNEP 2005, UNEP-WCMC 2006). These zones are under increasing environmental (resource exploitation/over-exploitation) pressure and are exhibiting unacceptable environmental changes as a consequence of population growth, urbanization, tourism and other multiple and often conflicting resource usage trends. Mitigation of the resource conflict and the practical adaptation of the sustainable economic development policy objective require innovative policy responses e.g., replanting the mangroves along Indonesia’s coasts (Sukardjo 2005). In the aftermath of the Great Sumatra earthquake and the tsunami, Indonesia has undertaken various investigations (See also Kathiresan & Rajendran 2005, Serigstad & Muchtar 2006, Forbes & Broadhead 2007, Iverson & Prasad 2007, UNEP 2005, UNEP-WCMC 2006), and recently the devastating along the Mentawai Islands caused by tsunami, has focused GOI attention on the role of natural barriers, such as mangroves, coral reefs and sand dunes, in protecting vulnerable coastlines and populations from destructive storm events. Indonesia has announced plans for widespread replanting of degraded and deforested mangrove areas as a means of bolstering coastal protection (Sukardjo 2005). In order to make use of the coastal zones in a sustainable way, Indonesian ministries (MOF, MOMAF, MOHA, and SMOE as lead agencies) and institutions (e.g., LIPI, BAKOSURTANAL etc. as back stopping offices) are taking much interest. Mangrove forests are the dominant ecosystem along Indonesian coastlines and are important interface in the exchange of sediment, organic materials and gases between land, atmosphere and ocean, and represent valuable resources for human being (Sukardjo 2009a). Also, mangrove ecosystems in the country are open systems, which exchange and energy with the adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. However, they are found to differ in their energy signature or the sum of all forces which dictates the types of organisms that will survive and the speed of ecological processes (Alongi 2009). Cintron and Schaeffer-Novelli (1984) have shown that the magnitude and periodicities of forcing functions such as tides, hydro-period and stresses such as cyclones, drought, salt accumulation and frost may largely determine the energy signature of a mangrove stand and therefore the floristic and faunistic composition as well as the community structure. Mangrove forests especially those that are located within estuarine lagoons, are complex and dynamic, with strong gradients in chemical composition of water induced partly by hydrodynamics processes and biological productivity. At the ecosystem level, mangrove trees dominate carbon and nitrogen flow, being among the most productive plants in the ocean (Alongi 2002). Despite this high productivity, most labile carbon fixed by the trees appears to be retained within the ecosystem (Twilley 1988). Nitrogen also appears to be efficiently assimilated and retained, due possible to the evolution of various conservation mechanisms. At the forest level, trees and microbial consortia constitute a tight energetic link in concert with crabs that as keystone species, intensively bioturbate sediments fostering microbial growth and soil conditions beneficial to tree growth (Kristensen et al. 1995, Alongi et al. 2002). Global climate has large natural variability at all time and space scales. It is known also that global warming can be caused by green-house gases. Climate change will have enormous influences on the intertidal wetland along the Indonesia’s coasts. Increases in atmospheric carbon
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dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated increases in air and sea temperatures, rising sealevel, changes in oceanic circulation, rainfall patterns and frequency and intensity of storms are highly likely to affect the physiology, ecology and ultimately the stability of coastal wetland habitats (Table 1). The intertidal position of Indonesia’s mangroves makes them particularly vulnerable to changes in sea-level, although other climate change factors will also exert a strong influence on coastal wetland communities (Table 1). Past climate change has occurred with limited human modification of the coast compared to current level s of development in Indonesia. Human activities have resulted in loss of mangroves and other coastal wetlands, disruption to connectivity, enhanced availability of nutrients, changed sediments dynamics and the creation of structures that will prevent landward migration of wetlands with sea-level rise (e.g., roads, beams, bunds and sea walls). Many of these human impacts will reduce the resilience of intertidal wetlands to climate change. A factor important to mangrove ecosystems is the extent of sea-level rise that might accompany an increase in mean global temperature. My paper examines the possible effects of 1 m sea level rise on the coasts of Indonesia during the coming century and the probable socioeconomic and policy responses and will focus on vulnerability of mangroves in Indonesia that will be possible applicable for the sustainable mangroves management e.g., Sukardjo et al. (2010), Sukardjo and Alongi (2011).

