Está en la página 1de 8

Predicción de la concentración de linfocitos T CD4 en sangre periférica con base en la teoría de la probabilidad

ARTICULO ORIGINAL

Predicción de la concentración de linfocitos T


CD4 en sangre periférica con base en la teoría
de la probabilidad. Aplicación clínica en
poblaciones de leucocitos, linfocitos y CD4
de pacientes con VIH
T CD4 Lymphocytes Prediction Based on the Theory of Probability.
Clinical application on leukocytes, lymphocytes and CD4 populations of
HIV patients
-DYLHU5RGUtJXH]6LJQHG3ULHWR3HGUR%HUQDO&DUORV3pUH]&DWDOLQD&RUUHD/XLVDÈOYDUH]-XDQ%UDYR
1DWDOLD3HUGRPRÈOYDUR)DFFLQL

Resumen
Introducción. 6HKDQGHVDUUROODGRPRGHORVSDUDODSUHGLFFLyQGHODWDVDGHGLVPLQXFLyQGHFpOXODV&'HQSDFLHQWHVFRQ9,+VLGDFRQEDVHHQ
UHGHVQHXUDOHV\WDPELpQHQODYDULDELOLGDGGHODGLVPLQXFLyQGHORVUHFXHQWRVGH&'HQSDFLHQWHVVHURSRVLWLYRV\VHURQHJDWLYRVFRQHOUHFXUVR
GHPpWRGRVHSLGHPLROyJLFRV
Objetivo. 3UHGHFLUODSREODFLyQGHOLQIRFLWRV7&'DSDUWLUGHODLQIRUPDFLyQGHOFXDGURKHPiWLFRVREUHOHXFRFLWRV\OLQIRFLWRVPHGLDQWHODWHRUtD
GHODSUREDELOLGDG
Métodos. 6HHYDOXDURQORVFXDGURVKHPiWLFRVGHVLHWHFDVRVSDUWLFXODUHVGHWHUPLQDQGRODFDQWLGDGWRWDOGHOHXFRFLWRV\OLQIRFLWRV\ODFDQWLGDGGH
OLQIRFLWRV&'SRUPHGLRGHFLWRPHWUtDGHÁXMR$SDUWLUGHXQWUDEDMRSUHYLRVHGHVDUUROOyXQDLQGXFFLyQFRQODTXHVHGHWHUPLQDURQORVFRQMXQWRV
$%&\'FRQEDVHHQORVFXDOHVVHFDOFXOyODSUREDELOLGDGGHDSDULFLyQGHFRPELQDFLRQHVHVSHFtÀFDVGHYDORUHVGHOHXFRFLWRVOLQIRFLWRV\&'
HQUDQJRVGHOHXFRFLWRVSDUDFDVRV
Resultado.6HSUHGLFHTXHORVUDQJRVGHOHXFRFLWRVLQIHULRUHVD\SRUPPGHVDQJUHSHULIpULFDVHDVRFLDQDPHQRVGHOLQIRFLWRV
&'SRU˜OFRQXQDSUREDELOLGDGGH\UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH$PHGLGDTXHGLVPLQX\HODFDQWLGDGGHODVSREODFLRQHVGHOHXFRFLWRVHOSRUFHQWDMH
GHDFLHUWRVHQWUHODVWUHVPHGLGDVHVPiVHIHFWLYR
Conclusión./DWHRUtDGHODSUREDELOLGDGUHYHOyXQDDXWRRUJDQL]DFLyQPDWHPiWLFDGHODVSREODFLRQHVFHOXODUHVHVWXGLDGDVTXHSHUPLWLyGHVDUUR-
OODUSUHGLFFLRQHVFOtQLFDVSDUDHOQ~PHURGHFpOXODV&'DSDUWLUGHOFXDGURKHPiWLFRGLVPLQX\HQGRORVFRVWRV\GHGXFLHQGRORVUHVXOWDGRVGHOD
FLWRPHWUtDGHÁXMR
Palabras clave: SUREDELOLGDG9,+VLGD&'FXDGURKHPiWLFRFLWRPHWUtDGHÁXMR

Abstract
Background:0RGHOVIRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIWKH&'GHFUHDVHUDWHLQ9,+$,'6SDWLHQWVKDYHEHHQGHYHORSHGZLWKQHXUDOQHWZRUNVDQGDOVRIRUWKH
SUHGLFWLRQRIWKHYDULDELOLW\LQ&'FRXQWVGHFUHDVHLQVHURSRVLWLYHDQGVHURQHJDWLYHSDWLHQWVZLWKHSLGHPLRORJLFDOPRGHOV
Objective:WRSUHGLFWWKH7&'O\PSKRF\WHSRSXODWLRQEHJLQQLQJZLWKWKH&RPSOHWH%ORRG&RXQW &%& LQIRUPDWLRQRIOHXFRF\WHVDQGO\PSKRF\WHV
WKURXJKSUREDELOLVWLFWKHRULHV
Methods: 6HYHQ&%&RISDUWLFXODUFDVHVZHUHHYDOXDWHGE\GHWHUPLQLQJWKHWRWDOFRXQWRIOHXFRF\WHVDQGO\PSKRF\WHVDQGWKHproportion of&'
/\PSKRF\WHVE\ÁRZF\WRPHWU\%DVHGRQDSUHYLRXVZRUNDQLQGXFWLRQZDVGHYHORSHGZLWKWKDWLQGXFWLRQWKHVHWV$%&DQG'ZHUHGHWHUPLQHG
%DVHGRQWKDWVHWVZHHVWDEOLVKHGWKHSUREDELOLW\RIDSDULWLRQRIVSHFLÀFFRPELQDWLRQVRIOHXFRF\WHV/\PSKRF\WHVDQV&'YDOXHVLQUDQJHVRI
OHXFRF\WHVLQFDVHV
Results:LWLVSUHGLFWHGWKDWWKHOHXFRF\WHVUDQJHVORZHUWKDQDQGSHUFXELFPLOLPHWHURISHULSKHUDOEORRGDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKOHVVWKDQ
&'SHUPLFUROLWHU ZLWKDSUREDELOLW\RIDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\$VWKHTXDQWLW\RISRSXODWLRQVGLPLQLVKHVWKHVXFFHVVSHUFHQWDJHEHWZHHQWKH
WKUHHPHDVXUHVLVPRUHHIIHFWLYH
Conclusion: 7KH SUREDELOLW\ WKHRU\ UHYHDOHG D PDWKHPDWLFDO VHOIRUJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKH VWXGLHG FHOOXODU SRSXODWLRQV DOORZLQJ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI
SUHGLFWLRQVLQDFOLQLFDOOHYHOIRUWKH&'QXPEHUIURPWKH&%&GLPLQLVKLQJFRVWVDQGGHGXFWLQJWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHÁRZF\WRPHWU\
Key words:3UREDELOLW\9,+$,'6&'&%&ÁRZF\WRPHWU\

