Fecha Ventas

Jan-92 2580
Feb-92 2616
Mar-92 2838
Apr-92 2985
May-92 3258
Jun-92 3107
Jul-92 3097
Aug-92 3288
Sep-92 3077
Oct-92 3429
1. Prepare una grafica de serie de tiempo de datos e ins
Nov-92 4011 las caracteristicas que se ven
Dec-92 5739 2. Realice un promedio movil (k=4), promedio movil co
Jan-93 2877 (0.2;0.2;0.2;0.4). Grafique individ
Feb-93 2885 3. Realice un promedio ponderado exponencialment
Mar-93 3259 exponecialmente con ajuste con tendencencia. G
Apr-93 3454 4. Realice un pronostico menor a un año, en
May-93 3771 5. Realice un modelo de regresion lineal, exponenc
Jun-93 3667 Grafiquelo
Jul-93 3743 6. Descomponga en series de tiempo, encuentre la
Aug-93 3792 irregularidad. Grafi
Sep-93 3699 7. Realizar el calculo de los indices estacionale
Oct-93 4082
8. Calcule el MAD, RSFE, MAPE y TS de cada m
Nov-93 4727
Dec-93 6672
Jan-94 3560
Feb-94 3575
Mar-94 4220
Apr-94 4282
May-94 4594
Jun-94 4691
Jul-94 4629
Aug-94 4795
Sep-94 4632
Oct-94 5067
Nov-94 5746
Dec-94 7965
Jan-95 4317
Feb-95 4118
Mar-95 4855
Apr-95 4999
May-95 5343
Jun-95 5392
Jul-95 5274
Aug-95 5435
Sep-95 5217
Oct-95 5460
Nov-95 6288
Dec-95 8403
Jan-96 4758
Feb-96 4914
Mar-96 5431
Apr-96 5474
May-96 6124
Jun-96 6027
Jul-96 5914
Aug-96 6244
Sep-96 5808
Oct-96 6373
Nov-96 6994
Dec-96 9018
Jan-97 5694
Feb-97 5431
Mar-97 6240
Apr-97 6101
May-97 6849
Jun-97 6694
Jul-97 6815
Aug-97 6948
Sep-97 6450
Oct-97 7190
Nov-97 7738
Dec-97 9769
Jan-98 6666
Feb-98 6401
Mar-98 7280
Apr-98 7587
May-98 8173
Jun-98 8183
Jul-98 8123
Aug-98 8290
Sep-98 7968
Oct-98 8643
Nov-98 9440
Dec-98 11797
Jan-99 8090
Feb-99 7768
Mar-99 9003
Apr-99 8813
May-99 9722
Jun-99 9854
Jul-99 9781
Aug-99 9956
Sep-99 9594
Oct-99 10222
Nov-99 11130
Dec-99 15015
Jan-00 9196
Feb-00 9442
Mar-00 10767
Apr-00 10353
May-00 11367
Jun-00 11748
Jul-00 11610
Aug-00 11894
Sep-00 11359
Oct-00 12010
Nov-00 13157
Dec-00 16728
Jan-01 11217
Feb-01 10940
Mar-01 12414
Apr-01 12645
May-01 13518
Jun-01 13650
Jul-01 13468
Aug-01 14118
Sep-01 13205
Oct-01 14079
Nov-01 15805
Dec-01 20051
Jan-02 13207
Feb-02 13224
Mar-02 15340
Apr-02 14519
May-02 16144
Jun-02 16082
Jul-02 15673
Aug-02 16411
Sep-02 14755
Oct-02 15933
Nov-02 18190
Dec-02 22132
Jan-03 15173
Feb-03 15349
Mar-03 17002
Apr-03 16360
May-03 18075
Jun-03 17625
Jul-03 17779
Aug-03 18958
Sep-03 16807
Oct-03 18246
Nov-03 20472
Dec-03 24863
Jan-04 17897
Feb-04 18155
Mar-04 18981
Apr-04 19355
May-04 21002
Jun-04 19988
Jul-04 20549
Aug-04 20477
Sep-04 19108
Oct-04 21013
Nov-04 22486
Dec-04 28274
Jan-05 19813
Feb-05 19691
mpo de datos e inspeccionela en forma visial para determinar
risticas que se ven en estas series .
promedio movil con ajuste de tendencia y promedio pondera
4). Grafique individualmente cada caso.
exponencialmente simple (α=0.65) y pormedio ponderado
on tendencencia. Grafique individualmente cada caso.
menor a un año, encuentre los indices estacionales.
n lineal, exponencial, logaritmico y potencial, con α=95%.
Grafiquelo
mpo, encuentre la tendencia, estacionalidad, ciclicidad e
rregularidad. Grafiquelos
ndices estacionales por el metodo de los promedio.
APE y TS de cada modelo de pronostico anteriores.
 2
0.2 0.2
Fecha Ventas PMS k=4 pronostico prom. Simple prom. Doble
1 Jan-92 2580
2 Feb-92 2616
3 Mar-92 2838
4 Apr-92 2985 2754.75 2985 2985
5 May-92 3258 2924.25 2754.75 2985.00 2985.00
6 Jun-92 3107 3047.00 2924.25 3039.60 2941.32
7 Jul-92 3097 3111.75 3047.00 3053.08 2930.54
8 Aug-92 3288 3187.50 3111.75 3061.86 2923.51
9 Sep-92 3077 3142.25 3187.50 3107.09 2887.33
10 Oct-92 3429 3222.75 3142.25 3101.07 2892.14
11 Nov-92 4011 3451.25 3222.75 3166.66 2839.67
12 Dec-92 5739 4064.00 3451.25 3335.53 2704.58
1 Jan-93 2877 4014.00 4064.00 3816.22 2320.02
2 Feb-93 2885 3878.00 4014.00 3628.38 2470.30
3 Mar-93 3259 3690.00 3878.00 3479.70 2589.24
4 Apr-93 3454 3118.75 3690.00 3435.56 2624.55
5 May-93 3771 3342.25 3118.75 3439.25 2621.60
6 Jun-93 3667 3537.75 3342.25 3505.60 2568.52
7 Jul-93 3743 3658.75 3537.75 3537.88 2542.70
8 Aug-93 3792 3743.25 3658.75 3578.90 2509.88
9 Sep-93 3699 3725.25 3743.25 3621.52 2475.78
10 Oct-93 4082 3829.00 3725.25 3637.02 2463.39
11 Nov-93 4727 4075.00 3829.00 3726.01 2392.19
12 Dec-93 6672 4795.00 4075.00 3926.21 2232.03
1 Jan-94 3560 4760.25 4795.00 4475.37 1792.70
2 Feb-94 3575 4633.50 4760.25 4292.30 1939.16
3 Mar-94 4220 4506.75 4633.50 4148.84 2053.93
4 Apr-94 4282 3909.25 4506.75 4163.07 2042.54
5 May-94 4594 4167.75 3909.25 4186.86 2023.52
6 Jun-94 4691 4446.75 4167.75 4268.28 1958.37
7 Jul-94 4629 4549.00 4446.75 4352.83 1890.74
8 Aug-94 4795 4677.25 4549.00 4408.06 1846.55
9 Sep-94 4632 4686.75 4677.25 4485.45 1784.64
10 Oct-94 5067 4780.75 4686.75 4514.76 1761.19
11 Nov-94 5746 5060.00 4780.75 4625.21 1672.83
12 Dec-94 7965 5852.50 5060.00 4849.37 1493.51
1 Jan-95 4317 5773.75 5852.50 5472.49 995.01
2 Feb-95 4118 5536.50 5773.75 5241.39 1179.88
3 Mar-95 4855 5313.75 5536.50 5016.72 1359.63
4 Apr-95 4999 4572.25 5313.75 4984.37 1385.50
5 May-95 5343 4828.75 4572.25 4987.30 1383.16
6 Jun-95 5392 5147.25 4828.75 5058.44 1326.25
7 Jul-95 5274 5252.00 5147.25 5125.15 1272.88
8 Aug-95 5435 5361.00 5252.00 5154.92 1249.06
9 Sep-95 5217 5329.50 5361.00 5210.94 1204.25
10 Oct-95 5460 5346.50 5329.50 5212.15 1203.28
11 Nov-95 6288 5600.00 5346.50 5261.72 1163.62
12 Dec-95 8403 6342.00 5600.00 5466.98 999.42
1 Jan-96 4758 6227.25 6342.00 6054.18 529.66
2 Feb-96 4914 6090.75 6227.25 5794.94 737.04
3 Mar-96 5431 5876.50 6090.75 5618.76 878.00
4 Apr-96 5474 5144.25 5876.50 5581.20 908.04
5 May-96 6124 5485.75 5144.25 5559.76 925.19
6 Jun-96 6027 5764.00 5485.75 5672.61 834.91
7 Jul-96 5914 5884.75 5764.00 5743.49 778.21
8 Aug-96 6244 6077.25 5884.75 5777.59 750.93
9 Sep-96 5808 5998.25 6077.25 5870.87 676.30
10 Oct-96 6373 6084.75 5998.25 5858.30 686.36
11 Nov-96 6994 6354.75 6084.75 5961.24 604.01
12 Dec-96 9018 7048.25 6354.75 6167.79 438.77
1 Jan-97 5694 7019.75 7048.25 6737.83 -17.27
2 Feb-97 5431 6784.25 7019.75 6529.07 149.75
3 Mar-97 6240 6595.75 6784.25 6309.45 325.44
4 Apr-97 6101 5866.50 6595.75 6295.56 336.55
5 May-97 6849 6155.25 5866.50 6256.65 367.68
6 Jun-97 6694 6471.00 6155.25 6375.12 272.90
7 Jul-97 6815 6614.75 6471.00 6438.90 221.88
8 Aug-97 6948 6826.50 6614.75 6514.12 161.71
9 Sep-97 6450 6726.75 6826.50 6600.89 92.29
10 Oct-97 7190 6850.75 6726.75 6570.71 116.43
11 Nov-97 7738 7081.50 6850.75 6694.57 17.34
12 Dec-97 9769 7786.75 7081.50 6903.26 -149.61
1 Jan-98 6666 7840.75 7786.75 7476.41 -608.12
2 Feb-98 6401 7643.50 7840.75 7314.32 -478.46
3 Mar-98 7280 7529.00 7643.50 7131.66 -332.33
4 Apr-98 7587 6983.50 7529.00 7161.33 -356.06
5 May-98 8173 7360.25 6983.50 7246.46 -424.17
6 Jun-98 8183 7805.75 7360.25 7431.77 -572.42
7 Jul-98 8123 8016.50 7805.75 7582.02 -692.61
8 Aug-98 8290 8192.25 8016.50 7690.21 -779.17
9 Sep-98 7968 8141.00 8192.25 7810.17 -875.14
10 Oct-98 8643 8256.00 8141.00 7841.74 -900.39
11 Nov-98 9440 8585.25 8256.00 8001.99 -1028.59
12 Dec-98 11797 9462.00 8585.25 8289.59 -1258.67
1 Jan-99 8090 9492.50 9462.00 8991.07 -1819.86
2 Feb-99 7768 9273.75 9492.50 8810.86 -1675.69
3 Mar-99 9003 9164.50 9273.75 8602.29 -1508.83
4 Apr-99 8813 8418.50 9164.50 8682.43 -1572.94
5 May-99 9722 8826.50 8418.50 8708.54 -1593.83
6 Jun-99 9854 9348.00 8826.50 8911.23 -1755.99
7 Jul-99 9781 9542.50 9348.00 9099.79 -1906.83
8 Aug-99 9956 9828.25 9542.50 9236.03 -2015.82
9 Sep-99 9594 9796.25 9828.25 9380.02 -2131.02
10 Oct-99 10222 9888.25 9796.25 9422.82 -2165.26
11 Nov-99 11130 10225.50 9888.25 9582.66 -2293.12
12 Dec-99 15015 11490.25 10225.50 9892.12 -2540.70
1 Jan-00 9196 11390.75 11490.25 10916.70 -3360.36
2 Feb-00 9442 11195.75 11390.75 10572.56 -3085.05
3 Mar-00 10767 11105.00 11195.75 10346.45 -2904.16
4 Apr-00 10353 9939.50 11105.00 10430.56 -2971.45
5 May-00 11367 10482.25 9939.50 10415.05 -2959.04
6 Jun-00 11748 11058.75 10482.25 10605.44 -3111.35
7 Jul-00 11610 11269.50 11058.75 10833.95 -3294.16
8 Aug-00 11894 11654.75 11269.50 10989.16 -3418.33
9 Sep-00 11359 11652.75 11654.75 11170.13 -3563.10
10 Oct-00 12010 11718.25 11652.75 11207.90 -3593.32
11 Nov-00 13157 12105.00 11718.25 11368.32 -3721.66
12 Dec-00 16728 13313.50 12105.00 11726.06 -4007.85
1 Jan-01 11217 13278.00 13313.50 12726.45 -4808.16
2 Feb-01 10940 13010.50 13278.00 12424.56 -4566.65
3 Mar-01 12414 12824.75 13010.50 12127.65 -4329.12
4 Apr-01 12645 11804.00 12824.75 12184.92 -4374.93
5 May-01 13518 12379.25 11804.00 12276.93 -4448.55
6 Jun-01 13650 13056.75 12379.25 12525.15 -4647.12
7 Jul-01 13468 13320.25 13056.75 12750.12 -4827.09
8 Aug-01 14118 13688.50 13320.25 12893.69 -4941.95
9 Sep-01 13205 13610.25 13688.50 13138.55 -5137.84
10 Oct-01 14079 13717.50 13610.25 13151.84 -5148.48
11 Nov-01 15805 14301.75 13717.50 13337.28 -5296.82
12 Dec-01 20051 15785.00 14301.75 13830.82 -5691.66
1 Jan-02 13207 15785.50 15785.00 15074.86 -6686.88
2 Feb-02 13224 15571.75 15785.50 14701.28 -6388.03
3 Mar-02 15340 15455.50 15571.75 14405.83 -6151.66
4 Apr-02 14519 14072.50 15455.50 14592.66 -6301.13
5 May-02 16144 14806.75 14072.50 14577.93 -6289.34
6 Jun-02 16082 15521.25 14806.75 14891.14 -6539.92
7 Jul-02 15673 15604.50 15521.25 15129.32 -6730.45
8 Aug-02 16411 16077.50 15604.50 15238.05 -6817.44
9 Sep-02 14755 15730.25 16077.50 15472.64 -7005.11
10 Oct-02 15933 15693.00 15730.25 15329.11 -6890.29
11 Nov-02 18190 16322.25 15693.00 15449.89 -6986.91
12 Dec-02 22132 17752.50 16322.25 15997.91 -7425.33
1 Jan-03 15173 17857.00 17752.50 17224.73 -8406.78
2 Feb-03 15349 17711.00 17857.00 16814.38 -8078.51
3 Mar-03 17002 17414.00 17711.00 16521.31 -7844.05
4 Apr-03 16360 15971.00 17414.00 16617.45 -7920.96
5 May-03 18075 16696.50 15971.00 16565.96 -7879.77
6 Jun-03 17625 17265.50 16696.50 16867.77 -8121.21
7 Jul-03 17779 17459.75 17265.50 17019.21 -8242.37
8 Aug-03 18958 18109.25 17459.75 17171.17 -8363.94
9 Sep-03 16807 17792.25 18109.25 17528.54 -8649.83
10 Oct-03 18246 17947.50 17792.25 17384.23 -8534.38
11 Nov-03 20472 18620.75 17947.50 17556.58 -8672.27
12 Dec-03 24863 20097.00 18620.75 18139.67 -9138.73
1 Jan-04 17897 20369.50 20097.00 19484.33 -10214.47
2 Feb-04 18155 20346.75 20369.50 19166.87 -9960.49
3 Mar-04 18981 19974.00 20346.75 18964.49 -9798.59
4 Apr-04 19355 18597.00 19974.00 18967.79 -9801.24
5 May-04 21002 19373.25 18597.00 19045.24 -9863.19
6 Jun-04 19988 19831.50 19373.25 19436.59 -10176.27
7 Jul-04 20549 20223.50 19831.50 19546.87 -10264.50
8 Aug-04 20477 20504.00 20223.50 19747.30 -10424.84
9 Sep-04 19108 20030.50 20504.00 19893.24 -10541.59
10 Oct-04 21013 20286.75 20030.50 19736.19 -10415.95
11 Nov-04 22486 20771.00 20286.75 19991.55 -10620.24
12 Dec-04 28274 22720.25 20771.00 20490.44 -11019.35
1 Jan-05 19813 22896.50 22720.25 22047.15 -12264.72
2 Feb-05 19691 22566.00 22896.50 21600.32 -11907.26

