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- Descomposición de Varianza
Al analizar la descomposición de varianza del modelo que incorpora al spread 1, lo relevante para el
presente trabajo se centra en como los shocks estructurales (de oferta, demanda, política
monetaria y temor inflacionario) afectan al PBI.
Bajo este análisis podemos encontrar un shock de oferta es el que tiene mayor importancia al
momento de explicar la dinámica del crecimiento del producto en el corto plazo aunque va
disminuyendo en el tiempo, en cambio los shocks de política muestran una participación casi
constante a lo largo del tiempo (cerca del 30%). Con lo que respecta a los shocks de temor
inflacionario, que se observan a través del spread, podemos notar que en el corto plazo posee
poca participación en la explicación de la dinámica del crecimiento producto, pero a partir del
sétimo periodo empieza a mostrar una participación significativa, llegando a explicar hasta el
alrededor del 45% de la volatilidad del crecimiento producto. Este comportamiento lo podemos
observar en el gráfico siguiente:
1
El modelo óptimo para este modelo es un VAR con 18 rezagos basado en los criterios de información
Akaike y Schwarz.
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Estandar
Periodo
PBI_FINAL PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION DSPREAD
1 1.020146 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 1.054914 93.72347 1.190983 1.673272 3.412274
3 1.682447 53.23962 23.49869 13.35708 9.904609
4 1.695073 53.12526 23.19771 13.26167 10.41536
5 1.844735 44.86715 19.60325 23.34757 12.18203
6 2.168666 36.20592 15.17118 39.65753 8.965373
7 2.591459 25.38716 14.24686 32.65360 27.71238
8 2.763562 22.54056 16.41358 33.91052 27.13534
9 3.135031 18.03489 13.45627 30.67526 37.83359
10 3.300568 16.50497 12.14835 34.03255 37.31413
11 3.323438 16.33733 11.99514 33.92372 37.74381
12 3.655853 13.56568 10.00503 39.25924 37.17004
13 3.825858 15.40469 10.40623 36.49214 37.69694
14 3.895807 14.88477 10.29036 35.69067 39.13420
15 4.204585 13.21088 13.22301 31.45322 42.11288
16 4.353822 12.68733 12.34392 34.82989 40.13886
17 4.655953 12.18140 11.17946 30.71655 45.92259
18 5.328457 12.97786 8.815566 36.59421 41.61237
19 5.446395 12.51234 10.65395 36.41206 40.42165
20 5.641563 12.70347 10.30529 39.22920 37.76203
21 6.312983 13.00987 9.986072 31.78476 45.21930
22 6.429310 13.23274 9.653428 33.35216 43.76167
23 6.507725 14.82330 9.426107 32.99942 42.75118
24 6.635712 14.71814 9.087432 33.71339 42.48104
25 6.663859 14.79229 9.088730 33.94335 42.17562
26 6.699054 14.63940 9.057203 34.02221 42.28119
27 6.759485 14.92866 9.242347 33.93853 41.89047
28 6.841411 14.60447 9.066554 33.85954 42.46943
29 7.017794 14.17959 8.808748 32.36523 44.64643
30 7.592210 12.49396 7.845720 33.50302 46.15730
31 7.612065 12.43590 8.060665 33.35319 46.15025
32 7.684083 13.00381 7.912804 33.70329 45.38010
33 7.803859 14.90928 7.765306 32.69846 44.62695
34 7.957768 15.68955 7.473545 32.42068 44.41622
35 8.198232 17.34495 7.066063 32.85316 42.73583
36 8.460845 17.61582 6.692684 35.12829 40.56321
Con respecto al modelo que incluye la descomposición del spread 2, en sus componentes de
expectativas y prima por riesgo, se puede observar que al igual que el modelo anterior, el shock de
oferta explica la mayor parte de la volatilidad del crecimiento del PBI en el corto plazo, con lo que
respecta al shock de política se puede observar una participación relativamente constante de
alrededor de un 20%, lo que resalta más, es la importancia que recibe las expectativas al momento
de explicar la volatilidad de la actividad economía a largo plazo, teniendo una participación de
cerca al 25% a partir del quinceavo período. Con lo que respecta al shock por parte de la prima por
riesgo que esta posee una participación mayor en el largo plazo pero solo de un 9%.