*UXSR,QVLJKW)DFXOWDGGH0HGLFLQD8QLYHUVLGDG0LOLWDU1XHYD 5HFLELGR$FHSWDGR
*UDQDGD&HQWURGH,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV&OtQLFDGHO&RXQWU\ &RUUHVSRQGHQFLD-DYLHU5RGUtJXH]*UXSR,QVLJKW)DFXOWDG
%RJRWi'&&RORPELD GH0HGLFLQD8QLYHUVLGDG0LOLWDU1XHYD*UDQDGD&HQWURGH
)DFXOWDGGH0HGLFLQD8QLYHUVLGDG0LOLWDU1XHYD*UDQDGD ,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV&OtQLFDGHO&RXQWU\%RJRWi'&&RORPELD
%RJRWi'&&RORPELD 7HOpIRQR'LUHFFLyQHOHFWUyQLFDJUXSRLQVLJKW#
3RQWLILFLD8QLYHUVLGDG-DYHULDQD%RJRWi'&&RORPELD \DKRRHV

,QIHFWLR   
Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Bernal P, et al

Introducción :LOOLDPVHVWDEOHFLySDWURQHVGHYDULDFLyQGHORV
UHFXHQWRVGH&'SDUDLQGLYLGXRV\SDUDSREOD-
(O VtQGURPH GH LQPXQRGHÀFLHQFLD DGTXLULGD HV FLRQHVFRQEDVHHQXQPRGHORHSLGHPLROyJLFR
XQDHQIHUPHGDGFDUDFWHUL]DGDSRUXQDLQPXQR- GHVDUUROODGR HQ FDVRV FRQ 9,+VLGD \ VLQ pO  
VXSUHVLyQSURJUHVLYDSURGXFLGDSRUHOUHWURYLUXV ORV FXDOHV DO VHU DSOLFDGRV HQ =DPELD \ 6XGi-
9,+ HO FXDO DIHFWD EiVLFDPHQWH D ODV FpOXODV 7 IULFD SUHVHQWDURQ XQD SUHFLVLyQ GH   \ 
\ORVPDFUyIDJRVTXHH[SUHVDQHO&'DGHPiV UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH(VWDPHWRGRORJtDVHDSOLFy
GHORVJDQJOLRVOLQIiWLFRV\ODVFpOXODVGHQGUtWLFDV D RWURV GDWRV SXEOLFDGRV SRVWHULRUPHQWH SDUD
IROLFXODUHV   SUHGHFLU OD GLVWULEXFLyQ GH OD WDVD GH GLVPLQX-
FLyQGHOFRQWHRGHFpOXODV&'FRQORVYDORUHV
6HOHSXHGHKDFHUVHJXLPLHQWRDODYDQFHGHODHQ- GHWUHVFRKRUWHVGHSHUVRQDVFRQ9,+HQ(VWDGRV
IHUPHGDGSRUHOQ~PHURWRWDOGHOLQIRFLWRV\FRQ 8QLGRVVHHQFRQWUyTXHODGLVWULEXFLyQGHOFRQ-
HOQ~PHURGHOLQIRFLWRV&'SUHVHQWHVHQODVDQ- WHRGHFpOXODV&'\ODGLVWULEXFLyQGHWLHPSRV
JUH/RVYDORUHVWRWDOHVGHOHXFRFLWRV\OLQIRFLWRV se GHVXSHUYLYHQFLDWHQtDQGHODYDULDELOLGDG
REWLHQHQIiFLOPHQWHSRUVXEDMRFRVWRDSDUWLUGHO HQODWDVDGHGLVPLQXFLyQGHGLFKDVFpOXODVRE-
FXDGURKHPiWLFR6LQHPEDUJRSDUDHVWDEOHFHUOD VHUYDGDHQWUHLQGLYLGXRV  
SREODFLyQGHOLQIRFLWRV&'VHUHTXLHUHXQH[DPHQ
GLIHUHQWHODFLWRPHWUtDGHÁXMRGHDOWRFRVWRWDQWR 6H KDQ GHVDUUROODGR DOJRULWPRV HQ DSUHQGL]DMH
SRUORVHTXLSRV\UHDFWLYRVQHFHVDULRVFRPRSRUHO GHPiTXLQDVFRQUHGHVQHXUDOHVFRQSUHGLFFLR-
SHUVRQDOQHFHVDULRSDUDOOHYDUORDFDERORTXHOR QHV GH OD FDUJD YLUDO GH SDFLHQWHV FRQ 9,+ ED-
FRQYLHUWHHQXQH[DPHQGHPX\EDMDFREHUWXUDHQ VDGDVHQHOJHQRWLSR\GDWRVGHOWUDWDPLHQWR\
ORVSDtVHVHQGHVDUUROOR   VHKDREWHQLGRXQDH[DFWLWXGGH  \

 'HO PLVPR PRGR VH KD SUHGLFKR HO p[LWR R
3DUDHODxRGHPLOORQHVGHSHUVRQDVHV- HOIUDFDVRGHWUDWDPLHQWRVPHGLDQWHDOJRULWPRV
WDEDQLQIHFWDGDVSRUHO9,+\VHUHSRUWDURQPL- TXHLQFOX\HQODUHVSXHVWDGLFRWyPLFDGHOYLUXV  
OORQHVGHPXHUWHVSRUVLGD(VWDGRV8QLGRVHVXQR FRQXQDSUHFLVLyQGHDVtFRPRODVFDUDFWH-
GHORVSDtVHVTXHKDUHSRUWDGRPD\RUQ~PHURGH UtVWLFDVJHQRWtSLFDVGHO9,+HQUHVSXHVWDDOWUDWD-
FDVRVGH9,+VHJ~QHOLQIRUPHHSLGHPLROyJLFRGH PLHQWRDQWLUUHWURYLUDOFRPELQDGR  6LQHPEDU-
2186,'$FRQ·SHUVRQDVHQSURPHGLR\ JR HO REMHWLYR GH HVWRV PRGHORV GHVDUUROODGRV
FRQFDVRVGHPXHUWHVSRUODPLVPDFDXVD QRHVODSUHGLFFLyQGHOFRQWHRGHFpOXODV&'
SDUDHO  6LQHPEDUJRHOÉIULFDVXEVDKDULDQD
KDSHUPDQHFLGRFRPRODUHJLyQPiVDIHFWDGDGHO 5HFLHQWHPHQWHVHHVWDEOHFLyXQPpWRGRSUHGLFWRU
PXQGRHQODDFWXDOLGDGWLHQHFHUFDGHPLOOR- FRQEDVHHQODWHRUtDGHORVFRQMXQWRVDFWXDOPHQ-
QHVGHSHUVRQDVLQIHFWDGDV WHHQSURFHVRGHSXEOLFDFLyQ  PHGLDQWHHOFXDO
VHREWXYRXQSRUFHQWDMHGHDFLHUWRHQWUH\
6HKDREVHUYDGRTXHORVSDFLHQWHVFRQPHQRVGH SDUDUDQJRVLQIHULRUHVDORTXHHYL-
 OLQIRFLWRV HQ WRWDO VXHOHQ WHQHU PHQRV GH GHQFLDTXHDPHGLGDTXHGLVPLQX\HODFDQWLGDG
OLQIRFLWRV&'njO\TXHORVTXHWLHQHQPiVGH GHOHXFRFLWRVHOSRUFHQWDMHGHDFLHUWRVGHODSUH-
OLQIRFLWRVHQWRWDOVXHOHQWHQHUPiVGH GLFFLyQGHOLQIRFLWRV&'HVPiVHIHFWLYD
OLQIRFLWRV&'njO6HKDQGHVDUUROODGRPRGHORVDX-
WRPDWL]DGRVSDUDODSUHGLFFLyQGHODWDVDGHGLVPL- /DWHRUtDGHODSUREDELOLGDGHYDO~DODSRVLEOHSUH-
QXFLyQGHOLQIRFLWRV7&'FRQEDVHHQDOJRULWPRV VHQWDFLyQ GH HYHQWRV   PHGLDQWH OD PHGLGD GH
HVSHFtÀFRVTXHSDUWHQGHOYDORUGHODFDUJDYLUDO\ SUREDELOLGDGTXHHQDOJXQRVFDVRVFRUUHVSRQGHD
HOQ~PHURGHVHPDQDVUHVSHFWRDOLQLFLRGHOFRQ- ODIUHFXHQFLDUHODWLYD  pVWDVHFDOFXODWHQLHQGRHQ
WHRGHFpOXODV&'TXHORJUDQHOGHH[DFWL- FXHQWDHOQ~PHURGHYHFHVTXHVHSUHVHQWDXQUH-
WXGHQVXVSUHGLFFLRQHV   VXOWDGRHQSDUWLFXODUGHXQH[SHULPHQWR\GLYLGLpQ-