PMS
25000.00

20000.00

15000.00

10000.00

5000.00

0.00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
2
0.2 0.4 Ajuste de tende
prom. Ajustado pronostico PMP Pronostico desviacion RSFE

2985
2985.00 2985.00 2800.8
3162.45 2985.00 2991.00 2800.8 182.75 182.75
3206.26 3162.45 3059.00 2991 50.00 232.75
3234.81 3206.26 3108.80 3059 176.25 409.00
3381.80 3234.81 3207.60 3108.8 -110.50 298.50
3362.24 3381.80 3129.20 3207.6 286.75 585.25
3575.39 3362.24 3264.00 3129.2 788.25 1373.50
4124.21 3575.39 3563.20 3264 2287.75 3661.25
5686.47 4124.21 4399.00 3563.2 -1187.00 2474.25
5075.98 5686.47 3786.60 4399 -1129.00 1345.25
4592.78 5075.98 3679.40 3786.6 -619.00 726.25
4449.32 4592.78 3603.80 3679.4 -236.00 490.25
4461.31 4449.32 3185.80 3603.8 652.25 1142.50
4676.95 4461.31 3428.00 3185.8 324.75 1467.25
4781.86 4676.95 3563.60 3428 205.25 1672.50
4915.19 4781.86 3675.60 3563.6 133.25 1805.75
5053.70 4915.19 3753.00 3675.6 -44.25 1761.50
5104.06 5053.70 3720.00 3753 356.75 2118.25
5393.30 5104.06 3879.60 3720 898.00 3016.25
6043.94 5393.30 4205.40 3879.6 2597.00 5613.25
7828.70 6043.94 5170.40 4205.4 -1235.00 4378.25
7233.71 7828.70 4520.20 5170.4 -1185.25 3193.00
6767.47 7233.71 4421.80 4520.2 -413.50 2779.50
6813.72 6767.47 4449.40 4421.8 -224.75 2554.75
6891.03 6813.72 3983.80 4449.4 684.75 3239.50
7155.67 6891.03 4253.00 3983.8 523.25 3762.75
7430.44 7155.67 4495.60 4253 182.25 3945.00
7609.95 7430.44 4565.00 4495.6 246.00 4191.00
7861.46 7609.95 4700.80 4565 -45.25 4145.75
7956.72 7861.46 4675.80 4700.8 380.25 4526.00
8315.68 7956.72 4838.00 4675.8 965.25 5491.25
9044.19 8315.68 5197.20 4838 2905.00 8396.25
11069.35 9044.19 6275.00 5197.2 -1535.50 6860.75
10318.28 11069.35 5482.40 6275 -1655.75 5205.00
9588.08 10318.28 5252.80 5482.4 -681.50 4523.50
9482.96 9588.08 5222.00 5252.8 -314.75 4208.75
9492.47 9482.96 4657.60 5222 770.75 4979.50
9723.67 9492.47 4931.60 4657.6 563.25 5542.75
9940.49 9723.67 5196.20 4931.6 126.75 5669.50
10037.24 9940.49 5256.40 5196.2 183.00 5852.50
10219.29 10037.24 5375.80 5256.4 -144.00 5708.50
10223.23 10219.29 5307.00 5375.8 130.50 5839.00
10384.34 10223.23 5369.20 5307 941.50 6780.50
11051.42 10384.34 5737.60 5369.2 2803.00 9583.50
12959.84 11051.42 6754.20 5737.6 -1584.00 7999.50
12117.32 12959.84 5933.40 6754.2 -1313.25 6686.25
11544.71 12117.32 5855.40 5933.4 -659.75 6026.50
11422.66 11544.71 5787.40 5855.4 -402.50 5624.00
11352.98 11422.66 5210.20 5787.4 979.75 6603.75
11719.74 11352.98 5613.40 5210.2 541.25 7145.00
11950.09 11719.74 5816.60 5613.4 150.00 7295.00
12060.92 11950.09 5890.60 5816.6 359.25 7654.25
12364.09 12060.92 6110.60 5890.6 -269.25 7385.00
12323.22 12364.09 5960.20 6110.6 374.75 7759.75
12657.78 12323.22 6142.40 5960.2 909.25 8669.00
13329.07 12657.78 6482.60 6142.4 2663.25 11332.25
15181.71 13329.07 7442.20 6482.6 -1354.25 9978.00
14503.21 15181.71 6754.60 7442.2 -1588.75 8389.25
13789.47 14503.21 6513.60 6754.6 -544.25 7845.00
13744.33 13789.47 6524.60 6513.6 -494.75 7350.25
13617.86 13744.33 5913.40 6524.6 982.50 8332.75
14002.89 13617.86 6294.00 5913.4 538.75 8871.50
14210.16 14002.89 6515.60 6294 344.00 9215.50
14454.63 14210.16 6654.80 6515.6 333.25 9548.75
14736.65 14454.63 6850.80 6654.8 -376.50 9172.25
14638.57 14736.65 6671.40 6850.8 463.25 9635.50
15041.11 14638.57 6918.60 6671.4 887.25 10522.75
15719.34 15041.11 7212.80 6918.6 2687.50 13210.25
17582.07 15719.34 8183.20 7212.8 -1120.75 12089.50
17055.31 17582.07 7605.80 8183.2 -1439.75 10649.75
16461.64 17055.31 7395.00 7605.8 -363.50 10286.25
16558.07 16461.64 7479.20 7395 58.00 10344.25
16834.75 16558.07 7104.20 7479.2 1189.50 11533.75
17437.00 16834.75 7522.80 7104.2 822.75 12356.50
17925.30 17437.00 7881.20 7522.8 317.25 12673.75
18276.94 17925.30 8037.80 7881.2 273.50 12947.25
18666.80 18276.94 8211.80 8037.8 -224.25 12723.00
18769.39 18666.80 8106.40 8211.8 502.00 13225.00
19290.21 18769.39 8333.40 8106.4 1184.00 14409.00
20224.92 19290.21 8756.20 8333.4 3211.75 17620.75
22504.74 20224.92 9929.00 8756.2 -1372.00 16248.75
21919.04 22504.74 9212.00 9929 -1724.50 14524.25
21241.18 21919.04 8972.60 9212 -270.75 14253.50
21501.65 21241.18 9132.20 8972.6 -351.50 13902.00
21586.52 21501.65 8497.40 9132.2 1303.50 15205.50
22245.26 21586.52 9005.60 8497.4 1027.50 16233.00
22858.06 22245.26 9449.20 9005.6 433.00 16666.00
23300.85 22858.06 9590.20 9449.2 413.50 17079.50
23768.83 23300.85 9853.80 9590.2 -234.25 16845.25
23907.91 23768.83 9755.80 9853.8 425.75 17271.00
24427.38 23907.91 9955.00 9755.8 1241.75 18512.75
25433.15 24427.38 10406.40 9955 4789.50 23302.25
28763.02 25433.15 12195.20 10406.4 -2294.25 21008.00
27644.57 28763.02 10951.80 12195.2 -1948.75 19059.25
26909.70 27644.57 10845.00 10951.8 -428.75 18630.50
27183.06 26909.70 11037.40 10845 -752.00 17878.50
27132.65 27183.06 10022.20 11037.4 1427.50 19306.00
27751.42 27132.65 10659.20 10022.2 1265.75 20571.75
28494.09 27751.42 11196.60 10659.2 551.25 21123.00
28998.52 28494.09 11337.60 11196.6 624.50 21747.50
29586.67 28998.52 11702.60 11337.6 -295.75 21451.75
29709.43 29586.67 11594.00 11702.6 357.25 21809.00
30230.80 29709.43 11776.60 11594 1438.75 23247.75
31393.44 30230.80 12315.40 11776.6 4623.00 27870.75
34644.70 31393.44 13996.40 12315.4 -2096.50 25774.25
33663.56 34644.70 12865.80 13996.4 -2338.00 23436.25
32698.60 33663.56 12596.40 12865.8 -596.50 22839.75
32884.73 32698.60 12742.60 12596.4 -179.75 22660.00
33183.78 32884.73 11972.20 12742.6 1714.00 24374.00
33990.48 33183.78 12607.00 11972.2 1270.75 25644.75
34721.63 33990.48 13175.40 12607 411.25 26056.00
35188.25 34721.63 13349.80 13175.4 797.75 26853.75
35984.05 35188.25 13774.40 13349.8 -483.50 26370.25
36027.24 35984.05 13529.20 13774.4 468.75 26839.00
36629.89 36027.24 13789.80 13529.2 2087.50 28926.50
38233.92 36629.89 14602.40 13789.8 5749.25 34675.75
42277.03 38233.92 16638.20 14602.4 -2578.00 32097.75
41062.93 42277.03 15269.80 16638.2 -2561.50 29536.25
40102.69 41062.93 15102.20 15269.8 -231.75 29304.50
40709.90 40102.69 15432.40 15102.2 -936.50 28368.00
40662.02 40709.90 14161.80 15432.4 2071.50 30439.50
41679.97 40662.02 15074.20 14161.8 1275.25 31714.75
42454.02 41679.97 15633.40 15074.2 151.75 31866.50
42807.42 42454.02 15618.20 15633.4 806.50 32673.00
43569.84 42807.42 16144.20 15618.2 -1322.50 31350.50
43103.37 43569.84 15535.20 16144.2 202.75 31553.25
43495.89 43103.37 15741.00 15535.2 2497.00 34050.25
45276.97 43495.89 16695.80 15741 5809.75 39860.00
49264.12 45276.97 18628.40 16695.8 -2579.50 37280.50
47930.50 49264.12 17320.20 18628.4 -2508.00 34772.50
46978.00 47930.50 17238.60 17320.2 -709.00 34063.50
47290.45 46978.00 17331.60 17238.6 -1054.00 33009.50
47123.11 47290.45 16048.80 17331.6 2104.00 35113.50
48103.99 47123.11 16972.20 16048.8 928.50 36042.00
48596.19 48103.99 17337.40 16972.2 513.50 36555.50
49090.05 48596.19 17523.60 17337.4 1498.25 38053.75
50251.49 49090.05 18279.00 17523.6 -1302.25 36751.50
 49782.49 50251.49 17595.20 18279 453.75 37205.25
50342.64 49782.49 18007.20 17595.2 2524.50 39729.75
52237.67 50342.64 18991.00 18007.2 6242.25 45972.00
56607.83 52237.67 21050.20 18991 -2200.00 43772.00
55576.07 56607.83 19875.00 21050.2 -2214.50 41557.50
54918.35 55576.07 19908.40 19875 -1365.75 40191.75
54929.08 54918.35 19775.40 19908.4 -619.00 39572.75
55180.77 54929.08 18748.60 19775.4 2405.00 41977.75
56452.66 55180.77 19699.00 18748.6 614.75 42592.50
56811.08 56452.66 19862.80 19699 717.50 43310.00
57462.46 56811.08 20288.60 19862.8 253.50 43563.50
57936.77 57462.46 20498.60 20288.6 -1396.00 42167.50
57426.37 57936.77 19846.00 20498.6 982.50 43150.00
58256.29 57426.37 20432.00 19846 2199.25 45349.25
59877.68 58256.29 21114.00 20432 7503.00 52852.25
64937.00 59877.68 23831.00 21114 -2907.25 49945.00
63484.80 64937.00 22279.80 23831 -3205.50 46739.50
22279.8