2
El modelo óptimo para este modelo es un VAR con 15 rezagos basado en los criterios de información
Akaike y Schwarz.
2
Desviación
Porcentaje de Participacion sobre la Desviación Estandar
Periodo Estandar
PBI_FINAL PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION EXPECTATIVAS PRIMAS
1 1.034271 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 1.188821 75.82380 21.11840 0.006993 0.261114 2.789690
3 1.374298 68.69393 28.39205 0.005969 0.197549 2.710498
4 1.480739 64.30569 24.67793 4.960885 0.576493 5.478998
5 1.555534 63.86877 22.44253 7.423790 0.528601 5.736303
6 1.683114 62.62993 19.16921 11.96448 1.031204 5.205176
7 1.925466 62.31733 17.28511 9.865555 4.888374 5.643628
8 2.143606 63.91320 16.67418 9.212542 5.636840 4.563240
9 2.269541 65.32594 15.47292 9.922333 5.104194 4.174613
10 2.532024 66.17597 13.66298 8.835346 6.627700 4.698001
11 2.633422 64.66687 12.65496 10.88336 7.356913 4.437898
12 2.770907 60.53205 11.46040 14.75877 7.208815 6.039956
13 3.182326 46.00674 22.10644 12.67298 14.50577 4.708068
14 3.301747 42.81694 23.20227 12.03467 17.54513 4.400990
15 3.573411 36.72534 23.36033 10.29150 25.80787 3.814963
3
16 4.040664 28.75159 24.09207 15.68349 24.87040 6.602453
17 4.262882 27.73397 22.00538 15.03901 25.82064 9.401004
18 4.736735 22.49534 21.83898 16.85807 28.64738 10.16022
19 5.037048 29.61441 19.45808 15.07967 25.33921 10.50862
20 5.194214 27.89518 19.91865 14.18311 27.78731 10.21574
21 5.342334 30.98875 18.96610 13.80238 26.46532 9.777452
22 5.458159 29.70399 19.71025 14.77420 26.23833 9.573239
23 5.596145 28.37390 18.87801 16.12951 25.45229 11.16628
24 5.857707 29.06310 20.52236 15.22906 23.97534 11.21014
25 5.988309 29.25049 20.00624 15.19831 23.58497 11.96000
26 6.579658 30.97726 18.84234 12.64954 27.07480 10.45605
27 6.672424 30.13235 19.29823 12.36487 28.03217 10.17239
28 6.960189 29.31166 18.24569 11.44138 31.50729 9.493983
29 7.181195 27.89703 19.68616 10.86162 32.52564 9.029546
30 7.340287 26.90884 18.84572 10.56145 35.00612 8.677865
31 7.492642 26.01752 19.47473 10.28149 35.69075 8.535511
32 7.629141 25.14283 19.29975 11.62930 35.27897 8.649156
33 8.016475 24.26574 19.09553 10.54594 37.47695 8.615841
34 8.031267 24.25512 19.02742 10.60150 37.42791 8.688048
35 8.166954 23.85380 18.41102 10.27746 38.76584 8.691883
36 8.281354 23.68052 18.19710 11.38696 38.04605 8.689376
ANEXO???
