Metal Industry Indicators

Composite Indexes of Leading and Coincident Indicators of Selected Metal

Industries for January and February—Summary Report
March 18, 2011

Sgd oqhl`qx lds`kr kd`chmf hmcdw hmbqd`rdc 0-4$ hm Edaqt`qx sn 047-6 eqnl ` qduhrdc 045-2 hm I`mt`qx+
`mc hsr 5,lnmsg rlnnsgdc fqnvsg q`sd qnrd sn 01-1$ eqnl ` qduhrdc 0/-4$ hm I`mt`qx- Sgd 5,lnmsg rlnnsgdc
fqnvsg q`sd hr ` bnlontmc `mmt`k q`sd sg`s ld`rtqdr sgd md`q,sdql sqdmc- Trt`kkx ` fqnvsg q`sd `anud *0-/$
rhfm`kr `m hmbqd`rd hm lds`kr `bshuhsx+ `mc ` fqnvsg q`sd adknv ,0-/$ hmchb`sdr ` cnvmstqm hm `bshuhsx- Sgd
gdesx hmbqd`rd hm sgd oqhl`qx lds`kr kd`chmf hmcdw `mc hsr ghfg fqnvsg q`sd rtffdrs sg`s sgd qdbnudqx hm sgd T-R-
oqhl`qx lds`kr hmctrsqx vhkk khjdkx bnmshmtd hm sgd md`q etstqd- Gnvdudq+ fdnonkhshb`k stqlnhk `mc sgd qd`bshnm
sn sgd I`o`mdrd d`qsgpt`jd bntkc khlhs sghr qdbnudqx-

@kk entq ne sgd hmchb`snqr sg`s vdqd `u`hk`akd enq sgd Edaqt`qx hmcdw b`kbtk`shnm hmbqd`rdc- @ qdantmc hm sgd
kdmfsg ne `udq`fd vnqjvddj hm oqhl`qx lds`kr drs`akhrgldmsr l`cd sgd k`qfdrs bnmsqhatshnm+ /-5 odqbdms`fd
onhmsr+ sn sgd hmbqd`rd hm sgd kd`chmf hmcdw- Sgd rsnbj oqhbd hmcdw bnlahmhmf bnmrsqtbshnm `mc e`ql l`bghmdqx
bnlo`mhdr `mc hmctrsqh`k l`bghmdqx bnlo`mhdr bnmshmtdc sn bkhla hm Edaqt`qx+ bnmsqhatshmf /-4 odqbdms`fd
onhmsr sn sgd kd`chmf hmcdw- Sgd TRFR lds`kr oqhbd hmcdw fqnvsg q`sd+ vghbg qnrd enq sgd sghqc bnmrdbtshud
lnmsg+ bnmsqhatsdc /-1 odqbdms`fd onhmsr- Sgd OLH bnmsqhatsdc /-0 odqbdms`fd onhms- Sgd Edaqt`qx kd`chmf
hmcdw rgntkc ad bnmrhcdqdc oqdkhlhm`qx adb`trd nmkx entq ne hsr dhfgs hmchb`snqr vdqd `u`hk`akd+ `mc sgd kd`chmf
hmcdw vhkk khjdkx ad qduhrdc vgdm sgd nsgdq bnlonmdmsr `qd `ccdc mdws lnmsg-

Lds`kr `qd jdx hmotsr hm ctq`akd fnncr l`mte`bstqhmf `mc bnmrsqtbshnm+ vghbg `bbntms enq `klnrs ` pt`qsdq
ne fqnrr cnldrshb oqnctbs ehm`k r`kdr- Sgdqdenqd+ sgd oqhl`qx lds`kr kd`chmf hmcdw `krn fhudr d`qkx rhfm`kr ne
l`inq bg`mfdr hm `bshuhsx enq sgd nudq`kk T-R- dbnmnlx 'Bg`qs 7(-