140 160 180

Ajuste de tendencia
desv. Abs suma desv. Abs MAD MAPE TS desviacion

182.75 182.75 30.46 1% 6.0 122.00

50 232.75 33.25 1% 7.0 112.00
176.25 409 51.13 2% 8.0 125.55
110.5 519.5 57.72 2% 5.2 -129.26
286.75 806.25 80.63 2% 7.3 194.19
788.25 1594.5 144.95 4% 9.5 629.20
2287.75 3882.25 323.52 6% 11.3 2376.76
1187 5069.25 5069.25 176% 0.5 -698.39
1129 6198.25 3099.13 107% 0.4 -1239.21
619 6817.25 2272.42 70% 0.3 -2427.47
236 7053.25 1763.31 51% 0.3 -1621.98
652.25 7705.5 1541.10 41% 0.7 -821.78
324.75 8030.25 1338.38 36% 1.1 -782.32
205.25 8235.5 1176.50 31% 1.4 -718.31
133.25 8368.75 1046.09 28% 1.7 -884.95
44.25 8413 934.78 25% 1.9 -1082.86
356.75 8769.75 876.98 21% 2.4 -833.19
898 9667.75 878.89 19% 3.4 -326.70
2597 12264.75 1022.06 15% 5.5 1567.94
1235 13499.75 13499.75 379% 0.3 -1833.30
1185.25 14685 7342.50 205% 0.4 -2468.94
413.5 15098.5 5032.83 119% 0.6 -3608.70
224.75 15323.25 3830.81 89% 0.7 -2951.71
684.75 16008 3201.60 70% 1.0 -2173.47
523.25 16531.25 2755.21 59% 1.4 -2122.72
182.25 16713.5 2387.64 52% 1.7 -2262.03
246 16959.5 2119.94 44% 2.0 -2360.67
45.25 17004.75 1889.42 41% 2.2 -2798.44
380.25 17385 1738.50 34% 2.6 -2542.95
965.25 18350.25 1668.20 29% 3.3 -2115.46
2905 21255.25 1771.27 22% 4.7 8.28
1535.5 22790.75 22790.75 528% 0.3 -3998.68
1655.75 24446.5 12223.25 297% 0.4 -4926.19
681.5 25128 8376.00 173% 0.5 -6214.35
314.75 25442.75 6360.69 127% 0.7 -5319.28
770.75 26213.5 5242.70 98% 0.9 -4245.08
563.25 26776.75 4462.79 83% 1.2 -4090.96
126.75 26903.5 3843.36 73% 1.5 -4218.47
183 27086.5 3385.81 62% 1.7 -4288.67
144 27230.5 3025.61 58% 1.9 -4723.49
 130.5 27361 2736.10 50% 2.1 -4577.24
941.5 28302.5 2572.95 41% 2.6 -3931.29
2803 31105.5 2592.13 31% 3.7 -1820.23
1584 32689.5 32689.50 687% 0.2 -5626.34
1313.25 34002.75 17001.38 346% 0.4 -6137.42
659.75 34662.5 11554.17 213% 0.5 -7528.84
402.5 35065 8766.25 160% 0.6 -6643.32
979.75 36044.75 7208.95 118% 0.9 -5420.71
541.25 36586 6097.67 101% 1.2 -5395.66
150 36736 5248.00 89% 1.4 -5438.98
359.25 37095.25 4636.91 74% 1.7 -5475.74
269.25 37364.5 4151.61 71% 1.8 -6142.09
374.75 37739.25 3773.93 59% 2.1 -5687.92
909.25 38648.5 3513.50 50% 2.5 -5370.09
2663.25 41311.75 3442.65 38% 3.3 -3305.22
1354.25 42666 42666.00 749% 0.2 -6963.78
1588.75 44254.75 22127.38 407% 0.4 -7898.07
544.25 44799 14933.00 239% 0.5 -8941.71
494.75 45293.75 11323.44 186% 0.6 -8402.21
982.5 46276.25 9255.25 135% 0.9 -6940.47
538.75 46815 7802.50 117% 1.1 -7050.33
344 47159 6737.00 99% 1.4 -6802.86
333.25 47492.25 5936.53 85% 1.6 -7054.89
376.5 47868.75 5318.75 82% 1.7 -7760.16
463.25 48332 4833.20 67% 2.0 -7264.63
887.25 49219.25 4474.48 58% 2.4 -6998.65
2687.5 51906.75 4325.56 44% 3.1 -4869.57
1120.75 53027.5 53027.50 795% 0.2 -8375.11
1439.75 54467.25 27233.63 425% 0.4 -9318.34
363.5 54830.75 18276.92 251% 0.6 -10302.07
58 54888.75 13722.19 181% 0.8 -9468.31
1189.5 56078.25 11215.65 137% 1.0 -8288.64
822.75 56901 9483.50 116% 1.3 -8375.07
317.25 57218.25 8174.04 101% 1.6 -8711.75
273.5 57491.75 7186.47 87% 1.8 -9147.00
224.25 57716 6412.89 80% 2.0 -9957.30
502 58218 5821.80 67% 2.3 -9633.94
1184 59402 5400.18 57% 2.7 -9226.80
3211.75 62613.75 5217.81 44% 3.4 -6972.39
1372 63985.75 63985.75 791% 0.3 -11200.21
1724.5 65710.25 32855.13 423% 0.4 -12456.92
270.75 65981 21993.67 244% 0.6 -13501.74
351.5 66332.5 16583.13 188% 0.8 -13106.04
1303.5 67636 13527.20 139% 1.1 -11519.18
1027.5 68663.5 11443.92 116% 1.4 -11647.65
433 69096.5 9870.93 101% 1.7 -11805.52
413.5 69510 8688.75 87% 2.0 -12289.26
234.25 69744.25 7749.36 81% 2.2 -13264.06
 425.75 70170 7017.00 69% 2.5 -13078.85
1241.75 71411.75 6491.98 58% 2.9 -12638.83
4789.5 76201.25 6350.10 42% 3.7 -8892.91
2294.25 78495.5 78495.50 854% 0.3 -15231.38
1948.75 80444.25 40222.13 426% 0.5 -15991.15
428.75 80873 26957.67 250% 0.7 -17996.02
752 81625 20406.25 197% 0.9 -17291.57
1427.5 83052.5 16610.50 146% 1.2 -15542.70
1265.75 84318.25 14053.04 120% 1.5 -15435.06
551.25 84869.5 12124.21 104% 1.7 -15522.65
624.5 85494 10686.75 90% 2.0 -15857.42
295.75 85789.75 9532.19 84% 2.3 -17135.09
357.25 86147 8614.70 72% 2.5 -16988.52
1438.75 87585.75 7962.34 61% 2.9 -16429.67
4623 92208.75 7684.06 46% 3.6 -12981.43
2096.5 94305.25 94305.25 841% 0.3 -19013.80
2338 96643.25 48321.63 442% 0.5 -20453.44
596.5 97239.75 32413.25 261% 0.7 -22230.70
179.75 97419.5 24354.88 193% 0.9 -21018.56
1714 99133.5 19826.70 147% 1.2 -19180.60
1270.75 100404.25 16734.04 123% 1.5 -19234.73
411.25 100815.5 14402.21 107% 1.8 -19715.78
797.75 101613.25 12701.66 90% 2.1 -19872.48
483.5 102096.75 11344.08 86% 2.3 -21516.63
468.75 102565.5 10256.55 73% 2.6 -21109.25
2087.5 104653 9513.91 60% 3.0 -20179.05
5749.25 110402.25 9200.19 46% 3.8 -15976.24
2578 112980.25 112980.25 855% 0.3 -23422.89
2561.5 115541.75 57770.88 437% 0.5 -25009.92
231.75 115773.5 38591.17 252% 0.8 -26937.03
936.5 116710 29177.50 201% 1.0 -26543.93
2071.5 118781.5 23756.30 147% 1.3 -23958.69
1275.25 120056.75 20009.46 124% 1.6 -24627.90
151.75 120208.5 17172.64 110% 1.9 -24989.02
806.5 121015 15126.88 92% 2.2 -25268.97
1322.5 122337.5 13593.06 92% 2.3 -27699.02
202.75 122540.25 12254.03 77% 2.6 -26874.42
2497 125037.25 11367.02 62% 3.0 -25379.84
5809.75 130847 10903.92 49% 3.7 -20971.37
2579.5 133426.5 133426.50 879% 0.3 -28322.89
2508 135934.5 67967.25 443% 0.5 -29927.97
709 136643.5 45547.83 268% 0.7 -32262.12
1054 137697.5 34424.38 210% 1.0 -31570.50
2104 139801.5 27960.30 155% 1.3 -28903.00
928.5 140730 23455.00 133% 1.5 -29665.45
513.5 141243.5 20177.64 113% 1.8 -29344.11
1498.25 142741.75 17842.72 94% 2.1 -29145.99
1302.25 144044 16004.89 95% 2.3 -31789.19
 453.75 144497.75 14449.78 79% 2.6 -30844.05
2524.5 147022.25 13365.66 65% 3.0 -29779.49
6242.25 153264.5 12772.04 51% 3.6 -24919.49
2200 155464.5 155464.50 869% 0.3 -32445.64
2214.5 157679 78839.50 434% 0.5 -34082.67
1365.75 159044.75 53014.92 279% 0.8 -37626.83
619 159663.75 39915.94 206% 1.0 -36221.07
2405 162068.75 32413.75 154% 1.3 -33916.35
614.75 162683.5 27113.92 136% 1.6 -34941.08
717.5 163401 23343.00 114% 1.9 -34631.77
253.5 163654.5 20456.81 100% 2.1 -35975.66
1396 165050.5 18338.94 96% 2.3 -37703.08
982.5 166033 16603.30 79% 2.6 -36449.46
2199.25 168232.25 15293.84 68% 3.0 -35450.77
7503 175735.25 14644.60 52% 3.6 -29152.37
2907.25 178642.5 178642.50 902% 0.3 -38443.29
3205.5 181848 90924.00 462% 0.5 -40186.68
 ajuste de tendencia
RSFE desv. Abs suma desv. Abs MAD MAPE TS