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
PBI_FINAL PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION DSPREAD
1 1.020146 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 1.054914 93.72347 1.190983 1.673272 3.412274
3 1.682447 53.23962 23.49869 13.35708 9.904609
4 1.695073 53.12526 23.19771 13.26167 10.41536
5 1.844735 44.86715 19.60325 23.34757 12.18203
6 2.168666 36.20592 15.17118 39.65753 8.965373
7 2.591459 25.38716 14.24686 32.65360 27.71238
8 2.763562 22.54056 16.41358 33.91052 27.13534
9 3.135031 18.03489 13.45627 30.67526 37.83359
10 3.300568 16.50497 12.14835 34.03255 37.31413
11 3.323438 16.33733 11.99514 33.92372 37.74381
12 3.655853 13.56568 10.00503 39.25924 37.17004
13 3.825858 15.40469 10.40623 36.49214 37.69694
14 3.895807 14.88477 10.29036 35.69067 39.13420
15 4.204585 13.21088 13.22301 31.45322 42.11288
16 4.353822 12.68733 12.34392 34.82989 40.13886
17 4.655953 12.18140 11.17946 30.71655 45.92259
18 5.328457 12.97786 8.815566 36.59421 41.61237
19 5.446395 12.51234 10.65395 36.41206 40.42165
20 5.641563 12.70347 10.30529 39.22920 37.76203
21 6.312983 13.00987 9.986072 31.78476 45.21930
22 6.429310 13.23274 9.653428 33.35216 43.76167
23 6.507725 14.82330 9.426107 32.99942 42.75118
24 6.635712 14.71814 9.087432 33.71339 42.48104
4
25 6.663859 14.79229 9.088730 33.94335 42.17562
26 6.699054 14.63940 9.057203 34.02221 42.28119
27 6.759485 14.92866 9.242347 33.93853 41.89047
28 6.841411 14.60447 9.066554 33.85954 42.46943
29 7.017794 14.17959 8.808748 32.36523 44.64643
30 7.592210 12.49396 7.845720 33.50302 46.15730
31 7.612065 12.43590 8.060665 33.35319 46.15025
32 7.684083 13.00381 7.912804 33.70329 45.38010
33 7.803859 14.90928 7.765306 32.69846 44.62695
34 7.957768 15.68955 7.473545 32.42068 44.41622
35 8.198232 17.34495 7.066063 32.85316 42.73583
36 8.460845 17.61582 6.692684 35.12829 40.56321
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
DINTERBC PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION DSPREAD
1 0.131880 38.02788 61.97212 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.214005 28.84968 24.52544 8.718623 37.90626
3 0.266731 23.23652 20.95858 30.44615 25.35875
4 0.308320 18.87793 22.11276 37.81401 21.19529
5 0.347243 18.62549 17.58292 46.84538 16.94621
6 0.397356 20.10022 13.87585 49.58582 16.43811
7 0.411426 19.50074 13.36147 51.07173 16.06606
8 0.428252 18.11302 13.55016 52.51630 15.82053
9 0.435467 17.66672 13.14655 52.42454 16.76219
10 0.473521 14.95740 11.48931 54.55843 18.99487
11 0.478209 14.88924 11.47625 54.43367 19.20084
12 0.495864 13.87728 10.69118 52.40149 23.03004
13 0.509768 13.20071 11.22737 50.02671 25.54521
14 0.517575 12.86272 10.95346 49.22385 26.95997
15 0.534231 12.66213 10.88630 46.27035 30.18123
16 0.557870 11.83383 9.998351 46.60157 31.56626
17 0.590310 10.57686 9.761913 48.00394 31.65729
18 0.634402 11.42945 8.466537 50.28011 29.82390
19 0.673238 10.50367 8.013548 46.67695 34.80582
20 0.698322 11.61279 8.371832 46.83646 33.17892
21 0.711491 11.37371 8.437182 45.27722 34.91189
22 0.732793 10.75754 8.406433 42.73762 38.09840