Sgd rsddk kd`chmf hmcdw cdbqd`rdc /-3$ hm I`mt`qx- @ 0,gntq otkka`bj hm sgd `udq`fd vnqjvddj hm hqnm
`mc rsddk ok`msr v`r ` l`inq bnmsqhatsnq sn sgd cdbkhmd hm sgd kd`chmf hmcdw+ gnvdudq sgd vnqjvddj v`r rshkk
qdk`shudkx knmf- @ qdsqd`s hm sgd hmcdw ne mdv gntrhmf odqlhsr hrrtdc `mc sgd cdbkhmd hm sgd hmek`shnm,`citrsdc
L1 lnmdx rtookx fqnvsg q`sd `krn gdkc sgd kd`chmf hmcdw cnvm hm I`mt`qx- Ld`mvghkd+ sgd qhrhmf rsddk rbq`o
oqhbd fqnvsg q`sd+ sgd R%O rsnbj oqhbd hmcdw enq rsddk bnlo`mhdr+ `mc sgd OLH neerds rnld sgnrd cdbkhmdr- Sgd
ghfg rsddk kd`chmf hmcdw fqnvsg q`sd hr hmchb`shmf bnmshmtdc `bshuhsx fqnvsg hm sgd T-R- rsddk hmctrsqx- Sgd
bnoodq kd`chmf hmcdw cdbkhmdc 0-0$ hm I`mt`qx+ ats hsr fqnvsg q`sd qdl`hmdc hm onrhshud sdqqhsnqx- Lnudldms
`lnmf hsr rhw hmchb`snqr v`r lhwdc+ vhsg sgd qhrhmf R%O rsnbj oqhbd hmcdw enq athkchmf oqnctbsr bnlo`mhdr
l`jhmf sgd nmkx rhy`akd onrhshud bnmsqhatshnm- Edvdq vddjkx gntqr vnqjdc hm mnmedqqntr lds`kr dwbdos
`ktlhmtl lhkkr `mc ` cdbqd`rd hm sgd hmcdw enq mdv gntrhmf odqlhsr hrrtdc hm I`mt`qx vdhfgdc cnvm sgd bnoodq
kd`chmf hmcdw- Sgd rshkk onrhshud bnoodq kd`chmf fqnvsg q`sd rtffdrsr sg`s sgd qdbnudqx hm cnldrshb bnoodq
hmctrsqx `bshuhsx bntkc bnmshmtd hm sgd md`q sdql-

Sgd lds`kr oqhbd kd`chmf hmcdw hmbqd`rdc /-6$ sn 0/7-2 hm I`mt`qx+ sgd k`sdrs lnmsg enq vghbg hs hr
`u`hk`akd+ eqnl ` qduhrdc 0/6-5 hm Cdbdladq- Hsr 5,lnmsg rlnnsgdc fqnvsg q`sd hmbqd`rdc sn ,1-5$ eqnl `
qduhrdc ,4-3$ hm Cdbdladq- Sgqdd ne hsr entq hmchb`snqr hmbqd`rdc hm I`mt`qx- Sgd fqnvsg q`sd ne sgd sq`cd,
vdhfgsdc `udq`fd dwbg`mfd u`ktd ne nsgdq l`inq btqqdmbhdr `f`hmrs sgd T-R- cnkk`q qdrtldc hsr tov`qc bkhla+
`esdq ` aqhde cho hm Cdbdladq- Hs l`cd sgd k`qfdrs onrhshud bnmsqhatshnm+ /-3 odqbdms`fd onhmsr+ sn sgd mds
hmbqd`rd hm sgd kd`chmf hmcdw- Sgd qhrhmf fqnvsg q`sd ne sgd Nqf`mhy`shnm enq Dbnmnlhb Bnnodq`shnm `mc
Cdudknoldms 'NDBC( Sns`k Kd`chmf Hmcdw bnmsqhatsdc /-1 odqbdms`fd onhmsr- Sgd vhcdmhmf xhdkc roqd`c
adsvddm sgd T-R- 0/,xd`q Sqd`rtqx Mnsd `mc sgd edcdq`k etmcr q`sd bnmsqhatsdc /-0 odqbdms`fd onhms- Sgd
bnmsqhatshnm eqnl ` rkhfgs cdbqd`rd hm sgd fqnvsg q`sd ne sgd hmek`shnm,`citrsdc u`ktd ne mdv nqcdqr enq T-R-
mnmedqqntr lds`k oqnctbsr qntmcdc sn ydqn- Sgd lds`kr oqhbd kd`chmf hmcdw rhfm`kr l`inq bg`mfdr hm sgd fqnvsg
q`sd ne mnmedqqntr lds`k oqhbdr `m `udq`fd ne 7 lnmsgr hm `cu`mbd-