INDONESIAN MANGROVES AND CLIMATE CHANGE General effects of a sea level rise There is evidence that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases resulting from industrial and agricultural activities have been accumulating in the Earth’s atmosphere in recent decades, and that these will lead to an increase of 1.50o to 4.50oC in mean atmospheric temperature. Such an increase would result in an expansion of the volume of near-surface ocean water (the steric effect), and the partial melting of snowfields, ice sheets and glaciers, releasing water to augment the oceans. The predicted outcome is a world-wide sea level rise (Barth & Titus 1984). For example, studies by Barth & Titus (1984) have indicated the possibility that human-induced global climate changes will result in a rise of sea level: it is thought that atmospheric warming will lead to a reduction in glaciers and ice sheets and a consequent addition of water volume to the oceans, as well as to thermal expansion of ocean waters. Hoffman (1984) estimated a rise of 0.24-1.17 m (0.78-3.83 ft) by 2050, and 0.56-3.45 m (1.832.83 ft) nu 2100. According to these predictions, sea level will stand 1 m (3.3 ft) higher than it is now between 2045 (high scenario) and 2140 (conservative scenario). A global sea level rise of 1 m will greatly modify coastal environments, producing erosion and submergence, especially on low-lying sectors (Titus 1986, Bird 1986, 1988) (Table 2). Such a rise will enable the highest tides to reach levels of at least 1 m above the present limits, allowing for a possible increase in tide range as near-shore waters deepen. On most coastlines the high tide line will move landward to well beyond the 1 m contour because of initiation or intensification of erosion. The extent of erosion will depend on how the near-shore sea floor is modified by erosion or accretion as it migrates landward, and associated changes in the wave energy regime. The low tide line will also move landward, at least part of the existing intertidal area becoming permanently submerged.
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The coasts of Indonesia (beach and sandy coasts, steep and cliffed coasts, estuarine and lagoons, delta and coastal plains) The coastline of the 17,504 islands which make up Indonesia has a total length of about 95,181-108,000 km. Where the mountainous interior reaches the sea there are steep and cliffed coasts, and many of the islands are also high and steep-sided. Volcanoes and volcanic activity have influenced coastal features, the most obvious example being Krakatoa, the volcanic islands in Sunda Strait which are a legacy of an explosive eruption in 1883. Generally steep coasts have forest vegetation on rock formations that have been deeply weathered, but there are cliffs and shore platforms on sectors exposed to strong wave action. There are extensive river deltas, some of which have combined to form an alluvial coastal plain, as in northern Java. Beaches are extensive on the more exposed coastlines, especially in south-west Sumatra, southern Java, and the eastern islands: often they are backed by beach ridges, sometimes with coastal dunes, as at Parangtritis in Java. Sandy beaches have received sediment from rivers, cliff erosion, coral reef erosion, and volcanic outfall. Where they include calcareous sand they have locally been cemented to form beach rock. In some places they are backed by multiple beach ridges, which represent intermittent progradation by accretion of sand carried alongshore or in from the sea floor. These impede stream outlets, and may enclose lagoons and swamps, as on the south coast of Java east of Cilacap. Headlands usually have steep slopes mantled with weathered material, held in place by a scrub and forest cover. On low wave energy coastlines within the Indonesian archipelago actively receding cliffs are rare (Bird 1981), but occasionally there is slumping of the weathered mantle, especially after the slope foot has been undercut by storm waves. Active cliffing is seen on the more exposed southern coast of Sumatra, Java and the islands to the east (Lombok, Sumba, Sumbawa). The larger rivers in Indonesia have high water and sediment yields to the sea, and only their lower reaches are estuarine. Many