 $62&,$&,Ï1&2/20%,$1$'(,1)(&72/2*Ë$ ,QIHFWLR  


Predicción de la concentración de linfocitos T CD4 en sangre periférica con base en la teoría de la probabilidad

GRORSRUHOQ~PHURGHYHFHVTXHVHUHSLWLyHOH[- Conjuntos:
SHULPHQWR(VWDUD]yQWHQGUiYDORUHVHQWUH\   $^ [\] [! A\! `
XQDSUREDELOLGDGGHFHURLQGLFDTXHHVHUHVXOWDGR %^ [\] [! A]! `
HVSHFtÀFRQRVHSUHVHQWDUiPLHQWUDVTXHHOLQGLFD &^ [\] [A\ `
TXHVHSUHVHQWDUiFRQWRGDVHJXULGDG/DDSOLFDFLyQ '^ [\] [A] `
GHODWHRUtDGHODSUREDELOLGDGDFDVRVFOtQLFRVHV- 'RQGH [ \ ]  VH GHÀQH FRPR XQD WULSOHWD GH
SHFtÀFRVSHUPLWLUiFXDQWLÀFDUGHIRUPDREMHWLYD\ YDORUHVGRQGH[UHSUHVHQWDHOQ~PHURGHOHXFR-
UHSURGXFLEOHODSUREDELOLGDGGHSUHGHFLUHOFRQWHR FLWRV\HOQ~PHURGHOLQIRFLWRV\]HOFRQWHRGH
GHOLQIRFLWRV&'ORFXDOWLHQHXQLPSDFWRFOtQLFR OLQIRFLWRV7&'  
PX\DOWRHVSHFLDOPHQWHHQORVSDtVHVHQGHVDUUROOR
Procedimiento
(OSURSyVLWRGHHVWHWUDEDMRIXHGHVDUUROODUXQD
SUHGLFFLyQPDWHPiWLFDGHOQ~PHURGHOLQIRFLWRV ,QLFLDOPHQWHVHREWXYLHURQORVGDWRVGHOFXDGUR
7&'FRQ ORVGDWRVWRWDOHVGH OHXFRFLWRV\OLQIR- KHPiWLFR\GHODFLWRPHWULDGHÁXMRGHSD-
FLWRVGHOFXDGURKHPiWLFRFRQEDVHHQODWHRUtD FLHQWHV GHO DUFKLYR SHUVRQDO GH XQ LQIHFWyORJR
GHODSUREDELOLGDG H[SHUWRSRVWHULRUPHQWHWHQLHQGRHQFXHQWDODV
GLVWULEXFLRQHVGHODVWULSOHWDVGHYDORUHVORVYD-
ORUHVGHOHXFRFLWRVPPOLQIRFLWRVPP\FpOX-
Metodología
ODV&'˜O\ODVFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVQXPpULFDVUHSUH-
VHQWDWLYDVGHWRGDVGLVWULEXFLRQHVVHHVFRJLHURQ
Definiciones
VLHWHFDVRVFRPRSURWRWLSRVSDUDGHVDUUROODUXQD
LQGXFFLyQHQEXVFDGHSDUiPHWURVPDWHPiWLFRV
Tripletas de valores: RUJDQL]DFLyQ QXPpULFD UH-
SUHGLFWRUHVGHHVWDVGLVWULEXFLRQHV
SUHVHQWDGDSRU [\] HQGRQGH[UHSUHVHQWDHO
Q~PHURGHOHXFRFLWRV\HOQ~PHURGHOLQIRFLWRV
&RQ EDVH HQ XQ HVWXGLR SUHYLR   D SDUWLU GH
\]HOFRQWHRGHFpOXODV&'SDUDXQGHWHUPLQD-
HVWDLQGXFFLyQ\GHDFXHUGRFRQODVREVHUYDFLR-
GRSDFLHQWH   QHVKHFKDVGHORVFDVRVHVFRJLGRVVHGHÀQLHURQ
ORVUDQJRVGHOHXFRFLWRV\VHJHQHUDURQFXDWUR
Probabilidad de un conjunto para un rango de FRQMXQWRVTXHUHXQtDQFDUDFWHUtVWLFDVHVSHFtÀFDV
leucocitos: ODSUREDELOLGDGGHXQFRQMXQWR$SDUD GHO Q~PHUR GH OHXFRFLWRVPP UHVSHFWR D OLQ-
XQ UDQJR GHWHUPLQDGR GH OHXFRFLWRV VH GHÀQH IRFLWRVPP \ UHVSHFWR D FpOXODV &'˜O pVWDV
FRPRODUD]yQHQWUHODFDQWLGDGGHWULSOHWDVGH DQDOL]DGDVFRQODWHRUtDGHODSUREDELOLGDGSHU-
YDORUHVGHHVHUDQJRGHOHXFRFLWRVFRQWHQLGDVHQ PLWHQ HVWDEOHFHU UHODFLRQHV PDWHPiWLFDV HQWUH
HOFRQMXQWR\HOWRWDOGHWULSOHWDVHVWXGLDGDVHQ ODVSREODFLRQHVFHOXODUHV
HVHUDQJRWDO\FRPRDSDUHFHHQODHFXDFLyQ
(VSHFtÀFDPHQWHSDUDKDOODUODVUHODFLRQHVHQWUH
1~PHURGHWULSOHWDVGHXQUDQJRGHOHXFRFLWRVTXH ODVFDQWLGDGHVGHOLQIRFLWRVPP\FpOXODV&'
SHUWHQHFHQDOFRQMXQWR$ ˜O UHVSHFWR D OHXFRFLWRVPP VH UHDOL]DURQ ODV
P(A) = RSHUDFLRQHV $8& \ %8' UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH \ VH
 7RGDVODVWULSODVGHOUDQJR
HVWDEOHFLy OD LQWHUVHFFLyQ GH HVWRV GRV ~OWLPRV
FRQMXQWRV3RVWHULRUPHQWHHQORVFDVRVUHV-
Rangos de leucocitos: UDQJRVGHOHXFRFLWRV WDQWHV VH HYDOXy OD SUREDELOLGDG GH KDOODU XQD
LQLFLDQGRFRQKDVWDORVYDORUHVPD- WULSOHWDGHYDORUHVHQORVFRQMXQWRV$8&\%8'
\RUHVGHFRUUHVSRQGHQDXQVRORUDQJR \HQVXLQWHUVHFFLyQSDUDFDGDXQRGHORVRFKR
\ORVYDORUHVPHQRUHVGHFRQVWLWX\HQRWUR UDQJRVGHOHXFRFLWRVSHUPLWLHQGRKDOODUORVYD-
UDQJR   ORUHVSUHGLFWRUHVSUREDEOHVGHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWR

