Semana (t) Demanda D Demanda Sin Demanda sin Factor estacional (para

estacionalidad estacionalidad después inicialización)

de la regresión

1 33 47.0 0.7
2 46 48.7 0.9
3 59 55.6 50.4 1.2
4 85 56.4 52.1 1.6
5 36 57.1 53.8 0.7
6 49 57.9 55.5 0.9
7 62 58.6 57.2 1.1
8 88 59.4 58.9 1.5
9 39 60.1 60.6 0.6
10 52 60.9 62.3 0.8
11 65 61.6 64.0 1.0
12 91 62.4 65.7 1.4
13 42 63.1 67.4 0.6
14 55 63.9 69.1 0.8
15 68 70.8 1.0
16 94 72.5 1.3
17
18
19
20

p 4
r 4
Chart Title
100
alpha 0.58 90
beta 0.26 80
gama 0.94 70
60
MAD 1.08 50
40
30
20
10
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
 Chart Title
120.000

100.000

80.000

60.000

40.000

20.000

-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1
 Factor Estacionalidad Nivel Lt Tendencia (Tt) Pronóstico Ft MED
(St)

45.300 1.700
0.651 48.712 2.151 30.578 1.922
0.856 52.195 2.502 43.533 1.967
1.049 55.309 2.663 57.392 1.108
1.444 58.297 2.749 83.691 0.809
0.58 60.925 2.717 35.621 0.121
0.762038745961961 63.644 2.717 48.498 0.002
0.92391928587107 66.479 2.748 61.312 0.188
1.26578910525669 69.169 2.733 87.627 0.127
0.50863713158196 74.099 3.312 36.572 1.928
0.665285325525982 77.410 3.312 51.500 0.000
0.807706911236511 80.220 3.179 65.200 0.700
1.1043296885488 82.560 2.958 92.100 1.600
0.454293268852375 88.898 3.849 38.850 2.650
0.580804316858821 93.378 4.015 53.868 0.632
0.70170569479185 96.698 3.832 68.341 0.841
0.956463578267283 98.922 3.408 96.153 2.653
46.488
61.414
76.589
107.656

Chart Title Chart Title

100
90
80
70 f(x) = 1.7 x + 45.3
60
50
40
30
20
10
-
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
 Chart Title

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
tle

10 12 14 16 18