23 0.746221 11.70734 8.172736 43.20329 36.91663
24 0.754763 11.89571 8.686525 42.36490 37.05287
25 0.766257 12.18513 8.493601 41.21820 38.10307
26 0.787420 11.72866 9.398167 39.03301 39.84016
27 0.796002 11.82008 9.257855 39.28469 39.63738
28 0.801718 11.89967 9.159504 39.86341 39.07741
29 0.806688 11.76417 9.468578 39.48168 39.28557
30 0.807150 11.79989 9.457883 39.47094 39.27129
31 0.816047 12.97996 9.606372 38.78556 38.62811
32 0.821538 12.82260 9.582590 38.31852 39.27629
33 0.848005 12.39426 10.54406 36.38260 40.67908
34 0.876704 11.60959 9.895916 37.48017 41.01433
35 0.888030 11.38217 9.645264 36.71888 42.25369
36 0.924812 11.18002 10.81131 38.85593 39.15273
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
DINFLACION PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION DSPREAD
1 0.314250 0.028371 13.38715 86.58448 0.000000
2 0.383281 1.778989 9.148208 61.04013 28.03267
3 0.388254 2.289445 8.915438 61.42056 27.37456
4 0.423370 2.034661 8.636894 66.18773 23.14072
5 0.449244 1.889303 8.161822 65.73081 24.21806
5
6 0.455541 3.656111 8.057225 64.43667 23.85000
7 0.484211 4.286326 7.507619 65.63131 22.57474
8 0.563795 5.000128 8.406351 63.00705 23.58647
9 0.580977 5.064685 8.422903 62.50373 24.00868
10 0.596408 5.047604 7.999180 61.27012 25.68309
11 0.619925 7.377300 7.406716 61.31853 23.89746
12 0.636928 7.185810 7.065380 62.41944 23.32936
13 0.656145 6.912040 10.76377 60.32512 21.99907
14 0.677161 8.552212 10.10654 56.69848 24.64277
15 0.714973 7.873904 9.070544 59.13231 23.92324
16 0.738818 8.367568 9.108597 59.17500 23.34883
17 0.787707 9.150050 8.029546 57.60714 25.21326
18 0.808131 10.70970 8.203939 57.00233 24.08404
19 0.863982 10.71057 7.526202 56.29263 25.47060
20 0.955281 8.808519 9.748355 51.35515 30.08797
21 0.959362 8.733807 9.777134 51.50405 29.98501
22 0.990880 11.75391 9.240957 48.27967 30.72547
23 1.028009 13.27753 8.591014 49.14579 28.98566
24 1.033891 13.16462 8.961087 49.21610 28.65819
25 1.042809 12.94479 8.835330 49.13873 29.08115
26 1.083212 14.01046 8.276957 45.74553 31.96704
27 1.090081 14.05396 8.203021 46.09944 31.64358
28 1.102038 13.76147 8.307530 45.13837 32.79262
29 1.160779 14.05996 7.683568 43.77114 34.48533
30 1.167137 14.29113 8.075690 43.35826 34.27492
31 1.177645 14.09103 8.226060 43.80928 33.87363
32 1.241378 13.63411 8.671982 40.69170 37.00221
33 1.244754 13.82359 8.652855 40.63893 36.88462
34 1.267960 16.02714 9.201991 39.22103 35.54983
35 1.273319 15.89711 9.136852 39.02555 35.94049
36 1.290778 15.51616 10.33775 38.73843 35.40766
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
DSPREAD PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION DSPREAD
1 0.605483 0.601718 0.810003 12.93412 85.65416
2 0.629799 5.186443 0.779559 14.46717 79.56683
3 0.675660 4.782417 3.518767 12.57545 79.12337
4 0.721385 5.409506 3.334411 15.03223 76.22385
5 0.767579 6.036202 6.536346 18.88417 68.54328
6 0.817053 7.004466 8.835211 18.45668 65.70364
7 0.844368 7.666937 8.309408 20.78346 63.24020
8 0.890717 6.988160 7.478981 28.68100 56.85186
9 0.915933 10.16945 7.081407 28.83128 53.91786
