Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.05571091
Coeficiente d 0.00310371
R^2 ajustado-0.01408416
Error típico 7.9731273
Observacione 60

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 11.4793137 11.4793137 0.18057538 0.67245162
Residuos 58 3687.10402 63.570759
Total 59 3698.58333

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 18.3536723 2.08465768 8.80416602 2.79465E-12 14.1807766 22.526568 14.1807766
Variable X 1 -0.02525702 0.05943644 -0.42494161 0.67245162 -0.14423197 0.09371794 -0.14423197

Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico para YResiduos
1 18.3284153 10.6715847
2 18.3031583 -9.30315828
3 18.2779013 4.72209873
4 18.2526443 8.74735575
5 18.2273872 2.77261276
6 18.2021302 3.79786978
7 18.1768732 0.82312679
8 18.1516162 3.84838381
9 18.1263592 -11.1263592
10 18.1011022 -2.10110216
11 18.0758451 9.92415486
12 18.0505881 7.94941187
13 18.0253311 -9.02533111
14 18.0000741 -3.00007409
15 17.9748171 0.02518292
16 17.9495601 0.05043994
17 17.924303 2.07569695
18 17.899046 -11.899046
19 17.873789 9.12621098
20 17.848532 -12.848532
21 17.823275 -4.82327498
22 17.798018 -4.79801797
23 17.772761 -5.77276095
24 17.7475039 -12.7475039
25 17.7222469 -7.72224692
26 17.6969899 -2.6969899
27 17.6717329 -12.6717329
28 17.6464759 9.35352413
29 17.6212189 7.37878114
30 17.5959618 9.40403816
31 17.5707048 9.42929517
32 17.5454478 -2.54544781
33 17.5201908 -8.52019079
34 17.4949338 8.50506622
35 17.4696768 -1.46967676
36 17.4444197 3.55558025
37 17.4191627 4.58083727
38 17.3939057 8.60609429
39 17.3686487 1.6313513
40 17.3433917 -3.34339168
41 17.3181347 6.68186533
42 17.2928777 -9.29287765
43 17.2676206 10.7323794
44 17.2423636 -13.2423636
45 17.2171066 11.7828934
46 17.1918496 -10.1918496
47 17.1665926 7.83340743
48 17.1413356 4.85866444
49 17.1160785 -1.11607854
50 17.0908215 -9.09082152
51 17.0655645 -9.06556451
52 17.0403075 -10.0403075
53 17.0150505 -6.01505048
54 16.9897935 11.0102065
55 16.9645364 11.0354636
56 16.9392794 8.06072057
57 16.9140224 -1.91402241
58 16.8887654 0.1112346
59 16.8635084 7.13649162
60 16.8382514 -9.83825137
Superior 95.0%
22.526568
0.09371794
consumo de gas refrigerante diario en el departamento de polizas y servicios
PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE
Dia Kg gas R22 Pronostico
N=3 Xt Xt et=Xt-Xt Abs(et)
1 29
2 9 35.00 ME=
3 23 MAE=
4 27 20.33 6.67 6.67
5 21 19.67 1.33 1.33 30.00
6 22 23.67 -1.67 1.67
7 19 23.33 -4.33 4.33
8 22 20.67 1.33 1.33 25.00
9 7 21.00 -14.00 14.00
10 16 16.00 0.00 0.00
11 28 15.00 13.00 13.00 20.00

