Está en la página 1de 40

Peak Oil & Wind Power in NY for 2011-2031

By David Bradley and Derek Bateman March 2011 Tantalum73@verizon.net and bateman@ecc.edu

1

Apocalyptic Horsemen?
• Peak Oil implies rapid future oil price increases • Can lead to severe price based rationing,
– price spikes, – no oil access and – subsequent “problems”

• Global Warming cause by (mostly) CO2 pollution from fossil fuel burning • Combined, they make for a wicked duo • Were not the original four Horsemen enough?
2

Oh oh!
• The United States is presently environmentally & economically unsustainable, energy-wise Particularly regarding Peak Oil and Global Climate Change Won’t be able to fix this without a significant green energy and green jobs effort This requires getting energy pricing right
3

Peak Oil
• • • • Where production rate is at or near a maximum level Can’t be increased even if prices rise significantly Leads to “Demand Destruction”/big price rises Occurs when 50% of “Ultimately Recoverable Resource” (URR) has been produced

4

Peak Oil is:
• A liquid fuels problem • Transportation problem

5

Hubert Linearization
• We are at 50% of URR
(URR = Ultimately Recoverable Reserves)

6

Global Climate Change
• CO2 pollution = CO2 generated by burning fossil fuels

7

Global Climate Change
• CO2 into atmosphere is greater than the ocean and land can absorb • Heat from sun retained is greater than the heat radiated into space • Net result melting ice and warming planet

8

What it is
• Global warming is a long-term problem of: climate, weather, rainfall, ocean level/acidification • Peak Oil is a short-term problem of
– Economic, food, transportation, etc…

9

UK’s Stern Report
• Addressing Peak Oil will require a 20 “WWII style” mobilization
– It could cost 3% - 4% to prepare for Peak Oil – Or a loss of 10% to 12% of GDP if we wait until the threat hits

10

Peak Oil Challenge
• What happens when gasoline/diesel gets above $5.00 to $20.00 a gallon? • Transportation gets expensive • Distance becomes a larger expense • Food prices rise • “Global economy” forced to get more local
11

Peak Oil Economic Effect
• • • • Acts as a regressive “sales tax” Less disposable income for most of us Less demand for other things Exports money from US go to oil imports • Less tax revenue for governments
– Education, health etc…
12

Export Land Model - 1
It is the export rate of oil that tends to set world oil prices

13

Export Land Model - 2

14

The problem in your side mirror is closer than you might think!

Peak Oil related - both are problems that need to be dealt with

15

Export Land Model - 3
• At present (2011) 41 mbd exported
- 50% of all production

• In 2016 < 30 mbd exported - 40% of all production • More oil customers, less oil - do the math…..
16

ELM Predictions
• Peak production now means higher prices • Higher prices do not give greater production • Higher prices will not stop decline in exported oil rates/quantity available to be bought • Less supply and more consumers will mean “demand destruction” even higher prices
17

Oil is:
• • • • Oil is 45% of US CO2 pollution source Oil is $1 billion/day import habit Oil imports are major drag on our economy Stopping oil imports = major economic growth opportunity
– Means replacing all oil imports ASAP – Means eventually replacing all oil use – U.S. supplies are still depleting
18

China & India & Coal
• China and India will set coal prices - Coal production is peaking in China, too • India is a major coal importer • US coal that can be exported will have a “world” price, and will no longer be cheap • 2008 - US spot coal -> $150/ton
19

Feed-In Tariffs (FITs)
• Prices = production cost plus reasonable profit • Different prices for different sources • Stable prices until capital investment paid off • Cost for capital > usually 75% of total operating cost • Can be subsidy free; no need for “carbon prices”
20

Merit Order Effect (MOE)
• Wind can lower prices in a mixed renewable/polluting energy marginal price system (NYISO) • More wind tends to give lower average prices • Does “haircut” on windfall profits of “paid off” polluting energy facilities (coal, nukes); savings go to consumers
21

FITs Work!
• Cheaper than subsidy/quota system • No subsidies needed • Priority access is all that is needed as polluting energy replacement mechanism • Low risk = lower cost financing • 50% wind, 75% PV, 95% biogass • Best system yet found for stimulating job growth/technology for renewables

22

New York State of Mind

Sheldon Wind Farm, Wyoming County, NY

23

New York Renewable Electricity Pricing
• • • • • • • • Existing hydro - lowest production cost Commercial on-shore wind Biogas landfill gas Biomass biogas without co-generation Hydrokinetic, wave and tidal generation Off-shore wind turbines Small scale wind turbines Solar PV - highest production cost