122.00 122.00 122.00 20.33 1% 6.0

234.00 234.00 356.00 50.86 2% 4.6
359.55 359.55 715.55 89.44 3% 4.0
230.29 230.29 945.84 105.09 3% 2.2
424.48 424.48 1370.32 137.03 4% 3.1
1053.69 1053.69 2424.01 220.36 5% 4.8
3430.45 3430.45 5854.46 487.87 9% 7.0
2732.06 2732.06 8586.51 8586.51 298% 0.3
1492.85 1492.85 10079.36 5039.68 175% 0.3
-934.62 934.62 11013.98 3671.33 113% -0.3
-2556.60 2556.60 13570.58 3392.65 98% -0.8
-3378.38 3378.38 16948.96 3389.79 90% -1.0
-4160.70 4160.70 21109.66 3518.28 96% -1.2
-4879.01 4879.01 25988.68 3712.67 99% -1.3
-5763.96 5763.96 31752.63 3969.08 105% -1.5
-6846.82 6846.82 38599.45 4288.83 116% -1.6
-7680.00 7680.00 46279.46 4627.95 113% -1.7
-8006.70 8006.70 54286.16 4935.11 104% -1.6
-6438.76 6438.76 60724.92 5060.41 76% -1.3
-8272.06 8272.06 68996.98 68996.98 1938% -0.1
-10741.00 10741.00 79737.98 39868.99 1115% -0.3
-14349.70 14349.70 94087.68 31362.56 743% -0.5
-17301.41 17301.41 111389.09 27847.27 650% -0.6
-19474.88 19474.88 130863.97 26172.79 570% -0.7
-21597.60 21597.60 152461.57 25410.26 542% -0.8
-23859.63 23859.63 176321.20 25188.74 544% -0.9
-26220.31 26220.31 202541.50 25317.69 528% -1.0
-29018.74 29018.74 231560.25 25728.92 555% -1.1
-31561.70 31561.70 263121.94 26312.19 519% -1.2
-33677.16 33677.16 296799.10 26981.74 470% -1.2
-33668.87 33668.87 330467.97 27539.00 346% -1.2
-37667.55 37667.55 368135.52 368135.52 8528% -0.1
-42593.74 42593.74 410729.26 205364.63 4987% -0.2
-48808.09 48808.09 459537.36 153179.12 3155% -0.3
-54127.37 54127.37 513664.73 128416.18 2569% -0.4
-58372.45 58372.45 572037.18 114407.44 2141% -0.5
-62463.41 62463.41 634500.59 105750.10 1961% -0.6
-66681.88 66681.88 701182.46 100168.92 1899% -0.7
-70970.55 70970.55 772153.02 96519.13 1776% -0.7
-75694.04 75694.04 847847.06 94205.23 1806% -0.8
 -80271.28 80271.28 928118.34 92811.83 1700% -0.9
-84202.58 84202.58 1012320.92 92029.17 1464% -0.9
-86022.81 86022.81 1098343.73 91528.64 1089% -0.9
-91649.15 91649.15 1189992.88 1189992.88 25010% -0.1
-97786.57 97786.57 1287779.45 643889.72 13103% -0.2
-105315.41 105315.41 1393094.85 464364.95 8550% -0.2
-111958.72 111958.72 1505053.58 376263.39 6874% -0.3
-117379.43 117379.43 1622433.01 324486.60 5299% -0.4
-122775.09 122775.09 1745208.10 290868.02 4826% -0.4
-128214.07 128214.07 1873422.17 267631.74 4525% -0.5
-133689.81 133689.81 2007111.98 250889.00 4018% -0.5
-139831.90 139831.90 2146943.88 238549.32 4107% -0.6
-145519.82 145519.82 2292463.70 229246.37 3597% -0.6
-150889.90 150889.90 2443353.61 222123.06 3176% -0.7
-154195.12 154195.12 2597548.73 216462.39 2400% -0.7
-161158.90 161158.90 2758707.63 2758707.63 48449% -0.1
-169056.97 169056.97 2927764.60 1463882.30 26954% -0.1
-177998.68 177998.68 3105763.27 1035254.42 16591% -0.2
-186400.89 186400.89 3292164.16 823041.04 13490% -0.2
-193341.36 193341.36 3485505.52 697101.10 10178% -0.3
-200391.69 200391.69 3685897.21 614316.20 9177% -0.3
-207194.55 207194.55 3893091.77 556155.97 8161% -0.4
-214249.44 214249.44 4107341.21 513417.65 7389% -0.4
-222009.60 222009.60 4329350.81 481038.98 7458% -0.5
-229274.23 229274.23 4558625.04 455862.50 6340% -0.5
-236272.89 236272.89 4794897.93 435899.81 5633% -0.5
-241142.46 241142.46 5036040.39 419670.03 4296% -0.6
-249517.57 249517.57 5285557.96 5285557.96 79291% 0.0
-258835.90 258835.90 5544393.86 2772196.93 43309% -0.1
-269137.97 269137.97 5813531.83 1937843.94 26619% -0.1
-278606.28 278606.28 6092138.11 1523034.53 20074% -0.2
-286894.92 286894.92 6379033.03 1275806.61 15610% -0.2
-295269.99 295269.99 6674303.02 1112383.84 13594% -0.3
-303981.74 303981.74 6978284.76 996897.82 12273% -0.3
-313128.74 313128.74 7291413.50 911426.69 10994% -0.3
-323086.04 323086.04 7614499.55 846055.51 10618% -0.4
-332719.99 332719.99 7947219.53 794721.95 9195% -0.4
-341946.79 341946.79 8289166.32 753560.57 7983% -0.5
-348919.18 348919.18 8638085.50 719840.46 6102% -0.5
-360119.39 360119.39 8998204.90 8998204.90 111226% 0.0
-372576.32 372576.32 9370781.21 4685390.61 60317% -0.1
-386078.05 386078.05 9756859.26 3252286.42 36124% -0.1
-399184.09 399184.09 10156043.36 2539010.84 28810% -0.2
-410703.27 410703.27 10566746.63 2113349.33 21738% -0.2
-422350.92 422350.92 10989097.55 1831516.26 18587% -0.2
-434156.44 434156.44 11423253.98 1631893.43 16684% -0.3
-446445.70 446445.70 11869699.68 1483712.46 14903% -0.3
-459709.76 459709.76 12329409.44 1369934.38 14279% -0.3
 -472788.61 472788.61 12802198.05 1280219.80 12524% -0.4
-485427.44 485427.44 13287625.48 1207965.95 10853% -0.4
-494320.35 494320.35 13781945.83 1148495.49 7649% -0.4
-509551.73 509551.73 14291497.56 14291497.56 155410% 0.0
-525542.88 525542.88 14817040.44 7408520.22 78463% -0.1
-543538.91 543538.91 15360579.35 5120193.12 47555% -0.1
-560830.48 560830.48 15921409.82 3980352.46 38446% -0.1
-576373.18 576373.18 16497783.00 3299556.60 29028% -0.2
-591808.24 591808.24 17089591.25 2848265.21 24245% -0.2
-607330.90 607330.90 17696922.14 2528131.73 21775% -0.2
-623188.32 623188.32 18320110.46 2290013.81 19254% -0.3
-640323.40 640323.40 18960433.86 2106714.87 18547% -0.3
-657311.92 657311.92 19617745.78 1961774.58 16335% -0.3
-673741.59 673741.59 20291487.37 1844680.67 14021% -0.4
-686723.02 686723.02 20978210.39 1748184.20 10451% -0.4
-705736.82 705736.82 21683947.21 21683947.21 193313% 0.0
-726190.25 726190.25 22410137.46 11205068.73 102423% -0.1
-748420.95 748420.95 23158558.41 7719519.47 62184% -0.1
-769439.51 769439.51 23927997.93 5981999.48 47307% -0.1
-788620.11 788620.11 24716618.04 4943323.61 36568% -0.2
-807854.84 807854.84 25524472.87 4254078.81 31165% -0.2
-827570.62 827570.62 26352043.49 3764577.64 27952% -0.2
-847443.10 847443.10 27199486.59 3399935.82 24082% -0.2
-868959.73 868959.73 28068446.32 3118716.26 23618% -0.3
-890068.98 890068.98 28958515.30 2895851.53 20569% -0.3
-910248.04 910248.04 29868763.33 2715342.12 17180% -0.3
-926224.28 926224.28 30794987.61 2566248.97 12799% -0.4
-949647.17 949647.17 31744634.78 31744634.78 240362% 0.0
-974657.09 974657.09 32719291.87 16359645.94 123712% -0.1
-1001594.12 1001594.12 33720885.99 11240295.33 73274% -0.1
-1028138.05 1028138.05 34749024.04 8687256.01 59834% -0.1
-1052096.74 1052096.74 35801120.78 7160224.16 44352% -0.1
-1076724.64 1076724.64 36877845.42 6146307.57 38219% -0.2
-1101713.66 1101713.66 37979559.08 5425651.30 34618% -0.2
-1126982.63 1126982.63 39106541.71 4888317.71 29787% -0.2
-1154681.65 1154681.65 40261223.36 4473469.26 30318% -0.3
-1181556.07 1181556.07 41442779.43 4144277.94 26011% -0.3
-1206935.91 1206935.91 42649715.34 3877246.85 21315% -0.3
-1227907.28 1227907.28 43877622.62 3656468.55 16521% -0.3
-1256230.17 1256230.17 45133852.79 45133852.79 297462% 0.0
-1286158.14 1286158.14 46420010.93 23210005.46 151215% -0.1
-1318420.26 1318420.26 47738431.19 15912810.40 93594% -0.1
-1349990.76 1349990.76 49088421.94 12272105.49 75013% -0.1
-1378893.76 1378893.76 50467315.70 10093463.14 55842% -0.1
-1408559.20 1408559.20 51875874.90 8645979.15 49055% -0.2
-1437903.31 1437903.31 53313778.22 7616254.03 42838% -0.2
-1467049.30 1467049.30 54780827.52 6847603.44 36120% -0.2
-1498838.49 1498838.49 56279666.01 6253296.22 37206% -0.2
-1529682.54 1529682.54 57809348.55 5780934.86 31683% -0.3
-1559462.03 1559462.03 59368810.59 5397164.60 26364% -0.3
-1584381.53 1584381.53 60953192.11 5079432.68 20430% -0.3
-1616827.17 1616827.17 62570019.29 62570019.29 349612% 0.0
-1650909.84 1650909.84 64220929.12 32110464.56 176868% -0.1
-1688536.67 1688536.67 65909465.79 21969821.93 115746% -0.1