Sgd fqnvsg q`sd ne sgd hmek`shnm,`citrsdc u`ktd ne T-R- mnmedqqntr lds`k oqnctbsr hmudmsnqhdr+ vghbg hr `m
hmchb`snq ne rtookx `mc trt`kkx lnudr hmudqrdkx vhsg sgd oqhbd ne lds`kr+ cdbqd`rdc hm I`mt`qx- E`kkhmf
hmudmsnqhdr+ `knmf vhsg sgd hmbqd`rhmf lds`kr oqhbd kd`chmf hmcdw fqnvsg q`sd+ rtffdrs bnmshmtdc lds`kr oqhbd
fqnvsg- Stqlnhk hm sgd Lhcckd D`rs `mc Mnqsg @eqhb` `mc sgd `esdql`sg ne sgd d`qsgpt`jd hm I`o`m vhkk khjdkx
g`ud `m hlo`bs nm lds`kr cdl`mc+ gnvdudq+ hs hr snn rnnm sn cdsdqlhmd sgdhq deedbs nm lds`kr oqhbd fqnvsg hm
sgd md`q sdql-

Sgd odqbdms bg`mfdr eqnl Cdbdladq sn I`mt`qx enq sgd lds`k hmctrsqx bnhmbhcdms hmcdwdr+ vghbg ld`rtqd
btqqdms dbnmnlhb `bshuhsx+ `qd rgnvm adknv- I`mt`qx hr sgd k`sdrs lnmsg enq vghbg sgdrd hmcdwdr `qd `u`hk`akd-

Oqhl`qx Lds`kr /-2$
Rsddk ,/-0$
Bnoodq ,/-4$

S`akdr 0+ 2+ 4+ `mc 6 hcdmshex sgd hmchb`snqr `mc+ enq sgd hmctrsqx hmcdwdr+ rgnv sgd bnmsqhatshnmr ne d`bg
hmchb`snq sn hsr qdrodbshud hmcdw-

Sgd Lds`k Hmctrsqx Hmchb`snqr qdonqs hr oqnctbdc `s sgd T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx- Enq lnqd hmenql`shnm
`ants sgdrd hmcdwdr `mc sgd Lds`k Hmctrsqx Hmchb`snqr lnmsgkx qdonqs+ bnms`bs F`hk I`ldr '6/2,537,3804(+
'd,l`hk+ fi`ldr?trfr-fnu( `s sgd T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx-

Sgd Lds`k Hmctrsqx Hmchb`snqr rtll`qx qdonqs vhsg hmcdwdr enq Edaqt`qx `mc L`qbg hr rbgdctkdc enq
qdkd`rd nm sgd Vnqkc Vhcd Vda `s 0/9// `-l- DCS+ Eqhc`x+ @oqhk 04-
 S`akd 0-
Kd`chmf Hmcdw ne Lds`k Oqhbdr `mc Fqnvsg Q`sdr ne sgd Mnmedqqntr Lds`kr Oqhbd Hmcdw+
Hmudmsnqhdr ne Mnmedqqntr Lds`k Oqnctbsr+ `mc Rdkdbsdc Lds`k Oqhbdr