10 0.921078 10.42052 7.164312 28.79258 53.62259
11 0.993786 10.29752 6.358874 36.89469 46.44891
12 1.166115 7.584917 6.958599 34.57146 50.88503
13 1.173354 7.565752 7.421115 34.72412 50.28902
14 1.175478 7.628640 7.394681 34.69948 50.27720
15 1.194668 10.38900 7.209729 33.71449 48.68678
16 1.210401 10.33663 7.238343 34.72952 47.69551
17 1.294578 11.21113 6.614983 35.94425 46.22964
18 1.330874 11.34551 6.531224 35.26708 46.85618
19 1.391211 10.71632 6.081782 36.91506 46.28684
20 1.408645 10.53649 6.092369 36.35205 47.01910
21 1.414036 10.70357 6.307585 36.32326 46.66559
22 1.423590 11.14347 6.638965 35.89721 46.32036
23 1.448335 11.24266 6.422145 36.21969 46.11550
24 1.463455 12.45660 6.317180 36.01336 45.21286
25 1.466752 12.64818 6.371335 35.96073 45.01975
6
26 1.472118 12.84723 6.342962 35.70274 45.10707
27 1.478808 12.78119 6.415266 35.96195 44.84159
28 1.491397 12.65025 6.584328 35.93484 44.83058
29 1.553954 11.72784 6.656433 33.89442 47.72130
30 1.593388 11.18219 6.408586 34.20603 48.20320
31 1.622124 10.83588 6.232881 33.76581 49.16543
32 1.634874 10.72860 6.394787 34.41519 48.46142
33 1.646254 11.27436 6.310053 33.97527 48.44032
34 1.663984 12.01479 6.630004 33.35834 47.99686
35 1.689399 13.33277 6.773162 33.31558 46.57849
36 1.731887 16.11399 6.549684 32.85485 44.48147
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
PBI_FINAL PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION EXPECTATIVAS PRIMA
1 1.034271 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 1.188821 75.82380 21.11840 0.006993 0.261114 2.789690
3 1.374298 68.69393 28.39205 0.005969 0.197549 2.710498
4 1.480739 64.30569 24.67793 4.960885 0.576493 5.478998
5 1.555534 63.86877 22.44253 7.423790 0.528601 5.736303
6 1.683114 62.62993 19.16921 11.96448 1.031204 5.205176
7 1.925466 62.31733 17.28511 9.865555 4.888374 5.643628
8 2.143606 63.91320 16.67418 9.212542 5.636840 4.563240
9 2.269541 65.32594 15.47292 9.922333 5.104194 4.174613
10 2.532024 66.17597 13.66298 8.835346 6.627700 4.698001
11 2.633422 64.66687 12.65496 10.88336 7.356913 4.437898
12 2.770907 60.53205 11.46040 14.75877 7.208815 6.039956
13 3.182326 46.00674 22.10644 12.67298 14.50577 4.708068
14 3.301747 42.81694 23.20227 12.03467 17.54513 4.400990
15 3.573411 36.72534 23.36033 10.29150 25.80787 3.814963
16 4.040664 28.75159 24.09207 15.68349 24.87040 6.602453
17 4.262882 27.73397 22.00538 15.03901 25.82064 9.401004
18 4.736735 22.49534 21.83898 16.85807 28.64738 10.16022
19 5.037048 29.61441 19.45808 15.07967 25.33921 10.50862
20 5.194214 27.89518 19.91865 14.18311 27.78731 10.21574
21 5.342334 30.98875 18.96610 13.80238 26.46532 9.777452
22 5.458159 29.70399 19.71025 14.77420 26.23833 9.573239
23 5.596145 28.37390 18.87801 16.12951 25.45229 11.16628
24 5.857707 29.06310 20.52236 15.22906 23.97534 11.21014
25 5.988309 29.25049 20.00624 15.19831 23.58497 11.96000
26 6.579658 30.97726 18.84234 12.64954 27.07480 10.45605
27 6.672424 30.13235 19.29823 12.36487 28.03217 10.17239
28 6.960189 29.31166 18.24569 11.44138 31.50729 9.493983
29 7.181195 27.89703 19.68616 10.86162 32.52564 9.029546