-1724757.74 1724757.74 67634223.53 16908555.88 87360% -0.1
-1758674.09 1758674.09 69392897.62 13878579.52 66082% -0.1
-1793615.17 1793615.17 71186512.79 11864418.80 59358% -0.2
-1828246.94 1828246.94 73014759.73 10430679.96 50760% -0.2
-1864222.60 1864222.60 74878982.33 9359872.79 45709% -0.2
-1901925.68 1901925.68 76780908.01 8531212.00 44647% -0.2
-1938375.14 1938375.14 78719283.15 7871928.31 37462% -0.2
-1973825.91 1973825.91 80693109.06 7335737.19 32624% -0.3
-2002978.28 2002978.28 82696087.35 6891340.61 24373% -0.3
-2041421.58 2041421.58 84737508.92 84737508.92 427686% 0.0
-2081608.26 2081608.26 86819117.18 43409558.59 220454% 0.0
 PMP
desviacion RSFE desv. Abs suma desv. AMAD MAPE

306.2 306.2 306.2 306.2 51.03 2%

106 412.2 412.2 718.4 102.63 3%
229 641.2 641.2 1359.6 169.95 5%
-31.8 609.4 609.4 1969 218.78 7%
221.4 830.8 830.8 2799.8 279.98 8%
881.8 1712.6 1712.6 4512.4 410.22 10%
2475 4187.6 4187.6 8700 725.00 13%
-686.2 3501.4 3501.4 12201.4 12201.40 424%
-1514 1987.4 1987.4 14188.8 7094.40 246%
-527.6 1459.8 1459.8 15648.6 5216.20 160%
-225.4 1234.4 1234.4 16883 4220.75 122%
167.2 1401.6 1401.6 18284.6 3656.92 97%
481.2 1882.8 1882.8 20167.4 3361.23 92%
315 2197.8 2197.8 22365.2 3195.03 85%
228.4 2426.2 2426.2 24791.4 3098.93 82%
23.4 2449.6 2449.6 27241 3026.78 82%
329 2778.6 2778.6 30019.6 3001.96 74%
1007 3785.6 3785.6 33805.2 3073.20 65%
2792.4 6578 6578 40383.2 3365.27 50%
-645.4 5932.6 5932.6 46315.8 46315.80 1301%
-1595.4 4337.2 4337.2 50653 25326.50 708%
-300.2 4037 4037 54690 18230.00 432%
-139.8 3897.2 3897.2 58587.2 14646.80 342%
144.6 4041.8 4041.8 62629 12525.80 273%
707.2 4749 4749 67378 11229.67 239%
376 5125 5125 72503 10357.57 224%
299.4 5424.4 5424.4 77927.4 9740.92 203%
67 5491.4 5491.4 83418.8 9268.76 200%
366.2 5857.6 5857.6 89276.4 8927.64 176%
1070.2 6927.8 6927.8 96204.2 8745.84 152%
3127 10054.8 10054.8 106259 8854.92 111%
-880.2 9174.6 9174.6 115433.6 115433.60 2674%
-2157 7017.6 7017.6 122451.2 61225.60 1487%
-627.4 6390.2 6390.2 128841.4 42947.13 885%
-253.8 6136.4 6136.4 134977.8 33744.45 675%
121 6257.4 6257.4 141235.2 28247.04 529%
734.4 6991.8 6991.8 148227 24704.50 458%
342.4 7334.2 7334.2 155561.2 22223.03 421%
238.8 7573 7573 163134.2 20391.78 375%
-39.4 7533.6 7533.6 170667.8 18963.09 363%
 84.2 7617.8 7617.8 178285.6 17828.56 327%
981 8598.8 8598.8 186884.4 16989.49 270%
3033.8 11632.6 11632.6 198517 16543.08 197%
-979.6 10653 10653 209170 209170.00 4396%
-1840.2 8812.8 8812.8 217982.8 108991.40 2218%
-502.4 8310.4 8310.4 226293.2 75431.07 1389%
-381.4 7929 7929 234222.2 58555.55 1070%
336.6 8265.6 8265.6 242487.8 48497.56 792%
816.8 9082.4 9082.4 251570.2 41928.37 696%
300.6 9383 9383 260953.2 37279.03 630%
427.4 9810.4 9810.4 270763.6 33845.45 542%
-82.6 9727.8 9727.8 280491.4 31165.71 537%
262.4 9990.2 9990.2 290481.6 29048.16 456%
1033.8 11024 11024 301505.6 27409.60 392%
2875.6 13899.6 13899.6 315405.2 26283.77 291%
-788.6 13111 13111 328516.2 328516.20 5770%
-2011.2 11099.8 11099.8 339616 169808.00 3127%
-514.6 10585.2 10585.2 350201.2 116733.73 1871%
-412.6 10172.6 10172.6 360373.8 90093.45 1477%
324.4 10497 10497 370870.8 74174.16 1083%
780.6 11277.6 11277.6 382148.4 63691.40 951%
521 11798.6 11798.6 393947 56278.14 826%
432.4 12231 12231 406178 50772.25 731%
-204.8 12026.2 12026.2 418204.2 46467.13 720%
339.2 12365.4 12365.4 430569.6 43056.96 599%
1066.6 13432 13432 444001.6 40363.78 522%
2850.4 16282.4 16282.4 460284 38357.00 393%
-546.8 15735.6 15735.6 476019.6 476019.60 7141%
-1782.2 13953.4 13953.4 489973 244986.50 3827%
-325.8 13627.6 13627.6 503600.6 167866.87 2306%
192 13819.6 13819.6 517420.2 129355.05 1705%
693.8 14513.4 14513.4 531933.6 106386.72 1302%
1078.8 15592.2 15592.2 547525.8 91254.30 1115%
600.2 16192.4 16192.4 563718.2 80531.17 991%
408.8 16601.2 16601.2 580319.4 72539.92 875%
-69.8 16531.4 16531.4 596850.8 66316.76 832%
431.2 16962.6 16962.6 613813.4 61381.34 710%
1333.6 18296.2 18296.2 632109.6 57464.51 609%
3463.6 21759.8 21759.8 653869.4 54489.12 462%
-666.2 21093.6 21093.6 674963 674963.00 8343%
-2161 18932.6 18932.6 693895.6 346947.80 4466%
-209 18723.6 18723.6 712619.2 237539.73 2638%
-159.6 18564 18564 731183.2 182795.80 2074%
589.8 19153.8 19153.8 750337 150067.40 1544%
1356.6 20510.4 20510.4 770847.4 128474.57 1304%
775.4 21285.8 21285.8 792133.2 113161.89 1157%
506.8 21792.6 21792.6 813925.8 101740.73 1022%
3.8 21796.4 21796.4 835722.2 92858.02 968%
 368.2 22164.6 22164.6 857886.8 85788.68 839%
1374.2 23538.8 23538.8 881425.6 80129.60 720%
5060 28598.8 28598.8 910024.4 75835.37 505%
-1210.4 27388.4 27388.4 937412.8 937412.80 10194%
-2753.2 24635.2 24635.2 962048 481024.00 5095%
-184.8 24450.4 24450.4 986498.4 328832.80 3054%
-492 23958.4 23958.4 1010456.8 252614.20 2440%
329.6 24288 24288 1034744.8 206948.96 1821%
1725.8 26013.8 26013.8 1060758.6 176793.10 1505%
950.8 26964.6 26964.6 1087723.2 155389.03 1338%
697.4 27662 27662 1115385.2 139423.15 1172%
21.4 27683.4 27683.4 1143068.6 127007.62 1118%
307.4 27990.8 27990.8 1171059.4 117105.94 975%
1563 29553.8 29553.8 1200613.2 109146.65 830%
4951.4 34505.2 34505.2 1235118.4 102926.53 615%
-1098.4 33406.8 33406.8 1268525.2 1268525.20 11309%
-3056.4 30350.4 30350.4 1298875.6 649437.80 5936%
-451.8 29898.6 29898.6 1328774.2 442924.73 3568%
48.6 29947.2 29947.2 1358721.4 339680.35 2686%
775.4 30722.6 30722.6 1389444 277888.80 2056%
1677.8 32400.4 32400.4 1421844.4 236974.07 1736%
861 33261.4 33261.4 1455105.8 207872.26 1543%
942.6 34204 34204 1489309.8 186163.73 1319%
-144.8 34059.2 34059.2 1523369 169263.22 1282%
304.6 34363.8 34363.8 1557732.8 155773.28 1106%
2275.8 36639.6 36639.6 1594372.4 144942.95 917%
6261.2 42900.8 42900.8 1637273.2 136439.43 680%
-1395.4 41505.4 41505.4 1678778.6 1678778.60 12711%
-3414.2 38091.2 38091.2 1716869.8 858434.90 6491%
70.2 38161.4 38161.4 1755031.2 585010.40 3814%
-583.2 37578.2 37578.2 1792609.4 448152.35 3087%
711.6 38289.8 38289.8 1830899.2 366179.84 2268%
1920.2 40210 40210 1871109.2 311851.53 1939%
598.8 40808.8 40808.8 1911918 273131.14 1743%
777.6 41586.4 41586.4 1953504.4 244188.05 1488%
-863.2 40723.2 40723.2 1994227.6 221580.84 1502%
-211.2 40512 40512 2034739.6 203473.96 1277%
2654.8 43166.8 43166.8 2077906.4 188900.58 1038%
6391 49557.8 49557.8 2127464.2 177288.68 801%
-1522.8 48035 48035 2175499.2 2175499.20 14338%
-3279.4 44755.6 44755.6 2220254.8 1110127.40 7233%
-318.2 44437.4 44437.4 2264692.2 754897.40 4440%
-878.6 43558.8 43558.8 2308251 577062.75 3527%
743.4 44302.2 44302.2 2352553.2 470510.64 2603%
1576.2 45878.4 45878.4 2398431.6 399738.60 2268%
806.8 46685.2 46685.2 2445116.8 349302.40 1965%
1620.6 48305.8 48305.8 2493422.6 311677.83 1644%
-716.6 47589.2 47589.2 2541011.8 282334.64 1680%
 -33 47556.2 47556.2 2588568 258856.80 1419%
2876.8 50433 50433 2639001 239909.18 1172%
6855.8 57288.8 57288.8 2696289.8 224690.82 904%
-1094 56194.8 56194.8 2752484.6 2752484.60 15380%
-2895.2 53299.6 53299.6 2805784.2 1402892.10 7727%
-894 52405.6 52405.6 2858189.8 952729.93 5019%
-553.4 51852.2 51852.2 2910042 727510.50 3759%
1226.6 53078.8 53078.8 2963120.8 592624.16 2822%
1239.4 54318.2 54318.2 3017439 502906.50 2516%
850 55168.2 55168.2 3072607.2 438943.89 2136%
614.2 55782.4 55782.4 3128389.6 391048.70 1910%
-1180.6 54601.8 54601.8 3182991.4 353665.71 1851%
514.4 55116.2 55116.2 3238107.6 323810.76 1541%
2640 57756.2 57756.2 3295863.8 299623.98 1332%
7842 65598.2 65598.2 3361462 280121.83 991%
-1301 64297.2 64297.2 3425759.2 3425759.20 17290%
-4140 60157.2 60157.2 3485916.4 1742958.20 8852%
TS