24

Electricity Requirements
• • • • • • 16 GW existing (3 GW present) 10 GW natural gas replacement (heat) 4 GW “electro-fuels” 2 GW electric/plug-in hybrid cars 2 GW energy storage (pumped hydro) Total = 32 GW average usage (34 GW required to deliver 32 GW)
25

Electricity Sources
• • • • • 18 GW on-shore wind = 54 GW Capacity 9 GW off-shore = 22.5 GW capacity 3 GW hydro 2 GW tidal 2 GW biomass

• LOTS OF JOBS!
• (4 million job-years manufacturing and installation plus multiplier effects, average total jobs (20 yrs) ~ 1 million)
26

Electricity Capital Costs
• • • • • • On-shore 54 GW = $135 billion Off-shore 22.5 GW = $90 billion Tidal 2 GW = $20 billion Biomass 2 GW = $4 billion Pumped Hydro 20 GW = $22 billion Total = $271 billion (over an ~20 year period)
27

Renewable Electricity Costs
• • • • • 32 GW delivered = 280,512 GWhr/year Capital = $271 billion Annual amortization costs = $21.7 billion O & M = $5.4 billion Total $27.1 billion or 9.6 cents Kwh
– Initial costs will be cheaper as the lower capital cost technologies are Installed first
• This was the 2008 New York City/Long Island price for generated electricity
28

Liquid Fuels Approach A 50% by 50% Plan
• Double gas mileage for same vehicle miles traveled per year (vmty) - from 22 mpg to ~ 44 mpg – Drops liquid fuel consumption by 50% • Cut by fuel consuming car vmty by 50% – Drops the remaining fuel consumption by 50% • 25% of original fuel consumption rate • Current liquid fuel consumption not possible to supply with biofuels, nationwide OR statewide
29

New York Current Liquid Fuel Consumption Rates
• 130 million barrels per year (mby) gasoline • 40 mby diesel (cars, trucks, trains, heating oil) • 30 mby kerosene (jet fuel, heating oil) – Trucks to trains will reduce diesel usage – Trains to electric trains will serve freight and passenger use – Airplane usage will drop precipitously – More rail passenger traffic - from short haul air
30

Results of 50% x 50%:
• Gasoline usage drops to 32 mby
– Equivalent to 48 mby ethanol (EtOH)

• Diesels can be replaced with high compression ethanol (25 to 1) • Some diesels can be ammonia powered
– You can get greater efficiency with high compression engines
31

Biofuels Plan - 1
• Grow 375 million bushels/year corn on 2.2 million acres/170 bushels per acre • Needs 219,000 tons per year ammonia (NH3) • Also makes 7.875 million tons/year stover/corn cobs (75% of that grown) • Use 25% of stover (2.625 m tons/yr) as fuel for heating corn fermentation plants • Makes 25 mby EtOH, 3.3 million tons/yr DDGS (30 wt% protein) 32

Biofuels - 2
• Make 12 mby EtOH from stover • Make 10.5 mby from hydrogenating CO2 from corn fermentation • Make 4.5 mby from hydrogenating CO2 from stover (cellulosic ethanol) • Needs 3.4 GW electricity to make the H2 from the H2O raw material • NH3 needs 219 MW for its H2 • EtOH fermentation plants need 110 MW
33

Estimated Capital Costs – Liquid Fuels
• EtOH fermentation from corn kernels = $1.5 billion (9 new plants) • EtOH from stover = $2.5 billion (10 plants) • EtOH from CO2 and H2 = $4 billion (10 plants)
• Total = $8.5 billion (including $0.5 billion NH3 plants)
34

Estimated Fuel Production Costs
• EtOH by fermentation = $2.20/gal • EtOH cellulosic = $4.00/gal • EtOH via H2 = $6.00/gal
– The low-cost technologies would be installed first – The higher priced ones could be installed as petroleum price rises justify
35

Summary
• Tremendous stimulus for manufacturing • Tremendous boost for rural areas – Fuel crops, fuel manufacturing – Stover – Wind turbine lease income • Provide stable and predictable electricity prices • Eliminates all polluting electricity sources • Eliminates money bleed for fossil fuel imports • Path to eliminate petroleum usage/imports
36

Conclusion
• It is possible to make New York State renewably powered in a generation • It can’t happen with marginal pricing for energy (electricity and liquid fuels) • It can’t happen when polluting energy sources set the prices for renewables • For electricity without sensible pricing (FITs) renewable electricity can’t happen in NY, USA • If we don’t get renewable electricity based, our economy stagnates and declines 37

Merit Order Explanation 1

38

Merit Order Explanation 2

39

Any Questions?

Bard 5 MW, Germany

Enercon 7 MW, Belgium

40