30 7.340287 26.90884 18.84572 10.56145 35.00612 8.677865
31 7.492642 26.01752 19.47473 10.28149 35.69075 8.535511
32 7.629141 25.14283 19.29975 11.62930 35.27897 8.649156
33 8.016475 24.26574 19.09553 10.54594 37.47695 8.615841
34 8.031267 24.25512 19.02742 10.60150 37.42791 8.688048
35 8.166954 23.85380 18.41102 10.27746 38.76584 8.691883
36 8.281354 23.68052 18.19710 11.38696 38.04605 8.689376
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
DINTERBC PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION EXPECTATIVAS PRIMA
1 0.158455 0.692406 99.30759 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.176716 5.427467 87.97142 3.847253 2.093625 0.660238
7
3 0.231466 39.77965 51.27696 7.214123 1.261445 0.467827
4 0.271317 48.34167 42.24249 8.154536 0.920820 0.340492
5 0.311708 55.06137 32.16330 9.930671 2.446675 0.397986
6 0.336458 54.32578 30.18393 9.678061 4.588086 1.224149
7 0.362821 53.80066 30.80994 8.330566 3.945575 3.113259
8 0.377982 55.46428 28.46550 8.063627 3.685522 4.321074
9 0.382732 55.12399 27.78371 8.329913 4.429512 4.332881
10 0.397404 53.37505 26.06097 11.65337 4.378614 4.532001
11 0.407425 51.06994 28.16800 11.15080 5.261538 4.349723
12 0.413707 50.76538 27.46852 11.65956 5.444136 4.662408
13 0.421053 49.41388 28.00435 11.55022 5.888096 5.143458
14 0.459066 41.58550 29.96427 12.25705 8.285666 7.907510
15 0.472284 40.78010 28.31386 12.49255 8.582300 9.831204
16 0.516549 35.14054 28.24904 11.60213 14.02463 10.98366
17 0.541566 39.90297 25.70616 11.18382 12.78200 10.42506
18 0.546804 39.17332 25.81552 11.01686 13.76271 10.23159
19 0.572073 42.75937 23.69944 10.85926 13.24489 9.437038
20 0.592332 40.20240 26.19653 11.89000 12.35461 9.356468
21 0.599399 39.27884 26.00930 11.61662 13.53565 9.559592
22 0.623009 37.16673 25.60036 11.88224 15.90855 9.442130
23 0.634103 38.90643 24.96048 11.47040 15.42207 9.240621
24 0.645545 37.61992 24.19761 11.48529 17.73997 8.957214
25 0.658552 36.14995 25.50233 12.32477 17.39522 8.627725
26 0.668003 35.14655 24.79273 12.92471 18.38514 8.750869
27 0.683997 36.22595 23.96665 12.55522 18.63472 8.617465
28 0.690247 36.26577 23.55152 13.05312 18.35607 8.773515
29 0.728232 34.94775 22.13295 13.38994 20.47970 9.049659
30 0.731080 34.68858 22.05838 13.37880 20.55428 9.319954
31 0.749220 33.22675 22.16147 12.77372 22.83758 9.000477
32 0.760997 33.80747 21.88884 13.13548 22.44281 8.725404
33 0.775639 32.64809 21.18957 14.82518 22.11347 9.223697
34 0.812051 30.27345 21.35272 18.63493 20.21585 9.523042
35 0.840587 29.91900 20.97231 18.65752 20.04860 10.40256
36 0.861443 29.03648 20.78376 18.98130 19.87706 11.32141
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
DINFLACION PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION EXPECTATIVAS PRIMA
1 0.281711 9.758175 16.84948 73.39235 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.306479 21.59013 14.88092 62.60354 0.882030 0.043383
3 0.344285 32.38328 15.70340 49.63739 1.772265 0.503667
4 0.389162 40.13754 15.01381 39.29167 5.121557 0.435419
5 0.400448 42.36798 14.53641 37.49443 4.838637 0.762532