6.0
4.0
3.8
2.8
3.0
4.2
5.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.2
2.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.8
1.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.7
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
 4
sin. Estacionaerror 1 con.est error 2 ind. Est error abs

2754.75 230.25 2754.75

2924.25 333.75 2924.25
3047 60 3047
3111.75 -14.75 3111.75
3187.5 100.5 3187.5 90.5 3187.5
3142.25 -65.25 3142.25 145.75 3142.25
3222.75 206.25 3222.75 145.75 3222.75
3451.25 559.75 3451.25 22.25 3451.25
4064 1675 4064 53 4064
4014 -1137 4014 1725 4014
3878 -993 3878 1001 3878
3690 -431 3690 805 3690
3118.75 335.25 2888.5 370.5 230.25 3118.75
3342.25 428.75 3008.5 445.5 333.75 3342.25
3537.75 129.25 3477.75 293.25 60 3537.75
3658.75 84.25 3673.5 6.5 -14.75 3658.75
3743.25 48.75 3642.75 100.25 100.5 3743.25
3725.25 -26.25 3790.5 1.5 -65.25 3725.25
3829 253 3622.75 76.25 206.25 3829
4075 652 3515.25 566.75 559.75 4075
4795 1877 3120 1607 1675 4795
4760.25 -1200.25 5897.25 774.75 -1137 4760.25
4633.5 -1058.5 5626.5 2066.5 -993 4633.5
4506.75 -286.75 4937.75 1362.75 -431 4506.75
3909.25 372.75 3574 646 335.25 3909.25
4167.75 426.25 3739 543 428.75 4167.75
4446.75 244.25 4317.5 276.5 129.25 4446.75
4549 80 4464.75 226.25 84.25 4549
4677.25 117.75 4628.5 0.5 48.75 4677.25
4686.75 -54.75 4713 82 -26.25 4686.75
4780.75 286.25 4527.75 104.25 253 4780.75
5060 686 4408 659 652 5060
5852.5 2112.5 3975.5 1770.5 1877 5852.5
5773.75 -1456.75 6974 991 -1200.25 5773.75
5536.5 -1418.5 6595 2278 -1058.5 5536.5
5313.75 -458.75 5600.5 1482.5 -286.75 5313.75
4572.25 426.75 4199.5 655.5 372.75 4572.25
4828.75 514.25 4402.5 596.5 426.25 4828.75
5147.25 244.75 4903 440 244.25 5147.25
5252 22 5172 220 80 5252
 5361 74 5243.25 30.75 117.75 5361
5329.5 -112.5 5384.25 50.75 -54.75 5329.5
5346.5 113.5 5060.25 156.75 286.25 5346.5
5600 688 4914 546 686 5600
6342 2061 4229.5 2058.5 2112.5 6342
6227.25 -1469.25 7684 719 -1456.75 6227.25
6090.75 -1176.75 7509.25 2751.25 -1418.5 6090.75
5876.5 -445.5 6335.25 1421.25 -458.75 5876.5
5144.25 329.75 4717.5 713.5 426.75 5144.25
5485.75 638.25 4971.5 502.5 514.25 5485.75
5764 263 5519.25 604.75 244.75 5764
5884.75 29.25 5862.75 164.25 22 5884.75
6077.25 166.75 6003.25 89.25 74 6077.25
5998.25 -190.25 6110.75 133.25 -112.5 5998.25
6084.75 288.25 5971.25 163.25 113.5 6084.75
6354.75 639.25 5666.75 706.25 688 6354.75
7048.25 1969.75 4987.25 2006.75 2061 7048.25
7019.75 -1325.75 8489 529 -1469.25 7019.75
6784.25 -1353.25 7961 2267 -1176.75 6784.25
6595.75 -355.75 7041.25 1610.25 -445.5 6595.75
5866.5 234.5 5536.75 703.25 329.75 5866.5
6155.25 693.75 5517 584 638.25 6155.25
6471 223 6208 641 263 6471
6614.75 200.25 6585.5 108.5 29.25 6614.75
6826.5 121.5 6659.75 155.25 166.75 6826.5
6726.75 -276.75 6917 31 -190.25 6726.75
6850.75 339.25 6562.5 112.5 288.25 6850.75
7081.5 656.5 6442.25 747.75 639.25 7081.5
7786.75 1982.25 5817 1921 1969.75 7786.75
7840.75 -1174.75 9166.5 602.5 -1325.75 7840.75
7643.5 -1242.5 8996.75 2330.75 -1353.25 7643.5
7529 -249 7884.75 1483.75 -355.75 7529
6983.5 603.5 6749 531 234.5 6983.5
7360.25 812.75 6666.5 920.5 693.75 7360.25
7805.75 377.25 7582.75 590.25 223 7805.75
8016.5 106.5 7816.25 366.75 200.25 8016.5
8192.25 97.75 8070.75 52.25 121.5 8192.25
8141 -173 8417.75 127.75 -276.75 8141
8256 387 7916.75 51.25 339.25 8256
8585.25 854.75 7928.75 714.25 656.5 8585.25
9462 2335 7479.75 1960.25 1982.25 9462
9492.5 -1402.5 10667.25 1129.75 -1174.75 9492.5
9273.75 -1505.75 10516.25 2426.25 -1242.5 9273.75
9164.5 -161.5 9413.5 1645.5 -249 9164.5
8418.5 394.5 7815 1188 603.5 8418.5
 8826.5 895.5 8013.75 799.25 812.75 8826.5
9348 506 8970.75 751.25 377.25 9348
9542.5 238.5 9436 418 106.5 9542.5
9828.25 127.75 9730.5 50.5 97.75 9828.25
9796.25 -202.25 9969.25 13.25 -173 9796.25
9888.25 333.75 9501.25 92.75 387 9888.25
10225.5 904.5 9370.75 851.25 854.75 10225.5
11490.25 3524.75 9155.25 1974.75 2335 11490.25
11390.75 -2194.75 12793.25 2221.75 -1402.5 11390.75
11195.75 -1753.75 12701.5 3505.5 -1505.75 11195.75
11105 -338 11266.5 1824.5 -161.5 11105
9939.5 413.5 9545 1222 394.5 9939.5
10482.25 884.75 9586.75 766.25 895.5 10482.25
11058.75 689.25 10552.75 814.25 506 11058.75
11269.5 340.5 11031 717 238.5 11269.5
11654.75 239.25 11527 83 127.75 11654.75
11652.75 -293.75 11855 39 -202.25 11652.75
11718.25 291.75 11384.5 25.5 333.75 11718.25
12105 1052 11200.5 809.5 904.5 12105
13313.5 3414.5 9788.75 3368.25 3524.75 13313.5
13278 -2061 15472.75 1255.25 -2194.75 13278
13010.5 -2070.5 14764.25 3547.25 -1753.75 13010.5
12824.75 -410.75 13162.75 2222.75 -338 12824.75
11804 841 11390.5 1023.5 413.5 11804
12379.25 1138.75 11494.5 1150.5 884.75 12379.25
13056.75 593.25 12367.5 1150.5 689.25 13056.75
13320.25 147.75 12979.75 670.25 340.5 13320.25
13688.5 429.5 13449.25 18.75 239.25 13688.5
13610.25 -405.25 13904 214 -293.75 13610.25
13717.5 361.5 13425.75 220.75 291.75 13717.5
14301.75 1503.25 13249.75 829.25 1052 14301.75
15785 4266 12370.5 3434.5 3414.5 15785
15785.5 -2578.5 17846.5 2204.5 -2061 15785.5
15571.75 -2347.75 17642.25 4435.25 -2070.5 15571.75
15455.5 -115.5 15866.25 2642.25 -410.75 15455.5
14072.5 446.5 13231.5 2108.5 841 14072.5
14806.75 1337.25 13668 851 1138.75 14806.75
15521.25 560.75 14928 1216 593.25 15521.25
15604.5 68.5 15456.75 625.25 147.75 15604.5
16077.5 333.5 15648 25 429.5 16077.5
15730.25 -975.25 16135.5 275.5 -405.25 15730.25
15693 240 15331.5 576.5 361.5 15693
16322.25 1867.75 14819 1114 1503.25 16322.25
17752.5 4379.5 13486.5 4703.5 4266 17752.5
17857 -2684 20435.5 1696.5 -2578.5 17857
 17711 -2362 20058.75 4885.75 -2347.75 17711
17414 -412 17529.5 2180.5 -115.5 17414
15971 389 15524.5 1477.5 446.5 15971
16696.5 1378.5 15359.25 1000.75 1337.25 16696.5
17265.5 359.5 16704.75 1370.25 560.75 17265.5
17459.75 319.25 17391.25 233.75 68.5 17459.75
18109.25 848.75 17775.75 3.25 333.5 18109.25
17792.25 -985.25 18767.5 190.5 -975.25 17792.25
17947.5 298.5 17707.5 900.5 240 17947.5
18620.75 1851.25 16753 1493 1867.75 18620.75
20097 4766 15717.5 4754.5 4379.5 20097
20369.5 -2472.5 23053.5 1809.5 -2684 20369.5
20346.75 -2191.75 22708.75 4811.75 -2362 20346.75
19974 -993 20386 2231 -412 19974
18597 758 18208 773 389 18597
19373.25 1628.75 17994.75 1360.25 1378.5 19373.25
19831.5 156.5 19472 1530 359.5 19831.5
20223.5 325.5 19904.25 83.75 319.25 20223.5
20504 -27 19655.25 893.75 848.75 20504
20030.5 -922.5 21015.75 538.75 -985.25 20030.5
20286.75 726.25 19988.25 880.25 298.5 20286.75
20771 1715 18919.75 2093.25 1851.25 20771
22720.25 5553.75 17954.25 4531.75 4766 22720.25
22896.5 -3083.5 25369 2905 -2472.5 22896.5
22566 -2875 24757.75 4944.75 -2191.75 22566
MAD MAPE TS RSFE
 Fecha Ventas T SCI S TCI CI
1 Jan-92 2580 2611.71 0.9879 0.8921 2891.95 1.1073
2 Feb-92 2616 2658.46 0.9840 0.8883 2944.93 1.1078
3 Mar-92 2838 2705.21 1.0491 0.9038 3140.13 1.1608
4 Apr-92 2985 2751.96 1.0847 0.8984 3322.64 1.2074
5 May-92 3258 2798.72 1.1641 0.9830 3314.35 1.1842
6 Jun-92 3107 2845.47 1.0919 0.9735 3191.47 1.1216
7 Jul-92 3097 2892.22 1.0708 0.9716 3187.56 1.1021
8 Aug-92 3288 2938.97 1.1188 1.0035 3276.59 1.1149
9 Sep-92 3077 2985.73 1.0306 0.9349 3291.28 1.1023
10 Oct-92 3429 3032.48 1.1308 1.0122 3387.51 1.1171
11 Nov-92 4011 3079.23 1.3026 1.1232 3571.13 1.1597
12 Dec-92 5739 3125.98 1.8359 1.4324 4006.66 1.2817
13 Jan-93 2877 3172.74 0.9068 0.9409 3057.60 0.9637
14 Feb-93 2885 3219.49 0.8961 0.9365 3080.49 0.9568
15 Mar-93 3259 3266.24 0.9978 0.9555 3410.86 1.0443
16 Apr-93 3454 3312.99 1.0426 0.9484 3641.91 1.0993
