30/04/2010

NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG

EUR/USD a Greek drama: This pair is under pressure until the bailout amount was established. During the weekend the Eurogroup is going to
discuss the terms. We have to bet that Greece is going to be saved by the bell, there is too much in the playing field to risk the recovery.
Several institutions short the pair in the last minutes of the trading session on Friday, it was a technical decision if you have a look of the four
hours chart, you can see that they were trying to keep the pair inside the falling channel. The thin channel is one hour chart that we are going to
see later. I believe that the American retail traders will short the pair in Sunday taking advantage that the pair is in the upside edge of the channel
and following the Friday strong hands. The analysis of the Eurogroup decision will be considered later by the markets during the Asian and the
European session. It is really important for a Euro rally to break this falling channel.
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010

I believe that the market is going to asses the Eurogroup bailout, and the pair is going to rally, but the question is: what is the limit of that long
position?. Our Fibonacci tool can help us with this. There is a strong resistance around 1.3400 with the convergence of the top of the previous
rally and the 50 % retracement. I think that it is quite close for the average trading range of the pair for two days of gains, and we could later see
a rally to the 61, 8 % retracement where we have another resistance.

This week we have the NFPR and do not believe that the traders would take long positions on Wednesday and Thursday.
If this data is very positive we could see another leg down, we are in a down trend, with the breakout of the 2.010 lows with an objective in the
1.3000
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010

If the Eurogroup decision is well asses by the market we can see a bounce in the 1.3264 area with the almost convergence of the trend and a
strong resistance. We can keep in mind that the 23, 60 % retracement is quite close to protect a long. You have to consider that in the last top we
have the 31, 8 % retracement and a high and it will be difficult for the Asian session this breakout, and may be we have to wait to European
session to surpass this high.
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010

GBP/USD a political hope: The elections have backed the Pound. For the country is better to take the necessary measures with people supporting
them than with a worn government like in Spain. This reason has left the Pound in better position than his neighbour pair, the Euro, against the
Dollar. Here we have the 8 hours chart, with its supports. We can consider that the pair is in a trading range between 1.5150 and 1.5500. The
strong correlation with the Euro could send the Pound to the last high, after the Greek bailout. First we could see a bounce in the 61, 8%
Fibonacci retracement at 1.5245 that’s the trade that we are looking for, with a target around 1.5380 and a stop at 1.5190 for a risk/reward
Ratio of 2.5. Half our position has to be taken out before the sort term downtrend and trail the stop to the entrance. Also we have to achieve it in
three days, because NFPR is for every pair.
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010

The very sort term is not so good. The pair has broken the trend, but if the bailout for Greece is achieved, the risk appetite
will come back.
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010

AUD/JPY after 2.010 top: I follow this pair because is the best carry example, looking for long trends where the traders
can obtain large profits. In short term everything depends in the Japanese futures, and off course the USD/JPY pair. The futures have been drawn
a head and shoulders pattern, that it could be fade, because there is breakout of the falling channel. If that happens, we are going to see a
retracement in the pair until 86.50 or 86.07 where there is convergence of the 61.8 % retracement and a support. We have to be careful because
the GDP data was very strong 3,8 % Q/Q,

but I think that the interest rates will be unchanged because they have a little of deflation. That is what we have to watch out, because if the
inflation grows, the interest rates will do it, making more difficult to obtain dividends from the carry.
NOT AN ORACLE JUST A PERSPECTIVE BLOG 30/04/2010

Our aim for the blog is to help people with forex trading, taking positions, like the pound. I am Technical Analyst, this analysis gives us lot
information when we do not have other, and at the beginning of the trends we have not so much, but the drivers of the market are the
fundamentals.