,QIHFWLR   
Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Bernal P, et al

HVWXGLDGR 3RVWHULRUPHQWH VH HVWXGLy TXp WDQ Tabla 1. 5HFXHQWRV GH OHXFRFLWRV \ OLQIRFLWRV por mm GH VDQJUH
SHULIpULFD\GHOLQIRFLWRV7&'˜OGHGHORVSDFLHQWHVHYDOXDGRV
GHVYLDGR HVWDED HO FRPSRUWDPLHQWR GHO IHQy- RUGHQDGRVVHJ~QHOQ~PHURGHOHXFRFLWRV6HKDQVRPEUHDGRHQJULVORV
PHQR UHVSHFWR D XQ IHQyPHQR FRQ FRPSRUWD- YDORUHVTXHQRFRUUHVSRQGHQDQLQJXQRGHORVFRQMXQWRVHVWDEOHFLGRV
PLHQWR GH SUREDELOLGDGHV HTXLYDOHQWHV GHWHU- Carga
Total de Total de Conteo de
PLQDQGR OD GHVYLDFLyQ GH FDGD SUREDELOLGDG N°
leucocitos linfocitos células CD4
viral
(log)
PHGLGDUHVSHFWRDTXHHVHOYDORUGHSURED-
ELOLGDGTXHLQGLFDODLJXDOGDGHQODSRVLELOLGDG     

GH RFXUUHQFLD GH HYHQWRV FRQVLGHUDQGR TXH     
ORVYDORUHVGHSUREDELOLGDGFRQXQDGHVYLDFLyQ
    
PHGLD FXDGUiWLFD GHO RUGHQ GH  se asocian
DSUREDELOLGDGHVHTXLYDOHQWHVPLHQWUDVTXHORV     

TXH SUHVHQWHQ XQD GHVYLDFLyQ PHGLD FXDGUiWL-     
FDGHORUGHQDGHVHFRQVLGHUDQFRPSRUWD-
    
PLHQWRVFDUJDGRVGHODSUREDELOLGDG
    

(VWH WUDEDMR FXPSOH FRQ ODV QRUPDV FLHQWtÀFDV     
WpFQLFDV \ DGPLQLVWUDWLYDV SDUD OD LQYHVWLJDFLyQ
    
HQ VDOXG EDVDGD HQ OD 5HVROXFLyQ 1R 
GH\HVSHFtÀFDPHQWHFRQHO7tWXORUH-     

IHUHQWHDODLQYHVWLJDFLyQHQVHUHVKXPDQRVDO     


HVWDUFODVLÀFDGRHQODFDWHJRUtDGHLQYHVWLJDFLyQ
    
VLQULHVJRSXHVVHKDFHQFiOFXORVPDWHPiWLFRV
VREUHUHVXOWDGRVGHH[iPHQHVGHODSUiFWLFDFOt-     

QLFDTXHKDQVLGRSUHVFULWRVPpGLFDPHQWH\TXH     


REYLDPHQWHQRDIHFWDQDORVSDFLHQWHVWDPELpQ
    
VHUHVSHWDQVXLQWHJULGDG\DQRQLPDWR
    

Resultados     

    


(Q ORV  SDFLHQWHV HYDOXDGRV ORV YDORUHV GH
OHXFRFLWRV HQ VDQJUH SHULIpULFD se encontraron     

HQWUH\por mmORVYDORUHVWRWD-     


OHVGHOLQIRFLWRVRVFLODURQHQWUH\ por
mm\ORVUHFXHQWRVGHFpOXODV&'YDULDURQHQ-
WUH\SRU˜O WDEOD  TXHGHVFULEHHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHORVOLQIRFLWRV7
&'VHHQFRQWUDEDHQWUH\PLHQWUDVTXHOD
/DV SUREDELOLGDGHV SDUD WRGRV ORV FDVRV IXH- SUREDELOLGDGGHODVFRQGLFLRQHVHVWDEOHFLGDVSDUD
URQ GH  SDUD HO FRQMXQWR $8& GH  SDUD OLQIRFLWRV \ FpOXODV &' FRQMXQWDPHQWH HYDOXD-
HO FRQMXQWR %8' \ GH  SDUD HO FRQMXQWR GDHQHOFRQMXQWR $8& ଳ %8' RVFLOyHQWUH
$8& ଳ %8'  WDEOD  \FRQYDORUHVVXSHULRUHVDHQFLQFRGHORV
RFKR UDQJRV HYDOXDGRV 6H REVHUYy XQ DXPHQWR
$OHYDOXDUODVSUREDELOLGDGHVGHORVFRQMXQWRVHV- SURJUHVLYRHQODVSUREDELOLGDGHVGHSHUWHQHQFLDDO
WDEOHFLGRVSDUDFDGDUDQJRVHHQFRQWUyTXHSUH- FRQMXQWR $8& ଳ %8' GHVGHORVUDQJRVLQIHULRUHV
VHQWDEDQYDORUHVHQWUH\3DUDHOFRQMXQWR DGHWDOPRGRTXHSDUDORVUDQJRVLQIHULRUHV
$8&TXHGHVFULEHHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHORVOLQ- D\VHSUHGLFHQYDORUHVLQIHULRUHVD
IRFLWRVVHHQFRQWUyTXHODVSUREDELOLGDGHVVHHQ- FpOXODV&'FRQXQSRUFHQWDMHGHHIHFWLYLGDGGH
FRQWUDEDQ HQWUH  \  SDUD HO FRQMXQWR %8' \UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH

 $62&,$&,Ï1&2/20%,$1$'(,1)(&72/2*Ë$ ,QIHFWLR  


Predicción de la concentración de linfocitos T CD4 en sangre periférica con base en la teoría de la probabilidad

Tabla 2.)UHFXHQFLD\SUREDELOLGDGGHHOHPHQWRVTXHSHUWHQHFHQDORVFRQMXQWRV
HVWDEOHFLGRVSDUDFDGDUDQJR\SDUDWRGRVORVSDFLHQWHV

AUC BUD $8& ଳ %8'