17 May-93 3771 3359.75 1.1224 1.0378 3633.66 1.0815
18 Jun-93 3667 3406.50 1.0765 1.0288 3564.35 1.0463
19 Jul-93 3743 3453.25 1.0839 1.0268 3645.39 1.0556
20 Aug-93 3792 3500.00 1.0834 1.0597 3578.24 1.0224
21 Sep-93 3699 3546.76 1.0429 0.9872 3747.00 1.0565
22 Oct-93 4082 3593.51 1.1359 1.0681 3821.88 1.0635
23 Nov-93 4727 3640.26 1.2985 1.1834 3994.47 1.0973
24 Dec-93 6672 3687.01 1.8096 1.5040 4436.29 1.2032
25 Jan-94 3560 3733.77 0.9535 0.9954 3576.46 0.9579
26 Feb-94 3575 3780.52 0.9456 0.9906 3609.03 0.9546
27 Mar-94 4220 3827.27 1.1026 1.0127 4166.89 1.0887
28 Apr-94 4282 3874.02 1.1053 1.0033 4268.10 1.1017
29 May-94 4594 3920.78 1.1717 1.0979 4184.35 1.0672
30 Jun-94 4691 3967.53 1.1823 1.0890 4307.50 1.0857
31 Jul-94 4629 4014.28 1.1531 1.0861 4261.91 1.0617
32 Aug-94 4795 4061.03 1.1807 1.1216 4274.97 1.0527
33 Sep-94 4632 4107.79 1.1276 1.0433 4439.56 1.0808
34 Oct-94 5067 4154.54 1.2196 1.1281 4491.65 1.0811
35 Nov-94 5746 4201.29 1.3677 1.2480 4604.01 1.0959
36 Dec-94 7965 4248.04 1.8750 1.5801 5040.83 1.1866
37 Jan-95 4317 4294.80 1.0052 1.0536 4097.53 0.9541
38 Feb-95 4118 4341.55 0.9485 1.0482 3928.79 0.9049
39 Mar-95 4855 4388.30 1.1064 1.0719 4529.46 1.0322
40 Apr-95 4999 4435.05 1.1272 1.0608 4712.42 1.0625
41 May-95 5343 4481.81 1.1922 1.1618 4598.88 1.0261
42 Jun-95 5392 4528.56 1.1907 1.1511 4684.31 1.0344
43 Jul-95 5274 4575.31 1.1527 1.1485 4592.03 1.0037
44 Aug-95 5435 4622.06 1.1759 1.1859 4582.95 0.9915
45 Sep-95 5217 4668.82 1.1174 1.1014 4736.63 1.0145
46 Oct-95 5460 4715.57 1.1579 1.1903 4587.11 0.9728
47 Nov-95 6288 4762.32 1.3204 1.3155 4780.10 1.0037
48 Dec-95 8403 4809.07 1.7473 1.6586 5066.47 1.0535
49 Jan-96 4758 4855.83 0.9799 1.1158 4264.21 0.8782
50 Feb-96 4914 4902.58 1.0023 1.1118 4419.69 0.9015
51 Mar-96 5431 4949.33 1.0973 1.1371 4776.24 0.9650
52 Apr-96 5474 4996.08 1.0957 1.1232 4873.56 0.9755
53 May-96 6124 5042.83 1.2144 1.2316 4972.40 0.9860
54 Jun-96 6027 5089.59 1.1842 1.2191 4943.67 0.9713
55 Jul-96 5914 5136.34 1.1514 1.2176 4857.13 0.9456
56 Aug-96 6244 5183.09 1.2047 1.2574 4965.93 0.9581
57 Sep-96 5808 5229.84 1.1105 1.1659 4981.57 0.9525
58 Oct-96 6373 5276.60 1.2078 1.2620 5050.12 0.9571
59 Nov-96 6994 5323.35 1.3138 1.3918 5025.03 0.9440
60 Dec-96 9018 5370.10 1.6793 1.7496 5154.39 0.9598
61 Jan-97 5694 5416.85 1.0512 1.1870 4797.08 0.8856
62 Feb-97 5431 5463.61 0.9940 1.1808 4599.24 0.8418
63 Mar-97 6240 5510.36 1.1324 1.2114 5151.00 0.9348
64 Apr-97 6101 5557.11 1.0979 1.1953 5104.34 0.9185
65 May-97 6849 5603.86 1.2222 1.3091 5231.89 0.9336
66 Jun-97 6694 5650.62 1.1846 1.2963 5164.02 0.9139
67 Jul-97 6815 5697.37 1.1962 1.2960 5258.68 0.9230
68 Aug-97 6948 5744.12 1.2096 1.3366 5198.34 0.9050
69 Sep-97 6450 5790.87 1.1138 1.2391 5205.31 0.8989
70 Oct-97 7190 5837.63 1.2317 1.3401 5365.17 0.9191
71 Nov-97 7738 5884.38 1.3150 1.4785 5233.72 0.8894
72 Dec-97 9769 5931.13 1.6471 1.8557 5264.37 0.8876
73 Jan-98 6666 5977.88 1.1151 1.2643 5272.68 0.8820
74 Feb-98 6401 6024.64 1.0625 1.2606 5077.56 0.8428
75 Mar-98 7280 6071.39 1.1991 1.2954 5619.73 0.9256
76 Apr-98 7587 6118.14 1.2401 1.2790 5932.19 0.9696
77 May-98 8173 6164.89 1.3257 1.3984 5844.66 0.9481
78 Jun-98 8183 6211.65 1.3174 1.3859 5904.28 0.9505
79 Jul-98 8123 6258.40 1.2979 1.3838 5869.87 0.9379
80 Aug-98 8290 6305.15 1.3148 1.4284 5803.78 0.9205
81 Sep-98 7968 6351.90 1.2544 1.3241 6017.66 0.9474
82 Oct-98 8643 6398.66 1.3508 1.4290 6048.38 0.9453
83 Nov-98 9440 6445.41 1.4646 1.5793 5977.38 0.9274
84 Dec-98 11797 6492.16 1.8171 1.9814 5953.91 0.9171
85 Jan-99 8090 6538.91 1.2372 1.3497 5993.73 0.9166
86 Feb-99 7768 6585.67 1.1795 1.3494 5756.63 0.8741
87 Mar-99 9003 6632.42 1.3574 1.3902 6476.28 0.9765
88 Apr-99 8813 6679.17 1.3195 1.3658 6452.57 0.9661
89 May-99 9722 6725.92 1.4455 1.4954 6501.37 0.9666
 90 Jun-99 9854 6772.68 1.4550 1.4807 6654.91 0.9826
91 Jul-99 9781 6819.43 1.4343 1.4793 6612.08 0.9696
92 Aug-99 9956 6866.18 1.4500 1.5284 6513.84 0.9487
93 Sep-99 9594 6912.93 1.3878 1.4121 6793.94 0.9828
94 Oct-99 10222 6959.69 1.4687 1.5233 6710.60 0.9642
95 Nov-99 11130 7006.44 1.5885 1.6854 6603.96 0.9426
96 Dec-99 15015 7053.19 2.1288 2.1152 7098.51 1.0064
97 Jan-00 9196 7099.94 1.2952 1.4400 6386.00 0.8994
98 Feb-00 9442 7146.70 1.3212 1.4450 6534.32 0.9143
99 Mar-00 10767 7193.45 1.4968 1.4883 7234.27 1.0057
100 Apr-00 10353 7240.20 1.4299 1.4629 7076.93 0.9775
101 May-00 11367 7286.95 1.5599 1.6002 7103.31 0.9748
102 Jun-00 11748 7333.71 1.6019 1.5800 7435.42 1.0139
103 Jul-00 11610 7380.46 1.5731 1.5797 7349.38 0.9958
104 Aug-00 11894 7427.21 1.6014 1.6352 7273.55 0.9793
105 Sep-00 11359 7473.96 1.5198 1.5029 7557.98 1.0112
106 Oct-00 12010 7520.72 1.5969 1.6237 7396.63 0.9835
107 Nov-00 13157 7567.47 1.7386 1.8001 7309.10 0.9659
108 Dec-00 16728 7614.22 2.1969 2.2383 7473.43 0.9815
109 Jan-01 11217 7660.97 1.4642 1.5443 7263.36 0.9481
110 Feb-01 10940 7707.73 1.4194 1.5454 7079.24 0.9185
111 Mar-01 12414 7754.48 1.6009 1.5916 7799.92 1.0059
112 Apr-01 12645 7801.23 1.6209 1.5701 8053.47 1.0323
113 May-01 13518 7847.98 1.7225 1.7165 7875.52 1.0035
114 Jun-01 13650 7894.74 1.7290 1.6816 8117.03 1.0282
115 Jul-01 13468 7941.49 1.6959 1.6847 7994.08 1.0066
116 Aug-01 14118 7988.24 1.7673 1.7470 8081.06 1.0116
117 Sep-01 13205 8034.99 1.6434 1.5950 8278.99 1.0304
118 Oct-01 14079 8081.74 1.7421 1.7297 8139.36 1.0071
119 Nov-01 15805 8128.50 1.9444 1.9216 8225.05 1.0119
120 Dec-01 20051 8175.25 2.4526 2.3802 8424.07 1.0304
121 Jan-02 13207 8222.00 1.6063 1.6503 8002.73 0.9733
122 Feb-02 13224 8268.75 1.5993 1.6585 7973.34 0.9643
123 Mar-02 15340 8315.51 1.8447 1.7088 8977.27 1.0796
124 Apr-02 14519 8362.26 1.7363 1.6725 8681.01 1.0381
125 May-02 16144 8409.01 1.9198 1.8385 8780.88 1.0442
126 Jun-02 16082 8455.76 1.9019 1.7877 8995.75 1.0639
127 Jul-02 15673 8502.52 1.8433 1.7979 8717.29 1.0253
128 Aug-02 16411 8549.27 1.9196 1.8593 8826.21 1.0324
129 Sep-02 14755 8596.02 1.7165 1.6870 8746.20 1.0175
130 Oct-02 15933 8642.77 1.8435 1.8376 8670.67 1.0032
131 Nov-02 18190 8689.53 2.0933 2.0359 8934.73 1.0282
132 Dec-02 22132 8736.28 2.5333 2.5060 8831.52 1.0109
133 Jan-03 15173 8783.03 1.7275 1.7607 8617.60 0.9812
134 Feb-03 15349 8829.78 1.7383 1.7711 8666.43 0.9815
 135 Mar-03 17002 8876.54 1.9154 1.7970 9461.12 1.0659
136 Apr-03 16360 8923.29 1.8334 1.7837 9172.18 1.0279
137 May-03 18075 8970.04 2.0150 1.9516 9261.83 1.0325
138 Jun-03 17625 9016.79 1.9547 1.8784 9382.77 1.0406
139 Jul-03 17779 9063.55 1.9616 1.9142 9288.19 1.0248
140 Aug-03 18958 9110.30 2.0809 1.9694 9626.10 1.0566
141 Sep-03 16807 9157.05 1.8354 1.7936 9370.31 1.0233
142 Oct-03 18246 9203.80 1.9824 1.9606 9306.11 1.0111
143 Nov-03 20472 9250.56 2.2131 2.1454 9542.37 1.0315
144 Dec-03 24863 9297.31 2.6742 2.6537 9369.07 1.0077
145 Jan-04 17897 9344.06 1.9153 1.8833 9503.06 1.0170
146 Feb-04 18155 9390.81 1.9333 1.8901 9605.41 1.0229
147 Mar-04 18981 9437.57 2.0112 1.8959 10011.75 1.0608
148 Apr-04 19355 9484.32 2.0407 1.9332 10011.75 1.0556
149 May-04 21002 9531.07 2.2035 2.0977 10011.75 1.0504
150 Jun-04 19988 9577.82 2.0869 1.9965 10011.75 1.0453
151 Jul-04 20549 9624.58 2.1351 2.0525 10011.75 1.0402
152 Aug-04 20477 9671.33 2.1173 2.0453 10011.75 1.0352
153 Sep-04 19108 9718.08 1.9662 1.9086 10011.75 1.0302
154 Oct-04 21013 9764.83 2.1519 2.0988 10011.75 1.0253
155 Nov-04 22486 9811.59 2.2918 2.2460 10011.75 1.0204
156 Dec-04 28274 9858.34 2.8680 2.8241 10011.75 1.0156
157 Jan-05 19813 9905.09 2.0003 1.9790 10011.75 1.0108
158 Feb-05 19691 9951.84 1.9786 1.9668 10011.75 1.0060
19429.49