Indonesian deltas are still growing relatively quickly, with shorelines prograding up to 120 m/year. Progradation has been aided in Java by increased fluvial sediment yields following the clearance of forests in the hinterland. However, several of these deltas show sectors of erosion, especially where the river mouth has been diverted naturally or by canal cutting. There are fringing coral reefs on headlands and islands where the shores are not occupied by mangroves and mudflats, and outlying patch reefs (often surmounted by sandy islands) are numerous within the Indonesian archipelago. Wave action is generally weak within the Indonesian archipelago, but is stronger on coasts exposed to ocean swell from the Indian Ocean to the south-west and the Philippines Sea to the north-east, and on coasts exposed to south-easterly and north-easterly trade winds. Tropical cyclones do not occur in Indonesia, but swell transmitted from them occasionally washes the south coast of Java. Tides are generally small (<2m), but increase to >6m on the south coast of Irian Jaya. Tsunamis are generated by earthquakes or volcanic eruptions: in 1883 the Krakatoa explosion produced waves up to 30m high on tee west coast of Java. Mangrove coasts in Indonesia
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Most of today’s mangroves rests upon the remains of their past – a reflection of the ebb and flow of Earth’s history. The current position of Indonesia’s mangrove forests is a legacy of the Holocene (Yulianto et al. 2004, 2005). Mangroves grow luxuriantly on low-lying sectors of the coasts of Indonesia which are not exposed to strong wave action (Sukardjo 1980). Also, mangroves occupying low-relief islands and/or carbonate settings, where rates of sediment supply and available upland space are ordinarily low, such as on small islands of Natuna Sea, Maluku and Nusa Tenggara, are typical small island mangrove assemblage. Mangroves thrive in a tidal environment where adaptation to change in sea-level over long timescales is the rule rather than the exception. The ability of mangroves to successfully adapt to change in sea-level, as already noted, depends on accretion rate relative to rate of sealevel change. Rise of mean sea-level (MSL) has an immediate and direct effect on ecosystems of the intertidal zone, with decline in influence of terrestrial processes at all locations, and increase in influence of marine processes. It has been envisaged that species with specific tolerances within the tidal spectrum will migrate landward (Hekstra 1989) as their former habitats become increasingly marine. The conventional wisdom concerning Indonesian mangroves and global climate change focuses almost exclusively on sea level rise as the most critical factor. Interpolation from the results of Clark and Primus (1987) for Indonesia as major areas of mangrove in the world (Spalding et al. 2010) again show coherent rises averaging 110 cm, or 89 cm/100 years. The predicted possible rates of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise of 100-200 cm/100 years make it inevitable that most Indonesian mangroves will collapse as viable coastal ecosystems. Accepting the notion that Indonesian mangroves along macro-tidal (>4m) coastlines, and/or in areas adjacent to significant river input, are the least vulnerable to the impact of sea-level rise (cf. Woodroffe 1995, Schaeffer-Novelli et al. 2002, McLeod and Salm 2006), and Sulawesi, Halmahera, eastern coasts of Sumatra, and West Java are identified as most vulnerable. However, the environmental diversity of Indonesian mangroves or mangrove forests (cf. Thom 1982, Woodroffe 1987) suggests that various factors in addition to sea-level rise contribute towards their ability to maintain extent, location and zonal organization during sea-level rise. Clearly, some Indonesian mangroves will survive and perhaps even thrive with the predicted changes in climate (Table 1). But it is just as clear that some won’t survive. Given all of the confounding responses by Indonesian mangroves to increase in humidity, CO2, and sealevel, the most realistic scenario is to delimit the least and most vulnerable forests, an exercise that has been done for tropical rainforest (Cramer et al. 2004, Sukardjo 2010).

