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MES t Yt At Tt St Yt'

-2 1
-1 1
0 1
ENERO 1 77 77 0 1
FEBRERO 2 105 82.2045346 1.52852116 1.19670581 77
MARZO 3 89 84.7120555 1.81604386 1.03590612 83.7330558
ABRIL 4 135 95.5378738 4.46212692 1.29300121 86.5280994
MAYO 5 100 100.000001 4.46212688 1 100.000001
JUNIO 6 125 104.460507 4.46165086 1.19664812 125.010435
JULIO 7 115 109.310967 4.57584032 1.04735397 112.833129
AGOSTO 8 155 115.000083 4.90279851 1.3318909 147.255779
SEPTIEMBRE 9 120 119.920933 4.90810026 1.00046769 119.902881
OCTUBRE 10 145 124.14924 4.70845142 1.17629033 149.376429
NOVIEMBRE 11 135 128.864858 4.71055637 1.04753496 134.959615
DICIEMBRE 12 170 132.471806 4.38643712 1.29741691 177.90788
ENERO 136.922251
FEBRERO 166.144751
MARZO 152.553686
ABRIL 194.635312

PEMA
ERROR L 4
ALPHA 0.18587624
BETA 0.29369027
GAMMA 0.70935642

0.26666667
0.05917915
0.35905112
7.66421E-09
8.34816E-05
0.01884235
0.04996271
0.00080933
0.03018227
0.00029915
0.04651694

8%
MES t Yt At Tt St Yt'
-2 1
-1 1
0 1
ENERO 1 60 60 0 1
FEBRERO 2 234 61.6283211 1.62832115 3.79695561 60
MARZO 3 163 64.1900574 2.5617362 2.53933408 63.2566423
ABRIL 4 50 66.5950275 2.40497011 0.75080681 66.7517936
MAYO 5 69 68.9999976 2.40497013 1.00000003 68.9999976
JUNIO 6 266 71.392345 2.39234744 3.72588966 271.121493
JULIO 7 188 73.7870364 2.39469134 2.54787303 187.363984
AGOSTO 8 59 76.2041911 2.41715473 0.77423563 57.1977598
SEPTIEMBRE 9 84 78.6716802 2.46748905 1.06772856 78.6213486
OCTUBRE 10 310 81.1584698 2.48678967 3.81968759 302.315591
NOVIEMBRE 11 212 83.641155 2.48268517 2.5346374 213.117501
DICIEMBRE 12 64 86.0914453 2.45029031 0.74339558 66.6801457
ENERO 94.5385401
FEBRERO 347.561112
MARZO 236.84239
ABRIL 71.28614

PEMA
ERROR L 4
ALPHA 0.00935817
BETA 1
GAMMA 1

0.74358974
0.61192244
0.33503587
3.51934E-08
0.01925373
0.00338306
0.03054644
0.06403156
0.02478841
0.00527123
0.04187728

0.1708818
1
promedio 2
año1 año2 año3 3
1 60 69 84 4
2 234 266 310
3 163 188 212
4 50 59 64
Promedio 126.75 145.5 167.5 promedio de promedio 146.583333

factores estacionales
A0 176.833333 0.51575931
T0 5.5 1.92065663
1.28010471
0.37641154

Dt Ft Tt It normalizacion FT
-3 0.509694640740495
-2 1.86832873108251
-1 1.25112165984328
0 176.833333 5.5 0.370854968333723
1 60 120.74041 4.55667353 0.49693388 0.49850183660625
2 234 125.248033 4.55592229 1.86829282 1.87418778941533 234.096141
3 163 130.260678 4.56291723 1.25133695 1.25528525807929 162.400539
4 50 134.823595 4.56291723 0.37085497 0.372025115899131 50.0000002
5 69 135.562832 4.50435565 0.50898907 0.508665873160132 69.4844323
6 266 142.26535 4.53802161 1.86974551 1.86855825741317 262.512213
7 188 150.103213 4.58856033 1.25247153 1.25167623073851 184.280109
8 59 158.885997 4.65279697 0.37133543 0.371099638688195 57.5492248
9 84 164.745343 4.67127587 0.50987784 0.510164052958184 83.1866034
10 310 166.087098 4.6202826 1.86649055 1.86753827200646 316.564822
11 212 169.506869 4.60189615 1.25068678 1.25138883108746 213.670371
12 64 172.645992 4.57949305 0.37070076 0.370908843947899 64.6116997
13 90.4140716
14 330.975375
15 221.777992
16 65.7344996
5 9
6 10
7 11
8 12