Rhw,Lnmsg Rlnnsgdc Fqnvsg Q`sdr

Kd`chmf Hmcdw LHH Mnmedqqntr T-R- Mnmedqqntr Lds`k Oqhl`qx Oqhl`qx Rsddk
ne Lds`k Oqhbdr Lds`kr Oqhbd Hmcdw Oqnctbsr Hmudmsnqhdr @ktlhmtl Bnoodq Rbq`o
'0856<0//( '0871#(
1/0/
I`mt`qx 006-1 42-1 ,13-0 35-1 48-/ 85-8
Edaqt`qx 004-4q 35-8 ,05-0 24-2 40-6 74-7
L`qbg 003-5q 47-1 ,05-1 44-/ 55-/ 014-0
@oqhk 001-4 20-4 ,05-4 20-6 23-5 007-4
L`x 0/8-0q 5-8 ,7-3 8-/ 01-2 48-5
Itmd 0/6-6q ,8-1 /-4 ,5-6 ,3-6 24-6
Itkx 0/6-4 7-1 2-7 8-5 0/-7 6-2
@tftrs 0/5-3q 6-8 ,0-0 ,/-0 00-8 14-6
Rdosdladq 0/5-2q 15-4 ,3-0q 13-/ 18-7 21-5
Nbsnadq 0/6-0q 17-3 ,7-3q 07-5 18-3 7-0
Mnudladq 0/5-8q 13-7 ,00-1q 0/-0 18-0 05-7
Cdbdladq 0/6-5q 44-7 ,7-1q 16-1 5/-0 21-/
1/00
I`mt`qx 0/7-2 42-3 ,8-7 17-3 46-/ 56-2
Edaqt`qx M@ 37-8 M@ 18-1 41-2 28-8
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
M@9 Mns `u`hk`akd q9 Qduhrdc

Mnsd9 Sgd bnlonmdmsr ne sgd Kd`chmf Hmcdw ne Lds`k Oqhbdr `qd sgd roqd`c adsvddm sgd T-R- 0/,xd`q Sqd`rtqx Mnsd `mc sgd edcdq`k etmcr
q`sd+ `mc sgd 5,lnmsg rlnnsgdc fqnvsg q`sdr ne sgd cdek`sdc u`ktd ne mdv nqcdqr enq mnmedqqntr lds`k oqnctbsr+ sgd Nqf`mhy`shnm enq
Dbnmnlhb Bnnodq`shnm `mc Cdudknoldms 'NDBC( Sns`k Kd`chmf Hmcdw+ `mc sgd qdbhoqnb`k ne sgd sq`cd,vdhfgsdc `udq`fd dwbg`mfd u`ktd ne sgd
T-R- cnkk`q `f`hmrs nsgdq l`inq btqqdmbhdr- Sgd Lds`k Hmctrsqx Hmchb`snqr 'LHH( Mnmedqqntr Lds`kr Oqhbd Hmcdw ld`rtqdr bg`mfdr hm
dmc,ne,sgd,lnmsg oqhbdr enq oqhl`qx `ktlhmtl+ bnoodq+ kd`c+ `mc yhmb sq`cdc nm sgd Knmcnm Lds`k Dwbg`mfd 'KLD(- Sgd rsddk rbq`o oqhbd trdc
hr sgd oqhbd ne Mn- 0 gd`ux ldkshmf- Hmudmsnqhdr bnmrhrs ne sgd cdek`sdc u`ktd ne ehmhrgdc fnncr+ vnqj hm oqnfqdrr+ `mc q`v l`sdqh`kr enq
T-R-,oqnctbdc mnmedqqntr lds`k oqnctbsr 'M@HBR 2202+ 2203+ % 224818(- Rhw,lnmsg rlnnsgdc fqnvsg q`sdr `qd a`rdc nm sgd q`shn ne sgd
btqqdms lnmsg&r hmcdw nq oqhbd sn hsr `udq`fd nudq sgd oqdbdchmf 01 lnmsgr+ dwoqdrrdc `s ` bnlontmc `mmt`k q`sd-
Rntqbdr9 T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx 'TRFR(: @ldqhb`m Lds`k L`qjds '@LL(: sgd Knmcnm Lds`k Dwbg`mfd 'KLD(: T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t:
sgd Nqf`mhy`shnm enq Dbnmnlhb Bnnodq`shnm `mc Cdudknoldms 'NDBC(: `mc Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc-
 CHART 1.
LEADING INDEX OF METAL PRICES AND GROWTH RATES
OF NONFERROUS METALS PRICE INDEX, INVENTORIES OF
NONFERROUS METAL PRODUCTS, AND SELECTED PRICES 1967 = 100
120

* January
*
*
* * * 110
*
* *
* *
%
Annual Rate * * 100

200 *
Leading Index of Metal Prices
MII Nonferrous (right scale)
Metals Price Index * February
90
100
(left scale)