CONCLUDING REMARKS: my views The predicted global sea-level rise will cause major problems in coastal areas in Indonesia, particularly severe in the low-lying areas. For example, rising sea levels due to climate change and the consequent rising temperature pose a grave threat to mangroves. Large areas of coastal mangroves in Indonesia could be lost if sea levels continue to rise due to the expansion of the oceans and melting of polar ice caps. Disruption of established intertidal forests and relocation on formerly more terrestrial surfaces as these become inundated by the rising sea may not be so simple, with alteration of ecological and sedimentological processes in different islands.
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Mangrove populations are not static. For example, knowledge of habitat change in an area involving changing patterns of sedimentation would clearly strengthen the hand of an ecologist seeking to study community structure. From a geomorphic point of view, succession is potentially demonstrable where sedimentary regression has occurred. In terms of the array of habitats colonized by mangroves it represents one type of habitat change where either continuous or episodic mud deposition is the dominant process. The mangrove succession of species continues and the inner part of the mangrove fills with sediment and the water depth decreases. So the new species can replace the species that grow in the deeper water. This process continues until either the seaward boundary of the mangroves is damaged by man or by natural force. It appears that mangrove succession may occur where a steady input of mud facilitates shoreline progradation. Mangrove may progress landwards at a rate determined by the rate of sea-level rise, the rate of vertical accretion, and slope and space at the landward edge of each island in Indonesia. Zonal patterns of plants and animals will be altered slightly and erosion at the seaward front will increase (UNEP 1994). The ability of mangroves to accommodate future sea-level rise in Indonesia will likely depend on factors such as tidal range, sediment supply and tree species composition. These factors are likely to be magnified on islands of both low- and high-relief and in Nusa Tenggara where rates of sediment supply, available upland space and mangrove growth rates are usually low (Cf. Ellison & Stoddart 1991, Parkinson et al. 1994, Semeniuk 1994, Alongi & de Carvalho 2008). In assessing mangroves response to the scenario of predicted sea-level rise in ensuing decades we need to consider the sensitivity of the thresholds which govern the transition from expansive to refuge mode in mangroves, indifferent environmental conditions of coastal district (Kabupaten) of each island in Indonesia (See also Box 1: Evaluation of physical features of coasts for replanting mangrove). With 17,504 islands and their location Indonesia posses diversified environmental settings and tides characters. Consequently, for example, the presumed rise in sea-level by as much as 12 cm (IPCC 2001) is difficult to evaluate owing to past and recent variations in local relative sea level (Rull et al. 1999). The effective management of mangroves in the environmentally sensitive zone due to climate change requires their accurate and expedient mapping (Scale 1:50,000 and 1:25,000), which is ideally accomplished from remotely sensed data thanks to the unique characteristics of mangrove stands. Also, in view of the increasing salinization of coastal zones due to climate change and sea-level rise; there is a real need to develop salt-tolerant crop varieties that can be grown in the coastal areas. The economic, political and management implication of the collapse of Indonesian mangroves due to climate changes (if the prediction of sea-level rise are correct) (Table 1, Boxes 1 and 2) are considerable, not least because traditional methods of coastal protection (such as construction of sea-walls and similar protection works) are inimical to the ecological requirements of mangroves. Controls of timber exploitation in Indonesia and other potentially disruptive uses can, under the circumstances we have described, have only a marginal effect in offsetting the consequences of rising sea-level. Mangroves occur on most coastlines of Indonesia, where their significance in the life of human population associated with them, their function in coastal sediment stabilization, as well as their intrinsic scientific importance as ecosystems and recorders of biotic diversity, indicates that particular attention be paid to their survival. It is difficult to generalize about the effect of climate change on mangrove ecosystems in Indonesia as each system is very much the product of local topographical, climatic and anthropological influences. Also, the severity of these impacts will vary in relation to regional differences in climate change (IPCC 2001). It is in the context of Tables 1, 2, 3 and 4, Boxes 1
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and 2; general suggestions can be evaluated by research (for major issues by all GOI agencies concern with the climate changes) as follow: 1. More information is required on patterns and rates of natural and human change on the coasts of Indonesia at the present time (at least maps of scale 1:50,000). 2. More information is needed on changes in the relative levels of land and sea on the coasts of Indonesia (based on maps scale 1:25,000 at Kabupaten level), including the extent and scale of land subsidence as well as trends in sea-level determined from tide gauge data. 3. Land-use are required for coastal areas in Indonesia, accompanied by assessments of the economic returns from such activities as shrimp farming and salt manufacture as well as fishing. 4. Detailed surveys (maps of 1:25,000) at Kabupaten level are required for each type of coastline (beaches and beach ridges, steep and cliffed coasts, estuaries and lagoons, deltas and coastal plains, mangrove coasts and former mangrove coasts) to estimate the extent and effects of a sea-level rise that is at first gradual, attaining 12 to 18 cm by the year 2030 and then accelerating to reach 1 m by the year 2090. 5. On the basis of para 4, estimates are needed of the economic losses that will result from the predicted submergence and erosion by the sea, the number of people disadvantaged and displaced, and the impacts these socio-economic changes will have on the immediate hinterland and other areas islands where resettlement may occur. 6. Also on the basis para 4, an attempt should be made to predict possible alternative land uses for areas behind submerged and eroded coastal areas. 7. Assessments are required of the preferred pattern and extent of sea wall construction to prevent coastal submergence and erosion, and the likely costs of such engineering works. 8. More data is needed on the techniques of moving intertidal and near-shore mud deposits onshore, or to site off eroding coastlines, as a means of preventing erosion and submerge, and of maintaining coastal land areas by artificially raising them. 9. Assessments should be made of the possibilities and problems of retaining more fresh water inland as a means of promoting aquaculture, and of diminishing river flooding and sea-level rise in Indonesia. 10. Existing policies of land and resource use in coastal areas e.g., the sustainable mangroves management, should reviewed in terms of the predicted 1m sea-level rise during the coming century in Indonesia