MAD MAPE TS RSFE

C I

1.1458 0.9668
1.1650 0.9963
1.1685 1.0333
1.1538 1.0264
1.1307 0.9919
1.1102 0.9927
1.1091 1.0052
1.1235 0.9812
1.1652 0.9587
1.1306 1.0258
1.0905 1.1754
1.0616 0.9078
1.0160 0.9417
1.0455 0.9989
1.0679 1.0294
1.0707 1.0101
1.0515 0.9951
1.0452 1.0100
1.0495 0.9741
1.0599 0.9967
1.1051 0.9624
1.0805 1.0156
1.0533 1.1424
1.0511 0.9113
1.0257 0.9307
1.0531 1.0339
1.0858 1.0146
1.0791 0.9890
1.0668 1.0177
1.0702 0.9920
1.0691 0.9847
1.0776 1.0029
1.1111 0.9730
1.0794 1.0152
1.0354 1.1461
1.0194 0.9359
0.9884 0.9155
1.0064 1.0256
1.0388 1.0228
1.0317 0.9946
1.0139 1.0202
1.0110 0.9927
0.9956 0.9959
0.9956 1.0190
1.0111 0.9620
0.9770 1.0273
0.9592 1.0983
0.9496 0.9248
0.9300 0.9693
0.9570 1.0084
0.9745 1.0010
0.9696 1.0169
0.9653 1.0063
0.9569 0.9882
0.9533 1.0050
0.9529 0.9996
0.9533 1.0039
0.9366 1.0078
0.9078 1.0573
0.9055 0.9780
0.8952 0.9404
0.9072 1.0304
0.9252 0.9928
0.9223 1.0123
0.9189 0.9946
0.9102 1.0141
0.9115 0.9929
0.9031 0.9953
0.8987 1.0226
0.8945 0.9943
0.8755 1.0138
0.8845 0.9972
0.9050 0.9313
0.9215 1.0044
0.9484 1.0223
0.9515 0.9964
0.9392 1.0120
0.9391 0.9988
0.9378 0.9816
0.9351 1.0131
0.9343 1.0118
0.9266 1.0009
0.9088 1.0091
0.9211 0.9952
0.9333 0.9366
0.9458 1.0324
0.9729 0.9929
0.9712 0.9953
0.9669 1.0163
0.9709 0.9986
0.9663 0.9818
0.9596 1.0242
0.9740 0.9900
0.9532 0.9889
0.9407 1.0699
0.9565 0.9404
0.9492 0.9632
0.9681 1.0389
0.9929 0.9844
0.9905 0.9842
0.9909 1.0231
1.0001 0.9957
0.9925 0.9868
0.9850 1.0267
0.9855 0.9979
0.9697 0.9960
0.9535 1.0294
0.9635 0.9840
0.9762 0.9409
0.9900 1.0160
1.0175 1.0146
1.0177 0.9861
1.0125 1.0155
1.0192 0.9877
1.0139 0.9977
1.0152 1.0149
1.0200 0.9874
1.0057 1.0062
0.9950 1.0356
1.0119 0.9619
1.0138 0.9511
1.0315 1.0466
1.0564 0.9827
1.0429 1.0013
1.0414 1.0215
1.0347 0.9908
1.0196 1.0126
1.0203 0.9972
1.0150 0.9884
1.0059 1.0222
1.0004 1.0105
1.0099 0.9716
1.0141 0.9678
1.0269 1.0379
1.0417 0.9867
1.0314 1.0010
1.0386 1.0019
1.0363 0.9889
1.0290 1.0269
1.0306 0.9929
1.0184 0.9928
30000
1.0168 1.0145
1.0198 0.9882
25000
1.0271 0.9902
1.0391 0.9844 20000
1.0474 1.0128 f(x) = 119.968744628126 x + 474.231637507054
1.0530 1.0024 R² = 0.891835118640708
15000
1.0479 1.0024
1.0428 1.0024 10000
1.0377 1.0024
1.0327 1.0024 5000
1.0278 1.0024
1.0229 1.0024 0
1.0180 1.0024 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1.0132 1.0023
1.0108 1.0000
1.0084 0.9976
100 120 140 160 180