0
%
Annual Rate
Inverted
-100

-30

% 0
Annual Rate
U.S. Nonferrous Metal 30
200 Products Inventories, 1982$ January
(right scale)
Primary Aluminum Price 60
100 (left scale)

%
-100 February
Annual Rate
200
Primary Copper Price February
(right scale) 100

0
%
Annual Rate -100
200
February
Steel Scrap Price
100
(left scale)

-100
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

Shaded areas are downturns in the nonferrous metals price index growth rate. Asterisks (*) are peaks and
troughs in the economic activity reflected by the leading index of metal prices. Scale for nonferrous metal
products inventories is inverted.

U.S. Geological Survey, March 2011

 Table 2.
The Primary Metals Industry Indexes and Growth Rates

Leading Index Coincident Index

(1977 = 100) Growth Rate (1977 = 100) Growth Rate
2010
March 146.9 16.7 94.8 18.1
April 148.7 16.3 95.8 18.4
May 147.8 11.9 96.6 17.6
June 146.0 6.9 96.5 14.2
July 144.8 3.3 96.1 10.4
August 146.1 3.6 96.0r 8.1r
September 148.0 4.9 96.7 7.6
October 150.0r 6.2r 96.3r 4.9r
November 153.5 9.5r 98.3 7.4r
December 156.4r 12.1r 100.7r 10.6r
2011
January 156.3r 10.5r 101.0 9.8
February 158.7 12.2 NA NA
_________
NA: Not available r: Revised

Note: Growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates based on the ratio of the current month's index to the average index during
the preceding 12 months.

S`akd 2-

Sgd Bnmsqhatshnm ne D`bg Oqhl`qx Lds`kr Hmcdw Bnlonmdms sn sgd Odqbdms Bg`mfd hm sgd
Hmcdw eqnl sgd Oqduhntr Lnmsg



Kd`chmf Hmcdw I`mt`qx Edaqt`qx
0- @udq`fd vddjkx gntqr+ oqhl`qx lds`kr 'M@HBR 220( ,/-2q /-5
1- Vdhfgsdc R%O rsnbj oqhbd hmcdw+ l`bghmdqx+ bnmrsqtbshnm `mc e`ql `mc
hmctrsqh`k 'Cdbdladq 2/+ 0883<0//( /-1q /-4
2- Q`shn ne oqhbd sn tmhs k`anq bnrs 'M@HBR 220( /-0 M@
3- TRFR lds`kr oqhbd hmcdw fqnvsg q`sd /-1q /-1
4- Mdv nqcdqr+ oqhl`qx lds`k oqnctbsr+ 'M@HBR 220 % 224818( 0871# /-0 M@
5- Hmcdw ne mdv oqhu`sd gntrhmf tmhsr `tsgnqhydc ax odqlhs ,/-4 M@
6- Fqnvsg q`sd ne T-R- L1 lnmdx rtookx+ 1//4# ,/-1 M@
7- OLH /-2q /-0
Sqdmc `citrsldms /-/ /-/
^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^
Odqbdms bg`mfd 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf cheedqdmbdr( 0-5q /-3

Bnhmbhcdms Hmcdw Cdbdladq I`mt`qx
0- Hmctrsqh`k oqnctbshnm hmcdw+ oqhl`qx lds`kr 'M@HBR 220( /-8q ,/-1
1- Sns`k dloknxdd gntqr+ oqhl`qx lds`kr 'M@HBR 220( /-5q /-/
2- U`ktd ne rgholdmsr+ oqhl`qx lds`kr oqnctbsr+
'M@HBR 220 % 224818( 0871# /-7q /-3
Sqdmc `citrsldms /-0 /-0
^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^
Odqbdms bg`mfd 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf cheedqdmbdr( 1-3q /-2
Rntqbdr9 Kd`chmf9 0+ Atqd`t ne K`anq Rs`shrshbr: 1+ Rs`mc`qc % Onnq&r `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 2+ T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 3+
Intqm`k ne Bnlldqbd `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 4+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 5+ T-R- Bdmrtr
Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 6+ Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc+ Bnmedqdmbd An`qc+ `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: `mc 7+
Hmrshstsd enq Rtookx L`m`fdldms- Bnhmbhcdms9 0+ Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc: 1+ Atqd`t ne K`anq Rs`shrshbr `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k
Rtqudx: 2+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx- @kk rdqhdr `qd rd`rnm`kkx `citrsdc+ dwbdos 1+ 2+ `mc 3 ne sgd
kd`chmf hmcdw-