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Kristensen, E., M. Holmer, GT. Banta, MH. Jensen and K. Hansen. 1995. Carbon, nitrogen and sulfur cycling in sediments of the Ao Nam Bor mangrove forest Phuket, Thailand: a review. Res. Bull. Phuket Mar. Biol. Cent. 60:37-64. McLeod, E and RV. Salm. 2006. Managing mangrove for resilience to climate change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. 64pp. Mazda, Y., E. Wolanski and PV. Ridd. 2007. The role of physical processes in mangrove environments: manual for the preservation and utilization of mangrove ecosystems. TERRABUB, Tokyo. 598pp. Mimura, N. 2006. State of the environment in the Asia and Pacific coastal zones and effects of global changes. In: N. Harvey (ed.), Global change and integrated coastal zone management, 17-38. Springer, Dordrecht. Parkinson, RW., RD. deLaune and JR. White. 1994. Holocene sea-level rise and the fate of mangrove forests within the wider Carribean region. Journal of Coastal Research 10:1077-1086. Rull, V., T. Vegas-Vilarrubia and NE. de Pernia. 1999. Palynological record of an early-mid Holocene mangrove in eastern Venezuela: Implications for sea-level rise and disturbance history. Journal of Coastal Research 15:496-504. Schaeffer-Novelli, Y., G. Cintron-Molero and MLG. Soares. 2002. Mangroves as indicators of sea-level change in the muddy coasts of the world. In: T. Healy, Y. Wang, JA. Healy (eds.), Muddy coasts of the world: processes, deposits and function, 245-262. .Elsevier, Amsterdam. Semeniuk, V. 1994. Predicting the effect of sea-level rise on mangroves in northwestern Australia. Journal of Coastal research 10:1050-1076. Serigstad, B and M. Muchtar (eds.). 2006. Proceedings Seminar and Workshop on Post-tsunami Expedition, Bukittinggi28 November-4 December 2005. RCFO-LIPI Jakarta. 150pp. Spalding, M., M. Kainuma and L. Collins. 2010. World atlas of mangroves. Earthscan, UK and USA. 319pp. Sukardjo, S. 2010. Indonesian tropical rainforests and climate change. The Jakarta Post, Wednesday, July 28, 2010: p.7. Sukardjo, S. 2009a. Mangroves for national development and conservation in Indonesia: challenges for the future. Marine Research in Indonesia 34(1):47-61. Sukardjo, S. 2009b. Moving toward marine based development. The Jakarta Post, Thursday, December 24, 2009: p.7. Sukardjo, S. 2007. Indonesian mangroves and global warming. The Jakarta Post, Wednesday, December 12, 2007: p7. Sukardjo, S. 2005. Replanting the mangroves along Indonesia’s coasts. The Jakarta Post, Saturday, April 30, 2005: p.6. Sukardjo, S. 2002. Integrated coastal zone management: a view from a mangrove ecologist. Southeast Asian Studies 40(2):200-218. Sukardjo, S. 1999. Integrated coastal zone management in Indonesia. In: W. Solomons, RK. Turner, LD. de Lacerda and S. Ramachandran (eds.), Prespectives on ICZM, 227-232. Springer Germany. Sukardjo, S. 1980. The mangrove ecosystem of the northern coast of West Java. In: ECF. Bird and A. Soegiarto (eds.), Proceedings of the Jakarta Workshop on Coastal Resources Management, 54-64. The United Nations University, Tokyo.