6 0.411005 40.71519 13.88567 37.16205 6.978243 1.258849
7 0.425615 38.00706 19.02788 35.03848 6.507813 1.418760
8 0.443039 35.98506 18.30930 37.52890 6.670570 1.506170
9 0.525060 39.65145 20.92006 26.88215 10.11751 2.428838
10 0.538211 39.68020 20.45776 25.92617 9.709784 4.226088
11 0.561839 40.90587 19.95650 24.02876 10.64025 4.468625
12 0.597902 38.02355 18.44411 28.95216 9.912208 4.667972
13 0.623701 40.23279 17.17437 26.60736 9.247323 6.738164
14 0.663501 36.17054 23.16282 24.94086 9.300184 6.425599
15 0.748484 45.69833 18.54653 19.64841 7.758187 8.348551
16 0.755235 44.88590 19.42349 19.30005 8.183231 8.207330
17 0.785754 42.55512 22.80346 17.99911 9.046758 7.595558
18 0.814386 43.57288 22.02479 16.75893 10.56038 7.083020
19 0.833095 41.71612 21.10977 18.73753 11.46615 6.970442
20 0.881242 42.42040 22.04959 16.74602 11.35475 7.429234
21 0.893955 41.83603 23.05847 16.27333 11.52873 7.303446
22 0.949625 43.60758 20.72682 14.65840 14.35184 6.655358
8
23 0.969897 42.99460 20.08991 16.08128 14.05939 6.774816
24 1.005446 44.05069 19.75060 15.51130 14.35555 6.331858
25 1.021097 45.01184 19.59487 15.26167 13.94792 6.183688
26 1.042842 44.17724 18.94749 17.19860 13.39581 6.280867
27 1.060764 42.74530 20.12654 16.72964 13.81701 6.581509
28 1.082126 41.78919 19.34058 18.33760 13.40059 7.132038
29 1.134032 41.70334 18.13521 17.74755 15.13028 7.283617
30 1.151410 40.47262 18.19800 17.99827 16.24703 7.084078
31 1.159552 39.92929 18.57152 17.95508 16.02783 7.516273
32 1.213919 39.43639 17.02290 19.95713 16.66356 6.920013
33 1.277546 37.42725 16.73949 22.09283 15.55928 8.181156
34 1.300922 36.25558 18.59276 21.55676 15.11978 8.475123
35 1.319506 35.63570 18.08004 21.82507 15.29857 9.160617
36 1.426864 39.02601 15.81818 18.76573 16.61280 9.777275
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
EXPECTATIVAS PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION EXPECTATIVAS PRIMA
1 0.305137 11.42675 19.89002 10.64873 58.03450 0.000000
2 0.425343 31.34853 10.62550 6.331331 48.45104 3.243597
3 0.461017 28.68835 21.77878 5.390992 41.28833 2.853542
4 0.474979 31.64543 21.47029 5.083658 39.10390 2.696718
5 0.499067 29.35877 19.64139 11.36184 37.02564 2.612360
6 0.570981 24.07898 33.85801 9.839739 28.71805 3.505226
7 0.612938 21.76478 29.43482 14.03148 31.14282 3.626096
8 0.686263 31.58988 23.96843 14.50359 25.83535 4.102738
9 0.717029 32.49570 24.65761 14.08541 24.97613 3.785154
10 0.737400 32.04229 27.08718 13.48429 23.75145 3.634792
11 0.753061 30.75703 27.02678 15.80715 22.77747 3.631565
12 0.789050 32.27417 24.71040 14.39891 21.97767 6.638852
13 0.867798 29.96588 28.41896 17.16119 18.44961 6.004363
14 0.969136 40.07418 22.80189 13.85716 15.03478 8.231981
15 0.981872 39.04586 22.90277 14.43996 15.57341 8.038005
16 1.014149 37.55163 24.29557 15.29838 14.93391 7.920509
17 1.054852 35.54397 27.40643 14.19162 14.22296 8.635028
18 1.068646 34.70062 26.79671 14.57307 14.44567 9.483938
19 1.111529 34.80098 27.42125 13.48650 15.51431 8.776960
20 1.155679 32.30107 31.36735 12.90755 14.78835 8.635685
21 1.166650 31.71863 31.31212 12.94219 15.37236 8.654700