Leucocitos Casos (n)
No. P No. P No. P

RPiV       

D       

D       

D       

D       

D       

D       

RPHQRV       

7RWDO       

/RV YDORUHV GH OD GHVYLDFLyQ PHGLD FXDGUiWLFD GHO SUREOHPD HV DSOLFDEOH D OD FOtQLFD LQGHSHQ-
SDUDHOFRQMXQWR$8&VHHQFRQWUDURQHQWUH GLHQWHPHQWH GH FRQVLGHUDFLRQHV GH HGDG VH[R
\  SDUD HO FRQMXQWR %8' HQWUH  \  \ WLSRGHWUDWDPLHQWRFDUJDYLUDORKHPRJORELQDXQ
SDUDHOFRQMXQWR $8& ଳ %8' HQWUH\ UHVXOWDGRGHDOWRLPSDFWRHQHODVSHFWRFOtQLFRSRU
6HSUHVHQWDURQYDORUHVDVRFLDGRVDXQFRPSRU- VXQHFH6LGDGHQSDtVHVHQGHVDUUROOR
WDPLHQWRGHODPLVPDSUREDELOLGDGHQORVFRQ-
MXQWRV%8'\ $8& ଳ %8' GHOUDQJRGHD /D WHRUtD GH OD SUREDELOLGDG SHUPLWH DQDOL]DU \
OHXFRFLWRV\HQHOFRQMXQWR $8& ଳ %8'  FRPSDUDUHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHORVFRQMXQWRVHV-
GHOUDQJRGHDPLHQWUDVTXHORVYD- WDEOHFLGRVHQODLQGXFFLyQHVWDEOHFLHQGRTXHHQ
ORUHVUHVWDQWHVSUHVHQWDURQXQFRPSRUWDPLHQWR WRGRVORVUDQJRVODVPXHVWUDVHYDOXDGDVSUHVHQWDQ
FDUJDGRGRQGHORVYDORUHVPiVDOWRVVHHQFRQ- PD\RUHVSUREDELOLGDGHVGHSHUWHQHFHUDORVFRQ-
WUDURQHQHOUDQJRGHRPHQRVOHXFRFLWRV MXQWRV $ \ & TXH HVWDEOHFHQ HO FRPSRUWDPLHQWR
(VWRV YDORUHV HYLGHQFLDURQ HO FRPSRUWDPLHQWR GHORVOLQIRFLWRVPLHQWUDVTXHHVWRVYDORUHVGLVPL-
FDUJDGR SDUD OD DSDULFLyQ WDQWR GH OLQIRFLWRV QX\HQDOHYDOXDUORVFRQMXQWRV%\'GHWDOPRGR
FRPRSDUDFpOXODV&'HQORVUDQJRVGHOHXFR-
FLWRVHYDOXDGRV WDEOD  Tabla 3. 9DORUHVGHODVGHVYLDFLRQHVFXDGUiWLFDVPHGLDVUHVSHFWR
DODVSUREDELOLGDGHVGHXQFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHSUREDELOLGDGHV
HTXLYDOHQWHV6HHYLGHQFLDTXHHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHOIHQyPHQR
Discusión SUHVHQWDGLYHUVRVYDORUHVGHSUREDELOLGDGQRHTXLYDOHQWHV

AUC BUD $8& ଳ %8'


Leucocitos
(VWH HV HO SULPHU WUDEDMR HQ HO FXDO VH KDFH XQD Desviación Desviación Desviación
SUHGLFFLyQEDVDGDHQODWHRUtDGHODSUREDELOLGDG RPiV   
TXH HVWDEOHFH XQ Q~PHUR GH FpOXODV &'˜O FRQ D   
EDVH HQ ORV UHFXHQWRV GH OHXFRFLWRV \ OLQIRFLWRV
D   
FRQSUREDELOLGDGHVVXSHULRUHVDHQFLQFRGH
ORVRFKRUDQJRVHYDOXDGRVTXHDXPHQWDQSURJUH- D   

VLYDPHQWHHQORVUDQJRVLQIHULRUHVD\ D   


por mmGHVDQJUHSHULIpULFD\ORJUDQGRHVWDEOH- D   
FHU SUHGLFFLRQHV FRQ SUREDELOLGDGHV GH  \ 
D   
UHVSHFWLYDPHQWH/DVSUHGLFFLRQHVORJUDGDVFRQVWL-
RPHQRV
WX\HQXQDDEVWUDFFLyQTXHVLPSOLÀFDODYDULDELOLGDG   