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Sukardjo, S and DM. Alongi. 2011. Mangroves of the South China Sea: ecology and human impacts on Indonesia’s forests. Nova Science Publisher, USA. Inpress Sukardjo, S., Suwahyuono, M. Yulianto and GB. Saputro. 2010. Indonesian mangrovemap 1:1,000,000 and its biodiversity for carbon tracking: a ground-truthing case study. Paper presented at the 4th GEOSS Asia-Pacific Symposium, Bali Indonesia 10-12 March 2010. 16pp. Thom, BC. 1982. Mangrove ecology: a morphological perspective. In: BF. Clough (ed.), Mangrove ecosystems in Australia, 56-62. Canberra: Australian National University Press. Titus, JG. 1986. The causes and effects of sea-level rise. In: JG. Titus (ed.), Changes in stratospheric ozone and global climate 1:219-248. US Environment Protection Agency, Washington DC. Twilley, RR. 1988. Coupling of mangroves to the productivity of estuarine and coastal waters. In: BO. Jansson (ed.), Coastal-offshore interactions. Coastal and Estuarine Studies Vol.22:155-180. Springer Berlin. UNEP. 2005. After the tsunami: rapid environmental assessment. UNEP Geneva. 140pp. UNEP. 1994. Assessment and monitoring of climate change impacts on mangrove ecosystems. UNEP Regional Seas Reports and studies No. 154. Nairobi, Kenya: UNEP. 62pp. UNEP-WCMC. 2006. In the front line: shorelineprotection and other ecosystem services from mangroves and coral reefs. UNEP-WCMC, Cambridge. 33pp. Yulianto, E., WS. Sukapti, AT. Rahardjo, D. Noeradi, DA. Siregar, P. Suparan and K. Hirakawa. 2004. Mangroves shoreline responses to Holocene environmental change, Makassar strait, Indonesia. Rev. Palaeobot. Palynol. 131:251-268. Yulianto, E., AT. Rahardjo, D. Noeradi, DA. Siregar, P. Suparan and K. Hirakawa. 2005. A Holocene pollen record of vegetation and coastal environmental changes in the coastal swamp forest at Batulicin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia. Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 25:1-8. Woodroffe, CD. 1987. Pacific islands mangroves: distribution and environmental setting. Pacific Science 41:166-185. Woodroffe, CD. 1995. Response of tide-dominated mangroves shoreline in northern Australia to anticipated sea-level rise. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 20:65-85. Woodroffe, CD. 2002. Coasts: form, process and evolution. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 623pp.