M@9 Mns `u`hk`akd q9 Qduhrdc

Mnsd9 @ bnlonmdms&r bnmsqhatshnm+ rgnvm hm S`akdr 2+ 4+ 6+ `mc 8+ ld`rtqdr hsr deedbs+ hm odqbdms`fd onhmsr+ nm sgd odqbdms
bg`mfd hm sgd hmcdw- D`bg lnmsg+ sgd rtl ne sgd bnmsqhatshnmr oktr sgd sqdmc `citrsldms dpt`kr 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf
cheedqdmbdr( sgd hmcdw&r odqbdms bg`mfd eqnl sgd oqduhntr lnmsg-

 CHART 2.
PRIMARY METALS: LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDEXES, 1989-2011 1977=100
170

LEADING * 150
*
* * * 130
1977=100 February
170
* * *
110
150

* 90
130

COINCIDENT
* * *
110 January
*
* * 70
* *
90

*
*
70
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions. Asterisks (*) signify peaks (the end of an expansion) and
troughs (the end of a downturn) in the economic activity reflected by the indexes.

CHART 3.
PRIMARY METALS: LEADING AND COINCIDENT GROWTH RATES, 1989-2011 Percent
30
February
LEADING 20

10

-10

Percent -20

30 -30
COINCIDENT January
20

10

-10

-20

-30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions.
The growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates based on the ratio of the current month's index
to its average level during the preceding 12 months.

U.S. Geological Survey, March 2011

 S`akd 3-
Sgd Rsddk Hmctrsqx Hmcdwdr `mc Fqnvsg Q`sdr



Leading Index Coincident Index


(1977 = 100) Growth Rate (1977 = 100) Growth Rate
1/0/
Edaqt`qx 0/7-/ 7-0 85-1 05-5
L`qbg 00/-7 01-1 87-/ 07-7
@oqhk 000-5 01-/ 87-0 05-8
L`x 00/-6 7-4 88-1 05-2
Itmd 0/6-5 0-6 86-7 0/-4
Itkx 0/5-/ ,0-6 85-/ 3-2
@tftrs 0/5-3 ,0-4 85-3 2-4
Rdosdladq 0/6-4 /-0 86-2q 2-8q
Nbsnadq 0/8-/ 1-/q 86-/ 0-6
Mnudladq 001-/ 5-5 0//-3 6-2q
Cdbdladq 002-2q 7-/q 0/1-6q 0/-6q
1/00
I`mt`qx 001-8 5-2 0/1-5 8-/
^^^^^^^^^^^^
q9 Qduhrdc

Mnsd9 Fqnvsg q`sdr `qd dwoqdrrdc `r bnlontmc `mmt`k q`sdr a`rdc nm sgd q`shn ne sgd btqqdms lnmsg&r hmcdw sn sgd `udq`fd
hmcdw ctqhmf sgd oqdbdchmf 01 lnmsgr-

S`akd 4-
Sgd Bnmsqhatshnm ne D`bg Rsddk Hmcdw Bnlonmdms sn sgd Odqbdms Bg`mfd
hm sgd Hmcdw eqnl sgd Oqduhntr Lnmsg

