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Assignment NO. 2
Business Mathematics and Statistical (MBA-5528)
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This assignment is a research-oriented activity,
which represents both the theoretical and practical
implication of the topic. In the first section of this
assignment, I explain the theoretical aspect of the
topic and all major parts has been explained which
are involved in the method of for “Estimation and
Hypothesis testing “For empirical study, I select
Engro food company.
Title page 01
Acknowledgement 03
Abstract 04
Table of contents 05
Case study 9
Statistics:
1) Collection of data
2) Presentation of data
3) Analysis of data
4) Interpretation of data
Confidence Intervals
1. A confidence level.
2. A statistic.
3. A margin of error.
For example, we might say that we are 95% confident that the true
population mean falls within a specified range. This statement is a
confidence interval. It means that if we used the same sampling method to
select different samples and compute different interval estimates, the true
population mean would fall within a range defined by the sample statistic +
margin of error 95% of the time.
Confidence Level
Margin of Error
Testing of Hypothesis
there is no contraction between the believed result and the sample result and
that the difference therefore can be ascribed solely to chance. Such a
hypothesis is called a null hypothesis ( Ho). It is the null hypothesis that is
actually tested, not the research hypothesis. The object of the test is to see
whether the null hypothesis should be rejected or accepted.
Once the null hypothesis is set up, the next job is to set the limits within
which we expect (the null hypothesis) m lies. The idea behind it is to ensure
that the difference between the sample value and the hypothesis should arise
due to sampling fluctuations alone. If this difference does not exceeds this
limit then the sample supports the null hypothesis and the sample is
accepted. If it exceeds this limit the sample does not support the hypothesis
and it is rejected.
Now fixing the limits totally depends upon the accuracy desired. Generally
the limits are fixed such that the probability that the difference will exceeds
the limits is 0.05 or 0.01. These levels are known as the 'levels of
significance' and are expressed as 5% or 1% levels of significance. Rejection
of null hypothesis does not mean that the hypothesis is disproved.
It simply means that the sample values does not support the hypothesis.
Also, acceptance does not mean that the hypothesis is proved. It means
simply it is being supported.
Confidence limits
The limits (or range) within which the hypothesis should lie with specified
probabilities are called the confidence limits or fiducial limits. It is
customary to take these limits as 5% or 1% levels of significance. If sample
values lies between the confidence limits, the hypothesis is accepted; if it
does not, the hypothesis is rejected at the specified level of significance.
Type I error:
Is committed when the null hypothesis is rejected though it is true. In
terms of probability, Type I error is denoted by α (alpha) where
A Type II error:
Type of testing
Suppose µ = 1 0
true hypothesis
H0: µ = 10
Η1 : µ is not equal to 10
H0:. µ ≥10
H1:. µ <10
H0:. µ ≤10
H1:. µ >10
Z-test T-test
Σ is known Σ is un- know then
n<30
Sample size >30
EngroFood s’ History
Engro Foods (Pvt.) Limited (EFL) has been
established in 2005 as part of a diversification
process at the Engro Group. The plant located at
Sukkur on 23 acre land, has the raw milk reception
capability of 300,000 liters per day and UHT milk
capacity of 200,000liters per day. The plant has been
established at a cost of Rs. 1 billion which provides
direct employment to 750 people. Engro Foods has
entered the Food business through milk processing
and sale with the company’s vision to pursue growth
opportunities based on country fundamentals and
own strength. It also positions the company to
leverage its corporate social responsibility initiatives
and work closely with rural communities to promote
integrated farming and livestock development. This
effort is expected to play a pivotal role in poverty
alleviation and improving livelihoods of the poor in
the milk collection areas.
Vision
Engro Food
Brands:
Olper’s milk
Olper’s cream
Olwell
Skim milk
Tarang
Tea milk
Olper’s
Olper’s –A well known brand of Engro Foods (Pvt.) Ltd.
Research Questions
Q1. What is the extent to which Olper’s advertisement?
campaign has created a positioning for the product that was
desired by management?
Research Objective
To identify the acceptability and perception of Packaged milk
brands
Research Design
Questionnaire
Observational Study
TV Channels watched GEO news, GEO entertainment, ARY
Digital and PTV Network
Time watched: 4 pm to 12 pm during Weekend
Sampling criteria
Household
Sampling Design
Stratified Sampling
Demographics of Sample
Housewives 22
35 years old
Market share
Quality
Quality Perception
Quality perception of the brand
TV viewing habits
30 minutes on average
Duration %
0-10 minutes 10
11-30 minutes 34
31-60 minutes 42
1-3 hours 12
More then 3 hours 2
Programs and AD
TV Programs watched by Target Market
Hypothesis 01
Conclusion
Hypothesis 02
Ho: Olper’s media planning has been ineffective
Po≤50%•
Ha: Olper’s media planning has been effective
Pa>50%
Conclusion
Null hypothesis is rejected
Finding
Most of the participants watched entertainment
and recipe channels/shows
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
1. Engro’s back
Olper’s is a brand of ENGRO foods.
ENGRO foods can easily afford research and
development.
ENGRO can distribute the brand through better
channel
2. PR with farmers
Weaknesses
1. Olwell TVC
Olwell ad which is based on Western life style.
Failed to analyze in Pakistan, where practicing
Muslims reside,
Ignoring the ethics, religious beliefs and cultural
values.
Opportunities
1. Increased funding by Government
Government has decided to increase farmers’
funding.
Threats
1 Perception and Price Differentials
Consumers’ perceptions and price differentials can
cause a threat for the company. It is important that
Olper’s comes up to the expectations of the
customers
2 Competitions
For Olper’s it might be difficult to penetrate in a
market where the loyalties exist for such brands as
Nestle and Haleeb.
Recommendation
Advertisements should be aired during these
time slots 9am 12am and evening 7pm -10pm
Advertisement Campaign:
1. The packaged milk users appear confused
about the true meaning of Olper’s media
communication
Reference
From the book
From google.com
From wikipedia