Table 1. Predicted effects of climate change factors on mangroves and key references (Source: Alongi 2008 and 2009): a summary for Indonesia.
Climate change Altered ocean circulation patterns Increased air and sea temperature Processes affected 1. Dispersal 2. Gene flow 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. Respiration Photosynthesis Productivity Photosynthesis Respiration Likely impact Change in community structure References Duke et al. 1998, Benzie 1999 Clough and Sim 1989, Cheeseman et al. 1991, 1997, Cheeseman 1994 Ball et al. 1997

Reduced productivity at low latitudes and increased winter productivity at high latitudes Increased productivity, but dependent on other limiting factors (salinity,

Enhanced CO2

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UVB radiation

Rising sea level

3. 4. 1. 2. 3. 1. 2. 3.

Biomass allocation Productivity Morphology Photosynthesis Productivity Forest cover Productivity Recruitment

humidity, nutrient) Few major effects Lovelock et al. 1992, Day and Neale 2002 Ellison and Stoddart 1991, Woodroffe 1995, Morris et al. 2002, Semeniuk 1994, Cahoon et al. 2003, Rogers et al. 2005b Woodroffe and Grime 1999, Baldwin et al. 2001, Cahoon et al. 2003 Semeniuk 1994

Forest loss seaward, Migration landward, but dependent on sediment inputs and other factors (see Table 3) and human modification to the landscape, Loss of salt marshes and salt flats Reduced forest cover

Extreme storms

1. 2. 3. 4. 1. 2.

Increased and wind

wave

Forest growth Recruitment reduced Reduced sediment retention Subsidence Sedimentation Recruitment

Reduced rainfall

1. 2. 3.

Reduction in sediment supply Reduced ground water Salinisation

Reduced humidity

1. 2.

Photosynthesis Productivity

Change in forest coverage, depending on whether coasts are accreting or eroding (interaction with sediment stabilization from seagrass loss) Loss of surface elevation relative to sea level, Mangrove retreat to landward, Mangrove invasion of salt marsh and freshwater wetlands, Reduced photosynthesis, Reduced productivity, Species turnover, Reduced diversity, Forest losses Reduced productivity, Species turnover, Loss of diversity

Rogers et al. 2005a, b, Whelan et al. 2005, Smith and Duke 1987

Enhanced rainfall

1. 2. 3. 4.

Increased sedimentation Enhanced ground water Less saline habitats Productivity

Maintain elevation relative to sea level Maintenance of surface elevation Increased diversity Increased productivity Increased recruitment

Ball et al. 1997, Clough and Sim 1989, Cheeseman et al. 1991, Cheeseman 1994 Rogers et al. 2005a, Whelan et al. 2005, Krauss et al. 2003. Smith and Duke 1987

Table 2. The general effects of coastal submergence (Source: Bird 1986, 1988, Woodroffe 2002) that applicable for Indonesia. 1. On cliffed coasts submergence is likely to accelerate coastline recession, except on outcrops of hard rock formations, where the high and low tide lines will simply move up the cliff face. Existing shore platforms and abrasion ramps will disappear beneath the sea. 2. The shores of deltas and coastal plains will retreat, except where they are maintained by coastal sedimentation. 3. Beaches will be narrowed, and beach erosion will become much more extensive and severe than it is now.
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4. Inlets, embayments, and estuaries will be enlarged and deepened, and increasing salinity penetration will cause a regression of coastal ecosystems: where possible, mangrove and salt marsh communities will move back into terrain presently occupied by freshwater vegetation. 5. Coastal lagoons will also become larger and deeper, but the enclosing barriers may transgress landward on to them. If the barriers are submerged, or destroyed by erosion, the lagoons will become coastal inlets or embayment’s. 6. Low-lying areas on coastal plains, such as sebkhas (saline depressions now subject to occasional marine flooding) on arid coasts, will be flooded to form permanent lagoons. 7. Upward growth of coral and associated organisms will be stimulated on fringing biogenic reefs, keeping pace with the marine transgression or lagging somewhat behind it (Neumann and Macintyre 1985). 8. Erosion, structural damage, and marine flooding caused by storm surges or tsunamis will intensify because of the greater heights of waves arriving through deepening coastal waters. 9. Water tables will rise in coastal regions, and soil and water salinity will be augmented. Table 3. Summary of magnitude of some of the ecosystem services provided by mangroves. The value of fisheries habitat and sediment trapping is considered for seaward fringing mangroves (low intertidal) and high intertidal. Mg= mega gram or 1,000,000 g
Ecosystem service Fisheries Seaward fringe High intertidal Stocks Rate of ecosystem service or productivity Prawns 450 to1000 kg per year References and assumptions