,QIHFWLR   
Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Bernal P, et al

TXHJUDFLDVDODVOH\HVGHODSUREDELOLGDG\ODHYD- PHQWH XQR GH ORV SUREOHPDV SDUD OD WRPD GH
OXDFLyQ FRQMXQWD GHO FRPSRUWDPLHQWR GH OHXFR- GHFLVLRQHVGHODDGPLQLVWUDFLyQGHOWUDWDPLHQWR
FLWRV \ OLQIRFLWRV DVRFLDGD D OD HYDOXDFLyQ GH ORV DQWLUUHWURYLUDO DVt FRPR HO VHJXLPLHQWR GH ORV
OLQIRFLWRV 7 &' HQ ORV GLIHUHQWHV UDQJRV SXHGH SDFLHQWHVHQHVWRVSDtVHVHVHODOWRFRVWRGHOD
HVWDEOHFHUVH XQDSUHGLFFLyQ GHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWR FLWRPHWUtDGHÁXMR\DTXHHOUHFXHQWRGHFpOXODV
GHORVOLQIRFLWRV7&'TXHLQGLFDTXHVHHQFRQ- &'HVIXQGDPHQWDOSDUDODWRPDGHGHFLVLRQHV
WUDUiQPHQRVGHFpOXODV&'˜OFRQXQDSUR- WHUDSpXWLFDV \ SDUD HYDOXDU OD HYROXFLyQ GH ORV
EDELOLGDG\HQORVUDQJRVLQIHULRUHVD SDFLHQWHV 3DUDGyMLFDPHQWH OD SRFD FREHUWXUD
\por mmGHVDQJUHSHULIpULFD respectiva- GHHVWHDQiOLVLVHQORVSDtVHVTXHPiVORQHFH-
PHQWHDVtHVSRVLEOHHVWDEOHFHUSUHGLFFLRQHVWR- VLWDQGLVPLQX\HODSRVLELOLGDGGHDGPLQLVWUDFLyQ
WDOPHQWH HIHFWLYDV SDUD YDORUHV LQIHULRUHV D  GHDQWLUUHWURYLUDOHV  DSHVDUGHORVSURJUDPDV
OHXFRFLWRVPP (O DQiOLVLV GHVDUUROODGR FRQ OD GHOD206  \GHODGLVPLQXFLyQGHORVFRV-
GHVYLDFLyQFXDGUiWLFDPHGLDHYLGHQFLDTXHODGLV- WRVGHHVWRV~OWLPRVJUDFLDVDODSURGXFFLyQGH
WULEXFLyQ GH HVWDV SREODFLRQHV \ VXESREODFLRQHV PHGLFDPHQWRVJHQpULFRV  
HVXQIHQyPHQRTXHQRWLHQHODPLVPDSUREDELOL-
GDGHQFRQWUiQGRVHXQFRPSRUWDPLHQWRDVRFLDGR 5HVXOWDHQWRQFHVGHJUDQXWLOLGDGFRQWDUFRQPp-
DODPLVPDSUREDELOLGDGVRODPHQWHHQWUHVGHORV WRGRVTXHSHUPLWDQODSUHGLFFLyQGHOQ~PHURGH
FRQMXQWRVHYDOXDGRVGRVGHHOORVHQHOUDQJR FpOXODV&'FRQEDVHHQORVUHFXHQWRVGHOHXFR-
GHD(VQHFHVDULRKDFHUPiVPHGLGDV FLWRV\OLQIRFLWRVKDOODGRVHQHOKHPRJUDPDSXHV
SDUDSURIXQGL]DUHQODIRUPDGHFRPSRUWDPLHQWR HVWHH[DPHQHVGHPXFKRPHQRUFRVWR\PD\RU
GHORVUDQJRVFRQYDORUHVPHQRUHVGHSUREDELOL- GLVSRQLELOLGDGDQLYHOPXQGLDO(QHVWHWUDEDMRVH
GDGSDUDSHUIHFFLRQDUODDSOLFDFLyQFOtQLFD ORJUDXQDSUHGLFFLyQGHHVWHWLSRGHXWLOLGDGFOtQL-
FDSDUDHOVHJXLPLHQWRGHSDFLHQWHVFRQ9,+VLGD
(VWH WUDEDMR VH EDVD HQ XQD LQYHVWLJDFLyQ SUHYLD
HQODFXDOVHGHVDUUROOyXQDSUHGLFFLyQGHSREOD- /RVPRGHORVGHVDUUROODGRVSDUDODSUHGLFFLyQGH
FLRQHVGHFpOXODV&'IXQGDPHQWDGDHQODWHRUtD OD GLVPLQXFLyQ GH SREODFLRQHV GH FpOXODV &'
GHFRQMXQWRV  FRQSRUFHQWDMHVGHH[DFWLWXGGH FRQEDVHHQPpWRGRVHSLGHPLROyJLFRVRUHGHV
\HQUDQJRVGHOHXFRFLWRVLQIHULRUHVD QHXUDOHV   VRQ FDUDFWHUtVWLFRV GH OD IRUPD GH
\UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHHVDSOLFDEOHDFDGD SHQVDPLHQWR XVDGD WUDGLFLRQDOPHQWH HQ LQPX-
FDVR SDUWLFXODU LQGHSHQGLHQWHPHQWH GH FRQVLGH- QRORJtDHQODFXDOORVIHQyPHQRVVXHOHQDQDOL-
UDFLRQHVGHFDUiFWHUHVWDGtVWLFR(OSUHVHQWHWUDED- ]DUVHPHGLDQWHXQPpWRGRHVWDGtVWLFRRHPSt-
MRSDUWHGHODFRQFHSWXDOL]DFLyQGHOIHQyPHQRFRQ ULFRGHOPLVPRPRGRTXHORVIHQyPHQRVGHOD
EDVHHQORVFRQMXQWRVSUHYLDPHQWHGHÀQLGRVSHUR ELRORJtDPROHFXODU\ORVGHODVDOXGS~EOLFD(Q
HVPiVULJXURVR\PiVHVSHFtÀFRSXHVVHKDFHQ ORVGRV~OWLPRVFDPSRVPHQFLRQDGRVODWHRUtD
SUHGLFFLRQHV FXDQWLWDWLYDV GH WRGRV ORV SRVLEOHV GHODSUREDELOLGDGVHKDDSOLFDGRH[LWRVDPHQWH
UHFXHQWRV GH OLQIRFLWRV &' HVWDEOHFLHQGR ORV SDUDKDFHUSUHGLFFLRQHV
UDQJRVGHPHMRUHVSUHGLFFLRQHVFRQODWHRUtDGHOD
SUREDELOLGDG\VHHYDO~DHOFRPSRUWDPLHQWRGHODV (QELRORJtDPROHFXODUSDUDFDVRVGHPDODULDVH
SUREDELOLGDGHVSRUPHGLRGHODGHVYLDFLyQPHGLD GHVDUUROOy XQD WHRUtD TXH SUHGLFH HO IHQyPHQR
FXDGUiWLFD$GHPiVIXHDSOLFDGRDXQPD\RUQ~- GH XQLyQ GH SpSWLGRV DO JOyEXOR URMR FRQ XQD
PHURGHFDVRVFRQORFXDOVHREWXYRXQUHVXOWDGR VHQVLELOLGDG\XQDHVSHFLÀFLGDGGH\
SUHGLFWRUGHDSOLFDFLyQFOtQLFD UHVSHFWLYDPHQWHHQUHODFLyQFRQORVUHVXOWDGRV
H[SHULPHQWDOHV  
/D SDQGHPLD GH 9,+VLGD FRQVWLWX\H XQ JUD-
YH SUREOHPD GH VDOXG S~EOLFD D QLYHO PXQGLDO (QHOFDPSRGHODLQPXQRORJtDVHKDGHVDUUR-
HVSHFLDOPHQWH HQ SDtVHV HQ GHVDUUROOR $FWXDO- OODGR XQD WHRUtD SUHGLFWRUD GHO IHQyPHQR GH

 $62&,$&,Ï1&2/20%,$1$'(,1)(&72/2*Ë$ ,QIHFWLR  


Predicción de la concentración de linfocitos T CD4 en sangre periférica con base en la teoría de la probabilidad