actores estacionales promedios Normalización alpha 0.9532178


0.49879518 0.52390852 0.51282101 0.5096946407405 beta 0.0153155
1.84936269 1.86934673 1.87978869 1.86832873108251 gamma 1
1.25892857 1.23735409 1.25879579 1.25112165984328
0.3810549 0.36192271 0.37312972 0.37085496833372
4.0245352 4

ERROR PEMA

60
-0.09614136 0% 234
0.59946058 0% 163
-2.1396E-07 0% 50
-0.48443228 1% 69
3.48778732 1% 266
3.71989148 2% 188
1.45077521 2% 59
0.81339655 1% 84
-6.56482178 2% 310
-1.67037109 1% 212
-0.61169969 1% 64

PEMA 1%
60 92.9343228
234 234.096141
163 162.400539
50 50.0000002
69 69.4844323
266 262.512213
188 184.280109 Chart Title
59 57.5492248 350
84 83.1866034 316.56482177783
300
310 316.564822
262.512212682221
212 213.670371 250
234.096141364688
213.670371
64 64.6116997 200
184.280108516072
90.4140716 162.400539416355
150
330.975375
221.777992 100 92.9343228283502
83.1866034480491
69.4844322831274 64.611
65.7344996 50 50.0000002139635 57.5492247853868

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Column B Column C
Chart Title
330.97537545482
316.564821777838

262.512212682221

213.670371089048 221.777992139433
184.280108516072
6355

83.1866034480491 90.4140715627613
.4844322831274 64.6116996878421 65.7344996487142
002139635 57.5492247853868

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Column B Column C
1
promedio 2
año1 año2 año3 3
1 146 192 272 4
2 96 127 155
3 59 79 98
4 133 186 219
Promedio 108.5 146 186 promedio de promedio 146.833333

factores estacionales
A0 201.833333 1.58983666
T0 10 0.94271686
0.52757079
1.09165527

Dt Ft Tt It normalizacion FT
-3 1.51719566099977
-2 0.88182718599742
-1 0.510873668456745
0 201.833333 10 1.09010348454607
1 146 119.350805 8.5792221 1.22328459 1.33462521059497
2 96 112.6779 8.34490881 0.85198606 0.929531924187962 112.812175
3 59 116.595309 8.27689063 0.50602379 0.552080939648914 61.8273661
4 133 122.579852 8.24167407 1.08500702 1.18376192556815 136.12362
5 192 127.403719 8.18916746 1.50702037 1.501826597427 174.597707
6 127 142.333896 8.2927273 0.89226814 0.889193039439534 126.037917
7 79 153.834969 8.34201604 0.51353733 0.511767487790882 83.1580876
8 186 168.936199 8.44585557 1.10100737 1.09721287534259 191.97894
9 272 178.898914 8.46915857 1.52041169 1.52172702350446 266.397088
10 155 178.090735 8.32663396 0.87034286 0.871095810553596 166.606386
11 98 190.746071 8.39313435 0.51377205 0.51421652453411 95.4023488
12 219 200.546527 8.41475456 1.09201592 1.09296064140784 218.4981
13 317.98203
14 182.025297
15 107.451344
16 228.386457
5 9
6 10
7 11
8 12

actores estacionales promedios Normalización alpha 0.8


1.45638432 1.58292919 1.54305006 1.51719566099977 beta 0.01536266
0.89541716 0.85242896 0.89685433 0.88182718599742 gamma 1
0.52030735 0.51086012 0.51957942 0.51087366845675
1.14933059 1.08505367 1.10867984 1.09010348454607
4.06816365 4

ERROR PEMA

60
-16.8121754 18% 234
-2.82736607 5% 163
-3.1236199 2% 50
17.402293 9% 69
0.9620829 1% 266
-4.15808761 5% 188
-5.97894045 3% 59
5.60291231 2% 84
-11.6063863 7% 310
2.59765116 3% 212
0.50189982 0% 64

PEMA 5%

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