22 1.197045 32.42981 29.81365 14.47738 14.73388 8.545273
23 1.225941 35.08345 28.44714 14.20946 14.04754 8.212408
24 1.233766 34.65203 28.62720 14.12456 13.94695 8.649257
25 1.290037 34.81879 26.44711 14.21173 15.41716 9.105207
26 1.353411 34.26959 26.09890 14.21962 17.06637 8.345527
27 1.365631 33.97439 25.64140 14.38474 17.46019 8.539274
28 1.376952 33.43616 25.24800 14.63446 17.24240 9.438994
29 1.415780 31.64358 25.75819 17.24370 16.42398 8.930547
30 1.485133 33.92682 24.16192 15.71056 15.27102 10.92969
31 1.525626 34.24335 23.15889 17.14138 14.71174 10.74465
32 1.605946 34.06920 21.74194 17.85103 15.16805 11.16978
33 1.613325 34.20086 21.69138 17.85601 15.04291 11.20883
34 1.649693 33.26548 20.76124 17.53875 17.53515 10.89938
35 1.708685 34.04794 21.37269 17.91714 16.44957 10.21267
36 1.753950 32.48708 20.35949 20.11345 16.61978 10.42020
Deviacion
Porcentaje de Participación sobre la Desviación Estándar
Periodo Estandar
EXPECTATIVAS PBI_FINAL DINTERBC DINFLACION EXPECTATIVAS PRIMA
1 0.339228 31.79646 6.991924 2.282018 29.25033 29.67926
2 0.371259 27.28018 18.23198 4.644437 24.42564 25.41777
3 0.379444 28.59416 17.70067 4.470325 24.89966 24.33518
9
4 0.403206 26.81248 23.90097 4.561429 22.31252 22.41260
5 0.424326 26.98769 26.17629 4.187721 20.54995 22.09835
6 0.435303 27.00923 24.87290 3.980203 23.12948 21.00818
7 0.463031 23.89942 31.43251 5.327665 20.45165 18.88875
8 0.476199 23.26890 33.59003 5.618088 19.60683 17.91616
9 0.509681 20.52406 33.35392 5.100175 24.96956 16.05229
10 0.569373 16.54092 46.16598 4.087333 20.29162 12.91415
11 0.586215 15.89336 43.66556 8.779242 19.34288 12.31896
12 0.633320 21.84375 40.20113 7.804719 18.35193 11.79846
13 0.651305 20.95738 38.48143 8.976221 17.55492 14.03005
14 0.725001 27.45400 32.88230 7.245170 15.37980 17.03874
15 0.768762 24.96012 37.98597 6.808087 14.93045 15.31537
16 0.787276 26.92246 36.26716 6.660142 14.66052 15.48972
17 0.823733 24.68868 38.98735 7.236978 13.39171 15.69529
18 0.845510 24.98498 39.46979 6.914488 12.71077 15.91997
19 0.859279 25.82014 38.40890 7.207037 13.12086 15.44305
20 0.870828 25.63060 37.83981 7.726044 13.71455 15.08900
21 0.883348 24.99488 37.22064 8.553857 13.85494 15.37568
22 0.902181 24.27935 36.97096 9.276492 14.67436 14.79884
23 0.903945 24.43442 36.87112 9.243815 14.63042 14.82023
24 0.926598 23.69779 36.56042 8.802430 15.31047 15.62889
25 0.943774 25.30400 35.59708 9.094318 14.75874 15.24586
26 0.948049 25.29499 35.63304 9.049914 14.91316 15.10890
27 0.996786 23.44342 35.62395 8.190818 17.83583 14.90598
28 1.019038 22.73537 36.80868 7.993580 17.08714 15.37524
29 1.041802 21.76535 36.57028 8.576299 16.97030 16.11777
30 1.064176 21.25167 36.77309 9.501003 16.30120 16.17304
31 1.095592 21.80221 34.73748 9.218084 18.96884 15.27339
32 1.117618 21.95732 34.03046 10.19145 18.47762 15.34315
33 1.135847 21.67728 33.65122 11.61671 18.18463 14.87015
34 1.158210 20.97254 33.27426 13.22801 17.79091 14.73428
35 1.209230 22.75988 31.03822 12.13621 20.29592 13.76978
36 1.214423 22.58124 31.09139 12.29690 20.30123 13.72924
10