XQLyQ DO +/$ GH FODVH ,, FRQ EDVH HQ PHGLGDV FRQODFXDOVHORJUDGLDJQRVWLFDUREMHWLYDPHQWH
GH SUREDELOLGDG FRPELQDWRULD \ HQWURStD   FpOXODVSUHQHRSOiVLFDVGHOHSLWHOLRFHUYLFRXWHUL-
/RV KDOOD]JRV GH HVWRV WUDEDMRV VHxDODQ TXH QRHQWUHHOODVODVFpOXODV$6&86FRQRFLGDVSRU
HVWRV IHQyPHQRV REHGHFHQ D yUGHQHV ItVLFR SUHVHQWDU DQRUPDOLGDGHV KLVWROyJLFDPHQWH QR
PDWHPiWLFRVTXHSHUPLWHQVXFDUDFWHUL]DFLyQ\ FRQFOX\HQWHV  (VWDPHWRGRORJtDVHJHQHUDOL]y
SUHGLFFLyQ HIHFWLYD FRQ DSOLFDFLRQHV FOtQLFDV \ DFpOXODVQRUPDOHVSUHQHRSOiVLFDV\FDQFHUtJH-
H[SHULPHQWDOHVVLQQHFHVLGDGGHPHWRGRORJtDV QDVHQXQHVWXGLRSRVWHULRUREWHQLpQGRVHPH-
HVWDGtVWLFDVRHSLGHPLROyJLFDV GLDQWHSHUPXWDFLRQHVHVWUXFWXUDOHVIUDFWDOHVORV
SDWURQHV JHRPpWULFRV TXH UHSUHVHQWDQ D WRGDV
(VSHFtÀFDPHQWHODJUDQYDULDELOLGDGHQODWDVDGH ODVSRVLEOHVFpOXODVTXHVHSXHGHQHQFRQWUDUHQ
GLVPLQXFLyQGHFpOXODV&'HQ9,+KDFHTXHVX XQDFLWRORJtD  HVWRVDYDQFHVVRQGHDSOLFDFLyQ
SUHGLFFLyQVHDXQUHWRHQODFLHQFLDDFWXDOWDQWR GLDJQyVWLFDHQODFOtQLFD(VWRVWUDEDMRVHYLGHQ-
SDUDSREODFLRQHVFRPRSDUDLQGLYLGXRV  1RVH FLDQTXHODFRPSUHQVLyQDFDXVDOGHIHQyPHQRV
WUDWDGHUHHPSOD]DUODFXDQWLÀFDFLyQGHORVUHFXHQ- GHODPHGLFLQDPHGLDQWHODXWLOL]DFLyQGHWHRUtDV
WRVGHFpOXODV&'TXHHVWiQGLVSRQLEOHVLQFOXVR ItVLFDV\PDWHPiWLFDVUHYHODyUGHQHVVXE\DFHQ-
FRQPHQRUHVSUHFLRVVLQRGHSHUPLWLUXQDDSUR[L- WHVGHDSOLFDFLyQSUiFWLFD
PDFLyQ WHUDSpXWLFD HQ FXDOTXLHU PRPHQWR GH OD
DWHQFLyQ PpGLFD GH ORV SDFLHQWHV FRQ 9,+ TXH (Q HVWH FDVR KDFLHQGR XVR ~QLFDPHQWH GH OD
SHUPLWLUtD GLULJLU WUDWDPLHQWRV DQWLELyWLFRV FRQWUD SUREDELOLGDG HYDOXDGD HQ UDQJRV VH REWLHQH
SDWyJHQRV RSRUWXQLVWDV FXDQGR HO UHFXHQWR HVWp XQDVLPSOLÀFDFLyQTXHREYLDODVFRQVLGHUDFLRQHV
SRUGHEDMRGHOPDUJHQGHVHJXULGDG PXOWLFDXVDOHV\SHUPLWHDEVWUDHUGDWRV\REWH-
QHUXQDSUHGLFFLyQGLUHFWD
2WURVWUDEDMRVHQHVWDOtQHDGHSUHGLFFLyQDSD-
WLUGHWHRUtDVItVLFDV\PDWHPiWLFDVKDQSHUPLWL- Agradecimientos
GRREWHQHUXQGLDJQyVWLFRGHDSOLFDFLyQFOtQLFD
GHO H[DPHQ +ROWHU GLIHUHQFLDQGR QRUPDOLGDG $OD8QLYHUVLGDG0LOLWDU1XHYD*UDQDGDHVSHFLDO-
HQIHUPHGDGDJXGDHQIHUPHGDGFUyQLFD\HYR- PHQWHDOD9LFHUUHFWRUD $FDGpPLFD0DUWKD%DKD-
OXFLyQHQWUHHVWDGRVFRQEDVHHQSURSRUFLRQHV PyQD(VSHUDQ]D)DMDUGRGLUHFWRUDGH,QYHVWLJD-
GH OD HQWURStD   SRVWHULRUPHQWH DSOLFDGD D OD FLRQHVGHOD)DFXOWDGGH0HGLFLQDD-XDQ0LJXHO
HYROXFLyQ GH SDFLHQWHV HQ OD XQLGDG GH FXLGD- (VWUDGDGHFDQRGHOD)DFXOWDGGH0HGLFLQD\D
GRV FRURQDULRV   7DPELpQ VH REWXYR XQD OH\ OD9LFHUUHFWRUtDGH,QYHVWLJDFLRQHVHQHVSHFLDOD
H[SRQHQFLDO GH OD GLQiPLFD FDUGLDFD FDyWLFD 5LFDUGR&XUH+DNLPYLFHUUHFWRU\D+HQU\$FXxD
PHGLDQWHODFXDOVHFDOFXODQWRGRVORVSRVLEOHV MHIHGHOD'LYLVLyQGH,QYHVWLJDFLyQ&LHQWtÀFDSRU
DWUDFWRUHV FDUGLDFRV SRVLEOHV GHO XQLYHUVR   \ VXDSR\RDQXHVWUDVLQYHVWLJDFLRQHV
XQDJHQHUDOL]DFLyQGHWRGDVODVDUWHULDVIUDFWDOHV
HQHOSURFHVRGHHVWHQRVLV\UHHVWHQRVLV   (VWHWUDEDMRHVUHVXOWDGRGHOSUR\HFWRGH,QYHV-
WLJDFLyQ 0(' ÀQDQFLDGR SRU HO )RQGR GH
(Q VDOXG S~EOLFD VH GHVDUUROOy XQD SUHGLFFLyQ ,QYHVWLJDFLRQHVGHOD8QLYHUVLGDG0LOLWDU1XHYD
GHEURWHVGHPDODULDHQPXQLFLSLRVGH&R- *UDQDGD SRU OR FXDO DJUDGHFHPRV VX DSR\R D
ORPELDDSDUWLUGHGDWRVGHWUHVVHPDQDVHSLGH- QXHVWUDVLQYHVWLJDFLRQHV
PLROyJLFDV FRQXQSRUFHQWDMHGHH[DFWLWXGGHO
  (QODWDPL]DFLyQGHOFiQFHUGHFXHOOR $O &HQWUR GH ,QYHVWLJDFLRQHV GH OD &OtQLFD GHO
XWHULQR 5RGUtJXH] et al DSRUWDURQ XQD QXHYD &RXQWU\ HQ HVSHFLDO D WRGDV ODV SHUVRQDV TXH
PHWRGRORJtDPHGLDQWHHOFiOFXORGHODGLPHQ- WUDEDMDQHQHOPLVPRSRUVXDSR\RHIHFWLYR$
VLyQIUDFWDO\ODDSOLFDFLyQGHORVFRQFHSWRVGH $QGUpV5RGUtJXH]GLUHFWRUGHO&HQWURGH,QYHV-
YDULDELOLGDG \ DUPRQtD PDWHPiWLFD LQWUtQVHFD WLJDFLRQHV GH OD &OtQLFD GHO &RXQWU\ D $GULDQD