12 26 17.00 9.00 9.00

13 9 23.33 -14.33 14.33
15.00
14 15 21.00 -6.00 6.00
15 18 16.67 1.33 1.33
16 18 14.00 4.00 4.00
10.00
17 20 17.00 3.00 3.00
18 6 18.67 -12.67 12.67
19 27 14.67 12.33 12.33 5.00
20 5 17.67 -12.67 12.67
21 13 12.67 0.33 0.33
22 13 15.00 -2.00 2.00 0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1
23 12 10.33 1.67 1.67
24 5 12.67 -7.67 7.67
25 10 10.00 0.00 0.00 PROMEDIO MOVI
26 15 9.00 6.00 6.00 ME=
27 5 10.00 -5.00 5.00 MAE=
28 27 10.00 17.00 17.00
29 25 15.67 9.33 9.33
30 27 19.00 8.00 8.00
31 27 26.33 0.67 0.67
32 15 26.33 -11.33 11.33
33 9 23.00 -14.00 14.00
34 26 17.00 9.00 9.00
35 16 16.67 -0.67 0.67
36 21 17.00 4.00 4.00
37 22 21.00 1.00 1.00
38 26 19.67 6.33 6.33
39 19 23.00 -4.00 4.00
40 14 22.33 -8.33 8.33
41 24 19.67 4.33 4.33
42 8 19.00 -11.00 11.00
43 28 15.33 12.67 12.67
44 4 20.00 -16.00 16.00
45 29 13.33 15.67 15.67
46 7 20.33 -13.33 13.33
47 25 13.33 11.67 11.67
48 22 20.33 1.67 1.67
49 16 18.00 -2.00 2.00
50 8 21.00 -13.00 13.00
51 8 15.33 -7.33 7.33
52 7 10.67 -3.67 3.67
53 11 7.67 3.33 3.33
54 28 8.67 19.33 19.33
55 28 15.33 12.67 12.67
56 25 22.33 2.67 2.67
57 15 27.00 -12.00 12.00
58 17 22.67 -5.67 5.67
59 24 19.00 5.00 5.00
60 7 18.67 -11.67 11.67
61 16.00
 PROMEDIO MOVIL
0.52
6.47

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

PROMEDIO MOVIL SIMPLE

-0.18
7.35
consumo de gas refrigerante diario en el departamento de polizas y servicios
SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL
Kg gas R22 Pronostico
Dia
Xt Xt et=Xt-Xt Abs(et)
1 29 29.00 Alpha
2 9 29.00 -20.00 20 0.3
3 23 23.00 0.00 0
35
4 27 23.00 4.00 4
5 21 24.20 -3.20 3.2
30
6 22 23.24 -1.24 1.24
7 19 22.87 -3.87 3.868
25
8 22 21.71 0.29 0.2924
9 7 21.80 -14.80 14.79532
20
10 16 17.36 -1.36 1.356724
11 28 16.95 11.05 11.0502932
15
12 26 20.26 5.74 5.73520524
13 9 21.99 -12.99 12.98535633
14 15 18.09 -3.09 3.089749432 10
15 18 17.16 0.84 0.837175397
16 18 17.41 0.59 0.586022778 5
17 20 17.59 2.41 2.410215945
18 6 18.31 -12.31 12.31284884 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1
19 27 14.62 12.38 12.38100581
20 5 18.33 -13.33 13.33329593
21 13 14.33 -1.33 1.333307152 SUAVIZACION EXPON
22 13 13.93 -0.93 0.933315006 ME=
23 12 13.65 -1.65 1.653320504 MAE=
24 5 13.16 -8.16 8.157324353
25 10 10.71 -0.71 0.710127047
26 15 10.50 4.50 4.502911067
27 5 11.85 -6.85 6.847962253
28 27 9.79 17.21 17.20642642
29 25 14.96 10.04 10.0444985
30 27 17.97 9.03 9.031148947
31 27 20.68 6.32 6.321804263
32 15 22.57 -7.57 7.574737016
33 9 20.30 -11.30 11.30231591
34 26 16.91 9.09 9.088378862
35 16 19.64 -3.64 3.638134796
36 21 18.55 2.45 2.453305642
37 22 19.28 2.72 2.71731395
38 26 20.10 5.90 5.902119765
39 19 21.87 -2.87 2.868516165
40 14 21.01 -7.01 7.007961315
41 24 18.91 5.09 5.094427079
42 8 20.43 -12.43 12.43390104
43 28 16.70 11.30 11.29626927
44 4 20.09 -16.09 16.09261151
45 29 15.26 13.74 13.73517194
46 7 19.39 -12.39 12.38537964
47 25 15.67 9.33 9.330234251
48 22 18.47 3.53 3.531163976
49 16 19.53 -3.53 3.528185217
50 8 18.47 -10.47 10.46972965
51 8 15.33 -7.33 7.328810756
52 7 13.13 -6.13 6.130167529
53 11 11.29 -0.29 0.291117271
54 28 11.20 16.80 16.79621791
55 28 16.24 11.76 11.75735254
56 25 19.77 5.23 5.230146776
57 15 21.34 -6.34 6.338897257
58 17 19.44 -2.44 2.43722808
59 24 18.71 5.29 5.293940344
60 7 20.29 -13.29 13.29424176
61 16.31
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 3334 35 36 37 38 39 40 4142 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60

SUAVIZACION EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

-0.72
7.04345314651084
1 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60