Fish 20 to290 kg per ha Fish 6 kg per ha

Robertson and Blaber 1993, Blaber 2002 Mazumder et al. 2005, salt marsh, reported as 0.56 fish per m2 (assuming 1 fish = 1 gram) Furukawa et al. 1997, Saenger 2002, Alongi et al. 2005 Furukawa et al. 1997 - 5 g per m2 per tide, assume tidal inundation 20% of each year

Sediment trapping Seaward fringe High intertidal

50 to 600 Mg per ha per year 4 Mg per ha per year

Nutrient and carbon retention and cycling Carbon storage

385 Mg C per ha

3000 to 3500 kg per ha per year

Nitrogen storage

20 Mg N per ha

140 to 170 kg per ha per year TOC: 2640 kg C per ha per year. DOC: 500-1500 kg per ha per year Total 35 kg per ha per year. DON 25 kg per ha per year. PON 18 kg per ha per year

Carbon export

Chimura et al. 2003 (reported as 0.0055 grams C per cm3 – assume soils are 1 m deep and average bulk density of 0.7 grams per cm3 Lovelock unpublished data derived from ratio of C:N of 20 in sediment organic matter Dittmar et al. 2006, Twilley et al. 1992, Ayukai et al. 1998 Alongi et al. 1992

Nitrogen export

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Table 4. Outline of some of the major ecosystem services provided by mangroves within Indonesia and the processes potentially impacted by climate change Ecological services Habitat Nursery for fauna Sediment trapping Carbon storage in sediments and biomass Nutrient cycling Hydrological damping Impact Fisheries and diversity Fisheries and diversity Water quality Atmospheric carbon cycling Water quality and coastal waters productivity Water quality, protection from storms, erosion and tsunamis

Box. 1. Evaluation of physical features of coasts for replanting mangrove during the process of climate change especially 1m MSL rise in Indonesia (Map scale 1:25,000): Socio-economic, political and management regimes. 1. The planting and management of mangroves cannot be separated from coastal zone resource use plans as a whole. Further it is not possible to separate a replanting scheme from mangrove forest management in general, because after it has been planted the area has to be continually managed. 2. All areas are not suitable for mangroves. Even in favorable areas, if they are replanted without management, the resource would be soon lost (e.g., ATM in Pekalongan). It is therefore, essential to select replanting areas that will justify the effort for both replanting and management. Coastal stability Substrate Freshwater Adjacent area Topography Coast character Reef face shape Sea climate Tide Width Subsidence, emergence, stable Type, texture, area size, depth, stability (erosion, deposition) Sediment, nutrients, circulation, flood River delta, mudflat, forest, marsh (sedges and grasses), industrial, agriculture, mangroves, seagrass area, or coastal road and housing Slope seaward area, within area, landward area (slope as percent) Embayment, mild seas, exposed coast, and coastal projection Concave reef face, straight reef face, convex reef face Mild seas, moderate seas, occasional storm waves, large swell, and monsoons Frequency, amplitude Minimum width, protection zone for erosion control, tidal zone, green belt, buffer zone, rule-of-thumb

Box 2. Policy failures in term ICZM for 1m MSL rise issue in Indonesia. 1. Failure to tackle cross-sectoral management issues (MOF, MOMAF, MOHA, SMOE,
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2. 3. 4. 5.

Bakosurtanal, LIPI, Badan Pertanahan Nasional, Dewan Perubahan Iklim, Dewan Maritim Nasional, PemDa etc). Lack of cross-sector consultation and stakeholders’ consensus in the development of strategies and policies. Failure to manage resource-use conflicts and to devote resources to uses that yield the optimum benefit. Failure to establish institutional and provide the resources necessary for effective enforcement, and Failure to demonstrate the contribution of coastal and marine areas to national socioeconomic development (Sukardjo 2009b).

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