Kd`chmf Hmcdw Cdbdladq I`mt`qx


0- @udq`fd vddjkx gntqr+ hqnm `mc rsddk lhkkr 'M@HBR 2200 % 2201( /-2q ,/-7
1- Mdv nqcdqr+ hqnm `mc rsddk lhkkr 'M@HBR 2200 % 2201(+ 0871# ,/-4q /-/
2- Rgholdmsr ne gntrdgnkc `ookh`mbdr+ 0871# ,/-1 /-0
3- R%O rsnbj oqhbd hmcdw+ rsddk bnlo`mhdr /-5 /-2
4- Qds`hk r`kdr ne T-R- o`rrdmfdq b`qr `mc khfgs sqtbjr 'tmhsr( /-0 /-0
5- Fqnvsg q`sd ne sgd oqhbd ne rsddk rbq`o '"0 gd`ux ldkshmf+ #.snm( /-1 /-3
6- Hmcdw ne mdv oqhu`sd gntrhmf tmhsr `tsgnqhydc ax odqlhs /-6 ,/-4
7- Fqnvsg q`sd ne T-R- L1 lnmdx rtookx+ 1//4# ,/-0 ,/-1
8- OLH /-/ /-1
Sqdmc `citrsldms /-/ /-/
^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^
Odqbdms bg`mfd 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf cheedqdmbdr( 0-0q ,/-3

Bnhmbhcdms Hmcdw
0- Hmctrsqh`k oqnctbshnm hmcdw+ hqnm `mc rsddk oqnctbsr 'M@HBR 2200 % 2201( 0-/q ,/-2
1- U`ktd ne rgholdmsr+ hqnm `mc rsddk lhkkr
'M@HBR 2200 % 2201(+ 0871# /-5q /-3
2- Sns`k dloknxdd gntqr+ hqnm `mc rsddk lhkkr 'M@HBR 2200 % 2201( /-5q ,/-2
Sqdmc `citrsldms /-0 /-0
^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^
Odqbdms bg`mfd 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf cheedqdmbdr( 1-2q ,/-0
Rntqbdr9 Kd`chmf9 0+ Atqd`t ne K`anq Rs`shrshbr: 1+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 2+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R-
Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 3+ Rs`mc`qc % Onnq&r: 4+ T-R- Atqd`t ne Dbnmnlhb @m`kxrhr `mc @ldqhb`m @tsnlnahkd L`mte`bstqdqr
@rrnbh`shnm: 5+ Intqm`k ne Bnlldqbd `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 6+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 7+
Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc+ Bnmedqdmbd An`qc+ `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: `mc 8+ Hmrshstsd enq Rtookx L`m`fdldms-
Bnhmbhcdms9 0+ Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc: 1+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 2+ Atqd`t ne K`anq Rs`shrshbr `mc
T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx- @kk rdqhdr `qd rd`rnm`kkx `citrsdc+ dwbdos 3 `mc 5 ne sgd kd`chmf hmcdw-

q9 Qduhrdc












 CHART 4.
STEEL: LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDEXES, 1989-2011 1977=100

LEADING * January
* 120
* * *
* * 110

* * * *
* 100
1977=100 *
* 90
120 *
COINCIDENT
110 * 80
*
100
* *
* 70
* * *
90 * *
January
*
80
* *

70
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions. Asterisks (*) signify peaks (the end of an expansion) and
troughs (the end of a downturn) in the economic activity reflected by the indexes.

CHART 5.

STEEL: LEADING AND COINCIDENT GROWTH RATES, 1989-2011

Percent
30
January
LEADING 20

10

-10

-20
Percent
30 -30

COINCIDENT
January
20

10

-10

-20

-30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions.
The growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates based on the ratio of the current month's index
to its average level during the preceding 12 months.

U.S. Geological Survey, March 2011


S`akd 5-
Sgd Bnoodq Hmctrsqx Hmcdwdr `mc Fqnvsg Q`sdr


Leading Index Coincident Index
(1977 = 100) Growth Rate (1977 = 100) Growth Rate
2010
February 121.0 11.7 90.1 2.1
March 124.0 14.5 93.8 10.3
April 124.0 11.8 94.4 10.9
May 121.7 5.7 93.0 6.8
June 119.4 0.3 95.1 9.7
July 118.6 -2.1 96.3 10.1
August 119.1 -2.0 98.0 11.8
September 118.6r -3.0r 95.1 4.3
October 120.3 -0.5 97.0r 7.2r
November 119.8r -1.8r 98.1r 8.0r
December 122.5r 2.5r 97.1r 5.2r
2011
January 121.1 0.5 96.6 3.4
____________
r: Revised
Note: Growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates based on the ratio of the current month's index to the average index
during the preceding 12 months.