,QIHFWLR   
Rodríguez J, Prieto S, Bernal P, et al

/L]EHWK2UWL]\D1DWDOLD0DODYHUSRUHODSR\RD 5HWURVSHFWLYH YDOLGDWLRQ RI JHQRSKHQR7+(2 RQ D ODUJH FOLQLFDO


GDWDEDVH-,QIHFW'LV
QXHVWURWUDEDMR  )H\QPDQ53/HLJKWRQ5%6DQGV03UREDELOLGDG(Q)H\QPDQ53
/HLJKWRQ5%6DQGV0)tVLFD9RO:LOPLQJWRQ$GGLVRQ:HVOH\
,EHURDPHULFDQD6$S
'HGLFDPRVHVWHWUDEDMRDQXHVWURVKLMRV  /DSODFH3(QVD\RÀORVyÀFRVREUHODVSUREDELOLGDGHV%DUFHORQD$O-
WD\D
 2EUHJyQ,/DPDJLD\EHOOH]DGHODVSUREDELOLGDGHV(Q,2EUHJyQ
Referencias Magia y belleza de las matemáticas y algo de su historia.%RJRWi
,QWHUPHGLR(GLWRUHVS
 5RGUtJXH]-%HUQDO33ULHWR6&RUUHD&7HRUtDGHSpSWLGRVGHDOWD
 $EEDV$/LFKWPDQ$3REHU-,QPXQRORJtDFHOXODU\PROHFXODU XQLyQGHPDODULDDOJOyEXORURMR3UHGLFFLRQHVWHyULFDVGHQXHYRV
HGLFLyQ0DGULG0F*UDZ+LOOS SpSWLGRVGHXQLyQ\PXWDFLRQHVWHyULFDVSUHGLFWLYDVGHDPLQRiFL-
 =LMHQDK/.DG]LUDQJH*0DG]LPH6%RURN00XGLZD&K7REDLZD GRVFUtWLFRV,QPXQRORJtD  
2 et al $IIRUGDEOH ÁRZ F\WRPHWU\ IRU HQXPHUDWLRQ RI DEVROXWH  5RGUtJXH]-%HUQDO3&RUUHD&3ULHWR6%HQtWH]/9LWHU\6HWDO
&'7O\PSKRF\WHVWRLGHQWLI\VXEW\SH&9,+LQIHFWHGDGXOWV 3UHGLFFLyQGHXQLyQGHSpSWLGRVGH06$\$0$GH3ODVPR-
UHTXLULQJDQWLUHWURYLUDOWKHUDS\ $57 DQGPRQLWRULQJUHVSRQVHWR GLXP)DOFLSDUXPDO+/$FODVH,,,QPXQRORJtD  
$57 LQ D UHVRXUFHOLPLWHG VHWWLQJ - 7UDQVO 0HG  )HFKD  5RGUtJXH]-(QWURStDSURSRUFLRQDOGHORVVLVWHPDVGLQiPLFRVFDU-
GH FRQVXOWD  'LVSRQLEOH HQ KWWSZZZWUDQVODWLRQDO GLDFRV3UHGLFFLRQHVItVLFDV\PDWHPiWLFDVGHODGLQiPLFDFDUGLDFD
PHGLFLQHFRPFRQWHQW GHDSOLFDFLyQFOtQLFD5HY&RORPE&DUGLRO  
 :+281$,'6-RLQW8QLWHG1DWLRQV3URJUDPPHRQ+,9$,'6Re-  5RGUtJXH]-3ULHWR6%HUQDO3,]DVD'6DOD]DU*&RUUHD&HWDO
port on the Global AIDS epidemic 2010 S )HFKD GH FRQVXOWD (QWURStDSURSRUFLRQDODSOLFDGDDODHYROXFLyQGHODGLQiPLFDFDUGLD-
'LVSRQLEOHHQKWWSZZZ81$,'6RUJ FD3UHGLFFLRQHVGHDSOLFDFLyQFOtQLFD&RPXQLGDGGH3HQVDPLHQWR
 6LQJK<0DUV06XSSRUWYHFWRUPDFKLQHVWRIRUHFDVWFKDQJHVLQ &RPSOHMR &3& HGLWRU$UJHQWLQD/DHPHUJHQFLDGHORVHQIRTXHV
&'FRXQWRI9,+SRVLWLYHSDWLHQWV6FLHQWLÀF5HVHDUFKDQG(V- GH OD FRPSOHMLGDG HQ $PpULFD /DWLQD GHVDItRV FRQWULEXFLRQHV \
VD\V FRPSURPLVRVSDUDDERUGDUORVSUREOHPDVFRPSOHMRVGHOVLJOR;;
 :LOOLDPV %* .RUHQURPS (/ *RXZV ( 6FKPLG *3 $XYHUW % '\H (Q3UHQVD
& 9,+ LQIHFWLRQ DQWLUHWURYLUDO WKHUDS\ DQG &' &HOO FRXQW GLV-  5RGUtJXH]-0DWKHPDWLFDOODZRIFKDRWLFFDUGLDFG\QDPLF3UHGLF-
WULEXWLRQV LQ $IULFDQ SRSXODWLRQV -RXUQDO RI ,QIHFWLRXV 'LVHDVHV WLRQVRIFOLQLFDSSOLFDWLRQ-0HG0HG6FL  
  5RGUtJXH]-3ULHWR6&RUUHD&%HUQDO33XHUWD*9LWHU\6HWDO
 :LOOLDPV%*.RUHQURPS(/*RXZV('\H&7KHUDWHRIGHFOLQHRI 7KHRUHWLFDOJHQHUDOL]DWLRQRIQRUPDODQGVLFNFRURQDU\DUWHULHVZLWK
&'7FHOOVLQSHRSOHLQIHFWHGZLWK9,+&RUQHOO8QLYHUVLW\/LEUDU\ IUDFWDOGLPHQVLRQVDQGWKHDUWHULDOLQWULQVLFPDWKHPDWLFDOKDUPRQ\
DUF9,+HLQDU;LYY %0&0HG3K\VKWWSZZZELRPHGFHQWUDOFRP
 :DQJ''H*UXWWROD9+DPPHU6+DUULJDQ5/DUGHU%:HJQHU6 
et al $ FROODERUDWLYH 9,+ UHVLVWDQFH UHVSRQVH GDWDEDVH LQLWLDWLYH  5RGUtJXH]-0pWRGRSDUDODSUHGLFFLyQGHODGLQiPLFDWHPSRUDOGH
3UHGLFWLQJYLURORJLFDOUHVSRQVHXVLQJQHXUDOQHWZRUNPRGHOV3RV- ODPDODULDHQORVPXQLFLSLRVGH&RORPELD5HY3DQDP6DOXG3~EOLFD
WHU SUHVHQWDWLRQ ;, ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 9,+ 'UXJ 5HVLVWDQFH :RUNVKRS   
6HYLOOH6SDLQ  5RGUtJXH]-1XHYRPpWRGRIUDFWDOGHD\XGDGLDJQyVWLFDSDUDFpOX-
 /DUGHU%:DQJ'5HYHOO$0RQWDQHU-+DUULJDQ5'H:ROI)et al ODVSUHQHRSOiVLFDVGHOHSLWHOLRHVFDPRVRFHUYLFDO5HY8'&$$FW 
7KHGHYHORSPHQWRIDUWLÀFLDOQHXUDOQHWZRUNVWRSUHGLFWYLURORJLFDO 'LY&LHQW  
UHVSRQVHWRFRPELQDWLRQ9,+WKHUDS\$QWLYLU7KHU  5RGUtJXH]-3ULHWR6&RUUHD&3RVVR+%HUQDO33XHUWD*9LWHU\6
 $OWPDQQ$5RVHQ=YL03URVSHUL0$KDURQL(1HXYLUWK16FKO- 5RMDV,*HQHUDOL]DFLyQ)UDFWDOGH&pOXODV3UHQHRSOiVLFDV\&DQFHUt-
WHU(et al&RPSDULVRQRIFODVVLÀHUIXVLRQPHWKRGVIRUSUHGLFWLQJ JHQDVGHO(SLWHOLR(VFDPRVR&HUYLFDO8QD1XHYD0HWRGRORJtDGH
UHVSRQVHWRDQWL9,+WKHUDS\3/R621(H $SOLFDFLyQ&OtQLFD5HY)DF0HG  
 $OWPDQ$'lXPHU0%HHUHQZLQNHO13HUHV<6FKOWHU(%FK-et
al3UHGLFWLQJWKHUHVSRQVHWRFRPELQDWLRQDQWLUHWURYLUDOWKHUDS\

 $62&,$&,Ï1&2/20%,$1$'(,1)(&72/2*Ë$ ,QIHFWLR  

También podría gustarte