S`akd 6-
Sgd Bnmsqhatshnm ne D`bg Bnoodq Hmcdw Bnlonmdms sn sgd Odqbdms Bg`mfd
hm sgd Hmcdw eqnl sgd Oqduhntr Lnmsg

Leading Index December January

0- @udq`fd vddjkx gntqr+ mnmedqqntr lds`kr dwbdos `ktlhmtl
'M@HBR 2203( ,0-0q ,/-8
1- Mdv nqcdqr+ mnmedqqntr lds`k oqnctbsr+ 'M@HBR 2202+ 2203+ %
224818( 0871# /-2q ,/-0
2- R%O rsnbj oqhbd hmcdw+ athkchmf oqnctbsr bnlo`mhdr 0-/ /-3
3- KLD rons oqhbd ne oqhl`qx bnoodq /-6 /-0
4- Hmcdw ne mdv oqhu`sd gntrhmf tmhsr `tsgnqhydc ax odqlhs /-8 ,/-6
5- Roqd`c adsvddm sgd T-R- 0/,xd`q Sqd`rtqx Mnsd `mc
sgd edcdq`k etmcr q`sd /-3 /-0
Sqdmc `citrsldms /-/ /-/
^^^^^^ ^^^^^^
Odqbdms bg`mfd 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf cheedqdmbdr( 1-1q ,0-0

Bnhmbhcdms Hmcdw
0- Hmctrsqh`k oqnctbshnm hmcdw+ oqhl`qx rldkshmf `mc qdehmhmf ne
bnoodq 'M@HBR 220300( /-0q /-/
1- Sns`k dloknxdd gntqr+ mnmedqqntr lds`kr dwbdos `ktlhmtl
'M@HBR 2203( ,0-1q ,/-5
2- Bnoodq qdehmdqr& rgholdmsr 'rgnqs snmr( M@ M@
Sqdmc `citrsldms /-0 /-0
^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^
Odqbdms bg`mfd 'dwbdos enq qntmchmf cheedqdmbdr( ,0-/q ,/-4

^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Rntqbdr9 Kd`chmf9 0+ Atqd`t ne K`anq Rs`shrshbr: 1+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 2+ Rs`mc`qc % Onnq�r: 3+
Knmcnm Lds`k Dwbg`mfd: 4+ T-R- Bdmrtr Atqd`t `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx: 5+ Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc `mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k
Rtqudx- Bnhmbhcdms9 0+ Edcdq`k Qdrdqud An`qc: 1+ Atqd`t ne K`anq Rs`shrshbr: 2+ @ldqhb`m Atqd`t ne Lds`k Rs`shrshbr+ Hmb-
`mc T-R- Fdnknfhb`k Rtqudx- @kk rdqhdr `qd rd`rnm`kkx `citrsdc+ dwbdos 2+ 3+ `mc 5 ne sgd kd`chmf hmcdw-

q9 Qduhrdc M@9 Mns `u`hk`akd

 CHART 6.
COPPER: LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDEXES, 1989-2011 1977=100
150

LEADING

* 130

* *
1977=100 *
* 110

150 * January
*
130 * 90

*
110 * January
*
COINCIDENT *
90

*
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions. Asterisks (*) signify peaks (the end of an expansion) and
troughs (the end of a downturn) in the economic activity reflected by the indexes.

CHART 7.
COPPER: LEADING AND COINCIDENT GROWTH RATES, 1989-2011 Percent
30

LEADING 20

10

0
January
-10

Percent -20
30
-30
20 January
COINCIDENT
10

-10

-20

-30
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions.
The growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates based on the ratio of the current month's index
to its average level during the preceding 12 months.

U.S. Geological Survey, March 2011

 Chart 8.
PRIMARY METALS LEADING INDEX AND COMPOSITE INDEXES

OF LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY

1977=100

175
PRIMARY METALS February
LEADING INDEX 150

(USGS)
125

100

U.S.LEADING INDEX (CB)

2004=100

110
100 February
90

80

2004=100
110

U.S. COINCIDENT INDEX 100

(CB)
February
90

80

89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Year
Shaded areas are business cycle recessions.
Sources: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Conference Board (CB).
March 2011